BUSINESS & POLITICS IN THE MUSLIM WORLD

Global Opinion Report 225.

May 20-26, 2012

Presentation: May 30, 2012

INTRODUCTORY NOTE

This week report consists of thirty surveys. Four of these are multi-country studies while the rest of twenty six are national surveys from various countries.

225-31 Commentary: Suffering in South Asia including India and Pakistan, Highest in

Region

Highest suffering is in Nepal and Afghanistan; lowest in Thailand

May 28, 2012

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- South Asians rated their lives worse in 2011 than most residents in other parts of Asia. At least one in five residents in Nepal (31%), Afghanistan (30%), India (24%), Sri Lanka (22%), and Pakistan (21%) rated their lives poorly enough to be considered "suffering." Bangladesh is the only South Asian country where suffering is significantly lower than its regional neighbors, at 10%.

Gallup classifies respondents as "thriving," "struggling," or "suffering" according to how they rate their current and future lives on a ladder scale with steps numbered from 0 to 10 based on the Cantril Self-Anchoring Striving Scale. Respondents are not asked to classify their lives according to these labels. Those who rate their present life a 7 or higher on the ladder and their life in five years an 8 or higher are classified as thriving, while those who rate both dimensions a 4 or lower are considered suffering. Respondents whose ratings fall in between are considered struggling.

The relatively high levels of suffering in South Asia likely reflect the economic turmoil, war, conflict, domestic terrorism, or separatist movements that have afflicted many of these countries in the past decade. Additionally, most South Asian countries currently have higher levels of unemployment and corruption and lower levels of college education than the rest of Asia.

Relatively low levels of suffering in Bangladesh may run counter to extremely poor economic conditions in the nation. According to 2011 World Bank data, GDP per capita in Bangladesh is the third lowest in Asia, slightly above Nepal and Afghanistan -- countries with the highest levels of suffering in Asia, at 31% and 30%, respectively.

That Bangladeshis are less likely than residents in other South Asian countries to rate their lives poorly enough to be considered suffering may be related to Gallup's findings about education in the country. Educational attainment in Bangladesh is the highest in South Asia -- 50% of the adult population has at least secondary or higher education. Gallup also finds 82% of Bangladeshis are satisfied with their schools, perhaps providing a relatively young Bangladeshi population with optimism for a bright future.

One in Seven Hong Kong Residents Are Suffering

Hong Kong's 14% suffering rate may be surprising, given the region's fairly quick recovery from the global economic downturn and its high GDP per capita. Hong Kong residents, however, are beset with several problems that may contribute to them having one of the highest suffering rates in East Asia. A slim majority (54%) say they are dissatisfied with the availability of affordable housing, the highest percentage in East Asia. Also, when asked if they are satisfied or dissatisfied with the quality of air, 30% of Hong Kong residents say they are satisfied -- consistently one of the lowest percentages of satisfaction with air quality that Gallup measures worldwide.

In Southeast Asia, Suffering Is Lowest in Thailand; Highest in Cambodia

Although Thailand experienced flooding in October and November 2010 that badly damaged the manufacturing centers north of Bangkok and stunted the nation's recovery from the global recession, 1% of the population rated their lives poorly enough to be considered suffering in 2011. This is the lowest rate in Asia and one of the lowest rates in the world. This low level of suffering may relate to the low unemployment levels in Thailand, which Gallup estimates to be less than 5%.

After decades of conflict and political upheaval, it is not surprising that Cambodia is at the opposite end of the wellbeing spectrum in Southeast Asia, with more than one-quarter of Cambodians (26%) considered suffering. Demands for Cambodian exports lessened considerably during the economic downturn and GDP is among the lowest in Asia.

Implications

Asian countries are vastly diverse in terms of economic conditions, size, population, governance, culture, language, and religion; therefore, each country has a unique path toward improved wellbeing. Governments should carefully examine the root causes of suffering and create solutions for their citizens. Although there is no one-size-fits-all solution, policymakers cannot ignore some important building blocks of a thriving population: strong governance, available employment, satisfactory income levels, good health, and available education.

For complete data sets or custom research from the more than 150 countries Gallup continually surveys, please contact SocialandEconomicAnalysis@gallup.com or call 202.715.3030.

Survey Methods

Results are based on face-to-face and telephone interviews with approximately 1,000 adults, aged 15 and older, conducted between April 5 and Dec. 4, 2011, in the 20 countries identified in the article. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error ranges from ± 2 percentage points to ±4 percentage points. The margin of error reflects the influence of data weighting. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

SUMMARY OF POLLS

Palestinians Want Immediate Elections, Also Want Negotiations with Israel

More than eight in ten Palestinians want immediate elections. Palestinians increasingly (71%) think that things in the country are going in the wrong direction. Over half of Palestinians support return to negotiations with Israel. (AWRAD)

May 22, 2012

Egypt on the Eve of Elections: Economy, Democracy Are Both Priorities

On the eve of the first presidential election of the post-Mubarak era, Egyptians remain hopeful about the future of their country, and they strongly desire both an improved economy and the democratic freedoms they were denied under the previous regime. (Pew Research Center)

May 23, 2012

Most Egyptians Expect a Fair, Honest Election

Eighty-six percent of Egyptians that Gallup surveyed in April say they plan to vote in the presidential election that begins Wednesday, and nearly as many (82%) expect the election to be fair and honest. (Gallup USA)

May 22, 2012

SOUTH ASIA

Suffering in South Asia Highest in Region (Multi-country study)

South Asians rated their lives worse in 2011 than most residents in other parts of Asia. At least one in five residents in Nepal (31%), Afghanistan (30%), India (24%), Sri Lanka (22%), and Pakistan (21%) rated their lives poorly enough to be considered "suffering." Bangladesh is the only South Asian country where suffering is significantly lower than its regional neighbors, at 10%. (Gallup USA)

May 28, 2012

SOUTHEAST ASIA

Most Malaysians want the electoral roll cleaned before elections

Most Malaysians want the electoral roll cleaned before elections BANGI – A survey among voters in Peninsula Malaysia found that nearly all – 92% of voters want the electoral roll to be cleaned up before elections are held. (Merdeka Center)

May 25, 2012

Philippines: Adult Unemployment At Record-High 34.4%

The First Quarter 2012 Social Weather Survey, fielded over March 10-13, 2012, found adult unemployment at a new record-high 34.4%, or an estimated 13.8 million, surpassing the previous record-high of 34.2% in February 2009. (SWS)

May 23, 2012

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Deputy President Motlanthe Has Slightly Higher Approval Levels Than President Zuma

Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe’s approval levels amongst metro adults in April 2012 are slightly higher than those of President Jacob Zuma: 49% of metro adults approve of the way Deputy President Motlanthe is doing his job compared with 46% in the case of president Zuma. However, there are more fence sitters in the case of the Deputy President. (TNS South Africa)

May 11, 2012

After A Rise In February, The President’s Approval Levels Drop Notably In April

In 2009, President Zuma’s approval levels in metro areas were good, averaging in the mid-fifties. After a year of volatility during 2010, the figures were more stable in 2011, averaging 48%. However, in the first two quarters of 2012, after a rise to 55% in February, the figure has dropped to 46% in mid-April. (TNS South Africa)

May 11, 2012

EAST EUROPE

Russians Back Protests, Political Freedoms And Putin, Too

Following a winter of discontent Russians express an increased appetite for political freedom, and at the same time strongly endorse Vladimir Putin. Compared with just a few years ago, more Russians believe that voting gives people like themselves an opportunity to express their opinion about the country’s governance, more feel that it is important to be able to openly criticize the government, and greater numbers see freedom of the press and honest elections as very important. (Pew Research Center)

May 23, 2012

WEST EUROPE

UK: Residential Olympic missiles?

The British public is torn over whether it is appropriate for surface-to-air missiles to be placed on top of residential buildings as a security measure for this summer's London Olympics, with around two in five saying yes to using residential buildings and another two in five saying no. (Yougov)

May23, 2012

UK: Sexual Harassment In The Capital

Yougov survey for the End Violence Against Women Coalition published today reveals that over two in five young women in London aged 18 to 34 have experienced sexual harassment in public spaces over the last year. (Yougov)

May 25, 2012

Many Britons Are Disappointed with Coalition Government

More than half of respondents say the Coalition has accomplished little and has performed worse than they expected. Two years after taking office, the Coalition Government is regarded as a disappointment by many Britons, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found. (Angus Reid)

May 23, 2012

Final polls show Irish set to pass referendum

Final opinion polls show that Irish voters are likely to give the green light to the European Union's new fiscal treaty, with the 'Yes' campaign leading comfortably ahead of the referendum on Thursday. (Reuters)

May 26, 2012

Polls show Greek conservatives, leftists neck-and-neck

Parties supporting and opposing Greece's international bailout are running neck-and-neck ahead of next month's repeat national election, which could determine the country's future in the euro zone, three opinion polls showed on Friday. (Reuters)

May 25, 2012

NORTH AMERICA

Seven in Ten Say $2 Billion JPMorgan Loss Shows Nothing Has Changed on Wall Street

JPMorgan Chase’s $2 billion trading loss is proof positive to a large majority of US adults that it’s still business as usual on Wall Street, with little changing since the financial collapse of 2008, a new IBOPE Inteligência survey finds. (Ibope-Zogby)

May 25, 2012

Americans' City Optimism Reaches Four-Year High

The 58.7% of Americans who said their city or area where they live is "getting better" in April is the highest since the 59.0% measured in January 2008, and has surpassed pre-financial crisis levels. (Gallup USA)

May 25, 2012

Americans' Views of Biden Remain Divided

Americans are about equally likely to have a favorable (42%) as an unfavorable (45%) view of Joe Biden, which has been the case for most of his tenure as U.S. vice president. Americans were much more positive than negative toward Biden from the time he was chosen as Barack Obama's running mate through the first several months of the Obama administration. (Gallup USA)

May 23, 2012

Professionals Pick Obama; Execs and Business Owners, Romney

Barack Obama has a significant lead over Mitt Romney among the 24% of American working voters who are classified as professionals, and among the 13% who are service workers. The two are tied among clerical and office workers. Romney leads among all other job categories, including in particular the small segments of voters who work in farming and fishing, construction, and who own a business. He also has an edge among executives and managers. (Gallup USA)

May 24, 2012

"Pro-Choice" Americans at Record-Low 41%

The 41% of Americans who now identify themselves as "pro-choice" is down from 47% last July and is one percentage point below the previous record low in Gallup trends, recorded in May 2009. Fifty percent now call themselves "pro-life," one point shy of the record high, also from May 2009. (Gallup USA)

May 23, 2012

Americans, Including Catholics, Say Birth Control Is Morally OK

Eighty-two percent of U.S. Catholics say birth control is morally acceptable, nearing the 89% of all Americans and 90% of non-Catholics who agree. The level of acceptability on this issue is far greater than that of the other 17 issues Gallup asked about this year. (Gallup USA)

May 22, 2012

Hillary Clinton Maintains Near Record-High Favorability

Americans remain nearly as positive toward Hillary Clinton today as they have ever been over the past 20 years. The secretary of state's favorable rating remains at 66%, within one percentage point of her record-high rating in late 1998. Her unfavorable rating of 29% ties her record low since 1993. (Gallup USA)

May 21, 2012

In U.S., Financial Wellbeing Improves With Age

Americans tend to feel better about their personal financial situation as they get older. Senior citizens, those aged 75 and older, are the most likely to express positivity about their current finances, while those aged 18 to 64 feel the least positive. Those aged 75 and older are the most likely to say they feel good about the amount of money they have, are satisfied with their standard of living, have more than enough money to do what they want, and have enough money to buy what they need. They are also the most likely to say they did not worry that they spent too much yesterday. (Gallup USA)

May 21, 2012

In U.S., Nearly Half Identify as Economically Conservative

Americans are more than twice as likely to identify themselves as conservative rather than liberal on economic issues, 46% to 20%. The gap is narrower on social issues, but conservatives still outnumber liberals, 38% to 28%. (Gallup USA)

May 25, 2012

Obama’s Approval Rating Inching Closer to 50% in United States

Congress gains points, but three-in-five Americans disapprove of its performance.

Practically half of Americans are satisfied with the performance of the incumbent president, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found. (Angus Reid)

May 22, 2012

Conservatives Steady, NDP Gains at the Expense of Liberals in Canada

Thomas Mulcair’s national approval rating is boosted by the 70 per cent of Quebecers who are satisfied with his performance. The governing Conservative Party’s advantage over the opposition New Democratic Party (NDP) has shrunk in Canada over the past two months, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found. (Angus Reid)

May 24, 2012

AUSTRALASIA

Australian Multi-Screen Report Shows Tv Viewing Strong, 

An estimated 15% of Australian households now own at least one tablet device, according to the latest Australian Multi-Screen Report covering the first quarter of calendar 2012. New technologies are creating additional opportunities to view, keeping consumers engaged with broadcast television and enabling them to watch when and where they like. (Nielson)

May 22, 2012

MULTI-COUNTRY STUDIES

Economic Crisis Has Lasting Effect on Wellbeing Worldwide

Except for a clear dip in 2009 after the global economic meltdown in 2008, Gallup wellbeing studies show that, on average, about one in four adults worldwide have consistently rated their lives well enough to be considered "thriving." The percentage of adults considered "suffering" on the other hand, has increased and stayed relatively high. The trend in the difference between the two -- "net wellbeing" -- suggests global wellbeing has yet to fully rebound from the economic crisis. (Gallup USA)

May 25, 2012

In Europe, Migrants Rate Their Lives Worse Than Native Born

Migrants in 15 European Union countries, regardless of how long they have lived in those countries, rate their lives worse than the native born. Native-born residents on average rate their lives today a 6.6 on a 10-step ladder scale, where 10 represents the best possible life and 0 is the worst. Long-time migrants rate their current lives a 6.0 and newcomers a 5.9. (Gallup USA)

May 21, 2012

Obama, Romney Each Has Economic Strengths With Americans

Americans see the cost of healthcare, the federal budget deficit, and unemployment as the most important economic issues facing the country today, according to a new USA Today/Gallup poll asking them to rate the importance of 10 such issues. More than 80% rate each of the top three issues as extremely or very important. Americans prefer President Obama over Mitt Romney for handling healthcare, while Romney is favored on the deficit and the two are about tied on unemployment. (Gallup USA)

May 21, 2012

CYBER WORLD

Facebook IPO Not Selling On Social Media

Facebook’s May 18 IPO—which set the market value of the social-networking giant at $105 billion—sparked significant discussion on Twitter, blogs and Facebook itself, with more expressions of skepticism than confidence about the stock's value, according to a report by the Pew Research Center's Project for Excellence in Journalism. (Pew Research Center)

May 21, 2012

MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA

225-43-1. Palestinians Want Immediate Elections, Also Want Negotiations with Israel

Results of an Opinion Poll: Democracy and Freedoms, Performance of Government, Evaluation of Leaders, Peace Process and UN Initiative, Elections

Publication Date: 22 May 2012

Fieldwork: 11-13 May 2012 

Sample Size: 1200 Palestinians in the West Bank & Gaza

Margin of error: + 3 %

Introduction

These are the results and analyses of the latest Arab World for Research & Development (AWRAD) public opinion poll, focusing on state of democracy, the performance of the Fayyad and Haniyeh governments, the peace process and the UN Initiative, and support for existing political parties and prospective future candidates.

The questionnaire was fielded May 11-13, 2012. For this survey, 1200 Palestinians were interviewed in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.  All socioeconomic groups were represented in the poll (for more details on the sample, please refer to www.awrad.org).  The margin of error in this poll is plus or minus 3 percent.  The survey was carried out by AWRAD researchers under the supervision of Dr. Nader Said-Foqahaa, President of AWRAD. 

Highlights:

·         84 percent support the immediate conduct of elections.

·         55 percent support a return to negotiations.

·         10 percent are familiar with the content of the recent letter from President Abbas to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu.

·         24 percent believe that the Palestinian cause has been advanced by the UN Initiative, compared to 36 percent in November 2011.

·         Increase in the percentage of Palestinians (from 55 percent in March to 62 percent now) who believe that things are moving in the wrong direction. Belief that things are moving in the wrong direction reaches 71 percent in Gaza, compared to 56 percent in the West Bank.

·         74 percent of Gazans believe that the Haniyeh government is not accountable to the people; 50 percent of West Bank respondents believe that the Fayyad government is not accountable to the people.

·         62 percent of Gazans and 27 percent of West Bank respondents believe freedom of speech has diminished compared to 10 years ago.

·         88 percent of Palestinian respondents believe that the recent arrests of journalists and bloggers in the West Bank are unjustified.

·         71 percent of Gazans and 44 percent of West Bank respondents believe that their governments are censoring freedom of expression.

·         The overall approval rate of President Abbas stands at 55 percent; 48 percent approves of Fayyad’s overall performance and 34 percent approves of Haniyeh’s performance.

·         Disenchantment with the government of Haniyeh in Gaza continues to rise with the overwhelming majority in Gaza expressing dissatisfaction on almost all issues. The evaluation of the government of Fayyad has improved on all issues compared to our March 2012 poll.

·         63 percent of Gazans say that their living conditions have worsened since the appointment of the Haniyeh government. In contrast, 23 percent of West Bank respondents believe that their living conditions have worsened since the appointment of the Fayyad government.

·         Fayyad is the most trusted to lead a new government (30 percent), followed by Haniyeh (15 percent) and Mustafa Barghouthi (12 percent).

·         In a presidential contest among 15 leaders, Abbas receives the support of 32 percent followed by Haniyeh with 11 percent and Marwan Barghouthi with 8 percent.

·         In a four-way presidential race: Abbas (38 percent), Haniyeh (15 percent), Mustafa Barghouthi (9 percent) and Fayyad (6 percent).

·         In another four-way presidential race: Marwan Barghouthi (28 percent), Haniyeh (16 percent), Fayyad (15 percent) and Mustafa Barghouthi (8 percent).

Analysis of Results

                        Overall Outlook: Increasing pessimism

The present poll shows an increase in the negative evaluation of present and prospective living conditions. A majority of Palestinians (62 percent) believe that things are moving in the wrong direction; an increase from 46 percent in October 2011 and 55 percent in March 2012. This negative evaluation is due to a number of factors including increasing dissatisfaction with economic conditions:

48 percent of the respondents negatively evaluate overall economic conditions. In addition, 35 percent evaluate economic conditions as average. 17 percent describe economic conditions as above average.

Negative views of the economy are more prevalent in Gaza than the West Bank. Only 7 percent of Gazans describe their economic conditions as above average, compared to 23 percent of West Bank respondents. In contrast, 60 percent of Gazans negatively evaluate their living conditions, compared to 41 percent of West Bank respondents.

63 percent of Gazans say that their living conditions have worsened since the appointment of Haniyeh government. In comparison, 23 percent of West Bank respondents believe that their living conditions have worsened since the appointment of the Fayyad government.

In contrast, 36 percent of West Bank respondents believe that their living conditions have improved since the appointment of Fayyad, while only 19 percent of Gazans feel the same way after the appointment of the Haniyeh government.

Despite current attitudes, a majority of Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza (55 percent) remain optimistic about the future. In contrast, 42 percent express pessimism.

                        Government Performance: The Fayyad Government makes a recovery, while the popularity of the Haniyeh government continues to decline

             Negative evaluations of the Fayyad government have receded on all issues compared to our March 2012 poll:

·         Improving economic conditions, from 41 percent to 33 percent.

·         Providing electricity and water services, from 33 percent to 24 percent.

·         Providing health and education services, from 34 percent to 25 percent.

·         Providing job opportunities, from 65 percent to 59 percent.

·         Providing individual security, from 41 percent to 36 percent.

            The negative evaluation of the Haniyeh government among Gazans has slightly increased in most fields:

·         Improving economic conditions, from 60 percent to 63 percent.

·         Providing job opportunities, from 70 percent to 74 percent.

·         Improving the performance of government institutions, from 43 percent to 48 percent.

            The present poll confirms the findings of our March poll where on all issues evaluation of the Haniyeh government is less positive than that of the Fayyad government.

            The same trends apply to how Palestinians view the economic policies of both governments. A majority of respondents (51 percent) negatively view the economic policies of the Haniyeh government, compared to 25 percent who feel the same way about the policies of the Fayyad government. In contrast, 23 percent positively view the economic policies of the Fayyad government, compared to 10 percent who feel the same way about the policies of the Haniyeh government.

                        Unity and Reconciliation: Optimism about reaching unity declines in Gaza

            The rate of optimism about the ability of Fatah and Hamas to reach a genuine reconciliation agreement declined in Gaza from 61 percent in March to 50 percent now. The overall rate of optimism declined by 4 points from 56 percent in March to 52 percent now. 49 percent continue to be pessimistic.

            Respondents continue to be more trusting of the intentions of Fatah on this issue than they are of Hamas. A majority of 55 percent say that Fatah is serious about ending the division, compared to 33 percent who feel the same way about Hamas (an 8-point decline from March 2012). As much as 54 percent do not believe that Hamas is serious compared to 36 percent who feel the same way about Fatah.

            Mistrust of Hamas intentions among Gazans increased from 59 percent to 66 percent. Mistrust of Hamas intention continues to be lower in the West Bank than Gaza (47 percent to 66 percent). The same trend applies to Fatah, with 43 percent of Gazans and 32 percent of the West Bank respondents with the belief that the movement is not serious.

                        Democracy and Freedoms: Concerns over respect for human rights and personal freedoms

• The negative evaluation of the Gaza government in the fields of democracy and human rights is higher than that of the West Bank government:

·         While 43 percent believe that the Palestinian authority in the West Bank is transparent, only 24 percent say the same about the government in Gaza.

·         While 38 percent believe that the Palestinian authority in the West Bank is accountable to the people, only 21 percent say the same about the government in Gaza.

·         While 42 percent believe that the Palestinian authority in the West Bank is democratic, only 22 percent say the same about the government in Gaza.

·         While 47 percent believe that the Palestinian authority in the West Bank respects human rights, only 23 percent say the same about the government in Gaza.

• While the negative evaluation of the Gaza government is higher among Gazans than that of the PA in the West Bank, concerns are also present in the West Bank:

·         54 percent of all respondents believe that the government in Gaza is censoring freedom of speech. This is compared to 47 percent who believe that the West Bank government is censoring freedom of speech.

·         Regional differences are apparent with 71 percent of Gazans and 44 percent of West Bank respondents believing that their respective governments are censoring freedom of expression.

·          57 percent of all respondents believe that the Gaza government does not respect human rights, while 47 percent feel the same way about the West Bank government.

·         71 percent of Gazans believe that their government does not respect human rights, while 48 percent of West Bank respondents feel the same way about their government.

                        Evaluation of Leaders: No significant change in evaluations of leaders from March 2012

The overall evaluations of the personal performance of all three leaders -Abbas, Fayyad and Haniyeh- are the same as in AWRAD’s March 2012 poll.

Overall Performance:

·         President Abbas received a 43 percent positive evaluation. 30 percent gave him a "fair" evaluation and 25 percent a negative evaluation (the same as in the March poll).

·         PM Fayyad received a 33 percent positive evaluation. 35 percent gave him a "fair" evaluation and 28 percent a negative evaluation (a 6-point decline in his negative evaluation).

·         PM Haniyeh received a 26 percent positive evaluation. 31 percent gave him a "fair" evaluation and 37 percent a negative evaluation.

·         The positive evaluation of Fayyad in the West Bank increased by 6 points from March, while his negative evaluation declined by 8 points.

·         The evaluation of Haniyeh in Gaza did not change from the March poll.

Graph (1): Evaluation of Leaders’ Performance (Oct-07 through May12)

Approval Rates:

When asked if they approve or disapprove of the functioning of each leader, the respondents gave the following answers:

·         A majority of 55 percent approves of Abbas' performance and 41 percent disapproves.

·         48 percent approves of Fayyad’s performance and 46 percent disapproves.

·         34 percent approves of Haniyeh’s performance and 55 percent disapproves.

Graph (2): Approval Rates of Leaders

                        Prime Minister of Government: Fayyad is the most popular choice

·   When asked about the best person to head the Palestinian government, respondents gave the following responses:

         Fayyad is the most favorable candidate with 30 percent (a 4-point increase from the March poll), followed by Haniyeh with 15 percent (a 3-point decline).

         Mustafa Barghouthi is in third with 12 percent and M. Masri is number four with 5 percent.

         All other candidates receive less than 3 percent each.

·   Concerning the intended cabinet reshuffle (which took place after the conduct of the field work), 68 percent agreed with it and 19 percent were against.

                        Elections:  82 percent support the immediate conduct of local and parliamentary elections

·         As much as 84 percent of the respondents support the conduct of a presidential election immediately.

·         82 percent support the conduct of local and parliamentary elections.

·         Support for elections is equal in the West Bank and Gaza.

Party Support: Fatah remains on top

The political parties listed in the poll enjoy the following popularity rates:

·         Fatah at 42 percent, with equal support in both West Bank and Gaza,

·         Hamas at 13 percent, with 12 percent in the West Bank and 16 percent in Gaza,

·         The PFLP and the Palestinian National Initiative (Mubadara) enjoy 2-3 percent support.

·         The rest of the listed groups receive less than 2 percent support,

·         15 percent say that they are undecided and 18 percent say that they will not vote (a 7-point increase for both categories).

Presidential Elections: Abbas is most popular

In a presidential race involving 15 candidates, five from Fatah, four Islamists, three leftists and three independents, the following results emerge:

·         Abbas receives 32 percent of the vote, followed by Haniyeh with 11 percent.

·         Marwan Barghouthi receives 8 percent.

·         Mustafa Barghouthi and Fayyad receive 4-5 percent each.

·         Sa’adat receives about 3 percent.

·         The rest of the candidates receive 2 percent of less each.

      In a four-way race that involves Abbas, Haniyeh, Fayyad and Mustafa Barghouthi, the poll reveals the following results:

·         Abbas receives 38 percent of the vote,

·         Haniyeh receives 15 percent,

·         Mustafa Barghouthi receives 9 percent,

·         Fayyad receives 6 percent.

·         The percentage of the undecided and those who say that they will not vote increases from 20 percent in March to 31 percent now.

In a four-way race that involves Marwan Barghouthi, Haniyeh, Fayyad and Mustafa Barghouthi, the poll reveals the following results:

·         Marwan receives 28 percent of the vote,

·         Haniyeh receives 16 percent,

·         Fayyad in third place with 15 percent

·         Mustafa Barghouthi in fourth with 8 percent.

·         The percentage of the undecided and those who say that they will not vote increases from 21 percent in March to 34 percent now.

                        Peace Process and the UN Initiative: Majority supports a return to peace negotiations

·         A majority of Palestinian respondents (55 percent) supports a return to negotiations at this time. In contrast, 40 percent oppose.

·         Less than a third of the respondents have heard about the letter from Abbas to Netanyahu, while 65 percent have not.

·         Overall, 10 percent confirm that they are familiar with the content of the letter. 12 percent say that they are somewhat familiar. The rest are not familiar with the content of the letter.

·         Less than one quarter of the respondents believe that the Palestinian cause has been advanced by the UN Initiative. In contrast, 26 percent believe that it has been set back. The rest believe that there has been no change.

·         As to the conditions on the ground, one fifth of the respondents believe that conditions have been advanced while 27 percent disagree with that. 49 percent believe that there has been no change.

As much as 71 percent believe (in full or in part) that the present financial crisis is related to the UN Initiative. 23 percent disagree.

225-43-2. Egypt on the Eve of Elections: Economy, Democracy Are Both Priorities

May 23, 2012

On the eve of the first presidential election of the post-Mubarak era, Egyptians remain hopeful about the future of their country, and they strongly desire both an improved economy and the democratic freedoms they were denied under the previous regime.

A recent survey by the Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project found that 52% of Egyptians are optimistic about the future, while just 18% are pessimistic. And 53% are satisfied with the direction of the country, down slightly from 65% in a 2011 poll conducted shortly after the fall of Mubarak, but still considerably higher than the 28% registered in 2010, during the final year of the autocrat’s three decades in power.

As Egyptians head to the polls, the economy is their biggest concern, according to the Pew survey conducted March 19 to April 10. Roughly eight-in-ten (81%) consider improving the economy a very important priority for the country. Only 27% describe the current economic situation as good. And regardless of which candidate wins the presidency, he will face high economic expectations – 50% think the economy will improve in the next 12 months; just 20% say it will get worse.

While growing the economy is clearly a top priority for Egyptians, so is democracy. In fact, when asked which is more important, a strong economy or a good democracy, the public is divided: 49% say the former and 48% the latter.

And despite a tumultuous and often difficult year, support for democracy has not ebbed. Two-in-three Egyptians (67%) believe democracy is the best form of government, basically unchanged from 71% in 2011.

Moreover, Egyptians do not just voice support for democracy in a general sense – they also want specific democratic rights and institutions. In particular, they want a fair judiciary: 81% consider it is very important to live in a country with a judicial system that treats everyone in the same way. About six-in-ten say it is very important to live in a country with a free press (62%); free speech (60%); and honest, competitive elections with at least two political parties (58%). In addition to these fundamental components of democracy, Egyptians also want order: 60% rate law and order as very important.

Meanwhile, civilian control of the military is considered a relatively low priority, as just 24% think this is very important. Overall, the military continues to receive positive marks. Three-in-four say it is having a good influence on the country and 63% express a favorable view of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), which has led the country throughout the transition period. And while ratings for SCAF Chairman Mohamed Tantawi have fallen from last year’s sky-high 90%, he is still viewed favorably by 63% of Egyptians.

225-43-3. Most Egyptians Expect a Fair, Honest Election

Nearly three in four believe military will hand over power post-election

May 22, 2012

LOS ANGELES -- Eighty-six percent of Egyptians that Gallup surveyed in April say they plan to vote in the presidential election that begins Wednesday, and nearly as many (82%) expect the election to be fair and honest.

That so many Egyptians believe their election will be fair and plan to participate are signs of stability for a country that has endured a lot since former President Hosni Mubarak's ouster in early 2011. In the run-up to the election, many candidates were disqualified for various reasons, prompting protests from supporters of Hazem Salah Abu Ismail and others, while leaving Egyptians with a smaller pool of candidates to choose from. While some analysts worry limiting presidential candidates might discourage some voters from participating, Egyptians are as likely to say they plan to vote in April of this year as they were in February.

Egyptians' unwavering commitment to the electoral process even amid turmoil may be a positive sign for the potential success of Egyptians' efforts to vote in a president, write a constitution, and go on with the business of addressing the nation's challenges.

Fewer Egyptians Expect Military to Give Up Power

The army has pledged to hand over power to the new president by July 1, but tensions between the ruling military council and some pockets of Egyptian society have continued to flare with recurring protests. From secular groups and opposing Islamist ones to the "ultra" sports fans, the ruling military council's decisions have been rejected numerous times since the fall of the Mubarak regime.

Despite a noticeable drop between February and April 2012, more than seven in 10 Egyptians still believe that the military will hand over power to a civilian government after the presidential election.

As the clearest sign of a path to progress, Egyptians' faith in the process that brings a new president is a promising sign for what has been at times a chaotic transition. The widespread expectation that the military will hand over power to a civilian government is a sign that most Egyptians enter the polling booths this week view the outcome as a major watershed moment in Egypt's transition.

Implications

Egypt is clearly moving in a direction where an eager electorate is ready to participate in building the future. Despite a challenging transition, the country is ready to turn the page and elect a new president. Gallup data indicate that Islamist parties and groups lost support in the run up to the election. It will be interesting to see how this loss in support will affect the performance of the Muslim Brotherhood's Mohamed Morsi and the non-party-affiliated leading Islamist candidate Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh. With such faith and engagement in the process, candidates will organize their teams across the country to win this historic vote.

For complete data sets or custom research from the more than 150 countries Gallup continually surveys, please contact SocialandEconomicAnalysis@gallup.com or call 202.715.3030.

Survey Methods

Results are based on face-to-face interviews with 1,074 adults, aged 15 and older, conducted April 8-15, 2012, in Egypt. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3.4 percentage points. The margin of error reflects the influence of data weighting. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

SOUTH ASIA

225-43-4. Suffering in South Asia Highest in Region (Multi-country study)

Highest suffering is in Nepal and Afghanistan; lowest in Thailand

May 28, 2012

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- South Asians rated their lives worse in 2011 than most residents in other parts of Asia. At least one in five residents in Nepal (31%), Afghanistan (30%), India (24%), Sri Lanka (22%), and Pakistan (21%) rated their lives poorly enough to be considered "suffering." Bangladesh is the only South Asian country where suffering is significantly lower than its regional neighbors, at 10%.

Gallup classifies respondents as "thriving," "struggling," or "suffering" according to how they rate their current and future lives on a ladder scale with steps numbered from 0 to 10 based on the Cantril Self-Anchoring Striving Scale. Respondents are not asked to classify their lives according to these labels. Those who rate their present life a 7 or higher on the ladder and their life in five years an 8 or higher are classified as thriving, while those who rate both dimensions a 4 or lower are considered suffering. Respondents whose ratings fall in between are considered struggling.

The relatively high levels of suffering in South Asia likely reflect the economic turmoil, war, conflict, domestic terrorism, or separatist movements that have afflicted many of these countries in the past decade. Additionally, most South Asian countries currently have higher levels of unemployment and corruption and lower levels of college education than the rest of Asia.

Relatively low levels of suffering in Bangladesh may run counter to extremely poor economic conditions in the nation. According to 2011 World Bank data, GDP per capita in Bangladesh is the third lowest in Asia, slightly above Nepal and Afghanistan -- countries with the highest levels of suffering in Asia, at 31% and 30%, respectively.

That Bangladeshis are less likely than residents in other South Asian countries to rate their lives poorly enough to be considered suffering may be related to Gallup's findings about education in the country. Educational attainment in Bangladesh is the highest in South Asia -- 50% of the adult population has at least secondary or higher education. Gallup also finds 82% of Bangladeshis are satisfied with their schools, perhaps providing a relatively young Bangladeshi population with optimism for a bright future.

One in Seven Hong Kong Residents Are Suffering

Hong Kong's 14% suffering rate may be surprising, given the region's fairly quick recovery from the global economic downturn and its high GDP per capita. Hong Kong residents, however, are beset with several problems that may contribute to them having one of the highest suffering rates in East Asia. A slim majority (54%) say they are dissatisfied with the availability of affordable housing, the highest percentage in East Asia. Also, when asked if they are satisfied or dissatisfied with the quality of air, 30% of Hong Kong residents say they are satisfied -- consistently one of the lowest percentages of satisfaction with air quality that Gallup measures worldwide.

In Southeast Asia, Suffering Is Lowest in Thailand; Highest in Cambodia

Although Thailand experienced flooding in October and November 2010 that badly damaged the manufacturing centers north of Bangkok and stunted the nation's recovery from the global recession, 1% of the population rated their lives poorly enough to be considered suffering in 2011. This is the lowest rate in Asia and one of the lowest rates in the world. This low level of suffering may relate to the low unemployment levels in Thailand, which Gallup estimates to be less than 5%.

After decades of conflict and political upheaval, it is not surprising that Cambodia is at the opposite end of the wellbeing spectrum in Southeast Asia, with more than one-quarter of Cambodians (26%) considered suffering. Demands for Cambodian exports lessened considerably during the economic downturn and GDP is among the lowest in Asia.

Implications

Asian countries are vastly diverse in terms of economic conditions, size, population, governance, culture, language, and religion; therefore, each country has a unique path toward improved wellbeing. Governments should carefully examine the root causes of suffering and create solutions for their citizens. Although there is no one-size-fits-all solution, policymakers cannot ignore some important building blocks of a thriving population: strong governance, available employment, satisfactory income levels, good health, and available education.

For complete data sets or custom research from the more than 150 countries Gallup continually surveys, please contact SocialandEconomicAnalysis@gallup.com or call 202.715.3030.

Survey Methods

Results are based on face-to-face and telephone interviews with approximately 1,000 adults, aged 15 and older, conducted between April 5 and Dec. 4, 2011, in the 20 countries identified in the article. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error ranges from ± 2 percentage points to ±4 percentage points. The margin of error reflects the influence of data weighting. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

SOUTHEAST ASIA

225-43-5. Most Malaysians want the electoral roll cleaned before elections

May 25, 2012

Most Malaysians want the electoral roll cleaned before elections BANGI – A survey among voters in Peninsula Malaysia found that nearly all – 92% of voters want the electoral roll to be cleaned up before elections are held.

This sentiment comes on the back of the survey which found only 44% of the respondents expressed confidence that the election process in Malaysia was free from irregularity and abuse; while 49% of the respondents were not confident.

In the same survey, 48% of the respondents agreed that the electoral list was inaccurate and “embedded with doubtful voters such as foreigners, people who were transferred without their knowledge or people with multiple identities”. Only 39% of the respondentsdisagreed with the statement, i.e. believing the electoral roll was accurate.

52% of the respondents also agreed that election laws should be amended to allow the electoral roll to be challenged in the courts. At the same time, only 37% of the respondents trusted the postal voting system as being transparent and free from political influence and 51% distrusted.

Majority of Peninsular Malaysia voters also support Sabah RCI The poll also asked about Peninsula Malaysia voters view on the Royal Commission Inquiry for the illegal immigrants’ problem in Sabah. An overwhelming number (81%) of the respondents also agreed to the setting up of the RCI.

Majority of voters do not understand BERSIH demands The poll was concluded a day before the BERSIH 3.0 rally and the survey also found that only 39% of the respondents understood the key demands of the electoral reform pressure group for free and fair election in Malaysia. When asked about their trust in the Parliament Select Committee (PSC) on electoral reform, only 34% of the respondents believed it was a sincere effort to reform while 43% of the respondents believed it was an attempt to cover up or divert public attention.

The survey was carried out by Merdeka Center for Opinion Research between 14th and 26th April 2012 to gauge Peninsula Malaysia voters’ perception of current developments. 1,019 registered voters comprising 59% Malay, 32% Chinese and 9 % Indian respondents which was reflective of electoral profile of Peninsula Malaysia were polled.

Respondents were selected on the basis of random stratified sampling along ethnicity, gender and parliament constituency. The poll was conducted via telephone to fixed and mobile line subscribers. The margin of error of the poll is ±3.07%.

About Merdeka Center for Opinion Research

Merdeka Center for Opinion Research was formally established in 2001 as an independent organization focused on public opinion research and socio-economic analysis. Merdeka’s mission is to act as a bridge between ordinary Malaysians and other stakeholders with the leading members of the nation – by collecting public opinion studies and expressing them through survey results, analysis and position papers. For details, visit: www.merdeka.org

225-43-6. Philippines: Adult Unemployment At Record-High 34.4%; 13% Lost Their Jobs Involuntarily, 15% Resigned

First Quarter 2012 Social Weather Survey:

23 May 2012

Social Weather Stations

The First Quarter 2012 Social Weather Survey, fielded over March 10-13, 2012, found adult unemployment at a new record-high 34.4%, or an estimated 13.8 million, surpassing the previous record-high of 34.2% in February 2009.

The latest unemployment rate is 10 points higher than the 24.0% (est. 9.7 million) in December 2011 [Chart 1, Table 1].

The survey found that the unemployment rate consisted of 13% retrenched, 15% resigned or voluntarily left their old jobs, and 6% first-time job seekers [Chart 2].

The retrenchment consisted of 10% whose previous contact was not renewed, 2% whose employer closed operation, and 1% who were laid off.

The survey also found that 33% of adults say the number of available jobs in the next 12 months will not change, 26% say there will be more jobs, and 25% say there will be fewer jobs.

New record-high unemployment

Since 1993 when SWS began surveying it, adult unemployment was below 15% up to March 2004, and ranged from 16.5% to 19.0% from August 2004 to March 2005.

It was below 20% in only 3 out of 27 surveys from May 2005 to December 2011.

It reached a high 34.2% in February 2009 and went on a downward trend until 18.9% in September 2010.
It then ranged from 20.2% to 27.2% from November 2010 to December 2011 before rising to a new record-high 34.4% in March 2012.

Job history of the unemployed

Since November 2010, adult unemployment is dominated by those who voluntarily left their old job, and those who lost their jobs through economic circumstances beyond their control.

Compared to the previous quarter, the proportion of those whose contracts were not renewed rose from 7% to 10%, those who were laid off stayed at 1%, and those whose employers closed operation stayed at 2% [Chart 2].

Those who resigned or left their old jobs voluntarily rose from 9% in December 2011 to 15% in March 2012, while first-time job seekers went from 5% to 6%.

Job availability prospects merely neutral now

To the survey question, "Sa darating na 12 buwan mula ngayon, sa palagay ba ninyo ay DADAMI, HINDI MAGBABAGO, o MABABAWASAN ang trabaho na maaaring pasukan?" ["Twelve months from now, do you think there will be MORE JOBS, NO CHANGE in available jobs, or FEWER JOBS?"], 26% are optimistic that there will be more jobs, and 25% are pessimistic that there will be fewer jobs [Chart 3].

Thirty-three percent say there will be no change.

Optimists used to outnumber pessimists, by at least 9 points and as much as 36 points from March 2010 to June 2011.

However, the gap between optimists and pessimists narrowed to 6 points (29% more jobs, 23% fewer jobs) in December 2011 and just 1 point (26% more jobs, 25% fewer jobs) in March 2012.

Unemployment rose among men and women

Unemployment is relatively high among women and among younger members of the labor force, following the pattern in previous SWS surveys.

Compared to the previous quarter, adult unemployment rose by around 12 points among men, from 15.2% in December 2011 to 27.6% in March 2012, and by 7 points among women, from 35.6% to 43.0% [Chart 4].

Record-high unemployment among 25-34 and 45 up

Compared to the previous quarter, SWS adult unemployment rose by 16 points among 25-34, from 29.9% to a new record-high 45.4%, surpassing the previous record-high of 38.5% in September 2007 [Chart 5].

It also reached a new record-high among 45 and above, up by over 13 points from 17.3% in the previous quarter to 30.8% now, surpassing the previous record-high of 26.6% in February 2009.

It rose by 7 points among 18-24, from 49.1% in December 2012 to 55.8% in March 2012, and by 3 points among 35-44, from 18.7% to 21.7%.

SWS unemployment definition

The SWS data on unemployment refer to the population of adults in the labor force. This is because respondents in the standard SWS surveys are those at least 18 years old. On the other hand, the official lower boundary of the labor force has always been 15 years of age.

The 1993-2012 figures are consistently based on the traditional definition of unemployment as fulfilling two requirements: not working and looking for work. Those not working but not looking for work are excluded from the labor force; these are housewives, retired, disabled, students, etc.

Before April 2005, the official definition of the unemployed was, likewise, those not working and looking for work. From April 2005 onwards, the official definition includes three requirements: not working, looking for work, and available for work; it subtracts those not available for work, even though looking for work, and adds those available for work but not seeking work for the following reasons: tired/believe no work is available, awaiting results of a job application, temporarily ill/disabled, bad weather, and waiting for rehire/job recall.

If the official definition is applied, the unemployment rate among adults 18 years old is 26.3% (est. 9.4 million) in the SWS March 2012 survey. It is lower than when computed using the traditional definition because the correction for those looking for work but 'not truly available' is much larger than the correction for those 'actually available' though not looking for work at the moment.

Definition of SWS employment

In the SWS surveys, employed persons are those who are currently working ("may trabaho sa kasalukuyan"), including unpaid family worker. Respondents are free to decide whether or not they fit this description at the time of the interview.

On the other hand, the official Labor Force Survey definition of employed include all those who, during the reference period (the past week or the week before the interview date), are 15 years and over as of their last birthday and are reported either:

a. At work. Those who do any work even for one hour during the reference period for pay or profit, or work without pay on the farm or business enterprise operated by a member of the same household related by blood, marriage or adoption; or

b. With a job but not at work. Those who have a job or business but are not at work because of temporary illness/injury, vacation, or other reasons. Likewise, persons who expect to report for work or to start operation of a farm or business enterprise within two weeks from the date of the enumerator's visit are considered employed.

Survey Background

The March 2012 Social Weather Survey was conducted from March 10-13, 2012 using face-to-face interviews of 1,200 adults in Metro Manila, the Balance of Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao (sampling error margins of ±3% for national percentages, ±6% for area percentages).

The area estimates were weighted by National Statistics Office medium-population projections for 2011 to obtain the national estimates.

The Social Weather Survey items on adult unemployment are non-commissioned. These items were included on SWS's own initiative and released as a public service, with first printing rights assigned to BusinessWorld.

SWS employs its own staff for questionnaire design, sampling, fieldwork, data-processing, and analysis, and does not outsource any of its survey operations.

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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

225-43-7. Deputy President Motlanthe Has Slightly Higher Approval Levels Than President Zuma

Black adults in metro areas are the most positive

Johannesburg, 11 May 2012: .Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe’s approval levels amongst metro adults in April 2012 are slightly higher than those of President Jacob Zuma: 49% of metro adults approve of the way Deputy President Motlanthe is doing his job compared with 46% in the case of president Zuma. However, there are more fence sitters in the case of the Deputy President. This is according to a survey released today by TNS, South Africa’s leading marketing and social insights company. The studies are conducted amongst a sample of 2 000 SA adults from the seven major metropolitan areas of South Africa, interviewing them face-to-face in their homes, with a margin of error of under 2.5%.

* Net positives are given by subtracting those who feel he is NOT doing a good job from those who feel he IS doing a good job.

Who is more or less positive?

Unfortunately, political views in South Africa tend to have a strong correlation with race. This is illustrated below:

* Net positives are given by subtracting those who feel he is NOT doing a good job from those who feel he IS doing a good job.

Whilst blacks in metro areas have shifted more positively since the end of 2011 in terms of the Deputy President’s approval levels, other race groups have shifted to slightly more negative territory. There are no gender differences; however, younger people are more positive (53% amongst those aged 18 to 34 compared with 39% amongst those over 50 years old. Amongst black language speakers, those whose home language is isiXhosa are the least positive at 59% - other language groups average 69%.

Differences by area

There are usually strong regional differences in such ratings. These are outlined below:

The only major difference between Deputy President Motlanthe’s rating and Pres Zuma’s rating occurs in Soweto, Pretoria and East London. The Deputy President’s rating shows a rise since the end of last year in those same areas.

Our take out

The Deputy President’s rating parallels that of the President with only small differences except in Soweto, Pretoria and East London.

Technical note:

All the studies were conducted amongst 2 000 adults (1260 to 1290 blacks, 350 to 385 whites, 240 coloureds and 115 Indians/Asians) in the seven major metropolitan areas: it has a margin of error of under 2.5% for the results found for the total sample. The studies use probability sampling techniques and are fully representative of the major metropolitan areas. The studies were conducted by TNS South Africa as part of their ongoing research into current social and political issues and were funded by TNS.

225-43-8. After A Rise In February, The President’s Approval Levels Drop Notably In April

Volatility returns to approval levels of President Zuma

Johannesburg, 10 May 2012: In 2009, President Zuma’s approval levels in metro areas were good, averaging in the mid-fifties. After a year of volatility during 2010, the figures were more stable in 2011, averaging 48%. However, in the first two quarters of 2012, after a rise to 55% in February, the figure has dropped to 46% in mid-April. This is according to a survey released today by TNS, South Africa’s leading marketing and social insights company, which has been tracking approval levels of the incumbent President for many years. The studies are conducted amongst a sample of 2 000 SA adults from the seven major metropolitan areas of South Africa, interviewing them face-to-face in their homes, with a margin of error of under 2.5%.

* Net positives are given by subtracting those who feel he is NOT doing a good job from those who feel he IS doing a good job.

The February 2012 study was conducted in the last two weeks of February, whilst the latest reading was for the middle two weeks of April, just after school holidays finished but before the last long weekend in April. It was at this time that the e-tolling saga was at its height (but before the judgement on the interdict), concerns about the reinstatement of Lt Gen Richard Mdluli were growing and the Malema suspension was finalised.

The figures also show that the proportion of people giving a “don’t know” response has dropped to more usual levels after being high since 2009 – people are coming to a more definite view of the President after a long period where many people were not sure about him. These previously uncertain people are shifting to the negative category.

Who is more or less positive?

Unfortunately, political views in South Africa tend to have a strong correlation with race. This is best illustrated in the following table:

* Net positives are given by subtracting those who feel he is NOT doing a good job from those who feel he IS doing a good job.

· The latest reading for blacks, after a strong rise in February, showed a notable drop in April to the lowest figure since Sept 2010.

· The figures for whites reflect show a slow downward trend for both readings in 2012 so far.

· For coloureds, sentiment shifted positively in February but dropped back in April.

· For Indians/Asians, the trend is strongly negative.

Differences by area

There are usually strong regional differences in such ratings. These are outlined below:

The rise in February occurred across most areas – as does the drop in April, which was particularly strong in Soweto,

Pretoria, East London and Bloemfontein. Overall, the President’s approval levels are best Gauteng (except Pretoria) and poorest in Cape Town and Port Elizabeth.

Other notable differences

In terms of age group, people aged 18 to 34 years are the most positive at 51% (unchanged over the past four readings) whilst those aged 60 years and more are the least positive at 30% (down from the 40% of November 2011 and Feb 2012). In terms of language group, the most positive are those whose home language is isiZulu at 67% (unchanged over the past four readings). Of the other black language groups, the approval level sits at 55%. For the first time, females are somewhat more positive than males (49% cf 43%).

Our take out

President Zuma’s approval levels in metro areas, as measured in April, show a notable drop to 46% since February’s 55%, the April reading being the lowest since September 2010 amongst blacks in a return to a greater level of volatility compared with 2011. Younger people are still more favourably disposed to the President compared with other age groups.

Technical note:

All the studies were conducted amongst 2 000 adults (1260 to 1290 blacks, 350 to 385 whites, 240 coloureds and 115 Indians/Asians) in the seven major metropolitan areas: it has a margin of error of under 2.5% for the results found for the total sample. The studies use probability sampling techniques and are fully representative of the major metropolitan areas. The studies were conducted by TNS South Africa as part of their ongoing research into current social and political issues and were funded by TNS. For more details, please contact Neil Higgs on 011-778-7500 or 082-376-6312. www.tnsglobal.co.za

About TNS

TNS advises clients on specific growth strategies around new market entry, innovation, brand switching and stakeholder management, based on long-established expertise and market-leading solutions. With a presence in over 80 countries, TNS has more conversations with the world’s consumers than anyone else and understands individual human behaviours and attitudes across every cultural, economic and political region of the world. TNS is part of Kantar, one of the world's largest insight, information and consultancy groups.

EAST EUROPE

225-43-9. Russians Back Protests, Political Freedoms And Putin, Too

May 23, 2012

OVERVIEW

Following a winter of discontent Russians express an increased appetite for political freedom, and at the same time strongly endorse Vladimir Putin.

Compared with just a few years ago, more Russians believe that voting gives people like themselves an opportunity to express their opinion about the country’s governance, more feel that it is important to be able to openly criticize the government, and greater numbers see freedom of the press and honest elections as very important.

Consistent with the value placed on core democratic principles, a solid majority (64%) see attending protests as an opportunity to speak out about how the government is run, and more than half (56%) specifically approve of the mass demonstrations that followed the December 2011 parliamentary vote, which was marred by fraud allegations. In that regard, while a modest 56%-majority says they are satisfied with the outcome of the March 4, 2012 presidential election, just 47% believe that election was fair.

Nonetheless, the poll finds a number of indicators of support for the status quo. Most notably, 72% of Russians voice a favorable opinion of Vladimir Putin, while almost as many hold a positive opinion of Dmitri Medvedev (67%). Putin’s popularity is being fueled more by views of the economy and perceptions of social mobility than it is being hurt by democratic aspirations. Relatively few Russians express favorable views of other prominent political figures. Roughly four-in-ten or fewer have positive opinions of presidential contenders Gennady Zyuganov (39%), Mikhail Prokhorov (36%), Sergei Mironov (36%) and Vladimir Zhirinovsky (28%). Meanwhile, 54% of Russians are unfamiliar with government critic and protest organizer Alexei Navalny.

Further, as they have for most of the post-Soviet era, a majority of Russians continue to feel that relying on a leader with a strong hand in order to solve problems is more important than relying on a democratic form of government (57% vs. 32%). In addition, strong majorities say it is very important to live in a country where there is law and order (75%) and economic prosperity (71%). In fact, three-quarters say they would choose a strong economy over a good democracy.

These are among the principal findings from a nationwide survey of Russia by the Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project. Face-to-face interviews were conducted with 1,000 adults in Russia between March 19 and April 4, 2012. The poll finds that Russians are generally divided about their country’s direction as Putin begins his third term as president: 46% are satisfied with the way things are going in their country, while 45% are not. At home, the economy is a concern for many Russians, with only 32% describing the current economic situation as good. Meanwhile, in the international arena, a solid majority (73%) believe Russia deserves greater respect from other countries. The survey also finds persistent strains of ethnic nationalism among Russians, with about half (53%) saying Russia should be for Russians only, and 44% saying it is natural for Russia to have an empire.

Democratic Freedoms More Valued

Against the backdrop of protests over the conduct of elections and the state of democracy in Russia, increasing numbers of Russians endorse the importance of key civic freedoms and institutions. Looking back a full ten years, five of the six measures of democratic freedom tested by the Global Attitudes Project have witnessed double-digit increases in terms of the percentage of Russians describing them as “very important.”

As they have in the past, today Russians place the greatest value on a judiciary that treats all citizens equally (71%), but compared with 2009, more now also value a civilian-controlled military (up 14 percentage points), an uncensored media (up 12 points) and honest elections (up 11 points). The importance of free speech and religious freedom has grown more modestly over the past three years (up 7 and 5 percentage points, respectively).

Although growing numbers of Russians value civic freedoms and institutions, relatively few see these as a reality in their country. Roughly one-in-five or fewer say a fair judiciary (17%), honest elections (16%), uncensored media (15%) and a civilian-controlled military (14%) describe Russia very well. Slightly more (28%) say that freedom of speech is characteristic of their country, while almost half (46%) agree that citizens are generally free to practice their religion.

Comparing the percentage of Russians who place a high value on core political freedoms with the percentage who believe the same freedoms are a fact of life in Russia, it is possible to discern a growing gap between democracy’s promise and practice.

In light of this gap, it is not surprising to find only 31% of Russians are satisfied with the way democracy is working in their country. This sentiment is pervasive across demographic groups. And although those with a favorable view of Putin are somewhat more upbeat about the state of democracy in Russia (36% satisfied), even within this group a majority (57%) see room for improvement.

Voting, Protests Seen as Important

Despite the public’s disappointment with democratization in Russia, the number of people who say voting matters has actually risen. In 1991, when the Times Mirror Center, precursor to the Pew Research Center, first asked if voting gave people an opportunity to express their opinion about how government runs things, just 47% agreed. In 2009, the balance of opinion showed more doubting the power of voting. But this spring there seems to be a renewed conviction that casting one’s vote matters – a 56%-majority now believes this to be true.

Positive shifts in the value placed on voting are evident across education and income groups. Meanwhile, attitudes among older Russians appear to have “caught up” with those of younger Russians. In 2009, just over half (54%) of those ages 18-29 said that voting gave them a say about governance, but fewer among 30-49 year olds (42%) or those over 50 (38%) felt the same. Today, about the same number of 18-29 year olds think voting matters (51%), but more among the 30-49 and 50-plus cohorts now share this view, (55% and 61%, respectively).

Along with generally endorsing the importance of voting, a strong majority of Russians (64%) believe that attending protests or demonstrations is an effective way for average citizens to comment on the government’s actions. And more than half (56%) say they support the protests for fair elections that arose in the wake of the controversial parliamentary vote in December of last year.

While some in Russia have suggested that the protests for fair elections are the result of Western meddling, most Russians (58%) disagree, attributing the demonstrations instead to genuine dissatisfaction among the public.

Mixed Reaction to Presidential Vote

Protests in the wake of the December 2011 parliamentary elections brought to the fore questions about the fairness of the March 4, 2012 presidential vote. Following Putin’s first-round victory, the public offers a mixed assessment of the balloting: 47% believe the election was free from manipulation, while roughly a third (35%) disagree and 18% are uncertain.

Overall, a majority (56%) say they are satisfied with the results of the election, compared with a third (33%) who are dissatisfied. One-in-ten do not have an opinion either way.

The perceived fairness of the March 4th vote is a key factor influencing satisfaction with the outcome. Nearly nine-in-ten (87%) who think the election was “clean” say they are satisfied with the outcome. By contrast, only one-in-five who believe the vote was unfair say the same. Russians who are unsure whether the election was fair, meanwhile, tend to be satisfied (46%) with Putin’s victory.

Not surprisingly, reaction to the election results is especially positive among Russians who hold a favorable opinion of Putin (71% satisfied) and those who feel they are better off financially than they were five years ago (71% satisfied).

Putin’s Continued Appeal

While some Russians may have their doubts about the fairness of the March 4th presidential vote, Putin clearly remains popular. Roughly seven-in-ten (72%) say they have a favorable opinion of the returning president. Only about a quarter (24%) of respondents voice the opposite view.

Putin’s base of support is broad, although he is especially popular among women, Russians ages 30-49 and those with less than a college education. Overall, opinion of the newly elected president is more influenced by views of the economy and perceived social mobility. People who say the economy is good and feel they are better off than their parents are more likely to have a positive view of Putin. To the degree that democratic leanings help shape attitudes toward Putin, those who say an uncensored media is very important are less likely to have a favorable opinion of Russia’s long-time leader.

Dmitri Medvedev, who will now be stepping into the role of prime minister, is also widely popular. Two-thirds of Russians have a favorable view of Medvedev, while only 28% voice an unfavorable opinion.

In terms of public support, Putin and Medvedev clearly stand out from other figures on Russia’s political stage. Among the presidential candidates this spring, for example, Putin is the only one viewed favorably by a majority of Russians. Indeed, on balance, opinions of veteran politicians such as Communist Party head Zyuganov, A Just Russia’s Mironov and Liberal Democratic Party leader Zhirinovsky are negative (52%, 51% and 66% unfavorable, respectively).

Views are similarly negative for presidential candidate Prokhorov: roughly half (48%) have an unfavorable view of the billionaire businessman. Meanwhile, among the relatively few Russians familiar with Alexei Navalny, the online activist and a prominent organizer of anti-government protests, views also tend to be more negative than positive (31% vs. 16%).

Challenges Ahead?

As Putin assumes the presidency for the third time, he faces a public with mixed views about the state of their nation. At home, opinion is nearly evenly split as to whether the country is headed in the right direction. On one hand, more today (46%) than at any point since 2008 say things are going well. But on the other, worries persist. In particular, a majority (64%) continues to describe the economy as bad.

Internationally, meanwhile, Russians show signs of insecurity. Slightly more than half (55%) believe their country is generally disliked by other countries – an increase of 8 percentage points since 2010. And fully 73% say Russia deserves to be more respected around the world than it currently is.

The desire for enhanced prestige on the world stage coexists with a persistent strain of ethnic nationalism. Roughly half (53%) of Russians say their homeland should be for Russians, while 44% think it is natural for Russia to have an empire.

WEST EUROPE

225-43-10. UK: Residential Olympic missiles?

May23, 2012

British public split over placing missiles on residential buildings around London 2012 Olympic park

The British public is torn over whether it is appropriate for surface-to-air missiles to be placed on top of residential buildings as a security measure for this summer's London Olympics, with around two in five saying yes to using residential buildings and another two in five saying no.

o    40% say the missiles should be placed on residential buildings

o    41% say they should not be placed on residential buildings

o    19% don’t know whether it's OK for missiles should be placed on residential buildings or not

The Ministry of Defence has confirmed that the missiles will form part of what is being called a ‘layered’ defence system to protect Olympic venues from potential terrorist attacks during the Games, which also reportedly involves the deployment of Royal Navy ships, RAF helicopters and jets.

Security measure or hazardous practice?

A spokesman for the Ministry of Defence has said "The safety of the Games is paramount and working alongside the police, the MoD has conducted a broad range of community engagement in those areas where ground-based air defence may be sited."

The security plan has alarmed local residents who claim they are uncomfortable with the use of their homes as a missile base. East London resident Brian Whelan told the Telegraph that he cannot imagine a situation where the missiles could be safely deployed in Tower Hamlets.

Whelan and other residents of homes earmarked as launch sites have contacted solicitors to see if they could block the missile plans."I appreciate they have to protect the Olympics but I am not convinced that it is acceptable,” he commented.  

However, a Ministry of Defence spokesman sought to play down safety concerns. “We want to cause as little disruption to people going about their everyday business as possible," he said. "But at the same time, the public expects that we take all those steps necessary to protect them at what will be a time of national pride and celebration."

225-43-11. UK: Sexual Harassment In The Capital

May 25, 2012

Poll: 43% young women in London have experienced public sexual harassment in past year

Our survey for the End Violence Against Women Coalition published today reveals that over two in five young women in London aged 18 to 34 have experienced sexual harassment in public spaces over the last year.

The poll of 1,047 London adults, including 523 women, asked female Londoners about their experience, if any, of unwanted contact or attention ‒ such as, for example, wolf whistling, sexual comments, staring, exposure ‒ of a sexual nature in public spaces over the last year.

o    42% of women aged 18-34 have experienced unwanted sexual attention of some kind over the past year

o    21% of all women have experienced unwanted sexual attention

o    4% of all women have experienced unwanted sexual touching

The survey also asked female Londoners the same questions about their experience when on public transport in London and again found alarmingly high levels of sexual harassment.

o    31% of women aged 18 to 24 have experienced unwanted sexual attention while on public transport

o    24% of women aged 25 to 34 have experienced unwanted sexual attention

o    14% of all women aged 18 and over have experienced unwanted sexual attention in the past year

o    5% of all women have experienced unwanted sexual touching

EVAW Coalition Co-Chair Professor Liz Kelly commented on the findings, saying: "Our survey shows that sexual harassment in London is extremely common. Some survey respondents also said that this behaviour makes them feel uncomfortable and unsafe and makes them change their behaviour and decisions about when and where to travel.

"Despite this high prevalence and impact however, public sexual harassment is a form of abuse which generally goes unchallenged, creating an unsafe and unequal environment for women.

"We need investment in public campaigns on transport and elsewhere saying this behaviour is unacceptable, and training for transport staff about how to respond to it."

A small selection of comments made by female survey respondents

Call for awareness, training and ‘bystander intervention’

Although often dismissed as trivial or as something women and girls should just ignore, separate research shows that the regular experience of sexual harassment increases women’s fear of crime, makes women feel that their choices are limited, and even feeds into how women feel about their bodies and their sexuality.*

The EVAW Coalition has written to Transport for London with the survey findings and setting out its recommendations which are that there should be a public awareness campaign indicating that sexual harassment can be a crime and is not acceptable.

 EVAW is also calling for training for police and transport staff in dealing with sexual harassment when it is reported. It is hoped that a combination of measures such as these will contribute to a longer term culture change where this behaviour becomes less socially acceptable and where bystanders for example are more likely to intervene when it occurs (some survey respondents reported incidents of sexual harassment and assault where onlookers did nothing).

Feeling safe on public transport

Publication of these new survey results follows the publication during the London Mayoral election campaign of other findings from the same YouGov poll that almost twice as many women in London as men say they do not feel safe using London public transport at all times of day and night (28% of women as to 15% of men).

Of women in the survey who chose to comment further on their feelings about safety when travelling in London

o    The highest number said they wanted to see action on transport staffing – including wanting more staff, better training for staff, and staff to be more visible

o    After staffing, the next most commonly expressed desires were for more visible policing on the transport system

o    And better lighting on buses and trains, at stops and stations and beyond

An alarming number of women said that they did not feel safe when travelling at night with some avoiding doing so because of safety fears. When asked for comments, some women reported that they had personal experience of, or a friend or family member had experience of, sexual harassment or sexual assault when travelling in London.

Council approaches

Vicky Simister, Founding Director of the UK Anti Street Harassment Campaign, said: "In order to address this, local councils and the police need to convey a strong message that this behaviour will not be tolerated by perpetrators. A good example was the 'Flirt/Harass: Real Men Know the Difference' poster campaign by Lambeth council in partnership with the Metropolitan Police, which conveyed a no-tolerance message. More councils need to adopt approaches like this.

"It is important to note that [unwanted sexual harassment] is not a London-only problem...We hope that London can lead the way in addressing this issue - particularly in light of the impending Olympics and international perceptions of our nation's attitude to women's safety."

See the survey details and full results here

The End Violence Against Women Coalition is the UK’s largest coalition of organisations working to eradicate violence against women and girls; members include Eaves, Fawcett Society, Forward, Imkaan, Jewish Women’s Aid, Newham Asian Women’s Project, Rape Crisis England and Wales, Standing Together, Women in Prison, WRC, The Women’s Institute, Amnesty International UK and the TUC.

o    A 2010 poll of 788 16-18-year-olds around the UK conducted by YouGov for the EVAW Coalition found that almost a third (29%) of 16-18-year-old girls say they have been subjected to unwanted sexual touching at school

o    Nearly three-quarters (71%) of all 16-18-year-olds (ie boys and girls) say they hear sexual name-calling with terms such as “slut” or “slag” used towards girls at schools on a daily basis or a few times a week

225-43-12. Many Britons Are Disappointed with Coalition Government

(05/23/12) -

More than half of respondents say the Coalition has accomplished little and has performed worse than they expected.

Two years after taking office, the Coalition Government is regarded as a disappointment by many Britons, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative sample of 2,003 British adults, 52 per cent of respondents believe the Coalition Government—featuring members of the Conservative Party and the Liberal Democrats—has performed worse than they expected.

In addition, 55 per cent of Britons think the Coalition has accomplished little as Government, while three-in-ten (29%) say it is too early to judge its accomplishments.

Practically half of respondents (49%) would like to hold an early General Election, while one third (32%) believe the Coalition Government should stay in place until May 2015.

A large majority of Britons (60%) believe this coalition is a one-time thing, and expect the next government to be formed by a party with a majority in Parliament.

Respondents in the North and Scotland are particularly critical of the Coalition Government, with a least three-in-five respondents saying it has accomplished little and has performed worse than they expected.

Methodology: From May 10 to May 12, 2012, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 2,003 randomly selected British adults who are Springboard UK panelists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 2.2%. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region data to ensure samples representative of the entire adult population of Great Britain. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.

225-43-13. Final polls show Irish set to pass referendum

May 26, 2012

(Reuters) - Final opinion polls show that Irish voters are likely to give the green light to the European Union's new fiscal treaty, with the 'Yes' campaign leading comfortably ahead of the referendum on Thursday.

Ireland will hold what is likely to be the only popular vote on the so-called "fiscal compact", a German-inspired pact for stricter budget discipline.

The 'Yes' campaign, supported by the three largest political parties who have warned a rejection would undermine the country's position in theeuro zone, has been ahead in the polls since the vote was called three months ago.

While opponents have tried to tap growing anger at the government's austerity drive to defeat the treaty, 49 percent of voters plan to vote in favor, with 35 percent against and 16 percent undecided, according to a Sunday Business Post/Red C poll.

If undecided voters are excluded, the treaty is backed by 58 percent of voters, with 42 percent against.

Debate in Dublin has focused mainly on a clause that allows access to Europe's new bailout fund only to states that ratify the treaty - something the government has described as an essential backstop to its plans to return to bond markets.

But as voters go to the polls on Thursday, Irish politicians are mindful that voters have twice rejected European treaties in recent years before reversing course in repeat votes.

Those who have yet to make up their minds could also cause a late swing.

SUPPORT

More than one-in-four said they are yet to make up their minds according to the Sunday Independent/Millward Brown Lansdowne poll, while 42 percent supported the treaty and 28 percent were opposed. The 'undecided' figure has lowered from 35 percent a week ago.

A Sunday Times poll also supported a likely victory for the 'Yes' camp with some 45 percent of voters saying they would support the treaty, 30 percent were opposed and 20 percent yet to decide or unlikely to vote.

Opponents, led by the increasingly popular Sinn Fein party, have seized on a push by newly elected French President Francois Hollande to do more to stimulate growth and not only focus on cost-cutting measures.

The Irish government has rejected calls for the referendum to be postponed to allow the treaty to be changed.

While the treaty needs the approval of only 12 of the 17 euro zone countries to be ratified, an Irish rejection would undermine Europe's strategy for overcoming a debt crisis thrown sharply into focus by political disarray in Greece.

225-43-14. Polls show Greek conservatives, leftists neck-and-neck

May 25, 2012

(Reuters) - Parties supporting and opposing Greece's international bailout are running neck-and-neck ahead of next month's repeat national election, which could determine the country's future in the euro zone, three opinion polls showed on Friday.

Greece was forced to call the new June 17 vote after an election on May 6 left parliament divided evenly between groups of parties that support and oppose the austerity conditions attached to a 130 billion euro bailout agreed with the European Union and International Monetary Fund in March.

The failure of the two parties that dominated Greece for decades - conservative New Democracy and Socialist PASOK - to win a pro-bailout majority, and the success of the anti-bailout radical leftist SYRIZA party which came second, have sent shockwaves through Europe.

Of three polls published on Friday, two put anti-bailout SYRIZA ahead but two of the polls showed gaps of less than 2.2 percentage points between SYRIZA and New Democracy.

Greek election rules give the party that comes first an automatic bonus of 50 seats in the 300-seat parliament, so that even a slim advantage could play a decisive role in determining which party forms the next government.

A poll by VPRC for the Kontra TV station showed SYRIZA was ahead with 28.5 percent of the votes, and the pro-bailout New Democracy second with 26 percent.

Another poll earlier on Friday by RASS for the Metro newspaper showed New Democracy was ahead with 23.6 percent of SYRIZA with 21.4 percent, while a third poll by Metron for TV station Antenna showed a narrower gap with 27.2 percent for SYRIZA and 27 percent for New Democracy.

The Socialist PASOK, which also backs the international bailout keeping Greece afloat, remained steadily in third place in all three polls.

New Democracy and PASOK will be trying to scare voters who punished them in the last election into returning, arguing that electing SYRIZA leader Alexis Tsipras would mean the end of Greece's euro zone membership.

Polls since the May 6 election have shown SYRIZA, New Democracy and PASOK improving their performance at the expense of smaller parties.

An overwhelming majority of more than 75 percent of Greeks want to stay in the euro, but two thirds oppose the bailout, which came with harsh salary, pension and job cuts.

EU leaders have warned Greece that if it renounces the bailout they will pull the plug on funding, leading to rapid bankruptcy and an exit from the single currency.

NORTH AMERICA

225-43-15. Seven in Ten Say $2 Billion JPMorgan Loss Shows Nothing Has Changed on Wall Street

May 25, 2012

Public Split on Whether Stronger Laws Would Be Effective

UTICA, NY – JPMorgan Chase’s $2 billion trading loss is proof positive to a large majority of US adults that it’s still business as usual on Wall Street, with little changing since the financial collapse of 2008, a new IBOPE Inteligência survey finds.

The interactive survey shows 69% agree that the JPMorgan’s actions demonstrate that nothing has changed, the rate of which is much higher among Democrats (81%) compared to Republicans (54%) and independent (68%).

The remedy for the situation is up for debate however, as respondents are split on whether stronger laws and regulations would prevent further incidents like this from occurring (47% to 43%).Only 16% of Republicans say stronger measures are likely to succeed, compared to 79% of Democrats and 41% of independents.

Also, 65% approve of the Justice Department initiating a criminal probe in the bank’s trading loss, and are closely divided on whether President Obama or Mitt Romney would do a better job preventing similar future events.

Obama has a 38%-34% edge over Romney on doing a better job “preventing banks and stock traders from making high-risk transactions that could cause harm to the average person.” Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson was included in the question, and 4% chose him.

IBOPE Inteligência conducted an online survey of 2,100 US adults. The margin of error is +/- 2.2 percentage points. A sampling of IBOPE Inteligência's online panel, which is representative of the adult population of the US, was invited to participate from May 18-21. Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, religion, gender and education to more accurately reflect the population.

ABOUT IBOPE Inteligência

IBOPE Inteligência, formerly IBOPE Zogby International, is a non-partisan, premier global public opinion polling and market research firm that offers timely, accurate results and in-depth analysis and insights. IBOPE Inteligência works with issue experts in a vast array of fields including healthcare, technology, finance, insurance, energy, agriculture, public affairs, and media who offer insightful data analysis and exceptional service to clients in countries throughout the world. IBOPE Inteligência experts analyze data and work with clients to develop and implement new strategies, and offer customized and attractive solutions to challenges our clients face. IBOPE Inteligência is a subsidiary of the IBOPE Group of Sao Paulo, Brazil.

About IBOPE Group

IBOPE Group is a Brazilian multinational company specializing in media, market and opinion research with offices in the United States and 14 Latin American countries. Since its founding 68 years ago, it has been providing a wide range of information and studies on media, public opinion, voting patterns, consumption habits, branding and market behavior.

225-43-16. Americans' City Optimism Reaches Four-Year High

Large majority remains satisfied with current local conditions

May 25, 2012

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- The 58.7% of Americans who said their city or area where they live is "getting better" in April is the highest since the 59.0% measured in January 2008, and has surpassed pre-financial crisis levels.

The Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index tracks community satisfaction and optimism on a daily basis. These findings are based on approximately 30,000 interviews with American adults conducted each month from January 2008 through April 2012.

The percentage of Americans who said their city or area is getting better slowly declined leading up to the financial crisis in the first half of 2008, and fell to an all-time low of 51.0% in February 2009.

After reaching 57.0% in May 2011, Americans' optimism about their cities declined to the 54% range in the summer and fall of 2011. City optimism had dropped to an 11-month low at the same time that economic optimism hit a 26-month low in August 2011. Now optimism appears to be increasing again -- mirroring Americans' improving economic optimism and overall life evaluation ratings.

Americans Generally Positive About Current Conditions in Their City

Americans expressed a high level of satisfaction with current conditions in their city, as has been the case since Gallup and Healthways started tracking this metric. The 85.7% who said they were satisfied with their city in April is on par with the highest readings on record and is higher than what was found throughout 2008 and early 2009.

Still, it is important note that the percentage of Americans satisfied with their city or area has stayed in a narrow range between 83.9% and 86.1% over the past four and a quarter years. Americans' satisfaction with where they live dropped to a low of 83.9% in November 2008 -- amid the financial crisis. The highest level of satisfaction on record came one year later in November 2009, at 86.1%.

Further, Americans were much more satisfied with their local situation than they were with the national situation. In a May 3-6 Gallup poll, 24% of Americans were satisfied with the way things are going in the country, compared with the current 85.7% who say they are satisfied with their city or area. This reflects Americans' tendency to be more positive about local situations than about national conditions.

Bottom Line

Americans' increasing optimism about the future of their community is a hopeful sign that improvements in the national economy may be positively affecting residents at the local level. It is particularly important for local leaders to closely monitor residents' perceptions of the city or area where they live so they can retain and attract residents to develop thriving communities.

View the metropolitan areas with the highest and lowest levels of city optimism in 2011 and export complete wellbeing data by metro area using Gallup's U.S. City Wellbeing Tracking interactive.

About the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index

The Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index tracks wellbeing in the U.S., U.K., and Germany and provides best-in-class solutions for a healthier world. To learn more, please visit well-beingindex.com.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index with a random sample of approximately 30,000 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling. The results for April reflect 28,215 interviews conducted April 1-30, 2012.

For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±0.6 percentage points.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each sample includes a minimum quota of 400 cell phone respondents and 600 landline respondents per 1,000 national adults, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents by region. Landline telephone numbers are chosen at random among listed telephone numbers. Cell phone numbers are selected using random-digit-dial methods. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday.

Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, and phone status (cell phone only/landline only/both, cell phone mostly, and having an unlisted landline number). Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2010 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

225-43-17. Americans' Views of Biden Remain Divided

Forty-two percent view him positively and 45% negatively

May 23, 2012

PRINCETON, NJ -- Americans are about equally likely to have a favorable (42%) as an unfavorable (45%) view of Joe Biden, which has been the case for most of his tenure as U.S. vice president. Americans were much more positive than negative toward Biden from the time he was chosen as Barack Obama's running mate through the first several months of the Obama administration.

The May 10-13 USA Today/Gallup poll marks the first time opinions of Biden have tilted negative since he became Obama's vice presidential pick, but they are not materially different from the closely divided but still net positive ratings of Biden from October 2009-March 2011. The current poll was conducted after Biden's comments in favor of same-sex marriage on "Meet the Press" on Sunday, May 6 -- comments that led to President Obama's announcement that he too supported legalized same-sex marriage. The poll suggests those comments did not have a dramatic effect on how Americans view Biden.

Biden's favorable rating peaked at 59% immediately after the 2008 election. His current 45% unfavorable rating is his highest so far, though his unfavorable ratings have been at least 40% since October 2009.

Fourteen percent of Americans do not have an opinion of the vice president, similar to the levels Gallup has measured since October 2008.

Predictably, Democrats are overwhelmingly positive toward the Democratic vice president, and Republicans overwhelmingly negative. By 47% to 37%, independents are more negative than positive.

When Gallup last measured opinions about Biden, in March 2011, Democrats' and independents' views were essentially the same as they are now. Republicans were a bit more positive toward him at that time, with 24% favorable and 68% unfavorable ratings.

Implications

Americans' views of Vice President Biden have not changed much in over two years, with similar proportions having positive or negative views of him since October 2009.

That roughly equal division of opinion makes him slightly less popular than the president, who has a 52% favorable and a 46% unfavorable rating in the same May 10-13 poll. Biden is much less popular thanSecretary of State Hillary Clinton, who was also considered for the vice presidential slot and, like Biden, was one of Obama's challengers for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination.

Given the partisan division of opinion about Biden, he may be best suited to energize the Democratic base rather than trying to attract independent support to the Obama campaign this election year.

Survey Methods

Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted May 10-13, 2012, with a random sample of 1,012 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia.

For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each sample includes a minimum quota of 400 cell phone respondents and 600 landline respondents per 1,000 national adults, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents by region. Landline telephone numbers are chosen at random among listed telephone numbers. Cell phone numbers are selected using random-digit-dial methods. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday.

Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, and phone status (cell phone only/landline only/both, cell phone mostly, and having an unlisted landline number). Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2011 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

225-43-18. Professionals Pick Obama; Execs and Business Owners, Romney

Government workers back Obama over Romney

May 24, 2012

PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama has a significant lead over Mitt Romney among the 24% of American working voters who are classified as professionals, and among the 13% who are service workers. The two are tied among clerical and office workers. Romney leads among all other job categories, including in particular the small segments of voters who work in farming and fishing, construction, and who own a business. He also has an edge among executives and managers.

These findings are based on an aggregate of Gallup Daily tracking interviews conducted April 11-May 21. Workers are categorized based on their responses to a question asking them to state the general type of work they do. Their answers are coded into one of the 11 categories that the U.S. federal government uses to classify workers. Overall in this sample of working voters, Romney and Obama are statistically tied, with Romney at 47% of the vote and Obama at 45%.

The results confirm that workers' vote choices are significantly related to the type of work they do. The largest category of workers is "professionals" -- which would include lawyers, doctors, scientists, teachers, engineers, nurses, and accountants. These professionals prefer Obama over Romney by 51% to 43%. In these data, 40% of professionals have postgraduate education, by far the highest proportion of any of the 11 job categories. Voters with postgraduate education are more liberal than average, and constitute a strong Obama support group.

The second-largest category of workers is service workers -- police officers, firefighters, waiters, fast-food workers, janitorial workers, and so forth. This group constitutes 13% of working voters, and favors Obama over Romney by 13 percentage points.

On the other hand, the third-largest category of workers is managers and executives (10% of working voters), and this group favors former business executive Romney by seven points over Obama.

Clerical and office workers (7% of working voters) are evenly split in their vote preferences, while all other categories of workers, most of which make up a small proportion of all workers, favor Romney.

Romney's biggest lead is among the 2% of working voters who are classified as farming, fishing, or forestry workers. Their vote choice is 66% Romney, 29% Obama.

Government Employees -- Especially at the State Level -- Prefer Obama

In addition to the type of work people do, Gallup assesses worker attitudes based on government employment status. About 17% of all working voters in this sample are employed by federal (4%), state (7%), or local (6%) governments. These government workers, as a whole, support Obama over Romney, by nine points. There are, however, significant differences by type of government employment. State workers, the largest group of government employees, are the strongest Obama supporters. Local government workers tilt slightly toward Obama, while federal workers split their vote, 46% for Romney and 45% for Obama.

Implications

Different types of American working voters have differing demographic characteristics, and given that these characteristics are related to political preferences, it is not surprising to find that workers' vote choice is related to the type of work they do.

Support for the two major-party candidates by job category doesn't follow strict socioeconomic class lines. Professional workers, who tend to be more highly educated than the average worker in America today, are more liberal and Democratic than average, and accordingly tilt toward support of Obama. On the other hand, traditionally blue-collar, less well-educated groups of construction, manufacturing, and installation or repair workers tilt strongly toward Romney. Business owners and managers or executives strongly support Romney, an MBA and former business executive, over Obama.

Thirty-seven percent of state government workers who are registered voters are union members in this sample, helping explain their substantial tilt toward Obama -- particularly given the recent efforts by Republican governors in several states to decrease the power of unions in state governments. Federal government workers, on the other hand, are just about evenly split when asked if they would vote for their current boss, or for Romney.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking April 11-May 21, 2012, with a random sample of 13,933 workers who are registered voters, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia.

For results based on the total sample of working registered voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point.

For results based on the total sample of 2,516 government workers who are registered voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.

Results based on subsamples of workers based on job category and type of government work will have larger maximum margins of sampling error depending on the size of each subsample.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each sample includes a minimum quota of 400 cell phone respondents and 600 landline respondents per 1,000 national adults, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents by region. Landline telephone numbers are chosen at random among listed telephone numbers. Cell phone numbers are selected using random-digit-dial methods. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday.

Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, and phone status (cell phone only/landline only/both, cell phone mostly, and having an unlisted landline number). Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2011 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

225-43-19. "Pro-Choice" Americans at Record-Low 41%

Americans now tilt "pro-life" by nine-point margin, 50% to 41%

May 23, 2012

PRINCETON, NJ -- The 41% of Americans who now identify themselves as "pro-choice" is down from 47% last July and is one percentage point below the previous record low in Gallup trends, recorded in May 2009. Fifty percent now call themselves "pro-life," one point shy of the record high, also from May 2009.

Gallup began asking Americans to define themselves as pro-choice or pro-life on abortion in 1995, and since then, identification with the labels has shifted from a wide lead for the pro-choice position in the mid-1990s, to a generally narrower lead for "pro-choice" -- from 1998 through 2008 -- to a close division between the two positions since 2009. However, in the last period, Gallup has found the pro-life position significantly ahead on two occasions, once in May 2009 and again today. It remains to be seen whether the pro-life spike found this month proves temporary, as it did in 2009, or is sustained for some period.

Decline in "Pro-Choice" Views Seen Across Partisan Groups

The decline in Americans' self-identification as "pro-choice" is seen across the three U.S. political groups.

Since 2001, the majority of Republicans have consistently taken the pro-life position, but by a gradually increasing margin over "pro-choice." That gap expanded further this year, with the percentage of Republicans identifying as pro-life increasing to 72% from 68% last May, and those identifying as pro-choice dropping to 22% from 28%. Still, Republicans' current views are similar to those found in 2009.

The percentage of political independents identifying as pro-choice is 10 points lower today than in May 2011, while the percentage pro-life is up by six points. As a result, pro-lifers now outnumber pro-choicers among this important swing political group for only the second time since 2001, with the first occurring in 2009.

More broadly, since 2009, independents have been fairly closely divided between the two abortion positions, whereas for most of the 2001-2008 period, significantly more independents were pro-choice than pro-life.

Democrats' views on abortion have changed the least over the past 12 years, with roughly 60% calling themselves pro-choice and about a third pro-life. Democrats' identification as pro-choice was above this range in May 2011, but has returned to about 60% in the current poll.

The shift in abortion views over the past year is not due to a change in the political composition of the samples. In the May 2-6, 2012, Values and Beliefs poll, 47% of respondents are Democrats or lean Democratic, while 41% are Republican or lean Republican. This is similar to the partisan composition of the May and July 2011 surveys, which showed a close division between pro-life and pro-choice Americans.

Views About Morality and Legality of Abortion Hold Steady

While Americans' identification as "pro-choice" has waned over the past year, their fundamental views about the morality and legality of abortion have held steady. Half of Americans, 51%, consider abortion morally wrong and 38% say it is morally acceptable -- nearly identical to the results in May 2011.

Gallup's longest-running measure of abortion views, established in 1975, asks Americans if abortion should be legal in all circumstances, legal only under certain circumstances, or illegal in all circumstances. Since 2001, at least half of Americans have consistently chosen the middle position, saying abortion should be legal under certain circumstances, and the 52% saying this today is similar to the 50% in May 2011. The 25% currently wanting abortion to be legal in all cases and the 20% in favor of making it illegal in all cases are also similar to last year's findings.

Bottom Line

Since 2009, Americans have been closely divided in their identification with the labels most commonly used by each side of the abortion debate, although twice in that time period, including today, the percentage identifying as pro-life has been significantly higher than the pro-choice percentage. This represents a clear shift from 2001 to 2008, when Gallup most often found pro-choice adherents in the plurality.

Abortion has been the focal point of some prominent news stories in the past year, including congressional efforts to eliminate federal funding for Planned Parenthood because of its abortion services, as well as to investigate Planned Parenthood's financial practices. There was also a widely reported controversy over the Susan G. Komen for the Cure cancer foundation's temporary decision to suspend grants to Planned Parenthood pending the outcome of that congressional investigation. And the ongoing conflict between the U.S. Roman Catholic Church and the Obama administration over mandated health insurance for contraception is partially related to abortion, in that the church contends that some forms of contraception can halt the development of a fertilized egg.

Whether any of these controversies is related to the shift in Americans' identification as pro-choice or pro-life is not clear. However, it is notable that while Americans' labeling of their position has changed, their fundamental views on the issue have not. If the advantage for the "pro-life" position persists in future Gallup updates on abortion, these would seem to be important factors to look at to help explain the shift in labeling.

Upcoming Gallup reports will explore Americans' 2012 views on abortion in greater depth, including looking at trends by gender, age, and other demographic variables.

Survey Methods

Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted May 3-6, 2012 with a random sample of 1,024 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia.

For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each sample includes a minimum quota of 400 cell phone respondents and 600 landline respondents per 1,000 national adults, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents by region. Landline telephone numbers are chosen at random among listed telephone numbers. Cell phone numbers are selected using random-digit-dial methods. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday.

Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, and phone status (cell phone only/landline only/both, cell phone mostly, and having an unlisted landline number). Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2011 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

225-43-20. Americans, Including Catholics, Say Birth Control Is Morally OK

Birth control has the broadest acceptance among 18 behaviors

May 22, 2012

PRINCETON, NJ -- Eighty-two percent of U.S. Catholics say birth control is morally acceptable, nearing the 89% of all Americans and 90% of non-Catholics who agree. The level of acceptability on this issue is far greater than that of the other 17 issues Gallup asked about this year.

These data are from Gallup's May 3-6 Values and Beliefs survey, in which the issue of birth control was included for the first time. Birth control has become controversial in light of the pushback from some Catholic leaders and institutions on the portion of the 2010 Affordable Care Act that requires all institutions, including Catholic ones, to offer birth control as part of employee healthcare plans. The Obama administration has proposed a solution that offers such institutions a technical way around this requirement, but on Monday a number of Catholic dioceses and institutions, including the University of Notre Dame and Catholic University, filed a lawsuit against the government regarding the requirement.

The issue involved here is the broad separation of church and state, not necessarily the morality of using birth control. Still, the current data show that the substantial majority of Catholics interviewed say birth control is morally acceptable. At the same time, when given a choice, 56% of Catholics in a Gallup survey conducted Feb. 16-19 said they sympathized with the views of religious leaders on the contraception-healthcare coverage debate, while 39% sympathized with the Obama administration's position.

Birth Control Most Widely Seen as Acceptable; Having an Affair, Least

The issue of birth control tops the list of morally acceptable behavior across the 18 issues tested this year. At the bottom of the list is the issue of "married men and women having an affair," which only 7% of Americans find morally acceptable. Having an affair has been at or near the bottom each year since Gallup began tracking these issues in 2001.

Americans' views on the moral acceptability of each issue held largely steady this year compared with last -- except in the case of the death penalty. This year, 58% of Americans say the death penalty is morally acceptable, down from 65% last year. The 58% reading is the lowest in Gallup's 12-year history of asking about the death penalty in this way. Gallup will update its longer-term trend question on the death penalty in October, which will help confirm whether the downturn in support seen in the current poll is part of a larger trend.

Major Differences Between Democrats and Republicans in Moral Acceptability of Issues

Democrats and Republicans have opposing reactions to a number of values issues, exemplifying the major differences between the two political parties in today's highly partisan world. The majority of Democrats, versus less than half of Republicans, consider abortion, gay and lesbian relations, having a baby out of wedlock, embryonic stem cell research, and premarital sex morally acceptable. The majority of Republicans, but less than half of Democrats, find the death penalty and medical testing on animals to be morally acceptable.

Additionally, Republicans and Democrats differ significantly in their views of the morality of pornography, doctor-assisted suicide, suicide, and gambling (with Democrats more accepting), and the use of animal fur for clothing (with Republicans more accepting).

The biggest partisan divides come on views of the death penalty, abortion, and gay or lesbian relations, with gaps of 30 percentage points or more between Republicans and Democrats. The smallest differences are on cloning animals, birth control, and cloning humans.

The relative position of independents on these issues varies. On some, including abortion, gay or lesbian relations, embryonic stem cell research, pornography, and the death penalty, independents' attitudes fall squarely between those of Democrats and Republicans. On others, including sex between an unmarried man and woman, doctor-assisted suicide, gambling, divorce, and cloning animals, independents are the most supportive of all partisan groups, at least by a slight margin.

Implications

Although Catholic leaders have protested the portion of the Affordable Care Act mandating that health insurance plans include payment for birth control, the average rank-and-file Catholic in the U.S. finds the use of birth control morally acceptable. Catholic leaders are no doubt aware that many of their parishioners use birth control, but these data underscore the divide between official church teaching and Catholics' day-by-day behaviors.

Democrats and Republicans have long differed on their positions on these types of moral issues, and these data confirm how far apart partisans continue to be in this important election year. Although values concerns are seldom rated the most important issues in a presidential campaign, a candidate's positions on such issues can serve to motivate his party's base, and can help determine vote choice for the small segments of voters for whom values are very important.

The partisan divisions on these issues partly reflect the significant difference in religiosity between the two partisan groups. Republicans are on average significantly more religious than Democrats. In this Values and Beliefs survey, for example, 42% of Republicans report attending church weekly, compared with 29% of Democrats. Religious Americans are significantly less likely to find most of these moral practices acceptable than are those who are less religious.

Survey Methods

Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted May 3-6, 2012, with a random sample of 1,024 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia.

For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each sample includes a minimum quota of 400 cell phone respondents and 600 landline respondents per 1,000 national adults, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents by region. Landline telephone numbers are chosen at random among listed telephone numbers. Cell phone numbers are selected using random-digit-dial methods. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday.

Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, and phone status (cell phone only/landline only/both, cell phone mostly, and having an unlisted landline number). Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2011 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

225-43-21. Hillary Clinton Maintains Near Record-High Favorability

Two-thirds of Americans view her favorably, on par with her personal best

May 21, 2012

PRINCETON, NJ -- Americans remain nearly as positive toward Hillary Clinton today as they have ever been over the past 20 years. The secretary of state's favorable rating remains at 66%, within one percentage point of her record-high rating in late 1998. Her unfavorable rating of 29% ties her record low since 1993.

Gallup's latest update of Clinton's favorable rating is from a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted May 10-13. Her 66% favorable rating, the same as she received in March 2011 and February 1999, is one point lower than the 67% high she reached in December 1998 just after her husband, President Bill Clinton, had been impeached by the House of Representatives. Her current 29% unfavorable rating is on the low end of the ratings she has received; her record low is a 21% unfavorable rating in 1992, but in that poll, more than one in five had no opinion.

Clinton's average favorable rating since 1992 has been 53%, but has undergone significant shifts over that time, as her public career has gone through four distinct phases -- her eight years as first lady, her service as U.S. senator from New York, a brief interlude during her campaign for the Democratic nomination for president in 2008, and, since 2009, her service in Barack Obama's cabinet as secretary of state.

Americans have been most positive about Clinton in her first few years as first lady; late in Bill Clinton's presidency, when he was being impeached on charges stemming from his affair with White House intern Monica Lewinsky; at times while she was serving as U.S. senator; and, most recently, in the 3+ years during which she has been secretary of state. These positive periods contrast with a number of occasions when her favorable rating dropped below 50% -- most recently when she was involved in the prolonged campaign against Obama for the Democratic nomination.

Clinton's favorable ratings have been above 60% in all five Gallup readings since January 2009, including the two 66% readings over the last two years -- thus representing the longest period of high ratings she has received since entering the national spotlight. Clinton receives a 91% favorable rating among Democrats, 65% among independents, and 41% among Republicans.

Bottom Line

Americans' opinions of Clinton have oscillated over the years as her political life has moved through a number of distinct phases. Ninety-five percent of Americans now know her well enough to have an opinion, and those opinions are more positive than negative, by more than a 2-to-1 ratio. It appears her ability to transcend domestic partisan politics as secretary of state, and her highly visible, extensive travels around the globe meeting with world leaders, have served to reinforce Americans' positive image of her. Previous Gallup analysis has shown that other U.S. secretaries of state, including Colin Powell, Condoleezza Rice, and Madeleine Albright, also had high favorable ratings while in that office, including Powell's favorable ratings, which were in the 80% range.

Clinton has said she will step down as secretary of state next year, even if Obama is re-elected. Although there has been occasional speculation that Obama might drop Vice President Joe Biden from the ticket and tap Clinton to be his running mate this fall, most of the discussion of her political future centers on the possibility that she would make a second run at the White House in 2016, when she will turn 69. The fact that Clinton is almost universally known and at this point well-liked by Americans suggests that she would be a formidable contender were she to decide to run. At the same time, the history of Americans' ups and downs in their ratings of her raises the possibility that if she were to jump back into the political fray, her image would have a significant probability of becoming more polarized and more negative once again.

Survey Methods

Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted May 10-13, 2012, with a random sample of 1,012 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia.

For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each sample includes a minimum quota of 400 cell phone respondents and 600 landline respondents per 1,000 national adults, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents by region. Landline telephone numbers are chosen at random among listed telephone numbers. Cell phone numbers are selected using random-digit-dial methods. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday.

Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, and phone status (cell phone only/landline only/both, cell phone mostly, and having an unlisted landline number). Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2011 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

225-43-22. In U.S., Financial Wellbeing Improves With Age

Optimism about direction finances are headed declines with age

May 21, 2012

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Americans tend to feel better about their personal financial situation as they get older. Senior citizens, those aged 75 and older, are the most likely to express positivity about their current finances, while those aged 18 to 64 feel the least positive. Those aged 75 and older are the most likely to say they feel good about the amount of money they have, are satisfied with their standard of living, have more than enough money to do what they want, and have enough money to buy what they need. They are also the most likely to say they did not worry that they spent too much yesterday.

These data, from Gallup Daily tracking interviews conducted Jan. 1-May 2, 2012, reveal that Americans of typical retirement age -- 65 and older -- feel relatively good about how much money they have.

However, the views of those aged 50 to 64, a group nearing retirement, are more in line with -- and often less positive than -- those who are younger rather than those who are older than them. Americans in this age group are the least likely to feel good about the amount of money they have and to be satisfied with their standard of living. Thirty-two percent of 50- to 64-year-olds say they have more than enough money to do what they want to do, matching the views of 18- to 49-year-olds, but far less positive than the 52% of those aged 75 and older who say the same.

Oldest Americans Least Positive About Direction Finances Are Headed

Perhaps not unexpectedly, the oldest Americans are the least likely to believe that their financial situation is improving. For example, the percentage saying their standard of living is getting better declines precipitously from 66% among those aged 18 to 49 to 23% among those aged 75 and older.

This decline may be partly because of older Americans' higher reliance on fixed incomes such as pensions and Social Security, which remain mostly stable over time. Younger Americans, on the other hand, likely believe their incomes will increase in the future because of employment promotions or feeling there are greater opportunities to grow their wealth and therefore improve their standard of living.

While 50- to 64-year-olds are much less likely than those who are older to be satisfied with their currentstandard of living, they are more likely than their elders to say that their standard of living is getting better.

Implications

Even as many likely saw their home values and retirement funds decline amid the 2008 recession, older Americans are feeling relatively good about their finances compared with those who are younger. Those aged 18 to 64 are struggling the most with their current financial wellbeing. While the unemployment rate among 50- to 64-year-olds is lower and incomes higher than those aged 18 to 49, economic pressures --perhaps those related to nearing retirement -- may be affecting their sense of financial wellbeing. The decline in defined pension plans and increase in self-funded plans, which may be more affected by market conditions, could also be influencing financial wellbeing for these age groups.

Additionally, those aged 50 to 64 may be more likely to be responsible for the care of elderly parents, as well as contributing to their children's expenses such as higher education. They are closest to the traditional age of retirement, yet they have likely seen a reduction in their retirement investments, and Gallup finds many are worried about having enough money for retirement.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of the Gallup Daily tracking survey Jan. 1-May 2, 2012, with a random sample of 117,508 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling.

For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each sample includes a minimum quota of 400 cell phone respondents and 600 landline respondents per 1,000 national adults, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents by region. Landline telephone numbers are chosen at random among listed telephone numbers. Cell phone numbers are selected using random-digit-dial methods. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday.

Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, and phone status (cell phone only/landline only/both, cell phone mostly, and having an unlisted landline number). Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2010 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

225-43-23. In U.S., Nearly Half Identify as Economically Conservative

Thirty-eight percent say they are conservative on social issues

May 25, 2012

PRINCETON, NJ -- Americans are more than twice as likely to identify themselves as conservative rather than liberal on economic issues, 46% to 20%. The gap is narrower on social issues, but conservatives still outnumber liberals, 38% to 28%.

These results are based on Gallup's annual Values and Beliefs poll, conducted May 3-6. Since 2001, the poll has asked Americans to say whether they are liberal, moderate, or conservative on "economic" and, separately, "social" issues. The interpretation of what qualifies as social or economic issues is left to the respondent, given that the question does not define or provide examples of these types of issues.

In the same poll, on Gallup's standard measure of ideology -- not asked in reference to any set of issues -- 41% identified themselves as conservatives, 33% as moderates, and 23% as liberals. Those figures aresimilar to what Gallup typically finds when it asks people to identify their ideology.

Thus, compared with the standard measure of ideology, slightly more Americans say they are economically conservative and slightly fewer say they are socially conservative. Also, significantly more Americans say they are socially liberal than identify their basic ideology as liberal.

More Americans Identifying as Economic Conservatives

Over the last four years, an average of 48% of Americans have said they are conservative on economic issues, including a high of 51% in May 2010. From 2001-2008, an average of 42% said they were economically conservative. This increase in economic conservatism has been coupled with a decline in the percentage who say they are moderate on economic issues. There has also been a slight increase in the percentage of Americans identifying as economic liberals, to a high of 20% this year.

The changes in self-identified economic conservatism coincide with the economic downturn and President Barack Obama's time in office. But because the jump occurred between 2008 and 2009, and Americans were already concerned about the economy in 2008, the change in presidential administrations from Bush to Obama may be the bigger factor.

Social Moderates Declining

The major shift in Americans' identification on social issues in recent years has been a decline in the percentage who say they are moderate, from 39% as recently as 2005 to 31% today. There have been roughly equal increases in the percentage of self-identified social liberals (four percentage points) and social conservatives (three points) today compared with 2005.

Most Americans Are Ideologically Consistent

For the most part, Americans fall on the same ideological side on economic and social issues. Sixty-one percent are conservative, moderate, or liberal on both dimensions, with the largest percentage, 31%, conservative on both. Fifteen percent are liberal on both social and economic issues, and 15% are moderate on both.

The bulk of those who are not consistent say they are economically conservative and socially moderate (11%), or economically moderate and socially liberal (10%). Only 4% are liberal on one dimension and conservative on the other, with most of those being economically conservative and socially liberal.

Implications

More Americans identify as economic conservatives than as social conservatives or conservatives in general. And that tendency has increased in the last four years, perhaps due to President Obama's economic agenda. This suggests that a conservative economic message from Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney may resonate with voters this year.

Americans are also more likely to say they are conservative than liberal or moderate on social issues, underscoring the conclusion that the conservative label has more appeal in the United States today than either the moderate or the liberal label.

Also, the moderate label seems to be losing some of its appeal in recent years, as Americans have become less likely to say they are moderate on both social and economic issues. The movement away from the moderate label may be another example of the increasing polarization of U.S. politics.

Survey Methods

Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted May 3-6, 2012, with a random sample of 1,024 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia.

For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each sample includes a minimum quota of 400 cell phone respondents and 600 landline respondents per 1,000 national adults, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents by region. Landline telephone numbers are chosen at random among listed telephone numbers. Cell phone numbers are selected using random-digit-dial methods. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday.

Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, and phone status (cell phone only/landline only/both, cell phone mostly, and having an unlisted landline number). Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2011 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

225-43-24. Obama’s Approval Rating Inching Closer to 50% in United States

(05/22/12) -

Congress gains points, but three-in-five Americans disapprove of its performance.

Practically half of Americans are satisfied with the performance of the incumbent president, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample of 1,012 American adults, 49 per cent of respondents approve of the way Barack Obama is handling his duties (+1 since March), while 46 per cent (-2) disapprove.

This month, Obama has his best marks in the Northeast (57%, +2) and his lowest numbers in the South (43%).

The level of strong approval for Obama increased by three points since March (19%), while the level of strong disapproval dropped by the same margin (30%).

Over the past two months, the approval rating for the U.S. Congress increased by two points to 17 per cent. Still, three-in-five Americans (75%, -2) remain unhappy with the performance of the House of Representatives and the Senate.

Only two per cent of Americans strongly approve of their federal lawmakers, while 44 per cent strongly disapprove. This month, the worst rating for Congress is once again in the Midwest (13%) while the best is in the Northeast (23%).

Analysis

For the first time since July 2011, Barack Obama has a larger group of Americans approving of his performance than disapproving of it. The survey, conducted after the president made his pronouncement about same-sex marriage, also shows Obama connecting better with Democrats, whose level of strong approval increased by six points since March. On the other hand, more than half of Independents (54%) remain skeptical.

The rating for Congress has remained below the 20 per cent mark for almost one full year, with Democrats, Republicans and Independents continuing to voice displeasure with its actions.

Methodology: From May 16 to May 17, 2012, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 1,012 American adults who are Springboard America panelists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 3.1%. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region Census data to ensure a sample representative of the entire adult population of the United States. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.

225-43-25. Obama, Romney Each Has Economic Strengths With Americans

Obama preferred for healthcare costs; Romney preferred for deficit

May 21, 2012

PRINCETON, NJ -- Americans see the cost of healthcare, the federal budget deficit, and unemployment as the most important economic issues facing the country today, according to a new USA Today/Gallup poll asking them to rate the importance of 10 such issues. More than 80% rate each of the top three issues as extremely or very important. Americans prefer President Obama over Mitt Romney for handling healthcare, while Romney is favored on the deficit and the two are about tied on unemployment.

At least seven in 10 Americans rate four other issues as extremely or very important: weak economic growth, the cost of a college education, the financial performance of savings or retirement investments, and home values/foreclosures/mortgages. Of these, Romney has a significant edge over Obama in voter confidence for how he would handle weak economic growth as well as the financial performance of personal investments. Obama has a sizable advantage on college costs, and the two are roughly tied on handling home values and financing issues.

Obama has a 28-percentage-point advantage over Romney -- the largest for any issue in the poll -- in Americans' perceptions of which candidate, as president, would better handle living standards for the poorest Americans. However, with 69% rating this extremely or very important, it is a somewhat lower priority for Americans than the top tier of issues.

Obama also does well in perceptions of who can better handle the concentration of wealth in the country -- an issue Obama is heavily invested in politically, with his support for the so-called Buffett rule and his broader call for raising taxes on the wealthy. However, only the slight majority of Americans, 54%, view this as a highly important economic issue.

Obama and Romney are closely matched for handling government regulations on private enterprise. This is a common political touchstone for Romney and other Republicans, but something barely half of Americans, 51%, see as highly important.

Partisans Largely Identify Same Economic Issues as Most Important

When it comes to Americans' top three issues, Republicans put a little more emphasis than Democrats on the federal budget deficit, and Democrats put a little more emphasis than Republicans on healthcare costs, while the two parties have similar perceptions about unemployment. Overall, large majorities of both groups consider all three of these issues highly important.

Among the lower-ranking issues, weak economic growth is uniformly rated by the party groups as highly important. However, more Democrats than Republicans rate college costs (89% vs. 67%, respectively) and the living standards of poor Americans (81% vs. 61%) as highly important issues. Republicans are more concerned than Democrats about government regulations on private enterprise (61% vs. 48%).

The widest partisan gap in the poll is seen in ratings of the concentration of wealth, with 72% of Democrats rating it extremely or very important, compared with 41% of Republicans.

Independents' views are close to the national averages, with large majorities calling healthcare, the federal budget deficit, and unemployment highly important, but closer to 50% seeing the concentration of wealth and government regulation as highly important.

Bottom Line

Unless the U.S. economy suddenly takes off, the next president will likely be expected to juggle a number of challenging economic problems, just as President Obama has strived to do since he took office. Americans see the most important of these as healthcare costs, the federal budget deficit, and unemployment. However, neither Obama nor Romney is perceived as superior on all three. Rather, Americans see Obama as better for healthcare costs, see Romney as better for the deficit, and have no clear candidate preference when it comes to unemployment.

This overall split decision actually extends to all 10 issues measured in the poll, with Romney favored by a significant margin on three issues and Obama on four, while the two are about tied on three others.

If the candidates decide to emphasize their perceived issue strengths with voters, Romney will be talking most about the deficit, economic growth, and improving conditions for savings and other investments. Obama will be talking about healthcare costs, college costs, and achieving greater economic fairness for poor and rich alike. However, when factoring in the priorities of political independents -- the group most likely to determine who wins in November -- the candidates may want to emphasize their ability to address the top-tier economic concerns and downplay attention to the more partisan-oriented issues of redistributing wealth and reducing government regulation, as these may detract from a winning message. Notably, unemployment and housing are highly important economic issues to Americans, but neither candidate holds an advantage on them -- making these opportunity issues for both candidates.

Survey Methods

Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted May 10-13, 2012, with a random sample of 1,012 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia.

For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each sample includes a minimum quota of 400 cell phone respondents and 600 landline respondents per 1,000 national adults, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents by region. Landline telephone numbers are chosen at random among listed telephone numbers. Cell phone numbers are selected using random-digit-dial methods. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday.

Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, and phone status (cell phone only/landline only/both, cell phone mostly, and having an unlisted landline number). Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2011 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

225-43-26. Conservatives Steady, NDP Gains at the Expense of Liberals in Canada

(05/24/12) -

Thomas Mulcair’s national approval rating is boosted by the 70 per cent of Quebecers who are satisfied with his performance.

The governing Conservative Party’s advantage over the opposition New Democratic Party (NDP) has shrunk in Canada over the past two months, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found.

The online survey of a representative national sample of 1,014 Canadians also shows that the national approval rating for both Prime Minister Stephen Harper and opposition leader Thomas Mulcair is practically the same, based on the strength of their performances in specific areas of the country.

Voting Intention

Across Canada, 37 per cent of decided voters and leaners (unchanged since March) would support the governing Tories in the next federal election.

The New Democrats remain in second place but have gained four points since March to reach 33 per cent. The Liberal Party is third with 18 per cent (-3), followed by the Bloc Québécois with seven per cent (-1), and the Green Party with four per cent (=).

The Conservatives maintain their position as the most popular party in Alberta (61%), Manitoba and Saskatchewan (49%) and Ontario (41%). In British Columbia, the Tories are virtually even with the NDP (41% to 40%). In Quebec, since Mulcair took over as leader, the New Democrats have gained ten points (43%, with the Bloc a distant second at 27%). The Liberals post their best numbers in Atlantic Canada (35%), but have dropped seven points in Ontario (23%).

Among male decided voters, the Conservatives keep a sizeable lead over the New Democrats (43% to 28%). Among women, the NDP is now the frontrunner (39%), with the Tories eight points behind (31%). The New Democrats also have a double-digit lead over the Conservatives among voters aged 18-to-34 (40% to 30%). The Tories hold a 12-point advantage among Canadians over the age of 55 (41% to 29%).

Three federal parties—Conservatives, New Democrats and the Bloc—are holding on to at least four-in-five of the voters who supported them in last year’s federal election. The Liberals have a retention rate of 72 per cent, and are losing one-in-five voters (21%) to the Mulcair-led NDP. The Greens can count on the support of two thirds of their 2011 voters (66%), but would see 26 per cent of them support the New Democrats instead.

Approval and Momentum

The approval rating for New Democratic Party (NDP) and Official Opposition leader Thomas Mulcair is 46 per cent, while Prime Minister and Conservative Party leader Stephen Harper checks in this month at 45 per cent. One third of Canadians approve of the way interim Liberal Party leader Bob Rae (34%) and Green Party leader Elizabeth May (also 34%) are performing their duties.

While the numbers for Harper and Mulcair are very similar, it is their regional popularity that places them in similar footing across Canada. Harper gets high marks in Alberta (73%), Manitoba and Saskatchewan (53%), but only garners the approval of 28 per cent of Quebecers. Conversely, Mulcair’s performance gets a positive review from 70 per cent of Quebecers, but only one-in-five Albertans (20%).

The momentum score for the four national party leaders is negative this month, with Mulcair (-1), May (-4) and Rae (-8) posting better numbers than Harper (-29).

Analysis

The official arrival of Thomas Mulcair to the federal political scene has provided a boost to the New Democrats, who have gained four points in two months and are the most popular political force in Quebec. The NDP is also now virtually tied with the Conservatives in British Columbia, and has clearly surpassed the Liberals to become the second choice for voters in Ontario.

The NDP’s gains have not affected the Conservatives, who are still ahead in Ontario and can count on the support of most voters in Alberta. The New Democrats are benefitting from an erosion of Liberal and Green support. The Grits are now at 18 per cent at the national level, with particularly low numbers in British Columbia (13%) and Quebec (10%). The Greens are seeing one-in-four of their voters saying they would vote for the Mulcair-led NDP.

Methodology: From May 22 to May 23, 2012, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 1,014 randomly selected Canadian adults who are Angus Reid Forum panellists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region Census data to ensure a sample representative of the entire adult population of Canada. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.

AUSTRALASIA

225-43-27. Australian Multi-Screen Report Shows Tv Viewing Strong, 

New Devices Create New Opportunities To View

• Estimated 15% of Australian homes now have tablets

• Video viewing via PCs and mobile devices rises rapidly from small base

• Largest available screen dominates: 96% of all video still viewed on conventional TV set

• Australians spend approx 100 hours/month with traditional TV: up 1.2% year-on-year

22 May, 2012

An estimated 15% of Australian households now own at least one tablet device, according to the latest Australian Multi-Screen Report covering the first quarter of calendar 2012. New technologies are creating additional opportunities to view, keeping consumers engaged with broadcast television and enabling them to watch when and where they like.

The report also reinforces findings from the previous edition (Q4 2011): viewing via conventional TV sets remains strong and is rising due to the increasing use of Personal Video Recorders (PVRs), now in 47% of homes, coupled with digital terrestrial television (DTT) penetration approaching 100%.

More digital televisions sets in Australian homes mean more available channels per home, resulting in higher viewing levels. 96% of homes can receive DTT and 74% have converted every set in the home to digital, up from 55% a year ago.

Key findings as of Q1 (January-March) 2012

• An estimated 15% of Australian households now own at least one tablet device

• Viewing of any video (both television broadcast content and other available video) on PCs, smartphones and tablets is growing rapidly, albeit from a small base

• Viewers overwhelmingly watch on the largest screen available to them: 96% of all video viewing still is via the conventional TV set1

• Viewing on conventional TVs is strong with time spent rising 1.2% year-on-year

Doug Peiffer, CEO, OzTAM, said: "The use of new devices will continue to grow – as seen in the estimated 15% of Australian households that already have a tablet device. PCs and mobile devices are creating additional opportunities to view, in the process keeping consumers close to the content.

"Amid the excitement about such technologies though, Australians' TV habits remain largely unchanged. People still enjoy nearly 100 hours of television on the conventional set every month, and 96% of viewing is still to the traditional in-home TV.

"The quarterly insights provided by the Australian Multi-Screen Report provide a better understanding of how much viewing is actually going to various devices – drawing on the best available measurement sources in Nielsen, OzTAM and Regional TAM – to assist the industry in planning and forecasting."

Matt Bruce, MD of Nielsen’s media group in Australia, added: “The Australian Multi-Screen Report again highlights that Australians' fast adoption of smart phones and tablets is in fact broadening the viewing opportunities of TV across multiple platforms.

"Our Nielsen Online Consumer Report 2012 forecasts that growth of tablet use among online Australians will more than double this year to 39%, while smart phone ownership is expected to reach 64%. The rapid rise of these devices and new technologies is further extending Australians’ TV viewing opportunities, and our Multi-Screen report is providing media owners, agencies and advertisers with clarity and actionable insights into the way multiple screens are reaching and engaging with consumers”

Deborah Wright, the Chair of Regional TAM, said: “The information gathered to produce this report also highlights that multi-screen viewing is consistent right across regional and metropolitan Australia with no material variations in any key findings.”

Detailed findings

1. Take-up of tablets is increasing

• An estimated 15% of Australian households have at least one tablet device

• Watching any video content on tablets grew from just 2% of the total online population at the end of 2010 to 5% by the end of 2011 (Source; Nielsen 2012 Australian Online Consumer report)

2. TV viewing is strong

• Households have greater choice and access to DTT:

o 96% of all homes have at least one DTT-enabled TV set (up from 90% in Q1 2011)

o 74% of homes can receive DTT on every working TV set in the home (55% in Q1 2011)

• 47% of households have time-shifting devices such as PVRs (up from 37% in Q1 2011)

• Combined, these factors give viewers greater choice and access to television content and are stimulating viewing via the conventional TV set:

o Average monthly time spent viewing television broadcast content in the home via conventional TV sets is up by 1 hour and 12 minutes year-on-year, now at 97 minutes and 15 seconds. (All People figures; TV viewing behaviour of course fluctuates seasonally, with viewing increasing in winter time)

o Average monthly time spent viewing playback (recorded) TV content is up by 1 hour and 36 minutes since Q1 2011, now at 6 hours 33 minutes per month

• Approximately 99% of Australian households have at least one working TV set. Overall TV monthly reach (that is, where people watch at least some television during the period) is steady year-on-year at 98% of Australians nationally 3. Video viewing on PCs is rising but remains small in comparison to conventional TV

• 78% of households are connected to the Internet (77% in Q1 2011), providing potential access to online television video content

• Australians spent an average of 3 hours and 15 minutes per month watching any online video (not just television broadcast related content) in Q1 2012, up from 2 hours and 7 minutes in Q1 2011

4. Smartphone take-up is increasing but video viewing on such devices remains small

• An estimated 48% of Australians aged 16+ years own a smartphone (35% in Q1 2011)

• As of Q4 2011 (the latest figures available), users spent an average 1 hour and 20 minutes per month watching any video (not just television broadcast content) on a mobile phone (35 minutes in Q1 2011), suggesting use of such devices to view TV content remains small

5. There is a strong and positive relationship between screen size and propensity to view, with people demonstrating a preference to watch content on the largest screen available:

• 96% of all video viewing still goes to the traditional TV set

• The combination of the extended screens (PC and mobile phone usage) for any video content still accounts for just 4% of the video consumption on traditional TV sets:

o 3 hours 15 minutes per month on PCs (All People)

o 1 hour 20 minutes per month on mobiles (people aged 16+; Q4 2011)

o 97 hours 15 minutes per month on a traditional TV (All People)

MULTI-COUNTRY STUDIES

225-43-28. Economic Crisis Has Lasting Effect on Wellbeing Worldwide

Wellbeing in negative territory in Middle East and North Africa

May 25, 2012

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Except for a clear dip in 2009 after the global economic meltdown in 2008, Gallup wellbeing studies show that, on average, about one in four adults worldwide have consistently rated their lives well enough to be considered "thriving." The percentage of adults considered "suffering" on the other hand, has increased and stayed relatively high. The trend in the difference between the two -- "net wellbeing" -- suggests global wellbeing has yet to fully rebound from the economic crisis.

Gallup classifies respondents as "thriving," "struggling," or "suffering" according to how they rate their current and future lives on a ladder scale with steps numbered from 0 to 10 based on the Cantril Self-Anchoring Striving Scale. Those who rate their present life a 7 or higher and their live in five years an 8 or higher are classified as thriving, while those who rate both dimensions a 4 or lower are considered suffering. Respondents whose ratings fall in between are considered struggling.

Many factors likely contributed to the drop in net wellbeing, but the global economic crisis that began in 2008 is a prime suspect. Other major regional events, including the Arab Spring and the wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, and other conflicts may have also affected people's evaluations of their lives.

Suffering Most Likely to Be Poor, Vulnerable

Thriving worldwide rebounded relatively quickly after the economic crisis, while high suffering persisted, suggesting that effects of the global crisis likely have been more lasting for those who were most vulnerable financially when it hit. That it has been tougher for some to recover economically and psychologically makes sense given that thriving and suffering are highly related to household income. People with the lowest household incomes -- the lowest 40%, who live on $2 a day or less per person -- are more likely to be suffering than thriving. The reverse is true for those in the top 10% of household incomes, where more than half (55%) are thriving.

Wellbeing Deficit in Middle East and North Africa

Across regions, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), Europe, and the U.S. and Canada saw the most negative effects on net wellbeing between 2006 and 2011. In MENA, declining thriving and rising suffering created a wellbeing deficit in the region in 2011. An average of 19% of residents in MENA were suffering last year, surpassing the 17% who were thriving, resulting in a net wellbeing score of -2.

Net wellbeing in the U.S. and Canada and Europe did not change as drastically as in MENA, but declines in each region illustrate that these regions have not yet recovered from the global economic crisis and reflect their ongoing economic troubles.

Wellbeing More Positive in Latin America and Caribbean

Net wellbeing in Latin America and the Caribbean actually increased after the crisis hit in 2008, likely reflecting how strong fiscal reform in countries such as Brazil helped their populations weather the economic storm. Thriving increased in Latin America and the Caribbean after 2008, hovering near 50% since, and suffering remains in the low single digits. In fact, thriving worldwide was able to return to pre-2008 levels primarily because of the increase in thriving in this region.

In sub-Saharan Africa, net wellbeing has been relatively low and relatively constant, only emerging from negative territory for the first time in 2011 as suffering in the region declined. Wellbeing was somewhat more fluid in Asia, where more people have been suffering than thriving since 2009. Thriving in Asia has remained relatively flat, whereas suffering percentages have increased substantially since 2008 and stayed high.

Bottom Line

Gallup's studies of wellbeing since 2006 show the global economic crisis that began in 2008 and other subsequent major events have left their mark on worldwide wellbeing. Although thriving has returned to pre-2009 levels, suffering remains elevated. This suggests that although economic recovery is underway in many parts of the world, many of those who are suffering may not be feeling it.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone and face-to-face interviews with approximately 1,000 adults in each country in each of the regions mentioned in this article, aged 15 and older, conducted between 2006 and 2011. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error ranged from a low of ±0.4 percentage points to a high of ±3.8 percentage points. The margin of error reflects the influence of data weighting. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

225-43-29. In Europe, Migrants Rate Their Lives Worse Than Native Born

Migrants' financial wellbeing improves as their length of stay increases

May 21, 2012

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Migrants in 15 European Union countries, regardless of how long they have lived in those countries, rate their lives worse than the native born. Native-born residents on average rate their lives today a 6.6 on a 10-step ladder scale, where 10 represents the best possible life and 0 is the worst. Long-time migrants rate their current lives a 6.0 and newcomers a 5.9.

These data suggest that the way migrants assess their lives does not improve the longer they live in a country. Gallup defines migrants who moved to their current country of residence less than five years ago as newcomers, while those who have been living in their adopted country for at least five years are considered long-timers. Because of relatively large differences in certain demographic characteristics, Gallup adjusted the data for age, gender, and education differences among the three groups.

There are no differences in how long-timers and newcomers evaluate their lives, based on the Cantril Self-Anchoring Striving Scale. When evaluating their lives, residents are likely considering a number of factors, including their standard of living, housing, job, marriage, and personal health. Gallup research shows thatat the national level, evaluative wellbeing correlates with income, education, and health.

The lack of improvement in migrants' life evaluations as they spend more time in their adopted country contrasts with the changes they report in their financial wellbeing. Long-timers are more likely than newcomers to report living comfortably on their current household income, and less likely to say they lacked money to buy food or provide shelter for themselves and their families in the past 12 months.

These results suggest that migrants' financial status may improve as they stay longer in their new country. But long-timers still trail the native born by a relatively large margin on these measures.

Overall, migrants, especially newcomers, are far more likely than the native born to be unemployed (not working and actively looking for work) or underemployed (unemployed or working part time but wanting full-time work).

Migrants Experience More Negative Emotions

Experiential wellbeing, which measures a set of positive and negative feelings individuals experience during the day, provides an important dimension of migrants' emotional experiences in their country of residence. Newcomers are the most likely to report feeling a lot of worry, sadness, depression, and stress the day prior to the survey, while all migrants are equally likely to report feeling anger. When asked about positive experiences, migrants are less likely than the native born to report feeling a lot of such emotions the day before the survey, although the differences are not as large as for negative emotions.

Bottom Line

Gallup's findings suggest that while migrants' financial wellbeing improves with their length of residence in their adopted country, their life evaluations remain flat. This more positive financial situation suggests some economic mobility, at least for some migrants. However, even long-time migrants face higher unemployment and underemployment and struggle more financially than do the native born. The results also suggest that factors other than economics are at play in migrants' evaluative wellbeing.

Between 2004 and 2009, population growth in the EU was primarily the result of net migration. It is likely that immigration and migrants' integration will remain hot issues in Europe. As such, the Gallup findings provide important evidence of the migrant experience on which to base discussion.

The full results of this analysis appeared in the May issue of Migration Letters.

Anita Pugliese and Kirti Kanitkar contributed to this report.

Survey Methods

Results are based on with more than 25,000 adults, aged 15 and older, conducted in 2009 and 2010 via telephone in Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom and face-to-face in Greece. A total of 23,023 interviews were conducted among the native born, 1,928 interviews among long-timers, and 420 interviews among newcomers.

CYBER WORLD

225-43-30. Facebook IPO Not Selling On Social Media

May 21, 2012

Facebook’s May 18 IPO—which set the market value of the social-networking giant at $105 billion—sparked significant discussion on Twitter, blogs and Facebook itself, with more expressions of skepticism than confidence about the stock's value, according to a report by the Pew Research Center's Project for Excellence in Journalism.

Users of Twitter were the most doubtful, as almost four times as much of the overall conversation from May 14-20 (22%) consisted of claims that Facebook stock was overhyped than it was worth buying (6%). Blogs and Facebook also included more doubt than optimism, although by smaller margins. Even on Facebook, though, the gap was nearly two-to-one.

Beyond the straight news accounts regarding the facts of the IPO (which made up roughly a quarter of the conversation across all platforms), the largest topic differed by social media outlet.

On Twitter, fully 22% of the conversation consisted of suggestions that the value of Facebook was overhyped or overpriced. Many tweets warned against buying stock while others declared that the results of the first day, where the closing share price of $38.23 was just slightly above the initial offering value of $38, meant that the company’s debut had failed.

 In the blogosphere, a quarter of the conversation (25%) focused on Facebook co-founder Eduardo Saverin’s decision to relinquish his U.S. citizenship just prior to the IPO. Bloggers connected Saverin’s move with larger political and economic debates. Some argued he was dodging his U.S. tax obligations while others claimed his decision demonstrated the dangers of high taxes and regulation.

 On Facebook itself, more than a third (34%) of the conversation revolved around Facebook founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg. Some discussed Zuckerberg’s growing financial worth, while many issued well-wishes to him on his May 14 birthday and after learning of his May 19 wedding to Priscilla Chan.

On all three platforms, the tone and focus on the conversations changed little from before and after the May 18 IPO. The exception was the increase in attention paid to Zuckerberg when news of his wedding became public the day following the historic IPO.