This week report consists of twenty one national surveys, three multi-country studies, two business leaders’ polls, a poll based analysis, and an article based on net traffic analysis of Wikipedia.

415-43-29: Commentary: Wikipedia at 15: Millions of readers in scores of languages

Wikipedia at 15: Millions of readers in scores of languages

January 14, 2016

Wikipedia turns 15 on Friday. A key element in its creators’ vision of a user-generated online encyclopedia was to make it a repository of information serving audiences in multiple languages. The first non-English versions launched shortly after the Wikipedia’s founding in 2001, with offerings in six languages – German, Catalan, Swedish, French, Spanish and Russian. Today, the site is available in 280 languages. A new Pew Research Center analysis of the most visited pages in each of Wikipedia’s top 10 languages provides a window on how people in different societies and cultures use the international reference tool.

Wikipedia averages more than 18 billion page views per month, making it one of the most visited websites in the world, according to Alexa.com, a Web tracking company owned by Amazon. The site adds more than 20,000 new articles each month and has 27 million registered users, according to data reported by Wikipedia.

New analysis: See a list of the most visited Wikipedia articles by language in 2015.

To compare different language versions of Wikipedia, Pew Research Center drew on data from stats.wikimedia.org – Wikimedia is the foundation that runs Wikipedia – for the number of overall page views. For the data regarding the top pages by language, we compiled and analyzed hourly raw page count files posted by Wikimedia. Additional analysis was performed using data compiled by Wikitrends, an independent site run by Johan Gunnarsson and based on data from Wikipedia.

Here’s what we found:

§ The top pages in the English-language version of Wikipedia are a mix of subjects that include references to current events (ISIS), websites (Facebook, Google) and popular media (a list of Bollywood films, “Star Wars,” “Game of Thrones”).

§ The list for the Japanese version, on the other hand, is made up mostly of pop culture subjects. Seven of the top 10 pages are from the world of comics, movies or music.

§ Sports were popular on the Spanish version – volleyball and basketball were the second and third most popular pages, respectively, while Copa America 2015 was the seventh largest. History was also popular, with World War II as the sixth largest and World War I the ninth.

§ Social networking was popular in Russian. Rival social platforms VK and Classmates were No. 2 and No. 9, respectively.

These lists of the most popular pages in 2015 also demonstrate the international popularity of American television shows and movies. The page for the movie “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” was not only sixth on the English version, but also appeared in the top 10 for Italian, Portuguese, Japanese and Polish. The fantasy TV series “Game of Thrones” was also popular. That show was among the most viewed pages in English, German, Russian, Italian and French. The TV series “The Walking Dead” and “The Big Bang Theory” also appeared among the top pages.

Despite the explosion of content and Web traffic in dozens of languages, the English version is still by far the biggest and most popular. It had approximately 97 billion page views — more than six times that of Japanese, the next most popular version. The versions in three other languages, Spanish, German and Russian, had more than 10 billion page views. Further illustrating the gap in Web traffic, the most visited article on the English version, List of deaths by year, alone had more page views (20.8 million last year) than the top 10 most viewed pages in Japanese combined.

As Wikipedia grew in prominence, there were several key events that thrust it into the news.

In 2004, China blocked access to the Chinese version in anticipation of the 15th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square protests of 1989. In the years since, the Chinese government has vacillated between blocking parts of the site and allowing access.

In 2006, it was discovered that congressional staffers had been editing pages to make changes to political biographies. That was just one instance in a long-running list of episodes where Wikipedia posts had become a battleground for partisans or others with agendas. Indeed, the whole concept of Wikipedia wars has led to many protracted debates and eventual rule-making the community and editors of the site over how articles should be edited.

The leaders of Wikipedia itself have generally stayed out of public policy disputes, with one notable exception. On Jan.18, 2012, the site went dark for 24 hours – along with thousands of other sites – to protest two anti-piracy laws before Congress known as SOPA (Stop Online Piracy Act) and PIPA (PROTECT IP Act). Many believed these laws would have led to censorship on the Web. The move was partially responsible for the decision by congressional leaders two days later to postpone the legislation. The bills have yet to be reintroduced.

Source: http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/01/14/wikipedia-at-15/

SUMMARY

MENA

Tunisians Believe Country Is Headed in Wrong Direction; Pessimistic on Economy, Concerned over Terrorism

A new poll released by IRI Center for Insights in Survey Research found that pessimism regarding the economy has reached its highest point since Tunisia’s democratic transition began in 2011. With continued economic stagnation and terrorism weighing heavily on the public, 83 percent of respondents believe Tunisia is headed in the wrong direction. (IRI)

January 13, 2016

Emirates, Almarai and Facebook crowned most positively perceived brands in 2015

The 2015 annual BestBrand Rankings released by YouGov using our flagship daily brand tracker, BrandIndex, have crowned national airline Emirates, mega food and beverage manufacturer Almarai and world renowned social media giant Facebook as the most positively perceived brands in the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Egypt respectively, in 2015. (YouGov)

January 17, 2016

SOUTHEAST ASIA

Philippines: Hunger falls to 11.7% of families; Moderate Hunger 8.9%, Severe Hunger 2.8%

The Fourth Quarter 2015 Social Weather Survey, conducted from December 5-8, 2015, found 11.7% or an estimated 2.6 million families experiencing involuntary hunger at least once in the past three months. (The measure of Hunger refers to involuntary suffering because the respondents answer a survey question that specifies hunger due to lack of food to eat.) (SWS)

January 13, 2016

NORTHEAST ASIA

Chinese tourists spend 229 billion USD in 2015

China hits 109 million outbound tourists in 2015; South Korea and Thailand overtake Hong Kong as most popular destinations; Europe beats North America as most popular destination outside of Asia. (GFK)

January 14, 2016

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Despite progress, basic infrastructure still a challenge in Africa

Despite progress over the past decade, the development of infrastructure for electricity, water, sewerage, and roads remains an enormous challenge across Africa, especially in rural areas, new Afrobarometer survey data indicate. In contrast, cell phone service is approaching universal coverage. (Afrobarometer)

January 14, 2016

EAST EUROPE

Pessimism High after Two Years of Violent Conflict with Russia; People in the Ukrainian-Controlled Territories of Donbas Want to Remain Part of Ukraine

A new poll released by the IRI Center for Insights in Survey Research found that after nearly two years of war and an onslaught of Russian propaganda, pessimism is high throughout the country, particularly in the areas of the Donbas region governed by national authorities (Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts). However, despite the war and Russia’s propaganda, an overwhelming majority of Donbas residents in these areas want to remain part of Ukraine. (IRI)

January 12, 2016

Russia: Labor Mobility: 1990-2015

Every second Russian is ready to move to another Russian city in favor of a well-paid job. (VCIOM)

December 21, 2016

Russian “Turn To The East”

Russians see more benefits in the Eastern orientation of the Russian political and economic policies. (VCIOM)

December 21, 2016

Russia’s Partners Across The Post-Soviet Space

Russians believe that Belarus and Kazakhstan are the most successful CIS countries and main Russia’s partners. (VCIOM)

December 10, 2016

More than four in five business leaders hope for “remain” vote in EU referendum

More than four in five business leaders hope UK voters will vote to “remain” in the forthcoming EU referendum according to a new Ipsos MORI study. (Ipsos MORI)

January 11, 2016

UK: Widespread public support for junior doctors’ strike

New polling from Ipsos MORI for BBC Newsnight and the Health Service Journal finds support in England for the planned junior doctors’ strikes, as long as emergency care is still provided. The survey of 869 adults in England finds a clear majority (66%) support junior doctors striking as long as emergency care is provided. More than two in five (41%) say they are strongly supportive. Conversely, only 16% oppose the strikes. (Ipsos MORI)

January 11, 2016

Senior business figures optimistic about business prospects for 2016

The majority of leaders of the UK’s biggest companies are optimistic about prospects for their company in 2016 according to a new Ipsos MORI study. (Ipsos MORI)

January 11, 2016

UK: Introduce an English national anthem: Land of Hope and Glory

Most British people support the idea of England having its own national anthem – and Land of Hope and Glory beats the competition. (YouGov)

January 15, 2016

German attitudes to immigration harden following Cologne attacks

62% of Germans now say the number of asylum seekers is too high, up from 53% in November – driven mainly by the hardening attitudes of women. (YouGov)

January 12, 2016

NORTH AMERICA

Government, Economy Return as Most Important U.S. Problems

Americans who say terrorism is the nation's top problem fell to 9% this month, after jumping to 16% in December in the wake of terror attacks in San Bernardino, California, and Paris. With concern about terrorism down, the government and the economy have resumed their top-ranking positions on Gallup's list of most important problems, with 16% in early January mentioning some aspect of government and 13% naming the economy. These issues ranked either first or second on the list for most of 2015. (Gallup USA)

January 17, 2016

U.S. Split on Whether Obama, GOP Congress Should Set Course

Americans are about evenly divided in their preference for who should have more influence over the direction the nation takes in the next year, with 46% saying the Republicans in Congress and 42% saying President Barack Obama. Americans have been mostly split on this question during Obama's presidency, with the major exception coming right after the GOP success in the 2014 midterm elections when the Republicans had a sizable lead. (Gallup USA)

January 13, 2016

Americans' Dissatisfaction With U.S. Gun Laws at New High

Sixty-two percent of Americans are dissatisfied with the nation's laws or policies on guns, the highest percentage dissatisfied since Gallup's first Mood of the Nation poll in 2001. Dissatisfaction jumped 11 percentage points in one year. (Gallup USA)

January 14, 2016

As Obama Delivers SOTU, 23% Satisfied With Direction of U.S.

As President Barack Obama prepares to deliver his final State of the Union address, 23% of Americans are satisfied with the way things are going in the U.S. This percentage is lower than the 32% who were satisfied in January 2015, but it matches the average for Obama's time in office so far. (Gallup USA)

January 12, 2016

Sanders' Image Up Among Dems; Clinton Still Maintains Edge

As Democratic presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders approach their final debate before the Feb. 1 Iowa caucuses, Clinton (+57) maintains a net favorability advantage over Sanders (+48) among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents. While Clinton's current score is about par for the course, Sanders is his highest to date, as he has become more familiar to the party faithful. (Gallup USA)

January 15, 2016

The 2016 State of the Union: Considering the Public's Opinion

President Barack Obama delivered his final State of the Union address this week, providing an opportunity to analyze existing public opinion about some of the proposals and assertions he made in his speech. (Gallup USA)

January 15, 2016

Privacy and Information Sharing

Many Americans say they might provide personal information, depending on the deal being offered and how much risk they face. (Gallup USA)

January 14, 2016

52% of Americans, including a majority of adults under 65, support legalising marijuana

In recent years the legal, and political, environment surrounding marijuana in America has been transformed. Four states have now fully legalised marijuana for recreational purposes and many others have either decriminalised possession or passed laws to allow medical marijuana. New York, which traditionally has had strict drug laws, has become the latest state to allow medical marijuana. Marijuana is still strictly illegal at a federal level but in general the federal government will not take action against people who are not breaking state laws or faciliating the interstate trade in marijuana. (YouGov)

Canadians say our moral values are weakening four-to-one over those who say they’re getting stronger

Just one-in-ten Canadians see moral values strengthening in this country, while the vast majority agree that having an affair is “morally unacceptable.” Beyond that, an Angus Reid Institute public opinion poll finds a country divided by gender, age, region and religious belief when it comes to the state of morality today. (Angus Reid)

January 13, 2016

AUSTRALASIA

Australian Roy Morgan Business Confidence declines further in December

Roy Morgan Research’s Business Confidence declined by a further 4.2 points in December (down 3.5% to 114.5), following on from the November decline of 0.6 points (down 0.5%). The combined drop of 4.8 points (down 4.0%) over the last two months is a likely indication that the initial burst of confidence following Malcolm Turnbull becoming Prime Minister is beginning to “cool off”, although it still remains 11.6% above the level prior to his appointment. (Roy Morgan)

January 13, 2016

Natural yoghurt: more than flavour of the month

Just ask Justin Bieber: one minute, you’re flavour of the month, the next, you’re on the downward slide, a casualty of the public’s changing tastes — which is precisely what seems to be happening with yoghurt in Australia, the latest findings from Roy Morgan Research reveal. Over the last few years, flavoured/fruit yoghurt has been gradually losing popularity, as an increasing number of Australians turn to natural/plain yoghurt instead. (Roy Morgan)

Jannuary 15, 2016

MULTI-COUNTRY STUDIES

Income Inequality Hurts Life Ratings Worldwide

The persistent rise in the share of income that the top 1% in many countries hold may be hurting the reported life ratings of the other 99%, with concerning implications for public health and national productivity, new research shows. A 1% increase in the share of taxable income held by the top 1% hurts life satisfaction as much as a 1.4% increase in the country-level unemployment rate.

January 13, 2016

Global Prosperity Hinges on Closing Jobs-Education Gap

The future of the global workforce -- and by extension, future prosperity and well-being worldwide -- relies in no small part on establishing better links between jobs and education. That theme resounded strongly throughout the day at Diplomatic Couriermagazine's annual Global Talent Summit, hosted by Gallup in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 13. (Gallup USA)

January 15, 2016

Wikipedia at 15: Millions of readers in scores of languages

January 14, 2016

MENA

415-43-1/POLL

Tunisians Believe Country Is Headed in Wrong Direction; Pessimistic on Economy, Concerned over Terrorism

Center for Insights Poll

January 13, 2016

Tunis, Tunisia – A new poll released today by IRI Center for Insights in Survey Research found that pessimism regarding the economy has reached its highest point since Tunisia’s democratic transition began in 2011. With continued economic stagnation and terrorism weighing heavily on the public, 83 percent of respondents believe Tunisia is headed in the wrong direction.

Tunisians’ Frustration Peaks amid Economic Stagnation

With few tangible economic improvements, 86 percent of those polled rate the economy as bad or somewhat bad. Only 36 percent have a favorable opinion of government performance, with 1 percent highly favorable. Tunisians’ pessimism about future economic growth is also at its highest since IRI polling began in 2011, with only 30 percent believing their economic situation will improve in the next year.

Tunisians continue to believe job creation should be the government’s top priority, followed by improved living standards and the development of the interior and southern regions. Thirty-four percent of Tunisians believe that the government should reduce corruption to fund spending on its policy priorities, followed by reforms that promote entrepreneurship and the expansion of the private sector. When asked to select the best policy measure to improve the economy, 75 percent of respondents selected facilitating the start of new businesses and allowing small businesses to reach new markets.

Concerns Rise about Recent Terrorist Attacks

“The challenges the government faces in improving the economy are made greater by the public’s current worry about terrorism,” said Scott Mastic, director of Middle East and North Africa programs at IRI.

Since the two terrorist attacks on Tunisian soil in the past year and the attack in Paris*, Tunisians are increasingly mindful of the threat posed by violent extremism. Forty-seven percent feel that it is the number one problem facing Tunisia as a whole, the first time in IRI’s polls that terrorism has overtaken the economy as Tunisians’ first concern.

Support for Democracy Is Mixed

Nearly one year into the government’s tenure, 62 percent of Tunisians are dissatisfied with the performance of the government. However, Tunisians have not yet lost faith in their newfound democracy; there remains significant support for a democratic system of government.

Reflective of overall pessimistic feeling throughout the country, 33 percent feel that Tunisia is not a democracy. Also, limited economic opportunities and a fluid security situation make 56 percent feel prosperity is somewhat more important than democracy. Yet there remains support for a democratic form of government. Forty-eight percent believe democracy is preferable to any other kind of government, despite frustration with the transition.

"The issues of economic opportunity and support for democracy go hand in hand. Tunisia’s ability to implement reforms, increase growth and create jobs, allowing citizens to experience the dividends of democratic governance, is paramount," said Mastic.

Methodology

This is the fifteenth poll IRI has conducted in Tunisia since January 2011, the eleventh since national constituent assembly elections on October 23, 2011 and the second since the 2014 parliamentary and presidential elections. The survey, conducted November 16-25, 2015, was undertaken in cooperation with Elka Consulting, a Tunisia-based survey research firm, and international research firm Chesapeake Beach Consulting of Chesapeake Beach, Maryland. A total of 1,207 interviews were completed, yielding an overall margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percent at the midrange of the 95 percent confidence level. This poll was conducted with support from the Middle East Partnership Initiative of the U.S. Department of State, Bureau of Near East Affairs.

The Center for Insights in Survey Research builds on IRI’s two decades of experience in public opinion research and leverages traditional public opinion research and analysis and new methods to help political parties become more responsive to voters, assist elected officials at all levels of government in improving services to citizens, and foster greater participation by underrepresented groups and by citizens generally in the political process.

*The bombing of the presidential guard bus in Tunis occurred after data collection was completed.

Source: http://www.iri.org/resource/iri-center-insights-poll-tunisians-believe-country-headed-wrong-direction-pessimistic

415-43-2/Multi-country study

Emirates, Almarai and Facebook crowned most positively perceived brands in 2015

January 17, 2016

Using BrandIndex’s Buzz score, which is calculated by asking consumers daily if they have ‘heard anything positive or negative about a brand in the last two weeks, through advertising, news or word-of-mouth’, the Rankings portray the top 10 brands with the highest average Buzz scores and the most positive brand sentiment amongst residents in all three countries in 2015.

It was a tremendous year for Almarai which climbed an impressive five ranks in Saudi Arabia over the last 12 months to take the lead position from Samsung which previously spent three successive years at the top. Samsung was also knocked off pole position in the UAE by national airline Emirates who took back the crown after dropping to second place in 2014.

In Egypt, the Rankings illustrate a firm connection from digital-based brands amongst consumers with Facebook leading positive sentiment from consumers followed closely by Google and YouTube. Digital brands also had a firm grip over positive perception in all three countries taking seven top 10 Rankings places in the UAE, six in Saudi Arabia and five in Egypt overall.

Most notably there's a pronounced appearance from YouTube who is the only brand to debut in the Rankings in all three Middle East countries simultaneously, illustrating its power to resonate positively amongst consumers in 2015.

Airline, finance, food & beverage and property brands dominate the remaining top 10 positions across the three countries. Whilst Emirates is followed most closely by the likes of WhatsApp, Facebook, Apple and iPhone; fellow national airline Etihad Airways makes its debut Rankings entrance in ninth place in the UAE just ahead of Emaar who remains in tenth after entering the top 10 in 2014.

Household food favorites Al Baik and Galaxy feature in the Saudi Arabia Rankings again notching up four successive years in the top 10 whilst Visa still maintains appeal despite dropping three places since arriving in the Rankings in 2014.

The highest non-technological ranked brand achieving positive cut through amongst consumers in Egypt is the National Bank of Egypt, while Galaxy, Almarai, Kit Kat and Banque Misr all feature in the final five in Egypt’s first ever top 10.

YouGov MENA Managing Director, Kailash Nagdev commented, “The dominance of technology brands in all three country Rankings demonstrates the increasing time consumers are spending on digital and social platforms. Most of these digital brands have entered the rankings in the past two years, illustrating the changing media landscape in the region." says YouGov MENA Managing Director, Kailash Nagdev. “Brands who can diversify their marketing strategies and embrace those digital platforms could also stand to win high levels of positive Buzz amongst consumers and follow those with top 10 scores who are already indicating their ability to do so.”

Source: http://research.mena.yougov.com/en/news/2016/01/17/emirates-almarai-and-facebook-crowned-most-positiv/

SOUTHEAST ASIA

415-43-3/POLL

Philippines: Hunger falls to 11.7% of families; Moderate Hunger 8.9%, Severe Hunger 2.8%

Fourth Quarter 2015 Social Weather Survey:

January 13, 2016

The December 2015 Hunger rate is 4.0 points below the 15.7% (est. 3.5 million families) in September 2015.

The 2015 average Hunger rate of 13.4% is 4.9 points below the 2014 average of 18.3%. This is the lowest annual average Hunger rate since the 11.8% average in 2004 [Charts 1 and 2, Table 1].

Moderate Hunger declines, Severe Hunger rises

The 11.7% total Hunger in December 2015 is the sum of 8.9% (est. 2.0 million families) who experiencedModerate Hunger and 2.8% (est. 621,000 families) who experienced Severe Hunger.

Moderate Hunger refers to those who experienced hunger "Only Once" or "A Few Times" in the last three months, while Severe Hunger refers to those who experienced it "Often" or "Always" in the last three months.

The few who did not state their frequency of hunger were classified under Moderate Hunger.

Moderate Hunger fell, while Severe Hunger rose, between September and December 2015.

Moderate Hunger fell by 5.2 points, from 14.1% to 8.9%.

However, Severe Hunger rose by 1.2 points, from 1.6% to 2.8%.

Hunger falls among both Poor and Not Poor/On the Borderline

The 4.0-point fall in Hunger rate amid the steady Self-Rated Poor and the 2-point decline in Self-Rated Food-Poor proportions (BusinessWorld, 6 January 2016), between September and December 2015, was due to falling Hunger among both the Poor and the Not Poor/On the Borderline.

From September to December, overall Hunger (i.e. Moderate plus Severe) fell by 6.5 points among the Self-Rated Poor, from 20.9% to 14.4%. It fell by 1.6 points among the Not Poor/On the Borderline over the same period, from 10.6% to 9.0% [Chart 3].

It fell by 5.2 points among the Self-Rated Food-Poor, from 24.6% to 19.4%. It fell by 3.0 points among theNot Food-Poor/Food-Borderline, from 10.9% to 7.9% [Chart 4].

At any one point in time, Hunger among the Self-Rated Food-Poor is always greater than Hunger among the Self-Rated Poor.

Hunger declines in all areas except Visayas

The national Hunger rate of 11.7% consisted of Hunger in Metro Manila at 17.0% (est. 513,000 families), Balance Luzon at 9.7% (est. 952,000 million families), Visayas at 11.3% (est. 484,000 families), and Mindanao at 13.0% (est. 658,000 families) [Chart 5, Table 2].

Hunger fell by 1.3 points in Metro Manila, from 18.3% (est. 553,000 families) in September to 17.0% in December. This brings the 2015 average Metro Manila Hunger rate to 16.6%, 0.6 point above the 2014 average of 16.0%.

Moderate Hunger in Metro Manila stayed at 14.0% from September to December. Severe Hunger fell by 1.3 points, from 4.3% to 3.0% [Charts 6 to 9, Tables 3 to 6].

Hunger fell by 5.0 points in Balance Luzon, from 14.7% (est. 1.4 million families) to 9.7%, the lowest since 9.7% in June 2011. This brings the 2015 average Hunger rate for this area to 12.4%, 6.9 points below the 19.3% average of 2014. This is the lowest since the 9.4% annual average in 2004.

Moderate Hunger in Balance Luzon fell by 7.3 points, from 13.3% in September to 6.0% in December, the lowest since 5.5% in March 2004. However, Severe Hunger rose by 2.4 points, from 1.3% to 3.7%.

Hunger rose by 2.0 points in Visayas, from 9.3% (est. 399,000 families) to 11.3%. This brings the 2015 average Visayas Hunger rate to 10.8%, 5.8 points below the 16.6% average of 2014. This is the lowest since the 4.5% annual average in 2003.

Moderate Hunger in Visayas rose by 2.3 points, from 9.0% in September to 11.3% in December. Severe Hunger fell by 0.3 point, from 0.3% to 0%, the lowest since 0% in November 2003.

Hunger fell by 8.7 points in Mindanao, from 21.7% (est. 1.1 million families) to 13.0%, the lowest since 13.0% in September 2011. This brings the 2015 average Mindanao Hunger rate to 15.8%, 3.4 points below the 19.2% average of 2014. This is the lowest since the 13.3% annual average in 2005.

Moderate Hunger in Mindanao fell by 10.3 points, from 20.0% in September to 9.7% in December. However, Severe Hunger rose by 1.6 points, from 1.7% to 3.3%.

Survey Background

The December 2015 Social Weather Survey was conducted from December 5-8, 2015 using face-to-face interviews of 1,200 adults (18 years old and above) nationwide, 300 each in Metro Manila, Balance of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao (sampling error margins of ±3% for national percentages, ±6% each for Metro Manila, Balance of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao).

The area estimates were weighted by National Statistics Office medium-population projections for 2015 to obtain the national estimates.

The SWS survey questions about the family's experience of hunger are directed to the household head. These items are non-commissioned, and are always included on SWS's own initiative and released as a public service, with first printing rights assigned to BusinessWorld.

The survey question on Hunger is as follows: "Nitong nakaraang tatlong buwan, nangyari po ba kahit minsan na ang inyong pamilya ay nakaranas ng gutom at wala kayong makain? (OO, HINDI)" ["In the last 3 months, did it happen even once that your family experienced hunger and not have anything to eat? (YES, NO)"].

Those who experienced Hunger were further asked: "Nangyari po ba 'yan ng MINSAN LAMANG, MGA ILANG BESES, MADALAS, o PALAGI?" ["Did it happen ONLY ONCE, A FEW TIMES, OFTEN, or ALWAYS?"].

Moderate Hunger refers to those who experienced hunger "Only Once" or "A Few Times" in the last three months, while Severe Hunger refers to those who experienced it "Often" or "Always" in the last three months.

SWS employs its own staff for questionnaire design, sampling, fieldwork, data-processing, and analysis, and does not outsource any of its survey operations.

Chart 1

Chart 2

Table 1

Source: http://www.sws.org.ph/

NORTHEAST ASIA

415-43-4/POLL

Chinese tourists spend 229 billion USD in 2015

Nuremberg, 14.01.2016

China hits 109 million outbound tourists in 2015; South Korea and Thailand overtake Hong Kong as most popular destinations; Europe beats North America as most popular destination outside of Asia

Nuremberg, January 14, 2016 – GfK’s latest analyses of the Chinese market shows that China produced 109 million outbound tourists in 2015 – with retail spend of US$229 billion. This is a key milestone in China’s outbound tourism history.

These statistics consolidate China’s position as one of the top global sources of tourists, in terms of both number of trips and money spent during international travel. At the same time, there have been profound changes in the behavior of the typical Chinese traveler, with Chinese Millennials firmly established as the core drivers of China’s outbound tourism spending.

Chinese travelers looking for new destinations

Up until 2013, Hong Kong was the preferred destination for China’s outbound tourists, driven by its cultural similarity, lower travel costs and accessibility via short-distance travel. On top of this, Hong Kong offered a shopping paradise, and that was a strong motivating factor for Chinese tourist at that time.

But since 2014, increasing numbers of China’s outbound tourists have been opting for other destinations that offer historical and cultural experiences, as well as shopping.

By the start of November 2015, the top five favorite destinations for Chinese travelers (counting air and overnight visits), were South Korea (representing a traveler increase of 112 percent since 2011), Thailand (up 263 percent), Hong Kong (up 37 percent), Japan (up 157 percent) and Taiwan (up 54 percent).

Europe remains the most popular destination for Chinese travelling outside of Asia, showing an increase of 97 percent in the number of air and overnight visits in the last four years. This is followed by North America (up 151 percent) and the Middle East (up 177 percent). Africa remains the destination least visited by Chinese tourists – but with signs that this could be changing, as visits have risen by 306 percent rise since 2011.

Laurens van den Oever, global head of travel and hospitality research at GfK, comments, “China’s outbound tourists remain strategic to Hong Kong and its businesses – but other destinations are jumping ahead in winning their favor. Destinations such as Hong Kong need to re-evaluate China’s new breed of young and independently-minded travelers, to understand how best to attract them and capitalize on the growth of China’s outbound tourism.”

China’s new set: not ‘tourists’, but ‘travelers’

According to GfK data, half (50 percent) of China’s outbound travelers are aged 15-29 years old – the “millennials” group – while over a third (37 percent) are aged 30-44 and 10 percent are 45-59.

The sheer size of the millennial group within China’s travelers makes this a commercially attractive target audience for those destinations who are looking to draw in Chinese tourists. This attraction is increased by the fact that two thirds (66 percent) of Chinese Millennials belong to the high income bracket. Not only that, but their financial standing is expected to increase as their careers advance, since seven out of ten Millennials hold ‘white collar’ executive or professional jobs.

Understanding the desires that motivate this major section of China’s outbound travelers is therefore paramount.

An annual study from GfK shows that Chinese Millennials are more ambitious than their predecessors, aged 50 and above – and more hedonistic in their willingness to spend money to indulge and pamper themselves. They are also slightly less price sensitive, being the biggest purchasers of luxury goods in Asia Pacific.

Almost more importantly for the travel market is that Chinese Millennials also cherish freedom more than their parents or grandparents; they want the ability to pursue their passions and go after meaningful, adventurous and exciting experiences. They are also technologically savvy with almost everyone owning a smartphone and being highly involved in sharing experiences on social media platform.

For destinations looking to attract this lucrative group, then, the ideal approach is to approach them not as ‘tourists’ but as independent travelers who will respond to opportunities to plan personalized trips.

Source: http://www.gfk.com/insights/press-release/chinese-tourists-spend-229-billion-usd-in-2015/

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

415-43-5/Multi-country study

Despite progress, basic infrastructure still a challenge in Africa

January 14, 2016

Survey findings published today (14 January 2016) in the report “Building on progress: Infrastructure development still a major challenge in Africa”, are based on field-team observations in 35 African countries in 2014/2015. These insights into citizens’ access to basic services are particularly significant as governments and development partners prioritize investments to ensure inclusive growth.

Key findings

 On average across 35 African countries, only about two-thirds of citizens live in communities with an electric grid (65%) and/or piped water infrastructure (63%), and less than one in three have access to sewerage (30%). More than three times as many have access to cell phone service (93%), while about half (54%) live in zones with tarred or paved roads (Figure 1).

 Eighteen countries tracked since 2005/2006 show steady, though slow, progress in infrastructure development. On average, the availability of all five services has increased. Sewerage shows the least progress, with access increasing by just 8 percentage points over the past decade (Figure 2).

 Countries vary enormously in their provision of basic service infrastructure. For example, while availability of electricity and piped water is universal in Mauritius and Egypt, only 17% of Burundians live in zones with an electric grid, and only 17% of Liberians have access to piped water.

 Regional comparisons show North Africa with the best availability of all five services, followed closely by Central Africa. East Africa ranks last in the availability of electricity, piped water, sewerage, and cell phone service.

 Rural residents continue to be severely disadvantaged in most countries, with urbanrural gaps of more than 40 percentage points in the average availability of an electric grid, sewerage, and piped water infrastructure (Figure 3).

Afrobarometer

Afrobarometer is a pan-African, non-partisan research network that conducts public attitude surveys on democracy, governance, economic conditions, and related issues across more than 30 countries in Africa. Five rounds of surveys were conducted between 1999 and 2013, and findings from Round 6 surveys (2014/2015) are currently being released. Afrobarometer conducts face-to-face interviews in the language of the respondent’s choice with nationally representative samples that yield country-level results with margins of error of +/-2% (for samples of 2,400) or +/3% (for samples of 1,200) at a 95% confidence level. Interested readers should watch for additional findings to be released over the coming

months (see http://afrobarometer.org/countries/results-round).

Source: http://www.afrobarometer.org/sites/default/files/press-release/round-6-releases/ab_r6_pr2_infrastructure_remains_challenge_ENG.pdf

EAST EUROPE

415-43-6/POLL

Pessimism High after Two Years of Violent Conflict with Russia; People in the Ukrainian-Controlled Territories of Donbas Want to Remain Part of Ukraine

IRI’s Center for Insights Poll

January 12, 2016

Kyiv, Ukraine – A new pollreleased today by the IRI Center for Insights in Survey Research found that after nearly two years of war and an onslaught of Russian propaganda, pessimism is high throughout the country, particularly in the areas of the Donbas region governed by national authorities (Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts). However, despite the war and Russia’s propaganda, an overwhelming majority of Donbas residents in these areas want to remain part of Ukraine.

“Despite Russia’s continued efforts to drive a wedge between the Donbas and the rest of Ukraine and its continued violations of the Minsk Agreement, as confirmed by President Putin himself, the people of Ukraine, including those living in the Ukrainian-controlled areas of the Donbas, want to preserve the territorial integrity of their country,” said Stephen Nix, director of Eurasia programs at IRI. “There is no doubt that Ukrainians long for the unity and sovereignty of their country, and it is critical that the United States and Europe support Ukraine to ensure that Russia’s occupation does not become permanent.”

Pessimism is High Following Two Years of Violent Conflict with Russia

After two years of deadly conflict with Russia and Russian-supported separatists, which has left more than 9,000 people killed and another 1.5 million displaced, pessimism throughout Ukraine is high, particularly in the Donbas region. When asked if the country were headed in the right or wrong direction, only 15 percent nationwide and eight percent in the Ukrainian-controlled territories of the Donbas region believed Ukraine was headed in the right direction. These findings are consistent with national trends, as Russian aggression in the east has continued to cause great hardship.

This pessimism is also impacting Ukraine’s elected leaders who Ukrainians feel are not doing enough to keep the Donbas region a part of the country. When asked if they approved or disapproved of the job President Poroshenko was doing, 70 percent nationwide disapproved and 78 percent in the Ukrainian-controlled territories of the Donbas disapproved. The Cabinet of Ministers had equally poor numbers with 82 percent nationwide disapproving and 85 percent in the Donbas. Similarly, only 11 percent nationwide approved of the Verkhovna Rada, compared to a nearly negligible three percent in the Donbas.

“The significance of these findings cannot be overstated,” said Nix. “This should be a warning sign to the Ukrainian government and the international community that they need to redouble their efforts to end the war and engage all citizens, especially the people of the Donbas region, into all aspects of Ukrainian political and civic life.”

People of the Ukrainian-Controlled Territories of Donbas Support Ukrainian Unity

Despite the war and a continuous barrage of anti-Kyiv government propaganda, a significant 75 percent of Donbas residents in the areas governed by national authorities believed that Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts should remain within Ukraine either with the same status as before (32 percent), with extended responsibilities as a result of decentralization reform (35 percent), or as an autonomous region (eight percent). Similarly, 72 percent believed that the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (the area not controlled by the Kyiv government) should remain a part of Ukraine.

Methodology

The poll was conducted in all regions of Ukraine (excluding the occupied territory of Crimea and parts of Donetsk and Luhanskoblasts) from November 19-30, 2015. The national survey had a randomly selected sample of 1,800 permanent residents of Ukraine aged 18 and older and eligible to vote. The margin of error does not exceed plus or minus 2.3 percent, and the response rate was 65.9 percent. The poll also included an oversample of 1,284 respondents in the Ukrainian-controlled territories of the Donbas region (Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts; see poll presentation for methodology).

The survey was conducted by Rating Group Ukraine, in cooperation with IRI’s Center for Insights in Survey Research, and was funded by Global Affairs Canada.

Source: http://www.iri.org/resource/iri%E2%80%99s-center-insights-poll-pessimism-high-after-two-years-violent-conflict-russia-people

415-43-7/POLL

Russia: Labor Mobility: 1990-2015

Every second Russian is ready to move to another Russian city in favor of a well-paid job.

MOSCOW, December 21, 2015. Russian Public Opinion Research Centre (VCIOM) presents the results of the survey devoted to the circumstances under which Russians are ready to move to another region of Russia, as well as barriers to do that.

As a quarter of a century ago, the basic reason that makes Russians change their job is the size of salary: today 48% of respondents (40% in 1990) say that they would opt for a job in another region if they were offered a higher salary.

A strong argument in favor of relocation is getting a comfortable housing (42% and 38%, respectively). At the same time, the basic obstacle that hampers moving to another region is housing-related problems, though the importance of this factor has decreased over the recent twenty-five years (56% in 2015; 75% in 1990).

Every fifth (22%) would accept a job offer, if other family member were also hired; every third (33%) believes that this factor impedes people relocating (from 19% in 1990). Every sixth (16%) would agree to change a job if there were an opportunity to return to the previous position. Such factor as a “reserved housing” that was important during the Soviet times does not play a crucial role: it was mentioned by 17% of respondents in 2015 (from 34% in 1990). Simultaneously, the share of those who are not ready to accept working in another Russian city or rural area under any circumstances has increased (from 23% to 30%).

Among arguments that retain Russians from relocating are lack of information about vacancies (19%). Registration procedures and passport control are also obstacles for certain Russians, though the share of them has decreased from 31% to 15%. Besides that, people are also afraid of cold welcome in a new place (18%), and differences in languages and traditions (16%).

The VCIOM opinion poll was conducted June 27-28, 2015; 1600 respondents were interviewed in 130 settlements in 46 regions of Russia. The margin of error does not exceed 3.5%.

If you were offered a job in another region of Russia, under what circumstances would you accept this proposal? (closed-ended question, any number of answers, %)
	1990 *	2015
Higher salary	40	48
Comfortable housing is offered	38	42
Other family member are also employed	21	22
Possibility to return to the precious housing (housing reservation)	34	17
Possibility to return to the precious job	16	16
I will not accept it by any means	23	30
Other	1	1
Don’t know	11	7

*In 1990, the survey involved national urban and rural populations aged 16 and over; the sample size was 1537 persons.

In your opinion, what is the main obstacle for people to move to another region to work? (closed-ended question, any number of answers, %)
	1990 *	2015
Housing problems	75	56
Failure to find job for every member of the family	19	33
Lack of information about the job offers	13	19
Negative attitudes of the authorities towards strangers	12	18
Differences in languages and traditions	13	16
Passport regulations; registration procedures	31	15
Political tensions	21	15
Nothing	4	16
Other	1	4
Don’t know	10	8

Source: http://www.wciom.com/index.php?id=61&uid=1213

415-43-8/POLL

Russian “Turn To The East”

Russians see more benefits in the Eastern orientation of the Russian political and economic policies.

MOSCOW, December 14, 2015. Russian Public Opinion Research Centre (VCIOM) presents the Russian assessments concerning the relations with the Asian countries, as well as their attitudes towards Russian “turn to the East”.

The results of the survey suggest that the first things that bring together Russia and Asian countries are common political interests (opposition to the U.S., opposition to the West, sanctions, et cet.) and common economic objectives. What separate them are geopolitical factors.

The majority of Russians (70%) consider that more active cooperation with the Asian countries (“turn to the East”) will have impact on the life in the country. At the same time, Russians see more positive points than negative ones. Twelve percent of them point out the strengthening of the trade and economic relationships; 8% see a way out of crisis.

More than one-third of Russians (37%) support the Russian policies aimed at developing “new eastern vector”; and every fifth (22%) believes that Russia should act more actively in this direction.

According to the respondents, those who will benefit from this “turn” are the country itself (“Russia” - 10%, authorities”- 8%. et cet.) and Eastern countries, whereas the West (“Europe” - 14%, “U.S.” – 8%, et cet.) will not gain anything. Sixty percent believe that Russia-China cooperation is mutually beneficial.

In spite of positive trend regarding Asia, particular questions are shaded by negative stereotypes and fears; Russians are afraid of the flow of poor quality goods (64% think it may happen in the next five to ten years) or migrant flow (61%).

*Fear Index shows how high the probability of certain problem is, according to Russian opinions. The higher the value of Index is, the more likely the problem is to happen. The Index is based on the question “How would you assess the probability of the following things to happen in your life?”; it is measured in points and can vary between -100 and 100. The answer “Completely confident that it will happen” corresponds to the coefficient (1); “I think it will happen” – (0.5); “It is likely to happen” – (0.1); “It is unlikely to happen” - (-0.5); “Completely confident that it will not happen”- (-1).

The VCIOM opinion poll was conducted October 24-25, 2015; 1600 respondents were interviewed in 130 settlements in 46 regions of Russia. The margin of error does not exceed 3.5%.

In your opinion, what brings Russia and Asia together? (open-ended question, any number of answers, %, answers presented by at least 1% of respondents)
	Total respondents
Economy	10
Opposition to the U.S.A	6
Market	6
Political interests	5
Natural resources	4
Opposition to the West	4
Common interests	4
Territorial closeness	3
Business relationships	3
Friendship	3
Sanctions	2
Fight against ISIL	2
Geopolitics	1
Mentality, traditions, ideology, history	1
Situation in the world	1
Nothing	1
Other	4
Don’t know	47

Lowering the orientation towards the West and intensifying the cooperation with Asia are being increasingly discussed in the Russian society. Some call it a “turn to the East”. In your opinion, what effects may this “turn to the East” have on the life in Russia? (closed-ended question, one answer, %)
	Total respondents
Considerable effects	39
Fair effects	31
No effects	30

In your opinion, what changes will happen in Russia? (open-ended question, any number of answers, % of those who believe that the “turn to the East” will change the life in Russia; answers presented by at least 2% of respondents)
	Total respondents
Strengthening trade and economic relations with the Eastern countries; new goods will appear	12
Economic development; way out of crisis	8
Flow of migrants	6
Everything will work out for the best	4
Decreased prices, inflation	4
Increased political influence and Russian image in the world	3
Increased living standards	2
Other	27
Don’t know	49

In your opinion, who will suffer first from the Russian “turn to the East”? (open-ended question, any number of answers, %, answers presented by at least 2% of respondents)
	Total respondents
No one	18
Western countries	16
Europe	14
Russia	11
U.S.	8
Ukraine	2
Other	5
Don’t know	31

What politics regarding the “Russian turn to the East” should Russian authorities adhere to? (close-ended question, one answer, %)
	Total respondents	Moscow and St. Petersburg	Million cities	More than 500 ths	100–500 ths	Less than 100 ths	Rural area
Russia should act more actively following this direction	22	31	20	21	18	20	23
Russia should pursue the same politics	37	39	42	43	39	34	33
Russia should slow down and be more reserved	23	23	26	17	25	23	23
Russia should abandon the idea to turn to the East	5	4	2	9	6	5	6
Don’t know	13	3	10	10	12	17	16

In your opinion, due to Russia’s “turn to the East” what is the possibility that the following things may happen in five or ten years? ... (close-ended question, one answer per each line, %)
	Completely confident; I think it is likely to happen (it has already happened))	Completely confident; I think it is unlikely to happen	Don’t know	Fear Index*
Cheap and poor quality goods from Asian countries such as China, Korea will overflow Russian market	64	29	7	21
Mass flow of Asian migrants to Russia (China, Korea, et cet.)	61	32	7	13
China will use Russia to increase its influence in the world	53	36	11	9
Russian economic and political cooperation with the West will weaken	51	36	13	6
Asians countries will buy Russian natural resources for cheap prices (oil, gas, soil)	46	45	9	0
Far-Eastern and Siberian native populations will be displaced by people from Asia (Korea, China, et cet.)	44	47	9	-3

Source: http://www.wciom.com/index.php?id=61&uid=1212

415-43-9/POLL

Russia’s Partners Across The Post-Soviet Space

Russians believe that Belarus and Kazakhstan are the most successful CIS countries and main Russia’s partners.

MOSCOW, December 10, 2015. Russian Public Opinion Research Centre (VCIOM) presents the opinions of Russians concerning the CIS countries that they think are the most successful; which countries they would like to be Russia’s partners; where Russian-speaking population ‘rights are best respected; which CIS leader they trust more.

Russian likings for Belarus and Kazakhstan keep strengthening year-by-year; they are the countries Russians call the most successful ones among the CIS countries: in 2015, the corresponding answers were 72% and 50% (from 66% and 45% in 2014).

The remainder are still rarely mentioned except for Ukraine; this country left the top three leaders in 2014 and failed to retrieve its position this year (only 1% of respondents believe that this country is successful among the former USSR republics). Every tenth mentions Armenia (11%) and Azerbaijan (10%); a further 6% cite Georgia; 4% - Kyrgyzstan; Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are mentioned by 3% (per each country); Moldavia and Tajikistan are named by 1 % (per each).

The answers to the question concerning the partners of Russia across the post-Soviet space revealed the same trend. Belarus (68%) and Kazakhstan (53%; 46% in 2014) are at the top of the ranking; they are followed by Armenia (10%), Kyrgyzstan (7%), Azerbaijan (5%), Uzbekistan (3%), Georgia (3%), Moldavia (1%), Turkmenistan (1%), Tajikistan (1%), Ukraine (less than 1%).

The countries where the rights of the Russian-speaking population are best ensured are Belarus (69%) and Kazakhstan (32%). Rarer respondents cite Armenia – 6%, Kyrgyzstan and Azerbaijan – 3% (per each), Moldavia, Uzbekistan, Georgia – 2% (per each), Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Ukraine - 1% (per each).

Presidents of Belarus and Kazakhstan are the most trustworthy leaders of the CIS countries: Aleksandr Lukashanko (63%), Nursultan Nazarbaev (45%; from 38% in 2014). Other leaders appear to be less reliable: Aliyev Ilham – 6%, Serj Sargsyan – 5%, Almazbek Atambaev - 4%, Islam Karimov and Giorgi Margvelashvili – 2% (per each), Nicolae Timofti, Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow, Emomali Rahmon – 1% (per each), Petr Poroshenko – less than 1%.

The VCIOM opinion poll was conducted November 22-23, 2015; 1600 respondents were interviewed in 130 settlements in 46 regions of Russia. The margin of error does not exceed 3.5%

Which of the following countries is the most successful today? (closed-ended question, not more than three answers, %)
	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Belarus	31	35	45	50	66	72
Kazakhstan	34	42	33	35	45	50
Armenia	9	9	7	6	9	11
Azerbaijan	6	9	6	7	10	10
Georgia	3	3	5	5	5	6
Kyrgyzstan	2	3	3	3	5	4
Turkmenistan	5	4	4	4	4	3
Uzbekistan	3	4	3	2	3	3
Moldavia	5	5	3	4	5	1
Ukraine	19	17	19	21	2	1
Tajikistan	1	1	1	1	2	1
Don’t know	33	29	29	22	16	13

Which CIS country is the most reliable Russia’s partner? (closed-ended question, not more than three answers, %)
	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Belarus	23	36	46	51	65	68
Kazakhstan	37	42	38	37	46	53
Armenia	6	7	5	5	7	10
Kyrgyzstan	2	3	4	2	5	7
Azerbaijan	3	5	4	5	6	5
Uzbekistan	3	3	3	2	3	3
Georgia	1	1	1	2	1	3
Moldavia	4	3	2	3	5	1
Turkmenistan	2	2	2	2	3	1
Tajikistan	1	1	2	1	2	1
Ukraine	21	15	17	18	3	<1
Don’t know	34	29	28	21	17	17

In which of the following countries are the rights of the Russian-speaking population best protected? (closed-ended question, not more than three answers, %)
	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Belarus	27	45	46	52	63	69
Kazakhstan	21	25	24	18	31	32
Armenia	5	4	4	4	5	6
Kyrgyzstan	1	1	2	2	4	3
Azerbaijan	2	2	2	2	4	3
Moldavia	4	3	2	4	4	2
Uzbekistan	2	2	2	1	2	2
Georgia	1	1	1	1	1	2
Ukraine	17	18	16	18	2	1
Turkmenistan	1	1	2	1	1	1
Tajikistan	1	1	1	<1	1	1
Don’t know	45	35	36	31	24	22

Which of the following leaders are the most reliable? (closed-ended question, not more than three answers, %)
	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Lukashenko Aleksandr (President of Belarus)	16	28	34	41	61	63
Nazarbaev Nursultan (President of Kazakhstan)	32	37	31	33	38	45
Aliyev Ilham (President of Azerbaijan)	5	7	5	5	6	6
Sargsyan Serj (President of Armenia)	4	6	3	3	4	5
Atambaev Almazbek (President of Kyrgyzstan) *	2	2	3	2	3	4
Karimov Islam (President of Uzbekistan)	2	3	2	2	3	2
Margvelashvili Georgi (President of Georgia)**	1	2	1	2	1	2
Timofti Nicolae (President of Moldavia) ***	1	2	1	2	3	1
Berdimuhamedow Gurbanguly (President of Turkmenia)	2	2	2	1	1	1
Rahmon Emomali (President of Tajikistan)	1	1	2	1	1	1
Poroshenko Petr (President of Ukraine) ****	17	12	12	10	1	<1
Don’t know	43	36	38	32	23	19

Source: http://www.wciom.com/index.php?id=61&uid=1211

WEST EUROPE

415-43-10/Business Leaders Poll

More than four in five business leaders hope for “remain” vote in EU referendum

Ipsos MORI Captains of Industry Survey

Published:11 January 2016

Fieldwork:September - December 2015

· Three in four fear Brexit would have a negative effect on the British economy

· Free movement of people considered significant business advantage to UK businesses

· Half (49%) would prefer Britain to return to being part of a purely economic union

More than four in five business leaders hope UK voters will vote to “remain” in the forthcoming EU referendum according to a new Ipsos MORI study.

The findings, from “Captains of Industry”, a survey of more than 100 of the most senior figures in top UK companies, show most think continuing EU membership would be best for their business (87%), are personally hoping for a “remain” result in the forthcoming referendum (87%) and would themselves vote to stay in (83%) if there was a referendum tomorrow.

The clear stance of business leaders contrasts with the more mixed views of the wider public, and appears to be driven by concerns about the impact a vote to leave the EU would have on various aspects of trade, business and the economy. A clear majority (79%) consider that Brexit would have a negative effect on Britain’s trade with Europe. Over three-quarters predict a negative effect on the British economy overall (78%), on foreign investment in the UK (78%) and on Britain’s standing in the world (72%).

There is less concern about direct negative effects on their company, such as its prospects (76% predict no impact) or ability to attract and retain talented employees (61% say it would make no difference). Additionally, only minority (37%) think a vote to leave would negatively affect trade with the rest of the world. More believe that an exit vote would make no difference (49%). Only 13% think that it would have a positive effect on non-EU trade.

The favourable view of EU membership is driven in particular by the advantages of free movement of people and of cross border trading to their business:

· Over half (57%) of those surveyed consider the ease of visa free recruitment of people from across the EU as a significant advantage to UK business.

· Nearly half cite the ease of cross border trade in the EU (48%) and being part of the single market (47%).

· Additional positive factors mentioned include, ease of access to customers in the EU (29%), being part of EU Free Trade Agreements (29%), a single regulatory framework for their sector (22%), EU initiatives to support business (22%) and harmonisation of standards across the EU (18%).

However, there’s little consensus amongst board members about the UK’s future role in Europe. Whilst only 1% would prefer to leave the EU altogether, nearly half (49%) would prefer Britain to return to being part of an economic community without political links. Fewer than one in ten (7%) business leaders would like to see Britain involved in closer political and economic integration of the EU states, and two in five (39%) would prefer Britain’s relationship with Europe to remain broadly the same as at present.

In addition, the participants cite a range of drawbacks to EU membership, most notably the volume of EU regulation (67%) and the impact of regulatory changes (54%). Worries about uncertainty are also a common theme– 43% consider the uncertainty about EU membership a disadvantage, 40% uncertainty about the EU’s economic outlook and 34% about the uncertain future of the Eurozone.

Other concerns revolve around the economic risks of EU membership. The majority (75%) agree that Europe’s economy is too inflexible to face the challenges of the modern world and 55% agree that the debt crisis in some Eurozone countries is a significant risk to the British economy. But despite these levels of concern fewer see the debt crisis as a significant risk to their company (21%) or that in the end Britain would be better off leaving the EU rather than being part of an unreformed EU (25%).

There is considerable variation in levels of planning for a potential British exit. Just over a third of Captains’ companies (36%) are carrying out planning scenarios for a possible exit. Fewer expect to be consulted by the government about what reform agenda to pursue in EU negotiations (25%) or have already been consulted (7%). Only 5% have reduced or delayed investment programmes because of the uncertainty. One thing most (81%) agree on is that business leaders should play an active part in the referendum campaign once it gets underway.

Commenting on the findings, Ben Page, Chief Executive of Ipsos MORI said:

“The boards of the UK’s biggest companies think EU membership is good for business, and personally hope for a “remain” result in the forthcoming referendum. That’s not to say they are cheerleaders for the EU, many are concerned about inflexibility and the risk to their business of Eurozone debt crises, and around a third are scenario-planning for a potential Brexit. Their clear support for remaining in the EU is in stark relief to the views of the wider population which are more mixed, and unlikely to harden until the referendum campaign gets underway. For voters, whether or not free movement of people is somehow restricted or discouraged is the issue which could hold the key to the referendum outcome, whereas in contrast, multinational businesses see their ability to move people across borders as necessary as a key benefit of the EU. Ultimately for those at the helm of big business it all comes down to the effect Brexit would have on the economy.”

Technical note

Respondents are executive board-level directors and chairmen. Companies are from the top 500 industrials by turnover and the top 100 financial companies by capital employed. A total of 102 respondents took part with interviews conducted from September to December 2015. 97 interviews were conducted face-to-face and 5 by telephone.

Source: https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3680/More-than-four-in-five-business-leaders-hope-for-remain-vote-in-EU-referendum.aspx

415-43-11/POLL

UK: Widespread public support for junior doctors’ strike

Published:11 January 2016

Fieldwork:8 - 10 January 2016

Junior doctors are planning to strike over changes to their overtime pay tomorrow (Tuesday 12 January) and on Tuesday 26 January, but will provide emergency care cover on these days. A further planned day of strike action on Wednesday 10 February will see a full walk-out, with no emergency cover being provided.

When emergency care provision is not part of the terms of the strikes, support dips significantly to 44%, with opposition rising to 39% of the public. A quarter (24%) of the public still strongly support strike action, even if emergency care isn’t provided.

When asked why junior doctors are planning to strike, pay and working conditions feature highly. The most commonly mentioned reason is long working hours (46%), followed by pay generally (27%) and because junior doctors specifically are poorly paid (24%). Very few mention issues regarding the safety of patients (2%) or healthcare staff (1%), showing that public understanding of the reasons for the strikes are limited to the issues affecting doctors’ pay and conditions, rather than the potential ramifications on standards of healthcare.

Commenting on the findings, Anna Quigley, Head of Health Research at Ipsos MORI, said:

“Interestingly those who support the strike are more likely to talk about the long and unsociable hours worked by doctors rather than pay, which is mentioned as much by those who oppose the strike as support it. This could suggest that arguments about the demands on doctors are more convincing than arguments over pay. The dip in support for strikes when emergency care isn’t provided could be an indication that the government’s argument that the strikes could put patients at risk has achieved some cut through with the public.”

Technical note

Ipsos MORI interviewed a representative sample of 869 adults in England, aged 18+. Interviews were conducted over the telephone between 8 and 10 January 2016. Data are weighted to match the profile of the population.

Source: https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3682/Widespread-public-support-for-junior-doctors-strike.aspx

415-43-12/Business Leaders Poll

Senior business figures optimistic about business prospects for 2016

Ipsos MORI Captains of Industry Survey

Published:11 January 2016

Fieldwork:September - December 2015

· Nearly all agree the government’s policies will improve the British economy

· Most (92%) agree that the UK is an attractive place to invest, but US seen as the best country for doing business

· But three-quarters (76%) fear Chinese economy slowdown poses a threat British economy

The majority of leaders of the UK’s biggest companies are optimistic about prospects for their company in 2016 according to a new Ipsos MORI study.

The findings come from “Captains of Industry”, an annual survey of more than 100 of the most senior figures in top UK companies, and show 57% of respondents predict business will improve in 2016. Only 7% think that things will get worse.

Optimism about their own companies’ prospects reflects Captains’ positivity about the economy generally. Nearly all Captains agree (96%) the government’s policies will improve the state of the British economy, an increase from 86% a year ago, signifying a firm vote of confidence in the new Conservative majority government.

Most (92%) agree that the UK is an attractive place to invest, with only 3% disagreeing. This positive outlook has strengthened over the last three years with 42% now strongly agreeing compared to just 19% in 2013. That said the USA is currently seen as the best country for doing business by 45%, with the UK in second place (33%), followed by Singapore (8%) and Canada (6%). The USA is also the leading choice as the most attractive country for investment (39%), well ahead of the UK (19%), India (11%) or China (8%).

When asked to weigh up whether a range of factors have a positive or negative effect on their company, a majority (61%) agree that the current government’s attitude to UK businesses is having a positive effect. Captains are also more likely to agree the current low oil prices are having a positive effect than disagree (55% agree, 23% disagree).

Other factors provoke a more divided response. Some 27% of Captains are positive about the effect of a likely interest rate rise in the next 12 months compared to 32% negative. Similarly 21% think the planned introduction of the National Living Wage will have a positive effect whilst 20% see a negative effect. Opinions are overall more positive about the effect of the introduction of auto-enrollment pension schemes for all employees than negative (26% compared to 16%). However, the strength of the pound was more likely to be a concern (32%) than viewed as having a positive effect (25%).

Despite the generally positive outlook for the year ahead, business leaders report a number of concerns, either for the country as a whole, for businesses generally, or for their own company.

· Concern about the UK’s role in Europe has risen steeply over the past three years and for 61% is now considered to be the most important issue facing Britain today, up from 44% at the end of 2014.

· Immigration is mentioned by 21% as being amongst one of the biggest issues facing the country, a significant increase on previous years. Additionally, for the first time in recent years, terrorism is mentioned by 15%, as is uncertainty in the Middle East and China, along with skills shortages, poor political leadership and the world economy.

· When asked specifically about what are the most important issues facing companies, the leading problems are finding and retaining the right staff (17%), regulation (11%), the challenge of making the business grow (10%), skills shortages (9%) and digital transformation (8%).

· For the first time in the last three years, respondents mention China as one of the biggest issues facing businesses (8%). Three-quarters (76%) agree that a slowdown in the Chinese economy over the next 12 months is a significant risk to the British economy. (Although significantly fewer (44%) agree a slowdown in the Chinese economy is a significant risk to their own company, with 36% disagreeing.)

· Seven in ten (69%) feel that the level of regulation affecting business in the UK overall has been increasing over the last 12 months. The majority of Captains (77%) see over regulation as harmful to the UK economy, albeit only 23% strongly agree that regulation levels are harming the UK economy compared with 35% in 2012 and 2013.

Technical note

Source: https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3681/Senior-business-figures-optimistic-about-business-prospects-for-2016.aspx

415-43-13/POLL

UK: Introduce an English national anthem: Land of Hope and Glory

January 15, 2016

Most British people support the idea of England having its own national anthem – and Land of Hope and Glory beats the competition

MPs voted in favour of introducing a bill to Parliament on adopting an official national anthem for England this week, so that England would have its own anthem like Scotland and Wales. Toby Perkins, the Labour MP who proposed the bill, said it “seems incongruous” for the English to sing about Britain when they play other British sides – "This not only denies us English an opportunity to celebrate the nation that is being represented but is also a cause for resentment amongst other countries within the British Isles who feel that England have requisitioned a British song", he said.

New YouGov research reveals strong support for the idea of an English anthem, with 57% in favour and 22% opposed.

In agreement with Mr Perkins’ point Scottish people are even more supportive than the British average, with 60% in favour and only 9% opposed.

3031 UK adults were questioned on 14 Jan 2016. Results are weighted to be representative of the GB population.

1. MPs have given initial support to the idea of England adopting an official national anthem, separate from God Save the Queen, the national anthem for the UK as a whole. Would you support or oppose England having it's own national anthem?

Strongly support24%

Tend to support33%

Tend to oppose12%

Strongly oppose10%

Don't know21%

Majorities of supporters of every major party support England having a national anthem, but Conservative voters are actually more likely to oppose (29%) than Labour voters (18%).

William Blake’s short poem And did those Feet in Ancient Time, set to music in Jerusalem, is often considered a natural candidate to replace God Save the Queen, and David Cameron has previously said it would be his choice.

But YouGov’s research reveals Land of Hope and Glory to be the favourite among English people, beating the other alternatives Jerusalem (18%) and Swing Low, Sweet Chariot (5%) – and even God Save the Queen itself.

Jerusalem has often been interpreted as satirical, un-Christian or critical of British history, having even been banned by clergymen in some cases. ‘And did those feet in ancient times walk upon England’s pastures green?’ is usually seen as a rhetorical question dismissing the apocryphal account of Jesus visiting Glastonbury; ‘Among these dark Satanic mills’ as a lamentation of industrialisation; and ‘I will not cease from mental fight… Till we have built Jerusalem’ as a suggestion humans can create heaven themselves.

God Save the Queen would be reserved for British teams such as team GB at the Olympics, while the English anthem would be sung by English teams in football, cricket, rugby and athletics at the Commonwealth Games, for example.

Source: https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/01/15/introduce-english-national-anthem-land-hope-and-gl/

415-43-14/POLL

German attitudes to immigration harden following Cologne attacks

January 12, 2016

62% of Germans now say the number of asylum seekers is too high, up from 53% in November – driven mainly by the hardening attitudes of women

Since the events of New Year's Eve in Cologne, in which dozens of women were sexually assaulted and robbed by men described as of North African and Arab appearance, the tide has begun to turn against Germany's open-door approach to immigration. Following protests by the right-wing Pegida movement involving fireworks and bottles being thrown at police, Angela Merkel proposed new measures to deny the right of asylum for those who have committed crimes or are on probation – where currently only asylum seekers who have been sentenced to at least three years' imprisonment, and will not be at risk in their countries of origin, are forcibly deported.

New research by YouGov in Germany for the Bild newspaper reveals a sharp hardening of attitudes to immigration following the attacks in Cologne.

On November 20 a slim majority of 53% said the number of asylum seekers in Germany was already too high, however 42% said the current numbers were acceptable (22%) or that Germany could even accept more (21%). Now however, fully 62% say the number of asylum seekers is too high, while only one in three say the current numbers are acceptable (16%) or could be higher (18%).

There were also protests by feminist groups in Germany on Saturday, after police in Cologne were criticised for deploying too few officers during the night of the attacks and for issuing an incorrect assessment that the atmosphere in the city was "relaxed". Cologne's Mayor Henriette Reker made matters worse by proposing a "code of conduct" for women, appearing to blame victims by advising women to stay "at arm's length" from strangers.

German women are now more likely than men to say the number of asylum seekers in Germany is already too high (63% and 60% respectively) – which had not previously been the case – and the hardening of women's attitudes by 12 points is the main driver for Germany's now-strong resistance to immigration.

A report by the interior minister for the region said 19 individuals are currently under investigation in connection with the attacks, including 14 men from Morocco and Algeria. 10 of the suspects are asylum seekers, nine of whom arrived in Germany after September 2015, while the remaining nine are possibly in Germany illegally. The report details how a group of around 1,000 men of North African and Arabic origin gathered on 31 December, forming smaller groups and surrounding women, then threatening and attacking them. "After the intoxication with drugs and alcohol came violence. It culminated in the acting out of fantasies of sexual omnipotence. That must be severely punished", said Mr Jaeger.

Source: https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/01/12/germans-attitudes-immigration-harden-following-col/

NORTH AMERICA

415-43-15/POLL

Government, Economy Return as Most Important U.S. Problems

Most Americans now support marijuana legalization

January 17, 2016

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Americans who say terrorism is the nation's top problem fell to 9% this month, after jumping to 16% in December in the wake of terror attacks in San Bernardino, California, and Paris. With concern about terrorism down, the government and the economy have resumed their top-ranking positions on Gallup's list of most important problems, with 16% in early January mentioning some aspect of government and 13% naming the economy. These issues ranked either first or second on the list for most of 2015.

The economy, in general, has ranked among the most important U.S. problems mentioned since early 2008, peaking at 58% in late 2008. Also topping the list are mentions of the government -- including Congress, the president, corruption and partisan rancor. Combined mentions of government peaked at 33% in October 2013 amid the partial government shutdown and, since then, have garnered at least 13% in the monthly poll.

Other frequently named issues in January were immigration (8%) and guns (7%). This is the second month in a row that 7% have named guns as the most important problem. And it is the first time since the end of 2012 that mentions have been above 5% for two consecutive months. Historically, concerns about guns typically increase immediately following highly publicized U.S. shooting incidents but then quickly subside the following month. This occurred in December after the San Bernardino incident, but concern remained elevated in January, perhaps in response to calls for major gun control reforms by President Barack Obama.

Bottom Line

As mentions of terrorism as the most important problem facing the U.S. declined in early January, mentions of the government and the economy both increased slightly, and those issues have returned to the top of the list. Concern about guns remained relatively high for the second straight month, perhaps indicating that the president's calls for changes to gun control laws are resonating with some Americans. But with no issue topping 16%, the year starts without an overriding problem on the minds of Americans, perhaps paving the way for Obama to focus his final year in office on some of the other issues he outlined in his State of the Union address. The issues range from funding community college and addressing climate change to supporting the development of clean energy and curing cancer.

Historical data are available in Gallup Analytics.

Survey Methods

Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Jan. 6-10, 2016, on the Gallup U.S. Daily survey, with a random sample of 1,012 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. For results based on the total sample of national adults, the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. All reported margins of sampling error include computed design effects for weighting.

Each sample of national adults includes a minimum quota of 60% cellphone respondents and 40% landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas by time zone within region. Landline and cellular telephone numbers are selected using random-digit-dial methods.

Source: http://www.gallup.com/poll/188159/government-economy-return-important-problems.aspx?g_source=Politics&g_medium=newsfeed&g_campaign=tiles

415-43-16/POLL

U.S. Split on Whether Obama, GOP Congress Should Set Course

January 13, 2016

PRINCETON, N.J. -- Americans are about evenly divided in their preference for who should have more influence over the direction the nation takes in the next year, with 46% saying the Republicans in Congress and 42% saying President Barack Obama. Americans have been mostly split on this question during Obama's presidency, with the major exception coming right after the GOP success in the 2014 midterm elections when the Republicans had a sizable lead.

The latest results are based on a Jan. 6-10 Gallup poll, conducted before Obama delivered his State of the Union address on Tuesday. While his speech could affect people's views on whether he or Congress should have more influence on policy over the next year, presidents usually have not seen significant changes in their support following State of the Union addresses.

Preferences about who should steer the country are, not surprisingly, highly related to one's political party identification. But Republicans are more likely to choose their side -- 91% say the Republicans in Congress should have more influence -- than Democrats are to choose theirs -- 81% of Democrats say President Obama should have more influence. Independents are roughly divided.

Presidential Popularity Key to Influencing Preferences

Gallup has asked this question 30 times since 1995, primarily when party control of the president and Congress has been divided between the two major parties. Preferences for which side should lead have differed significantly at certain points during this time period, but when averaged, Americans have been evenly divided between the president (46%) or the opposition party in Congress (44%) having more influence.

Early in George W. Bush's administration, the public wanted him to have more influence. However, after Democrats won control of Congress in the 2006 midterms, Americans wanted the Democrats to be more influential.

During President Bill Clinton's administration, Americans wanted the Republicans in Congress to have a bigger say in leading the country after the GOP won control of Congress in the 1994 midterm elections. But in late 1998 and early 1999, when the House of Representatives was in the process of impeaching President Clinton and the Senate considering his removal from office, Americans wanted the president to lead.

Americans' preferences to a large degree reflect their evaluation of the current president. When a president's job approval rating was 55% or higher, an average of 50% said the president should have more influence, compared with 39% for the majority party in Congress. In contrast, when a president's job approval rating was 45% or lower, the numbers are essentially reversed, with 50% wanting the congressional majority party to have more influence and 40% the president. When a president's approval rating was between 46% and 54%, Americans' preferences on who should set the direction of the nation have been evenly divided.

The current data fit this pattern. Obama's job approval rating in the Jan. 6-10 poll is 45%, which indicates a preference for the opposition party but not an overwhelming one given it is right on the edge of where Americans be split or want Congress to be more influential. More broadly and thus far in 2016, Obama has averaged a 46% job approval rating in Gallup Daily tracking.

Implications

In his State of the Union address on Tuesday, President Obama forcefully advocated his vision for how the country should address various domestic and international issues in the coming year, often taking issue with the opposing party's approach. But Americans are mostly divided as to whether he or the Republican-led Congress should have more influence over U.S. policy in the next year. To a large degree, that division is a function of Obama's middling job approval ratings; Americans tend to express a clear preference as to who should lead only when the president is very popular or very unpopular.

Historical data are available in Gallup Analytics.

Survey Methods

Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Jan. 6-10, 2016, with a random sample of 1,012 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. For results based on the total sample of national adults, the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. All reported margins of sampling error include computed design effects for weighting.

Source: http://www.gallup.com/poll/188156/split-whether-obama-gop-congress-set-course.aspx?g_source=Politics&g_medium=newsfeed&g_campaign=tiles

415-43-17/POLL

Americans' Dissatisfaction With U.S. Gun Laws at New High

January 14, 2016

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Sixty-two percent of Americans are dissatisfied with the nation's laws or policies on guns, the highest percentage dissatisfied since Gallup's first Mood of the Nation poll in 2001. Dissatisfaction jumped 11 percentage points in one year.

These results are from a Jan. 6-10 Gallup poll, conducted after a tumultuous year that included several high-profile shootings and President Barack Obama's recent executive actions on guns.

At the close of the Clinton administration, dissatisfaction with gun laws was also high, at 57%. It dipped into the 40s during the Bush presidency and the first term of Obama's presidency. After the Sandy Hook massacre in late 2012, a majority of Americans again became dissatisfied with gun policies, and that has remained the case in the years since.

Most Americans Dissatisfied With Gun Laws Want Them to Be Stricter

Based on answers to a follow-up question, those who are dissatisfied with gun laws are much more likely to say they want these laws to be stricter. Overall, 38% of Americans are dissatisfied with the nation's gun laws and want them made stricter, 15% are dissatisfied and want the laws made less strict, and 9% are dissatisfied but say laws should remain as they are.

Overall, more than twice as many Americans are dissatisfied with current guns laws because they want them stricter than are dissatisfied because they want those laws loosened, 38% vs. 15%, respectively. However, as a sign of increasing polarization on that issue, both of those figures are at or near their 16-year highs.

Across Party Groups, Republicans Least Dissatisfied With Gun Laws

Republicans are the least dissatisfied with gun laws across political party groups, with 54% saying they are not happy with the nation's gun laws. Independents' dissatisfaction is slightly higher, at 59%. Democrats are the most dissatisfied, at 75%.

In the follow-up question exploring the source of dissatisfaction, 68% of Democrats are dissatisfied and want gun laws to be stricter, much higher than the 12% of Republicans who say the same. Twenty-four percent of Republicans are dissatisfied and say policies should be less strict, with 4% of Democrats saying the same.

Americans Also Highly Dissatisfied With Nation's Policies on Crime

Along with being dissatisfied with gun laws, 57% of Americans say they are dissatisfied with the nation's policies to reduce or control crime, also a new high in Gallup's trend. This number is up six points from last year and 15 points from two years ago.

The current crime satisfaction numbers are a reversal from 11 years ago. In 2005, 57% of Americans said they were satisfied with crime policies, during a period of relative satisfaction with the government's handling of that matter.

Similar to views on gun policies, Americans across party and age groups are dissatisfied with crime laws. Republicans are most dissatisfied, along with millennials.

Bottom Line

Americans are dissatisfied with gun and crime policy in the U.S. After Sandy Hook, a violent crime involving firearms, the American public's opinion on both guns and crime flipped from majority satisfaction to majority dissatisfaction. Since then, the gun debate has become more contentious, as mass shootings appear to proliferate in American life.

To prevent these tragic events, Americans are divided on whether to impose stricter gun laws or to defend against shooters by making gun ownership more widespread. In recent weeks, President Obama has issued executive actions on guns, ranging from increased background checks to augmenting mental health treatment, steps most Americans endorse in theory. While a majority of Americans have called for stricter gun laws in past Gallup polls, it remains to be seen whether a change in gun policies will have a measurable effect on gun violence in 2016.

Historical data are available in Gallup Analytics.

Survey Methods

Source: http://www.gallup.com/poll/188219/americans-dissatisfaction-gun-laws-new-high.aspx?g_source=Politics&g_medium=newsfeed&g_campaign=tiles

415-43-18/POLL

As Obama Delivers SOTU, 23% Satisfied With Direction of U.S.

January 12, 2016

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- As President Barack Obama prepares to deliver his final State of the Union address, 23% of Americans are satisfied with the way things are going in the U.S. This percentage is lower than the 32% who were satisfied in January 2015, but it matches the average for Obama's time in office so far.

Obama took office at a time when Americans had a dismal view of the nation's direction, with 13% satisfied with the way things were going in January 2009. U.S adults' levels of satisfaction with the nation's direction improved considerably during Obama's first year as president, reaching 36% in August, the peak for his term to date. Historically speaking, satisfaction with the direction of the U.S. has been muted under Obama. The highest satisfaction rating during his administration of 36% nearly matches the historical average of 37% on this measure.

Satisfaction ratings since Obama's first year have generally ranged between 15% and 30%, with a few exceptions. Satisfaction bottomed out in the fall of 2011, ranging from 11% to 14% amid the fallout of the debt ceiling crisis during which Standard & Poor's downgraded the U.S. credit rating, resulting in volatility in the stock market. It exceeded 30% on only two occasions: during the 2012 election and in the first few months of 2015.

More broadly, the highest level of satisfaction Gallup has recorded since the inception of this measure in 1979 was 71% in February 1999. The lowest recorded was 7% in October 2008.

The latest results come from a Jan. 6-10 Gallup poll, which included a follow-up question asking respondents about the degree of their satisfaction or dissatisfaction. Few Americans reported being "very satisfied" (3%) with the direction of the country, while 20% said they were "somewhat satisfied." Meanwhile, 32% of Americans said they were "somewhat dissatisfied," with 44% saying "very dissatisfied."

Americans are about as likely now to say they are very satisfied or dissatisfied with the direction of the country as they have been in recent years. Since 2012, between 3% and 6% have said they were very satisfied, while 41% to 48% have said they were very dissatisfied.

The percentage of very dissatisfied Americans peaked at 56% and 57% during the fall of 2011, coinciding with the percentage very satisfied dipping to 1% and 2%, respectively. Before 2008, Americans were less likely to rate their dissatisfaction with country's direction in such extreme terms. From 1995 to 2008, they were more tempered in their dissatisfaction, with 12% to 43% saying they were very dissatisfied.

Two in Three Republicans Very Dissatisfied With U.S. Trajectory

All demographic groups are more dissatisfied than satisfied with the direction of the nation, but the degree of dissatisfaction varies. The greatest differences are by political party. Two in three Republicans (67%) say they are very dissatisfied with the way things are going, compared with 44% of independents and 21% of Democrats. Democrats are more likely to be somewhat dissatisfied than very dissatisfied, while the opposite is true for independents and especially Republicans.

More than half of Americans aged 55 and older are very dissatisfied (54%) with the direction of the U.S. -- almost twice the rate of those younger than 35. Meanwhile, half of whites say they are very dissatisfied, compared with 29% of nonwhites. These patterns likely reflect differences in political identification by age and race.

Bottom Line

As has been the case for his seven previous State of the Union addresses, Obama will deliver his final address to an American public that is mostly dissatisfied with the way things are going in the country. Though the current level of satisfaction is similar to where it was when President George W. Bush gave his final address, the measure had fallen quite drastically under the previous president, whereas it has been consistently muted under Obama.

With only one year remaining in Obama's term and many of the structural problems that have restrained public contentment in recent years still in place -- slow economic recovery, political gridlock and global unrest -- Americans' satisfaction is unlikely to break the 36% barrier before he leaves the White House. His final initiatives -- which are expected to include expanding gun control, closing Guantanamo Bay and limiting carbon dioxide emissions -- and his degree of success in achieving them could prove effective in boosting Americans' contentment with the state of the country. But some of these initiatives are divisive and could prove to be more of the president's personal initiatives than ones that will satisfy large numbers of Americans.

Historical data for this question are available in Gallup Analytics.

Survey Methods

Source: http://www.gallup.com/poll/188141/obama-delivers-sotu-satisfied-direction.aspx?g_source=Politics&g_medium=newsfeed&g_campaign=tiles

415-43-19/POLL

Sanders' Image Up Among Dems; Clinton Still Maintains Edge

January 15, 2016

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- As Democratic presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders approach their final debate before the Feb. 1 Iowa caucuses, Clinton (+57) maintains a net favorability advantage over Sanders (+48) among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents. While Clinton's current score is about par for the course, Sanders is his highest to date, as he has become more familiar to the party faithful.

Clinton's higher net favorable score reflects how much more familiar Americans are with her than they are Sanders, with 95% of Democrats able to rate her either positively or negatively, compared with 70% for Sanders. But those who are familiar with both candidates are slightly more likely to view Sanders favorably (+84) than Clinton (+80).

For Clinton, who enjoys near-universal familiarity among those in her party and Americans as a whole, the favorability advantage she has over Sanders is more modest than the advantage she had earlier on in the race.

Perhaps sensing the threat from a gaining Sanders, Clinton's campaign has recently unleashed what are arguably its most direct attacks on the Vermont independent, with Clinton's daughter Chelsea telling a New Hampshire crowd that Sanders would "dismantle" the Affordable Care Act. The Sanders campaign was swift in its rebuttal of the younger Clinton's comments, saying they were untrue.

With mere weeks left before the start of the party primary schedule, Sanders' rise in net favorability among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents is evident across gender, age and racial groups. Compared with his ratings in November, Sanders' net favorability since December has grown among all groups, with his ratings among whites and those younger than 30 now each exceeding +50.

Clinton's ratings among these groups over the same time have not improved, sagging slightly in all demographics except Democrats and Democratic leaners aged 65 and older. Still, Clinton bests Sanders in most demographic groups except among whites, which Sanders holds a modest six-point advantage, and adults younger than 30, among whom he outperforms Clinton by 23 points in net favorability.

Although Sanders' standing has improved with blacks and Hispanics, his image among these groups still falls well short of Clinton's. The candidates recently participated in an Iowa forum focusing on minority issues, and Sanders recently began a tour of black colleges to make headway with this group.

Bottom Line

It is crunch time for the candidates. This Sunday's Democratic debate in Charleston, South Carolina, may be the best remaining chance for both to make their case to a national audience before the primary season takes off.

For Sanders, a sprint across the nation's historically black colleges may not yield much for his prospects in Iowa and New Hampshire, where more than nine in 10 residents are white. But this approach could chip away at Clinton's black support there and in other states while solidifying his rapport with millennials. Additionally, Gallup has found low familiarity with Sanders among blacks, so the more he can do to boost his familiarity, the better.

Meanwhile, Clinton's prospects hinge on her ability to retain her lead, which she, thus far, has been successful in doing. She could do well to find ways to resonate more with younger Democrats and Democratic-leaning adults. Clinton had already fallen short among this age group compared with Sanders, and the past several weeks saw her net favorability with these adults weaken while Sanders' gained even more traction.

Historical data are available in Gallup Analytics.

Survey Methods

Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Dec. 30, 2015-Jan. 14, 2016, on the Gallup U.S. Daily survey, with a random sample of approximately 800 adults identifying as Democrats or independents who lean Democratic, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. Each candidate was rated by a random subset of respondents during this period. For results based on these samples, the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. All reported margins of sampling error include computed design effects for weighting.

Source: http://www.gallup.com/poll/188396/sanders-image-among-dems-clinton-maintains-edge.aspx?g_source=Election%202016&g_medium=newsfeed&g_campaign=tiles

415-43-20/Analysis

The 2016 State of the Union: Considering the Public's Opinion

January 15, 2016

PRINCETON, N.J. -- President Barack Obama delivered his final State of the Union address this week, providing an opportunity to analyze existing public opinion about some of the proposals and assertions he made in his speech.

In many cases, the president accurately assesses the state of public opinion or offers proposals that the American public is likely to support. On some, though, Americans probably disagree.

Here are key moments in the speech and what Americans have already said about these ideas:

Standard of Living

All these trends have squeezed workers, even when they have jobs; even when the economy is growing. It's made it harder for a hardworking family to pull itself out of poverty, harder for young people to start their careers, tougher for workers to retire when they want to.

This downcast view of Americans' financial circumstances may have been more appropriate during the recession than it is today. Seventy-nine percent of Americans in December said they were satisfied with their standard of living and 62% said it was getting better. That is substantially improved over the low point in November 2008 when 69% were satisfied and just 35% believed it was getting better. Of eight indicators of Americans' financial health that Gallup tracks annually each April, retirement is at the top, with 60% saying they are very or moderately worried that they won't have enough money for it. While this is down from 67% in 2012, it is still higher than the 52% to 54% range found in the early 2000s.

Education

In the coming years, we should build on that progress [No Child Left Behind], by providing pre-K for all.

Recent Gallup polling has found broad and bipartisan support for expanding federal funding for preschool education. In 2014, 70% of U.S. adults, including 87% of Democrats and 53% of Republicans, favored increasing federal preschool funding to make sure high-quality preschool programs were available to every child in the country. Separately, in 2013, 73% of U.S. adults told Gallup that if given the choice, they would vote "for" a law establishing federal and state programs that "would make high-quality preschools available to every child in America."

Social Security

That's why Social Security and Medicare are more important than ever. We shouldn't weaken them; we should strengthen them.

Two-thirds of Americans believe the Social Security system either has major problems (45%) or is in a state of crisis (21%). Further, the percentage of Americans who believe the system will be able to pay them a benefit when they retire drops from 66% of adults aged 50 to 64, to just a third of those younger than 50. Accordingly, eight in 10 Americans believe reforming the Social Security system to ensure it remains solvent would be a very (50%) or somewhat (31%) effective way to help the nation's economy.

Healthcare Law

That … is what the Affordable Care Act is all about. It's about filling the gaps in employer-based care so that when you lose a job, or you go back to school, or you strike out and launch that new business, you'll still have coverage. Nearly 18 million people have gained coverage so far. And in the process, healthcare inflation has slowed. And our businesses have created jobs every single month since it became law.

Gallup polling documents a 5.2-percentage-point decline in the nation's uninsured rate since Obamacare went into effect, from 17.1% to 11.9%. Despite this sizable decline, slightly more Americans in April 2015 said the new healthcare law was hurting their family's healthcare situation than said it was helping it, 23% vs. 17%. The majority said it wasn't affecting them. In the same poll, Americans' outlook for how the law would affect the national healthcare situation also tilted negative, with 43% saying it would make things worse vs. 37% better.

Corporate Power

But there are some areas where … it has been difficult to find agreement over the last seven years. And a lot of them fall under the category of what role the government should play in making sure the system's not rigged in favor of the wealthiest and biggest corporations.

Obama's implicit assumption here is that the system is rigged in favor of big companies, and Americans' opinions generally fit in with that assumption. Almost two-thirds are dissatisfied with the size and influence of major corporations in the U.S., and almost all of these indicate it is because they want major corporations to have less influence. Only 16% of Americans say corporations pay their fair share of taxes, while most of the rest -- 69% -- say they pay too little in taxes, a finding that has been consistent since 2001. The size of the business is pivotal here. Gallup's annual update on confidence in institutionsfinds that big business scores near the bottom with only a 21% confidence rating, while small business is near the top with a confidence rating that is more than three times as high.

Government Regulations

I believe a thriving private sector is the lifeblood of our economy. I think there are outdated regulations that need to be changed. There is red tape that needs to be cut.

Gallup polling on government regulations affecting the private sector finds Americans tilting toward believing these regulations are too onerous. However, there are mixed signals about the extent of this viewpoint. Each year since 2010, roughly half of Americans have said in Gallup's September Governance survey that there is too much government regulation of business and industry, including 49% in 2015. Less than a quarter think there is too little. On the other hand, in Gallup's 2016 January Mood of the Nation survey, only 25% of U.S. adults indicated they are dissatisfied with government regulations on business and industry, and want less of them. Nearly as many, 20%, are dissatisfied and want more. The rest are largely satisfied with regulations, perhaps indicating this is not a pressing issue for many.

Global Warming

Look, if anybody still wants to dispute the science around climate change, have at it. You will be pretty lonely, because you'll be debating our military, most of America's business leaders, the majority of the American people, almost the entire scientific community and 200 nations around the world who agree it's a problem and intend to solve it.

Fifty-five percent of Americans in 2015 expressed solid belief in global warming. That's the proportion saying increases in global temperature over the last century are mainly the result of human activity, as well as the percentage believing the effects of climate change are already occurring. Sizable minorities disagree with both propositions, including 41% who say global warming is a natural occurrence. But perhaps more relevant from the standpoint of activating the public to take action, fewer than four Americans (37%) believe global warming will pose a serious threat to them in their lifetime, while 62% disagree.

Military Power

I told you earlier all the talk of America's economic decline is political hot air. Well, so is all the rhetoric you hear about our enemies getting stronger and America getting weaker. Let me tell you something. The United States of America is the most powerful nation on Earth. Period.

Obama's claim that the U.S. is the most powerful nation on Earth meshes with public opinion in reference to the U.S. military. Fifty-nine percent of Americans say the United States is the No. 1 military power in the world, while most of the rest, 38%, say the U.S. is only one of several leading military powers. Further, over two-thirds say it is important that the U.S. be the world's No. 1 military power. Gallup's January update shows that satisfaction with the nation's military strength and preparedness has actually dropped this year to 59%, the lowest level since the measure began in 2001. At one point in January 2003, still in the proximate aftermath of 9/11, 83% said they were satisfied.

Standing on the World Stage

Our troops are the finest fighting force in the history of the world. No nation attacks us directly, or our allies, because they know that's the path to ruin. Surveys show our standing around the world is higher than when I was elected to this office, and when it comes to every important international issue, people of the world do not look to Beijing or Moscow to lead -- they call us.

Median approval of U.S. leadership worldwide jumped from 34% in 2008 to 49% in 2009, according to Gallup World Poll data. Since then, it has generally been flat, and is currently at 45%. The U.S. typically receives higher marks for its leadership than other world powers evaluated in the Gallup World Poll, including China, Russia, Germany and the European Union.

The President and Congress

It will only happen if we fix our politics. … Too many Americans feel that way right now. It's one of the few regrets of my presidency -- that the rancor and suspicion between the parties has gotten worse instead of better.

Americans clearly are negative about the elected representatives who come from the two parties in Congress, whose average approval ratingin 2015 was 16%, just two points above its all-time yearly low of 14% recorded in 2013. Obama's statement that rancor and suspicion have gotten worse is supported by the finding that in the year Obama took office, approval of Congress averaged 30%. Previous research has shown that the supermajority of Americans who disapprove of Congress volunteer two reasons for this: that there is too much bickering and gridlock, and that Congress is not getting anything done. Asked what could be done to fix Congress, other than "fire them all," the American people are most likely to say more bipartisan cooperation and working together.

Source: http://www.gallup.com/poll/188312/2016-state-union-considering-public-opinion.aspx?g_source=Politics&g_medium=newsfeed&g_campaign=tiles

415-43-21/POLL

Privacy and Information Sharing

January 14, 2016

Many Americans say they might provide personal information, depending on the deal being offered and how much risk they face

Most Americans see privacy issues in commercial settings as contingent and context-dependent. A new Pew Research Center study based on a survey of 461 U.S. adults and nine online focus groups of 80 people finds that there are a variety of circumstances under which many Americans would share personal information or permit surveillance in return for getting something of perceived value. For instance, a majority of Americans think it would be acceptable (by a 54% to 24% margin) for employers to install monitoring cameras following a series of workplace thefts. Nearly half (47%) say the basic bargain offered by retail loyalty cards – namely, that stores track their purchases in exchange for occasional discounts – is acceptable to them, even as a third (32%) call it unacceptable.

Still, while many Americans are willing to share personal information in exchange for tangible benefits, they are often cautious about disclosing their information and frequently unhappy about what happens to that information once companies have collected it. For example, when presented with a scenario in which they might save money on their energy bill by installing a “smart thermostat” that would monitor their movements around the home, most adults consider this an unacceptable tradeoff (by a 55% to 27% margin). As one survey respondent explained: “There will be no ‘SMART’ anythings in this household. I have enough personal data being stolen by the government and sold [by companies] to spammers now.”

In online focus groups and in open-ended responses to a nationally representative online survey, many people expressed concerns about the safety and security of their personal data in light of numerous high-profile data breaches. They also regularly expressed anger about the barrage of unsolicited emails, phone calls, customized ads or other contacts that inevitably arises when they elect to share some information about themselves. In response to a question about having their online behavior tracked in exchange for getting access to a free online service , one survey respondent wrote: “I want control over what ads are being ‘pushed back’ to me: I have no interest in ‘puppy portraits’ but I may be interested in cameras, equipment, etc. In an effort to ‘target’ my preferences, my inbox gets full of [expletive] that is not relevant to me.”

These findings suggest that the phrase that best captures Americans’ views on the choice between privacy vs. disclosure of personal information is, “It depends.” People’s views on the key tradeoff of the modern, digital economy – namely, that consumers offer information about themselves in exchange for something of value – are shaped by both the conditions of the deal and the circumstances of their lives. In extended comments online and through focus groups, people indicated that their interest and overall comfort level depends on the company or organization with which they are bargaining and how trustworthy or safe they perceive the firm to be. It depends on what happens to their data after they are collected, especially if the data are made available to third parties. And it also depends on how long the data are retained.

The scenarios obviously did not comprehensively cover the vast range of possibilities where people would consider sharing personal information in return for a benefit. But it is interesting to note that 17% of adults say they wouldn’t take any of the deals described in the six scenarios and 4% say they would accept all of the deals. The substantial majority indicate that at least one of these transactions is potentially acceptable to them.

Furthermore, notable shares of the public say their consideration of each individual scenario is conditional: Their answer depends on the circumstances of the offer, their trust in those collecting and storing the data, and their sense of what the aftermath of data-sharing might look like.

The survey findings that form the basis of this report are different in some respects from conventional public opinion polling. In this study, respondents were presented with six hypothetical scenarios, each of which involved sharing some level of personal data in exchange for using a product or service. They were then asked whether the bargain they were offered in return for sharing that information was acceptable, not acceptable, or if “it depends” on the context of the choice. Upon making their selection, they were then asked to describe in their own words what factors contributed to making their selection.

The nearby chart runs down the six different scenarios that were examined in this study.

Many Americans are in an “it depends” frame of mind when they think about disclosing personal information or keeping it private when considering different scenarios

Some issues people ponder as they consider privacy tradeoffs include the likelihood of getting spam, the risk of data breaches, the special intimacy tied to location data and overdone customer profiling

Contingency permeates the reactions to each of these different scenarios, but a number of other themes emerged as well – especially when it comes to tradeoffs that people find not acceptable. Some of the common themes that came across in the open-ended answers and focus group responses include:

§ The initial bargain might be fine, but the follow-up by companies that collect the data can be annoying and unwanted. People repeatedly expressed anger at the barrage of unwanted emails that often comes after the initial transaction. One survey respondent wrote: “I would take the deal, as long as my personal information is not shared with the third party, such as my name and contact information. If it’s just my demographics – age, city, what I buy – that’s OK. If they want to print coupons at the checkout that target me as a consumer, that’s OK, but not contacting me personally (mail, email, phone, etc.) with advertising. I hate hate hate that stuff.”

§ Scammers and hackers are a constant threat. There is widespread worry that people’s information is vulnerable, even when the companies that collect it do their best to keep it safe. As one respondent summarized: “The ‘secure’ sites are continually making the news when they are hacked. We can have our information stolen from banks, credit card companies, hospitals … all secure … all hacked in the past. The more I ‘put it out there,’ the more likely my information will go somewhere hazardous to my well-being.”

§ Location data seems especially precious in the age of the smartphone.Some of the most strongly negative reactions came in response to scenarios involving the sharing of personal location data. One respondent put it as follows: “I continually deny location services on my phone because I don’t want the chance of ads coming up.” A focus group participant said she doesn’t worry about most personal data collection “except where I am, especially in my home. If anything involves the use of cameras, including on my phone or computer, that’s the worst privacy invasion for me.”

§ Profiling sometimes seems creepy. The words “creepy” and “Big Brother” and “stalking” were used regularly in the answers of those who worry about their personal information. One focus group participant summed up this view: “Some of the marketing tracking things are creepy. I look at one thing online and then see it on every single site for weeks. At first – intriguing. Then creepy.” Another argued:“Perhaps we need to teach the younger generations about BIG BROTHER. It seems he has been forgotten.” To which another group member added: “Orwell was a prophet.”

§ People are not happy when data are collected for one purpose but are used for other, often more invasive purposes. Many Americans express suspicion that data collectors (from employers to advertisers) have ulterior motives in their pursuit of personal data. One respondent put it this way: “I do not trust insurance companies, and I feel they could use this data to increase my rates under whatever pretend excuse. Insurance companies are in the risk management business, and they cannot reduce that risk at the cost of their customers. The more they know, the less risk for them and the higher cost for customers.”

The potential benefits of sharing personal information include saving money, gaining access to useful services or information, and facilitating commercial and social encounters

Yet even as they worry about the negative downstream consequences of sharing their personal information, these findings also illustrate that consumers understand and appreciate the benefits of sharing – at least under certain circumstances. The key themes here include:

§ Free is a good price. The social media scenario, in particular, drew a number of short answers that made clear people like no-cost services. One focus group participant explained why he was comfortable letting a technology company know about him in return for free email service: “To be honest, I don’t really care. That is especially the case when I voluntarily use a service in return for giving up some information. For example, I use Gmail for free, but I know that Google will capture some information in return. I’m fine with that.”

§ Sharing helps lubricate commercial and social interactions. People often need convenient and inexpensive access to information, goods and services. Moreover, they generally understand that disclosing personal information makes those transactions possible – and in fact, can make them more desirable to consumers. One survey participant found the loyalty card scenario acceptable and explained: “If the store shares information that would pertain to the type of things I would purchase, it would be OK.”

§ Certain realms are not inherently private and different rules about surveillance and sharing apply. Certain physical spaces or types of information are seen as inherently less private than others. One survey respondent noted how these norms influence his views on the acceptability of workplace surveillance cameras: “It is the company’s business to protect their assets in any way they see fit.”

Interestingly, there are no consistent demographic patterns to people’s answers on different scenarios. Sometimes people’s views vary by age, household income or education, and other times they do not. And at times when there are differences, they are not always either consistently protective of privacy or consistently willing to disclose information. For instance, those under age 50 are more likely than those 50 and older to find the scenario involving a new social media site acceptable (40% to 25%). Yet those 50 and older are more likely than those who are younger to find the online medical records scenario acceptable (62% to 45%). Clearly, people place different value on different kinds of information-sharing exchanges.

There are no statistically meaningful differences in women’s and men’s answers to any of these scenarios.

Where does this leave Americans? Many focus group participants are uncertain, resigned and annoyed – or worse. Still, some accept this is part of modern life and others are hopeful that technological and legal solutions can be found

In nine online focus groups tied to these issues, the 80 participants gave voice to a range of emotions about the state of privacy and its future. While the focus groups cannot be seen as representative of the whole adult population, it was often the case that given the choice, people are often much more likely to speak of the darker side of personal information tradeoffs than they are to reference the benefits. As one focus group participant put it: “I think the [chances for achieving privacy] are getting more hopeless as technology advances.”

One of the most unsettling aspects of privacy issues to many of the focus group participants is how hard they feel it is to get information about what is collected and uncertainty about who is collecting the data. A sampling of those views:

“In my opinion, there is a woeful lack of disclosure on how personal information is used by companies. If you read some of the terms of service, you are essentially giving the company the right to do almost anything with your personal information.”

“I have no idea how I’d investigate what info is collected about me in places like Google and Facebook, other than the information I’ve provided them, such as my profile info.”

Asked whether changes in the basic state of privacy were a “huge harm” to society or something more like an “annoyance that could be accommodated,” people’s answers ranged widely:

“It feels hopeless. Information retrieval is a way of life, but it inhibits human interaction.”

“For me it’s not so much ‘hopeless,’ as it is ‘resigned.’”

“It’s an annoyance, but inevitable.”

“I don’t feel hopeless. I just feel that I need to remain vigilant.”

“I don’t think things are hopeless, some genius will figure out how to get around all this.”

“Does any annoyance ever stop there? There are always those that want to capitalize on knowledge of others and will stretch that envelope to collect more and more data. If not more than an annoyance [now], it will become more than that [in the future].”

Asked what would it take to turn them into privacy activists? One focus group participant said: “If I found out that a company had been negligent in putting in reasonable controls to protect my information and then refused to help me, that would be the tipping point for me.”

When it comes to the future of privacy, most of the focus group participants were downbeat. Many cited the trend towards surveillance and data capture that to them seemed inexorable. Many also said they think younger Americans are not sensitive about personal privacy and that will shape the future. One focus group respondent spoke for many of the older members of the group in asserting: “The next generation will say ‘privacy? … What is that?” Another quickly added: “I really think that the next generation will not even understand the value of privacy. Privacy will be a thing of the past.”

Another focus group member argued that trends in technology drive changes that compromise privacy: “Information retrieval is a way of life, but it inhibits human interaction.”

Another asserted: “[The loss of privacy is] a huge harm – an impoverishment of our culture. Probably most great scientific and artistic achievements occur in privacy.”

And another gave voice to a commonly voiced theme that privacy changes are subtle and cumulative: “I think privacy will be stripped away [from us], because people are permitting it – one trade at a time. The cameras for security evolve into cameras to ensure compliance. And once those are in, the next thing is easier to get in.”

Source: http://www.pewinternet.org/2016/01/14/privacy-and-information-sharing/

415-43-22/POLL

52% of Americans, including a majority of adults under 65, support legalising marijuana

New research from YouGov in America shows that a majority now support legalising marijuana. 52% of Americans now support legalisation, while only 34% oppose it. This is slightly up from when the question was last asked in March 2015 - 48% then supported legalisition.

Over half of all American adults under the age of 65 support it, but over-65s do tend to oppose (49%) rather than support (39%) legalisation.

Politically, Democrats (66%) and independents (51%) want to legalise marijuana but half of Republicans are opposed. Just over a third of Republicans (36%) do support legalisation, however.

While full legalisation has the support of just over half of the country two-thirds of Americans believe that government efforts to enforce marijuana laws cost more than they are worth. Unsurprisingly a huge majority of people in favour of legalization (86%) say that the efforts cost more than they are worth, but even opponents of legalisation narrowly tend to say that current efforts aren't worth the cost (42% to 33%).

Support for legal marijuana is much higher in the US than in either the UK or Germany. The British public opposes legalisation 49% to 32%, and in Germany 45% to 39%.

Source: https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/01/17/majority-americans-support-marijuana-legalisation/

415-43-23/POLL

Canadians say our moral values are weakening four-to-one over those who say they’re getting stronger

Most Canadians see cheating on partners & cheating on taxes as morally unacceptable

January 13, 2016

The survey asked Canadians where their own moral code comes from, how they implement it, and in certain specific situations, what is – and isn’t – morally acceptable.

Key Findings:

· Canadians generally see morality in this country as either stagnating (44%) or getting weaker (47%)

· Large majorities of Canadians view marital infidelity and tax dodging as “morally wrong”

· Men and women vastly differ on the morality of issues relating to sex and sex work, with a full majority of men (52%), for example, saying watching pornography is morally acceptable and an even-larger majority of women (56%) saying it’s wrong

· Analysis reveals four distinct Canadian “mindsets” towards morality: theTraditional Absolutists, the Religious Moralists, the Non-Religious Moralists, and the Amoralists

PART 1: What is moral and what is not?

This survey asked Canadians their views on the moral acceptability of a variety of specific situations and behaviors, including well-known moral quandaries as well as less obviously moral issues.

Morally Acceptable

Just two of the situations canvassed in this survey are seen as either “morally acceptable anytime” or “usually acceptable” by a majority of Canadians:

It should be noted that the majority of those who see doctor-assisted suicide as acceptable say it is “usually” so (as opposed to always) – meaning there may be circumstances in which they would consider it to be wrong.

This finding is consistent with previous ARI research on this topic, which found Canadians supportive of legalizing physician-assisted suicide generally, but opposed to allowing it in several possible scenarios in which people might want to end their lives.

Morally Wrong

The list of things a majority of Canadians see as either always or usually morally wrong is considerably longer, as illustrated in the following graph (for greater detail,see comprehensive tables here):

More wrong than acceptable

Other situations are more likely to be deemed morally wrong than morally acceptable, but by narrower margins:

“Buying a gas-guzzling SUV” is the item on which Canadians are most evenly divided across the three overall options (acceptable, wrong, and not a moral issue).

As might be expected, residents of Canada’s three largest metro areas (Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver) – where owning a large vehicle is less feasible and less necessary – are more likely to see buying a gas-guzzling SUV as morally wrong (45% do so).

Similarly, Canadians who live in rural areas – where owning a large vehicle is more practical and arguably more necessary – are most likely to say this is not a moral issue (38%, see detailed tables at the end of this release).

One possible reason why there are so many more situations seen by a majority of respondents as morally wrong? Many who don’t morally oppose a situation or behavior don’t endorse it either. Instead, they simply don’t see the issue through the lens of morality. Eating meat is an example of this phenomenon. As seen in the following graph, just five per cent of Canadians see it as morally wrong, but fewer than half (49%) say it’s morally acceptable. Almost the same number are inclined to say eating meat is not a moral issue:

Morally Divisive Issues

Other issues are more divisive on the moral/immoral spectrum. Gambling and abortion, for instance, are deemed acceptable by more people than who deem them wrong:

Of these two issues, abortion is the more polarizing,

That said, relatively few people align themselves with either extreme on this issue. Just one-in-six (16%) say abortion is “morally acceptable anytime,” and even fewer (14%) say it’s “morally wrong under any circumstances.”

Most Canadians are somewhere in the middle, with three-in-ten (30%) saying abortion is “usually acceptable,” – indicating that there are circumstances when it isn’t – while another one-quarter (26%) say it is “usually wrong, except in some circumstances.”

Opinion on the morality of abortion also varies significantly across region and age demographics (see comprehensive tables).

The Gender Gap

There is a massive gulf between the opinions of men and women on questions relating to the morality of sex and sexual relations. This gulf is especially visible in men’s and women’s responses to the questions about watching pornography and high-schoolers having sex:

Age drives this gender divide: among women aged 55 and older, 75 per cent say watching pornography is wrong. Fully half of this group (53%) go further, saying it’s morally wrong “under any circumstances.”

Younger women aged 18–34, by contrast, are divided on the issue. More of them say watching pornography is always or usually acceptable (41%) than say it’s always or usually wrong (34%). Fully one-in-four (25%) say it’s not a moral issue at all.

Older men are considerably less troubled by the morality of watching pornography than older women, though they are more likely to see it as wrong than men under age 55 (see comprehensive tables).

On the question of high-schoolers having sex, older women are again the group most likely to see the situation as morally wrong (62% do so), but in this case younger women are more inclined to agree. Some 42 per cent of women aged 18 – 34 say high-schoolers having sex is morally wrong, while 39 per cent say it’s morally acceptable.

Compare this to the opinions of young men, nearly three-in-five (59%) of whom say high-schoolers having sex is morally acceptable, and just one-in-four (25%) of whom say it’s wrong.

A similar pattern – in which young men are especially likely to see each situation as acceptable and older women are especially likely to see it as wrong – can be seen in the results of the two questions on prostitution: buying sex and selling sex, which are summarized in the following graph (see comprehensive tables).

PART 2: Four Segments of Canadian Morality

In order to fully mine this rich data, the Angus Reid Institute conducted a special segmentation (or cluster) analysis, grouping respondents based on shared attitudinal characteristics. This can powerfully illustrate the unique “mindsets” surrounding the issue at hand – in this case, morality in Canada.

Based on their answers to the questions about each scenario’s moral acceptability, respondents are sorted into one of the following four categories:

· Traditional absolutists (21% of the total population)

· Religious moralists (25%)

· Non-religious moralists (37%)

· Amoralists (17%)

The demographics and key attitudes of each group are summarized in the following infographic:

Click to Enlarge

Traditional Absolutists are defined by their strong belief in God and their hardline approach to questions of sexual morality. This group’s responses most closely resemble those of Evangelical Christians. Indeed, fully half (50%) of the Evangelicals surveyed find themselves in this segment.

Religious Moralists share many of the same values held by the Traditional Absolutists. What sets them apart is their shared conviction that morality extends beyond so-called “ten commandments” issues. Unlike the Traditional Absolutists, many Religious Moralists see buying a fur coat (64%) or a gas-guzzling SUV (62%) as morally wrong.

Non-Religious Moralists take a more permissive approach to morality. While members of this group tend to agree with the Religious Moralists on societal and environmental issues, they diverge significantly on questions of sexual morality.

Amoralists are the group most likely to say each item on this list is “not a moral issue.” Where they do have an opinion on the morality of a given issue, they’re generally more likely to say things are acceptable rather than wrong.

PART 3: Morality in Canada today

What does morality look like in Canada?

Just one-in-six (16%) Canadians are of the opinion that when it comes to morality, “things are either right or wrong.” The rest reject moral absolutes, and are about evenly divided between believing that “things are usually right or wrong” (41%) or that “it depends on the circumstance” (43%).

As might be expected, opinion on this question varies by segment:

There are also significant regional differences on this question, with Quebec residents least likely to say there are moral absolutes (10% say this, compared to at least 16% in every other region). By contrast, Albertans are especially unlikely to say there are moral grey areas (26% do, compared to at least 38% in other regions, see comprehensive tables).

Sources of the Canadian Moral Code:

Canadians are especially likely to identify reason/rationality and parents, close family members or role models as the most important sources of their morality:

Men are more likely than women to say their moral code comes from reason (43% versus 31%), while women are more likely to point to family (35% say so, versus 25% of men).

Religion/God is the most important contributor to the moral compass of roughly one-in-seven Canadians (13%), but it’s especially influential in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (25% in each province).

Here again, the segments diverge significantly, with Traditional Absolutists most likely to choose “Religion/God” (30%) and Amoralists most likely to choose reason/rationality (49%).

Moral values: stronger or weaker today?

Ultimately, Canadians are nearly five times as likely to say society’s moral values are getting weaker (47%) than they are to say such values are getting stronger (10%). The rest (44%) say morality in the country is staying about the same, but it is younger Canadians who have the sunniest outlook about this, as evidenced in the following graph:

For Traditional Absolutists, there is no question which direction the country’s moral values are headed. More than seven-in-ten (72%) in this group say Canada’s morality is getting weaker, while just 4 per cent say stronger.

A majority of religious moralists (57%) also see Canada’s moral values eroding, while the non-religious segments are most likely to say “overall morals aren’t really changing”.

Source: http://angusreid.org/morality/

AUSTRALASIA

415-43-24/POLL

Australian Roy Morgan Business Confidence declines further in December

January 13, 2016

These December figures are the results of 1,001 interviews with a cross section of businesses across Australia.

The level of Business Confidence in December is still positive for the economy but the last two months have seen a decline which now puts it below the five-year average (116.9) and is a sign that confidence is very fragile.

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence finished the year on 115.4 (12-13th December), up marginally on the November average of 115.0; but early signs for January (9th and 10th) show that this has also slipped back to 114.1. With both surveys showing signs of weakening, it appears that the initial improvement in outlook among both consumers and businesses following the leadership change is being overtaken by adverse world and local economic events.

Monthly Roy Morgan Business Confidence -- Australia

Source: Roy Morgan Business Single Source (Australia), December 2010-December 2015. Average monthly sample last 12 month n= 963.

The drop in Business Confidence in December was mainly due to deterioration in the outlook for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, which has now fallen to its lowest level since August 2015. Despite this poor outlook for Australia over the coming year, businesses still maintain a positive attitude, with 60% agreeing that the next 12 months will be a good time to invest in growing their business, well up on the 51% seen in August 2015.

Norman Morris, Industry Communications Director, Roy Morgan Research says:

“Despite the fact that Roy Morgan Business Confidence has shown a decline over the last two months, its drop has been moderate considering the number of negative issues recently. In December the ASX showed considerable volatility, being down 5.0% mid-month, before rebounding to be up by 2.5% for the month. This type of fluctuation, combined with global economic uncertainty (particularly China), the deteriorating Australian budgetary position (highlighted in the government’s mid-year economic update), declining commodity prices and continued speculation on tax reform, all make for a very uncertain business outlook.

“Not all industries showed a decline in confidence in December, with improvements seen in agriculture, construction and accommodation/food services. The sectors that showed a decline during the month included manufacturing, finance and insurance, professional services, mining and wholesale. The most confident businesses were in accommodation/food services, retail, rental/real estate and education/training.

“Business Confidence varies by state and during December, Tasmania was ahead, followed by South Australia, New South Wales, Queensland, Victoria and Western Australia. The biggest declines over the month were in Victoria and WA.

“Over the last month there has been some decline in confidence among micro and small businesses, while medium and large businesses have shown increased confidence.

“Business Confidence is the key driver of economic growth, so it will be essential for the federal government to take action to convince business they have a plan that will provide the positive environment for growth. International events will also be likely to continue to impact on business and consumer confidence but obviously, the government has little control over this.”

Source: http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6624-australian-business-confidence-declines-further-in-december-201601122346

415-43-25/POLL

Natural yoghurt: more than flavour of the month

Jannuary 15, 2016

In the 12 months to September 2015, 48% of Australians 14+ reported eating flavoured/fruit yoghurt in an average four weeks, down from 52% back in September 2011. Over the same period, the proportion eating natural/plain yoghurt surged from 36% to 43%, closing the gap on its historically more popular flavoured equivalent.

Natural yoghurt’s newfound popularity appears to be an equal-opportunity phenomenon, with ever-increasing numbers of men and women enjoying it. Between October 2010 and September 2015, the proportion of Australian men who ate natural yoghurt in an average four weeks grew from 30% to 36%, while the proportion of women eating it rose from 41% to 49%.

Flavoured vs plain yoghurt: 2011 vs 2015

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia), October 2010 – September 2011 (n=18,483) and October 2014- 2015 (n=15,668). Base: Australians 14+

While natural/plain yoghurt consumption grew among all age groups except young men aged under-25, the most dramatic increases occurred among men and women aged between 25 and 34 years, followed closely by the 65+ age bracket.

The frequency with which Australians eat natural/plain yoghurt has also risen over the last few years. Some 23% of natural-yoghurt eaters consume it on a daily basis (up from 17% in 2011) – almost the same proportion as fruit/flavoured yoghurt eaters who eat theirs every day (25%). Weekly consumption has grown from 29% to 30% over the same timeframe, just short of flavoured yoghurt (34%)

Michele Levine – CEO, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“While a greater proportion of Australians still eat fruit/flavoured yoghurt than natural, the gap is closing. This increased tendency towards natural/plain yoghurt may well be the result of the public becoming more aware of the hidden sugars in so many flavoured yoghurts, or part of a broader move towards more ‘natural’ foods. It is certainly noteworthy that Aussies who eat natural yoghurt every day are nearly 50% more likely than the average Australian to agree that ‘I try to buy organic food whenever I can’.

“It is also interesting to see that daily consumers of natural yoghurt are twice as likely as the average Australian to eat all, or almost all, vegetarian food, suggesting that there is a conscious thought process behind their decision. When we consider the elevated proportion of daily natural-yoghurt eaters who fall into Roy Morgan’s more gourmet-inclined Food Segments such as Entertainers, Trendsetters and House Proud, it becomes even more apparent that they have specific ideas about the kind of food they’re willing to eat.

“It is essential for dairy brands with a flavoured yoghurt range to stay abreast of shifting attitudes and behaviour among Australian consumers, and adjust their marketing communications and brand image accordingly.”

Source: http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6631-natural-yoghurt-more-than-flavour-of-month-201601142247

MULTI-COUNTRY SURVEYS

415-43-26/Poll based article

Income Inequality Hurts Life Ratings Worldwide

January 13, 2016

This guest opinion piece uses Gallup World Poll data as part of the authors' discussion paper.

These findings are published in a working paper, Top Incomes and Human Well-Being Around the World, by Richard V. Burkhauser (Cornell University), Jan-Emmanuel De Neve (Saïd Business School, University of Oxford) and Nattavudh Powdthavee (London School of Economics).

Some theories suggest that, overall, inequality can be a good thing: Individuals see others accumulate wealth and are motivated to do the same. While this may happen to a certain extent in some transitional or emerging economies, research shows that, worldwide, income inequality at the top makes us all less happy with our lives, even if we're relatively well-off.

Using data from the Gallup World Poll and the World Top Incomes Database, the researchers plotted the share of taxable income held by the top 1% in each country over time against reported life ratings and positive and negative emotional experiences across populations.

They found:

A pronounced negative correlation between individuals' "life evaluations" and the share of income held by people in the top percentile.
No relationship between positive emotional experiences and inequality at the very top of the income distribution. This is likely because, as Nobel laureates Daniel Kahneman and Angus Deaton found in their 2010 study, measures of life satisfaction were sensitive to socio-economic factors such as a person's income level and employment status. Alternatively, measures of positive and negative emotions were more sensitive to how people spend their time, such as socializing with or caring for others.
A significant positive relationship between top income shares and negative emotional experiences. In societies where the richest hold most of the country's income, people were more likely to report feeling "stressed," "worried" or "angry" on the day before the Gallup survey.

The authors started their research by asking if income inequality at the very top really matters to the average person's life evaluation -- and the results show that it does. Other studies have demonstrated the strong links between unhappiness and low productivity, the increase in sick leave and stress. Policymakers may need to pay more attention to the wider consequences of the rising share of income the top 1% enjoy.

Jan-Emmanuel De Neve is Associate Professor in Economics and Strategy at Saïd Business School and a Fellow of Harris Manchester College at the University of Oxford.

Nattavudh (Nick) Powdthavee holds a joint position as a Professorial Research Fellow at the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economics and Social Research, University of Melbourne, and a Principal Research Fellow at the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics.

Source: http://www.gallup.com/opinion/gallup/188165/income-inequality-hurts-life-ratings-worldwide.aspx?g_source=WWWV7HP&g_medium=topic&g_campaign=tiles

415-43-27/Multi-country study

Global Prosperity Hinges on Closing Jobs-Education Gap

January 15, 2016

The future of the global workforce -- and by extension, future prosperity and well-being worldwide -- relies in no small part on establishing better links between jobs and education. That theme resounded strongly throughout the day at Diplomatic Couriermagazine's annual Global Talent Summit, hosted by Gallup in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 13.

On some level, the need for education to better equip students to find good jobs is so obvious that it seems strange the topic is even worthy of discussion. But that dialogue is as important today as it's ever been. The lackluster, uneven recovery from the global recession in the developed world; the commodities bust that has slammed recent rapid growth in many emerging markets to a halt; and increasingly toxic levels of youth unemployment in many countries -- all of these speak to a desperate need for new ways to release currently untapped human capital around the world.

Gallup CEO Jim Clifton framed the discussion in the event's keynote address by arguing that the stakes are higher than they were for previous generations because for many young people, the notion of a good job now represents far more than financial security and the ability to support a family. Millennials, in particular, are searching for jobs that also serve as a source of fulfillment and self-expression: "If your job doesn't have meaning, your life doesn't have meaning," Clifton said. "So if employers are not dealing with purpose, they're not dealing with the whole individual."

Other participants described how their organizations are working to match education and training with labor market needs through a range of innovative strategies. In some cases, this means providing opportunities for more highly targeted training that does not place as heavy of a burden on those for whom traditional higher education may be out of reach. Robert Nicholson of the national nonprofit NPower spoke about how his organization bridges the technology skills gap between 1) underserved veterans and young people and 2) tech companies seeking new sources of talent and energy.

Aligning jobs and education also means adapting traditional educational curricula to better address the need for business growth as a fundamental engine of job creation. Clifton called for an increased focus in schools on identifying and nurturing entrepreneurial talent so that young people are better prepared to build enterprises that accelerate economic growth: "We have to make the development of entrepreneurs more intentional because innovation has no value without a customer standing next to it."

From a global perspective, overcoming the education-employment gap may even mean exporting knowledge and experience from businesses in the developed world to lower educational barriers to economic participation in the developing world. Andrew Mack of AMGlobal Consulting shifted the focus to employment in the developing world in describing the role of microfranchises -- i.e., small-scale franchises that give low-income people the opportunity to run businesses without having to overcome the far more daunting barriers associated with starting a business from scratch.

Whatever the approach, any strategy for bridging the gap between schools and employers requires active participation on both sides. Universities are among the most important venues for such partnerships. As Larry Quinlan, Chief Information Officer at Deloitte, noted, "A lot of experiential learning can't be provided by schools. There's a huge argument for corporate investment in education far beyond money."

However, as Quinlan also said, maintaining crucial links between education and the workplace is often a far more arduous task than one might expect. Lowering the barriers between the two worlds requires creativity, resolve and a dose of humility. But as many of the summit's participants demonstrated, there may be no more important effort toward helping young people around the world attain good jobs and good lives.

Steve Crabtree is a senior editor and research analyst for Gallup. He contributed to writing Building Engaged Schools, Gallup's book on education reform.

Source: http://www.gallup.com/opinion/gallup/188222/global-prosperity-hinges-closing-jobs-education-gap.aspx?g_source=WWWV7HP&g_medium=topic&g_campaign=tiles

415-43-28/Net Stat Analysis

Wikipedia at 15: Millions of readers in scores of languages

January 14, 2016

New analysis: See a list of the most visited Wikipedia articles by language in 2015.

Here’s what we found:

§ The list for the Japanese version, on the other hand, is made up mostly of pop culture subjects. Seven of the top 10 pages are from the world of comics, movies or music.

§ Social networking was popular in Russian. Rival social platforms VK and Classmates were No. 2 and No. 9, respectively.

As Wikipedia grew in prominence, there were several key events that thrust it into the news.

Source: http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/01/14/wikipedia-at-15/