This week report consists of eighteen surveys, three of these are multi-country studies while the rest are national surveys from different states across the globe.

488-43-19 Commentary: Number Of Potential Migrants Worldwide Tops 700 Million

Number Of Potential Migrants Worldwide Tops 700 Million

Description: Image result for Number Of Potential Migrants Worldwide Tops 700 Million WASHINGTON, D.C. -- After cooling off in the wake of the Great Recession, worldwide, people's desire to migrate permanently to another country showed signs of rebounding between 2013 and 2016. Gallup found 14% of the world's adults -- which translates to nearly 710 million people -- saying they would like to move to another country if they had the opportunity. This is up from 13% -- or about 630 million adults -- between 2010 and 2012.

JUNE 8, 2017

Global Desire to Migrate Rebounds in Some Areas

Percentage of those who live in these regions who desire to migrate

	Desire to migrate,2010-2012	Desire to migrate,2013-2016	Change
	%	%	pct. pts.
Sub-Saharan Africa	30	31	+1
Europe (outside European Union)	21	27	+6*
Latin America and Caribbean	18	23	+5*
Middle East and North Africa	19	22	+3*
European Union	20	21	+1*
Commonwealth of Independent States	15	14	-1
Australia/New Zealand/Oceania	9	10	+1
Northern America	10	10	0
South Asia	8	8	0
East Asia	8	7	-1
Southeast Asia	7	7	0
Global	13	14	+1*
Latest estimate based on World Poll surveys in 156 countries and areas between 2013 and 2016; * = Significant change
GALLUP WORLD POLL

Gallup's latest findings on adults' desire to move to other countries are based on a rolling average of interviews with 586,806 adults in 156 countries between 2013 and 2016. The 156 countries represent 98% of the world's adult population. The analysis period overlaps the years of the European migrant crisis that began in 2015. The previous findings were based on a rolling average of interviews with 521,182 adults in 154 countries between 2010 and 2012.

While still not back at the 16% Gallup measured worldwide between 2007 and 2009, the desire to migrate has increased in a number of regions as global economic conditions have continued to slowly recover and as conflict, famine and disaster have driven people from their homes in some parts of the world. Desire increased the most in non-European Union countries in Europe, in Latin America and the Caribbean, and in the Middle East and North Africa.

Yet in other places, desire has not changed much at all. In all regions of Asia, for example, the percentage of adults who would like to move to another country permanently remained flat. The 10% of adults in Northern America -- the U.S. and Canada together -- who would like to migrate also was unchanged. And in sub-Saharan Africa, where residents remain the most likely worldwide to express the desire to migrate permanently, desire hovered near 30%.

In 31 countries and areas throughout the world, at least three in 10 adults say they would like to move permanently to another country if they could. These countries and areas are found in every region except Asia, Oceania and Northern America. In many of these populations, desire to migrate has increased significantly, likely pushed higher for a host of reasons -- for example, the civil war in Syria, chronic high unemployment rates in Albania and Italy, and the Ebola outbreak in Sierra Leone.

Highest Desire to Migrate

Percentage of the total adult population that wants to migrate

	Desire to migrate,2010-2012	Desire to migrate,2013-2016
	%	%
Sierra Leone	51	62*
Haiti	53	56
Albania	36	56*
Liberia	53	54
Congo (Kinshasa)	37	50*
Dominican Republic	49	50
Honduras	41	48*
Armenia	40	47*
Syria	32	46*
El Salvador	34	46*
Ghana	40	45
Nigeria	41	43
Jamaica	43	40
Congo (Brazzaville)	38	39
Togo	41	39
Sudan	29	37
Guinea	33	36
Bosnia and Herzegovina	20	36*
Puerto Rico	N/A	35
Moldova	32	35
Senegal	31	34
Gabon	30	34
Macedonia	35	34
Kosovo	29	34
Uganda	37	33
Italy	21	32*
Cyprus	25	32*
Guatemala	30	31
Ivory Coast	N/A	30
Lesotho	25	30
Peru	32	30
* Significant change
GALLUP WORLD POLL

U.S. Still Top Desired Destination for Potential Migrants

The U.S. continues to be the most desired destination country for potential migrants, as it has since Gallup started tracking these patterns a decade ago. One in five potential migrants (21%) -- or about 147 million adults worldwide -- name the U.S. as their desired future residence. Germany, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Australia and Saudi Arabia appeal to at least 25 million adults each. These same countries have been top desired destinations for the past 10 years. In fact, roughly 20 countries attract more than two-thirds of all potential migrants worldwide.

Top Desired Destinations Worldwide

Among those who say they would like to move

	% Potential migrants naming this country	Estimated number of adults (in millions)

United States	21	147
Germany	6	39*
Canada	5	36
United Kingdom	5	35*
France	5	32
Australia	4	30
Saudi Arabia	3	25*
Spain	3	20
Italy	2	15
Switzerland	2	13
Japan	2	12
United Arab Emirates	2	12*
Singapore	1	10
South Africa	1	8
Sweden	1	8
Russia	1	7
New Zealand	1	7
China	1	7
Netherlands	1	6
Brazil	1	6
Turkey	1	5*
South Korea	1	5
* = Significant change
GALLUP WORLD POLL, 2013-2016

While the number of potential migrants who say they would like to move to the U.S. hasn't changed significantly from previous years, the number who say the same about Germany has risen from 28 million to 39 million in the most recent analysis period. This increase coincides with the height of Europe's migrant crisis between 2015 and 2016 -- during which Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel promised there would be "no limit" to the number of refugees her country would accept.

The United Kingdom, on the other hand, lost some of its appeal as a desired destination, as immigration became one of the driving forces behind the country's eventual "Brexit" in mid-2016. Approximately 35 million potential migrants named the United Kingdom as a desired destination between 2013 and 2016, down from about 43 million between 2010 and 2012.

Bottom Line

After tailing off shortly after the Great Recession, the desire to migrate inched back upward in a number of regions, likely reflecting an improving economic climate that can make the idea of leaving one's own country less risky to entertain. But it also could reflect the increasing unrest in some parts of the world, where war, famine, disaster and disease are making it impossible for people to stay.

In the most recent analysis period, the U.S. remained the top desired destination for potential migrants, as it has for the past decade that Gallup has been measuring these attitudes. It is possible that the U.S. will lose some of its allure under the new Trump presidential administration, which aims to make it tougher for migrants to come to the United States and for existing migrants to stay. It is evident from the changes in the numbers of potential migrants who would like to move to Germany and the United Kingdom that a government's stance and policy toward immigration can contribute to the country's being more attractive or less attractive to potential migrants.

Dato Tsabutashvili contributed to this article.

SURVEY METHODS

Results are based on aggregated telephone and face-to-face interviews with 586,806 adults, aged 15 and older, in 156 countries from 2013 to 2016. The 156 countries surveyed represent 98% of the world's adult population. One can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error for the entire sample, accounting for weighting and sample design, is less than ±1 percentage point.

Source: http://www.gallup.com/poll/211883/number-potential-migrants-worldwide-tops-700-million.aspx?g_source=world&g_medium=newsfeed&g_campaign=tiles

SUMMARY OF POLLS

EAST EUROPE

Visegrad Four Poll Reveals Vulnerabilities to Russian Influence

A poll of residents in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia released by the International Republican Institute’s (IRI) Center for Insights in Survey Research indicates waning commitment to Euro-Atlantic institutions and vulnerabilities to Russian influence. The four countries surveyed were chosen because of their status as the “Visegrad Four (V4),” an alliance of young European Union members committed to increasing cooperation on shared interests. (IRI)

MAY 24, 2017

Ukraine Poll: Majority Want Donbas to Remain in Ukraine

A new poll by the International Republican Institute’s (IRI) Center for Insights in Survey Research reveals that an overwhelming majority of Ukrainians think the war-torn Donbas region should remain part of Ukraine. The survey contained an over-sample of respondents from the Ukrainian-controlled areas of the Donbas, a majority of whom also affirmed their wish for the entire region to stay in Ukraine. (IRI)

JUNE 7, 2017

Russia: Saved on clothes and vacation but lashed out on household appliances and smartphones

In spite of Russians’ statements about driving for the economy, they don’t refuse to make big-budget purchases. In comparison with the previous year only the share of those who has purchased clothes and shoes has drastically decreased. Only one percent less Russians than last year splashed out on the entertainment and vacation. (ROMIR)

June 06, 2017

WEST EUROPE

UK: Ipsos MORI Final Election Poll 2017

Ipsos MORI’s final election poll for the Evening Standard indicates that Theresa May and the Conservatives are on course to win the 2017 General Election. (Ipsos Mori)

June 08, 2017

Final call poll: Tories lead by seven points and set to increase majority

Labour won the battles of the election campaign, but the Conservatives still look almost certain to win the war. The final call poll for the Times has voting intention figures of CON 42%, LAB 35%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 5%. (YouGov)

June 07, 2017

The local vs the national: the NHS comes into conflict with Brexit in terms of voters’ priorities

With the Conservatives adopting a campaign on Brexit and other national issues, and many Labour candidates adopting an exclusively local approach, YouGov looks at how the public’s national vs local perspectives differ. (YouGov)

June 7, 2017

UK: Sizing blunders won’t impact brand perception despite media backlash

Over the last couple of weeks, two high-profiles fashion brands have encountered criticism for the way they labelled women’s clothing. (YouGov)

June 07, 2017

Majority of Londoners trust Sadiq Khan to make the right decisions on terrorism

While Donald Trump may criticise Khan, Londoners trust their mayor more than they trust Theresa May or Jeremy Corbyn on terrorism. (YouGov)

June 05, 2017

Is the NHS Labour’s secret weapon in the election?

The NHS remains a key election battleground. In Ipsos MORI’s Political Monitor, the public say that the NHS and the EU/Brexit are the main issues that will help them decide which party to vote for at the election (43% and 42% respectively). (Ipsos Mori)

June 08, 2017

NORTH AMERICA

Confidence in Economy in May Lowest Since November 2016

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Though still historically high, Americans' confidence in the economy fell to a six-month low in May, largely dragged down by Democrats' worsening economic attitudes. Gallup's U.S. Economic Confidence Index averaged a score of +3 in May, down slightly from April (+5) but eight points below January's record monthly high (+11). (Gallup USA)

JUNE 6, 2017

Democratic Edge in Party Affiliation Up to Seven Points

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- In an encouraging sign for the Democratic Party's election prospects in 2018, its edge in party affiliation over the Republican Party has grown to seven percentage points, the largest it has been in over two years. During the late summer and fall of 2016, Democrats averaged a three-point advantage. (Gallup USA)

JUNE 6, 2017

Exchange Purchasers Rate Health Coverage Less Positively

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- U.S. adults who purchased their health insurance coverage through a federal or state healthcare exchange -- about 15% of those who report having insurance -- rate the quality of their coverage lower than do those who purchased their coverage via another source. Both groups are generally positive about their insurance, but the 74% of exchange purchasers who consider the quality of their coverage to be "excellent" or "good" is marginally lower than the 81% of those whose coverage stems from another source who say the same. (Gallup USA)

JUNE 8, 2017

US Abortion Attitudes Stable; No Consensus on Legality

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Stability remains the name of the game in U.S. abortion attitudes. Half of Americans say abortion should be "legal only under certain circumstances," identical to a year ago, while 29% still say it should be legal in all circumstances. The smallest proportion -- 18% this year vs. 19% in 2016 -- say it should be illegal in all circumstances. (Gallup USA)

JUNE 9, 2017

AUSTRALASIA

Roy Morgan Image of Professions Survey 2017

Health professionals have continued their domination of Australia’s most highly regarded professions with 94% of Australians (up 2% from 2016) rating Nurses ‘very high’ or ‘high’ for their ‘ethics and honesty’. Nurses have topped the annual survey for 23 years running since being included for the first time in 1994. (Roy Morgan)

June 07 2017

Over 2.6 million Australians were unemployed or under-employed in May

Australia’s real unemployment for May was 9.8% (1.284 million Australians looking for work). In addition 1.338 million Australians were under-employed in May (10.2% of the workforce). This is a total of 2.622 million Australians (20% of the workforce) looking for work or looking for more work. (Roy Morgan)

June 09 2017

MULTI-COUNTRY STUDIES

Number Of Potential Migrants Worldwide Tops 700 Million

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- After cooling off in the wake of the Great Recession, worldwide, people's desire to migrate permanently to another country showed signs of rebounding between 2013 and 2016. Gallup found 14% of the world's adults -- which translates to nearly 710 million people -- saying they would like to move to another country if they had the opportunity. This is up from 13% -- or about 630 million adults -- between 2010 and 2012. (Pew Research Center)

JUNE 8, 2017

Global Publics More Upbeat About the Economy

Nearly a decade after the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression, economic spirits are reviving. Many Europeans, Japanese and Americans feel better today about their economies than they did before the financial crisis. More broadly, in 11 of 18 countries from across the globe that were surveyed in both 2016 and 2017, publics feel more positive about their economy than they did a year ago. (Pew Research Center)

JUNE 8, 2017

CYBER WORLD

The Internet of Things Connectivity Binge: What Are the Implications?

Despite wide concern about cyberattacks, outages and privacy violations, most experts believe the Internet of Things will continue to expand successfully the next few years, tying machines to machines and linking people to valuable resources, services and opportunities. (Pew Research Center)

JUNE 6, 2017

EAST EUROPE

488-43-1/Multi-country study

Visegrad Four Poll Reveals Vulnerabilities to Russian Influence

Description: http://www.iri.org/sites/default/files/wysiwyg/b2.png

A poll of residents in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia released by the International Republican Institute’s (IRI) Center for Insights in Survey Research indicates waning commitment to Euro-Atlantic institutions and vulnerabilities to Russian influence. The four countries surveyed were chosen because of their status as the “Visegrad Four (V4),” an alliance of young European Union members committed to increasing cooperation on shared interests. (IRI)

MAY 24, 2017

“This poll reveals a number of disturbing trends in the heart of Europe, including waning support for core transatlantic institutions like NATO, tensions over the nature of European identity, and discontent with socioeconomic challenges,” said Jan Surotchak, IRI Regional Director for Europe. “After investing twenty years and hundreds of millions of dollars in building a ‘Europe Whole and Free,’ it is vital that the U.S. recognize the threat of increased Russian influence in Europe, which has the potential to undermine a key pillar of transatlantic peace and security.”

While NATO and the U.S. presence in Europe have historically been cited as a key pillar of European peace and security, in Slovakia an alarming 60 percent of respondents feel that the U.S. presence increases tensions and insecurity. A majority of respondents in all four countries either strongly or somewhat support neutrality towards both NATO and Russia (Slovakia: 73 percent; Czech Republic: 61 percent; Hungary: 58 percent; Poland: 53 percent). Seventy-five percent of Slovaks believe that Russia should be a security partner, followed by 59 percent of Czechs, 54 percent of Hungarians, and 35 percent of Poles.

The survey also reveals ambivalence about the nature of European identity. More than one-third of respondents in the Czech Republic (40 percent) and Slovakia (36 percent) feel that the European Union is pushing them to abandon traditional values, while 41 percent of Slovaks believe that “Russia has taken the side of traditional values” (Czech Republic: 27 percent; Hungary: 18 percent; Poland: 14 percent).

Reflecting dissatisfaction with the state of the economy and public services, a significant portion of respondents feel that their socioeconomic status is closer to that of Russia than Europe. Thirty-nine percent of Hungarians think that their social benefits have more in common with Russia than Europe, followed by 26 percent in Slovakia, 24 percent in Poland and 15 percent in the Czech Republic. Similarly, 37 percent of Hungarians say that their economy and standard of living is more akin to Russia’s than Europe (Slovakia: 22 percent; Poland: 19 percent; Czech Republic: 16 percent).

In addition to the widening number of respondents who identify with Russia on key issues such as identity, the poll also indicates vulnerability to Russian disinformation among respondents who get their news from nontraditional media outlets. In Slovakia, a combined 76 percent either do not believe that Russia is engaged in efforts to mislead people (38 percent), or do not care if Russia funds these outlets (38 percent).

This multinational poll was commissioned as part of IRI’s Beacon Project, an initiative that equips European stakeholders with the tools to counter Russian disinformation and meddling more effectively. "These results correspond closely with data from the Beacon Project's >versus< media monitoring tool, which has revealed a correlation between socio-economic disparities within the V4 countries and vulnerabilities to Russian influence,” said IRI Regional Program Director Miriam Lexmann. “With its data-driven approach, the Beacon Project helps European political and civil society leaders to address vulnerabilities that the Kremlin seeks to exploit.”

Methodology

This survey was conducted on behalf of the Center for Insights in Survey Research by Ipsos’ country offices in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia, respectively. Data was collected in early march through face-to-face interviews from a sample size of 1,016 in the Czech Republic; 1,024 in Slovakia; 1,000 in Hungary; and 1,020 in Poland. All regions were included in the sample except in Hungary, where inhabitants of poorly accessible regions comprising less than 1 percent of the population were not surveyed. The margin of error in each country, respectively, is: Czech Republic plus or minus 3.29 percent; Hungary plus or minus 3.25 percent; Poland plus or minus 3.25 percent; Slovakia plus or minus 3.23 percent. The level of confidence is 95 percent for all countries surveyed. Figures in charts and tables may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding error and/or multiple choice answers.

Source: http://www.iri.org/resource/visegrad-four-poll-reveals-vulnerabilities-russian-influence

488-43-2/POLL

Ukraine Poll: Majority Want Donbas to Remain in Ukraine

Description: http://www.iri.org/sites/default/files/wysiwyg/ukraine_06.2017_infographic_3.0-01.png

A new poll by the International Republican Institute’s (IRI) Center for Insights in Survey Research reveals that an overwhelming majority of Ukrainians think the war-torn Donbas region should remain part of Ukraine. The survey contained an over-sample of respondents from the Ukrainian-controlled areas of the Donbas, a majority of whom also affirmed their wish for the entire region to stay in Ukraine. (IRI)

JUNE 7, 2017

“Three years into the ongoing conflict in eastern Ukraine, which has claimed the lives of 10,000 and displaced more than 1.7 million people, Ukrainians are resolute in their desire to restore their territorial integrity and their rejection of the illegal occupation by Russian-backed separatists,” said IRI Regional Director for Eurasia Stephen Nix. “This data is critical, as it suggests that the Ukrainian people will not accept the division of their country.”

A combined 80 percent of Ukrainians nationwide and a combined 73 percent in the Donbas region believe that separatist-controlled areas of the Donbas should remain under Ukrainian control. Only six percent nationwide and four percent in the Donbas believe that these areas should either be separated from Ukraine or become part of Russia.

Despite this consensus on the future of the Donbas, a combined 60 percent of those surveyed in the Donbas do not feel that the government is taking sufficient steps to retain control of the liberated areas of the region. Only a combined 10 percent in the Donbas believe the authorities are doing enough—a 14 percent decrease since IRI’s previous oversample of the region in November 2015.

Seventy-two percent of Donbas residents cited job creation and economic improvements as the best ways to keep the Donbas part of Ukraine. “This represents a clear call to action for Ukrainian authorities,” Nix said. “Citizens in the Donbas must be made to feel that they can expect to enjoy a more stable and prosperous future as part of Ukraine. Improving the quality of life of citizens will yield greater stability for the region in the long term.”

Methodology

This survey was conducted by Rating Group Ukraine on behalf of the Center for Insights in Survey Research. Polling was conducted throughout Ukraine (except for the occupied territories of Crimea and the Donbas) from April 21 to May 5, 2017 through face-to-face interviews at respondents’ homes. The sample consisted of 2,400 permanent residents of Ukraine aged 18 and older and eligible to vote, and is representative of the general population by gender, age, region and size of settlement. An additional 1,378 respondents were also surveyed in the Ukrainian-controlled territories of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.

The margin of error does not exceed plus or minus 2 percent. The average response rate was 64.2 percent. Charts and graphs may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding. This survey was funded by the Government of Canada.

Source: http://www.iri.org/resource/ukraine-poll-majority-want-donbas-remain-ukraine

488-43-3/POLL

Russia: Saved on clothes and vacation but lashed out on household appliances and smartphones

In spite of Russians’ statements about driving for the economy, they don’t refuse to make big-budget purchases. In comparison with the previous year only the share of those who has purchased clothes and shoes has drastically decreased. Only one percent less Russians than last year splashed out on the entertainment and vacation. (ROMIR)

June 06, 2017

On another expenditure side the increase was observed, especially in household appliances and electronics, smartphone and tablet purchases, in purchase and service of a vehicle, in apartment, house and summer house purchases. The respondents traditionally show the modesty in plans on tangible expenditures in the next months. This isn’t, however, about an overwhelming economy as it was two years ago. Even more, the share of Russians who are going to lash out on holiday trips has increased.

This April within the regular all-Russian opinion poll Romir research holding asked respondents about big-budget purchases they’ve made within the period of the last six months and they are going to make in the following six months. Such polls have been held since 2011 what helps to monitor the dynamics of big-budget purchases of Russians.

Let us recall that two years ago when the crisis began Russians made loud statements about the intention to the overwhelming economy. According to the result of the last year poll, the overwhelming economy wasn’t realized. In 2016 only the share of those who purchased apartments, vehicles and jewelry decreased. On another expenditure side the increase was observed.

According to the results of the poll, it has emerged that however hard and crisis Russians called 2016, it hasn’t had a significant impact on making big-budget purchases (see Diagram 1).

Diagram 1. Heavy expenditure in 2013-2017 (%).

Description: http://romir.ru/images/upload/pic_78055_1497442886.jpg

Data source: Romir, 2017

Thus, in comparison with the previous year only the share of those who has purchased clothes and shoes has drastically decreased – from 38% to 27%. Only one percent less Russians than last year splashed out on the entertainment (6%) and vacation (10%). On another expenditure side the increase was observed, especially in household appliances and electronics (21%), smartphone and tablet purchases (11%), in purchase (7%) and service (8%) of a vehicle, in apartment, house and summer house purchases (4%).

Diagram 2. What they've purchased within the period of the last 6 months in comparison to what they had been planning to purchase (%).

Data source: Romir, 2017

As Diagram 2 shows, claimed one-year plans on big-budget purchases went separate ways with the reality increasing in spendings. Russians were lucky to save only on clothes and shoes – 33% had purchases in mind and 27% really made purchases. 12% of Russians had plans of spending much money on their vacation but only 10% executed their plans. Plans and the reality almost coincided in terms of tuition fees (5% and 6%), entertainment spending (4% and 6%), furniture purchase (6% and 8%) and jewelry (1% and 2%). All other were exceeded provided that in some cases at a double and more rate.

Thus, for instance, purchases of household appliances and electronics serve as shining examples. Last year 8% of respondents had plans on making such purchases but the share of HAE buyers actually increased to 21%. The same is true for smartphone and tablet purchases. 5% of Russians were going to buy them but 11% did it after all. No one is impervious to smartphone breakdown, so the purchases of new phones sometimes become cost implications.

The vehicle situation also attracts attention. While only 2% talked about the purchase of vehicle last year, in fact the number of buyers increased threefold to 7%. 8% of Russians put their vehicle in costly repair though only 4% were set to do it. However, such type of expenditure is hard to predict – it could be the situation which claimed urgent investments in vehicle repair.

The overdraft also happened in medical expenses. Last year 8% of the respondents laid out expenditures on medicine and treatment but as many as 16% of Russians really made purchases. Unfortunately, references to a doctor can’t be always planned, thus we can see the increase in unexpected expenses. 9% of the respondents had plans of repairing apartments, houses and summer houses that is less than finally did it (15%). Someone was likely to repair immediately sanitaryware or heating appliances or someone probably invested in design improvement.

Thus, taking into account the increase in real spending in comparison with plans, it is not surprising that the share of Russians who didn’t have plans on making big-budget purchases also decreased from 39% to 31%. Please note that the number of Russians who didn’t make big-budget purchases returned to pre-crisis level last year and now remains this level. The share of those who economize was higher only in 2015. Then more than a half of Russians (59%) didn’t lay plans on major purchases.

Diagram 3. What they've purchased within the period of the last 6 months and what they are planning to purchase (%).

Description: http://romir.ru/images/upload/pic_73639_1497442907.jpg

Data source: Romir, 2017

Nowadays 38% of Russians said about the lack of plans on buying anything expensive (see Diagram 3). It is a regular index which is identical to the last year’s index. In other expenditure terms the decrease in spending is declared, possibly in comparison with purchases made in the period of last six months.

In fact, within such volumes of household appliance buying it is not surprising that the share of potential buyers has decreased (11%). Similar plans are declared in terms of spending on clothes (21%), apartment repair (10%), smartphone purchase (5%) and repair and purchase of a vehicle (4% each).

The only item of expenditure which Russians are trying to increase in comparison with last year is spending on vacation and travelling (14%). If it really would happen, then it can be said that there is a remedial trend on tourism market. In 2015 Russians saved money under many items including vacation. Last year our compatriots would like to spend their vacation abroad but under closed Turkey and Egypt many of them were likely to refuse travelling taking into account more expensive domestic tourism. This year we believe Russians will spent more money on travelling than last year.

*The all-Russian survey of Romir surveyed a representative sample of 1500 respondents aged 18 and over, residing in cities and villages and in all federal districts. The sample represents the adult population of Russia.

Source: http://romir.ru/studies/925_1496696400/

WEST EUROPE

488-43-4/poll

UK: Ipsos MORI Final Election Poll 2017

Ipsos MORI’s final election poll for the Evening Standard indicates that Theresa May and the Conservatives are on course to win the 2017 General Election. (Ipsos Mori)

June 08, 2017

CON 44; LAB 36; LIB DEM 7; UKIP 4

Ipsos MORI’s final 2017 election poll for the Evening Standard indicates that Theresa May and the Conservatives are on course to win the 2017 General Election. Our headline estimate of voting intention is Conservative 44%, Labour 36%, Liberal Democrats 7%, UKIP 4%, and Greens 2%. The age pattern seen throughout the election continues, with young people more likely to vote Labour than Conservative (by 49% to 28% among 18-34s), while the 65+ say they will vote Conservative by 60% to 23% for Labour.

One in five of voters (19%) say they might still change their mind before they vote (similar to our final poll in the 2015 election). Labour supporters are marginally more likely to say they could change their mind, one in five (19%) compared to 13% of Conservative voters (and 33% of Liberal Democrats).

Theresa May leads Jeremy Corbyn in the final days of the campaign when it comes to who the public think would be the most capable Prime Minister. Just under half think Mrs May would be the most capable (47% - down three points from last week) while over one in three choose Mr Corbyn (36% - little change). Again, young people prefer Mr Corbyn (by 54% to 29% among 18-34s) while older voters still opt for Mrs May (by 65% to 21% among those aged 65+).

Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research at Ipsos MORI, said:

The Conservatives had a wobble last week, but have regained a clear lead in the last few days. Theresa May’s advantage over Jeremy Corbyn is also lower than it was at the start of the campaign, but she and her party have kept their support among key voting groups such as older people. Having said that, one in five voters say they might still change their mind, so there are still votes to fight for.

Technical Note:

Ipsos MORI interviewed a representative sample of 1,291 adults aged 18+ across Great Britain. Interviews were conducted by telephone 6^th June – 7^th June 2017. Data are weighted to the profile of the population (by age, gender, region, work status/sector, social grade, car in household, child in household, tenure, education (updated) and newspaper readership), and voting intention figures are based on all registered, and an adjustment for turnout overclaim based on age, and now also including tenure. As in all our final polls in recent general elections, we have reallocated refusals to the voting intention question on the basis of their newspaper readership.

Source: https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/ipsos-mori-final-election-poll-2017

488-43-5/POLL

Final call poll: Tories lead by seven points and set to increase majority

Labour won the battles of the election campaign, but the Conservatives still look almost certain to win the war. The final call poll for the Times has voting intention figures of CON 42%, LAB 35%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 5%. (YouGov)

June 07, 2017

Polls only predict shares of the vote – translating that into seat numbers and government majorities is more difficult – it depends on whether a party is winning or losing votes in the right places. The seven point Conservative lead is the same as at the previous election, but we think it is likely they will nevertheless be returned with an increased majority.

Our Scottish polling for the Times suggest the Tories are outperforming there and will win a good handful of seats from the SNP, and there is also a widespread expectation that they will perform disproportionately well in Labour-held seats that voted for Brexit.

At the start of the election campaign our polls showed a huge Conservative lead. Over the last six weeks that has been gradually whittled away, mostly through increases in Labour support. Whatever the differences between polls (and we are not blind to the fact that there is lots of variation between the figures different pollsters are showing), every company has told the same story of a shrinking Tory margin. But as we go into Election Day, the Conservatives still look set to secure a solid lead in votes and an overall majority. The question is how large.

As this is our final call before the election we made two minor changes to our method. The first is that rather than asking people which party they’d vote for, we showed respondents a list of the people actually standing in their constituency and asked which one they would vote for. Hopefully this will help pick up any tactical vote considerations and remove any issue of people saying they would vote UKIP or Green in seats where UKIP or the Greens are not actually standing.

Secondly we have reallocated those respondents who say don’t know, but who also say they are very likely to vote (voters who my colleague Adam McDonnell described earlier in the campaign as “true undecided”). We assume uncertain voters who say they “don’t know” at this stage won’t actually vote, but those who say they are 8+/10 certain to vote we have reallocated back to the party they voted for in 2015.

From the beginning of the campaign and throughout we have characterised this as an experimental election for pollsters. All of us called the election wrong in 2015, and while there is a broad consensus that the cause of the problem was inadequate sampling – the sort of people who did polls were too engaged, too political and too likely to vote – different companies have taken different approaches towards solving the problem.

Given one can hardly run a “test election”, tomorrow will be the first time those methods are tried out. The honest truth is that as pollsters we don’t yet know whether those methods have worked yet – one can only hope that some do and the industry as a whole can learn from the ones that succeed and move on from those that did not.

For now, YouGov’s final call for the 2017 election is for a seven point Conservative lead, leading to an increased Conservative majority in the Commons.

Source: https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/06/07/final-call-poll-tories-seven-points-and-set-increa/

488-43-6/POLL

The local vs the national: the NHS comes into conflict with Brexit in terms of voters’ priorities

With the Conservatives adopting a campaign on Brexit and other national issues, and many Labour candidates adopting an exclusively local approach, YouGov looks at how the public’s national vs local perspectives differ. (YouGov)

June 7, 2017

One of the features of this election has been the attempt by Labour candidates to separate the local from the national. With reports that the party’s leader is very unpopular on the doorstep, Labour candidates have been trying to convince voters to think about their local candidate when voting rather than Jeremy Corbyn.

The Conservatives meanwhile are centring their campaign solely on Theresa May and her ability to negotiate Brexit and handle other national issues like defence and security.

Framing things this way raises an interesting question: how far does the importance of an issue at a national level diverge from how it is seen at a local level? What issues would a candidate looking to fight a local campaign be better off tackling compared to a candidate campaigning on national issues?

To find out, YouGov asked respondents three sets of open-ended questions exploring the most important issues at a local and national level:

· The single most important issue facing the local area/country as a whole

· The single most important issue in the local area/country as a whole in deciding how people will vote in the election

· The single most important issue they would prioritise if they were their local MP/Prime Minister

Across the three sets of questions, when it comes to the most important issues facing the country Brexit comes top, at between 31-36%. However, this figure drops off significantly when respondents were talking about their local area, gaining only 8%-13%.

By contrast, while health is in second place when it comes to national issues (at 14%-16%) it moves up to first place when respondents think about their local concerns (21%). Those aged 65+ were the group most likely most likely to rank health as their number one local concern.

Some issues are much more polarising. Housing gains more resonance as a local issue than a national one (7%-11% vs 0%-1%), whereas defence and security gains more traction at a national than local level (9%-18% vs 2%-3%).

To an extent, this research backs up the phrase that “all politics is local.” However, in a general election – where the party leaders are front and centre, fighting for airtime on the six o’clock news – the campaign is national. Both parties will hope that they have picked the right battles to win the right seats. We will know for sure on Friday.

Source: https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/06/07/local-vs-national-nhs-comes-conflict-brexit-terms-/

488-43-7/POLL

UK: Sizing blunders won’t impact brand perception despite media backlash

Over the last couple of weeks, two high-profiles fashion brands have encountered criticism for the way they labelled women’s clothing. (YouGov)

June 07, 2017

Online fashion retailer Asos came under fire for advertising a pair of UK size 10 shorts as a size large, while a similar incident involving H&M hit the headlines in late May.

YouGov brand tracking data helps us to understand how the respective stories had an impact on the public’s perception of the brands.

Asos’s Buzz score among all respondents (that measures whether or not someone has heard something positive about the brand in the past two weeks) dropped from +3 to 0 in the period surrounding the error. Among those that would consider using the brand, the drop in score was even greater – down from +22 to +16.

Looking at H&M, its score among all respondents dropped from +4 to +1, while among considerers it fell from +18 to +9.

However, as with several crises YouGov has tracked, the brands have minimized damage by responding in a measured way. Asos in particular managed the situation well by reacting quickly to assure people it had resolved the issue.

This is evidenced in Asos’s Impression score – that measures whether people have a positive or negative impression of the brand – which has in fact grown, after an initial dip following the news stories.

In fact, the brand has dealt with the story so efficiently that it’s Index score (an overall measure of brand health) has risen from +6 to +9 in the past two weeks, indicating that Asos has in fact managed to use the crisis to help draw attention to some of the positive traits (or offers) it wishes to publicise.

It is a slightly different story for H&M. It has fared less well among women – with the brand’s impression score has dropping from +20 to +15. However, encouragingly its Index has not been unduly damaged.

So, despite facing a media backlash, and a potential Twitter storm, both brands have managed to steer themselves away from trouble and remain in a good position, showing a good example of how to respond to an emerging scandal.

Source: https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/06/07/sizing-blunders-wont-impact-brand-perception-despi/

488-43-8/POLL

Majority of Londoners trust Sadiq Khan to make the right decisions on terrorism

While Donald Trump may criticise Khan, Londoners trust their mayor more than they trust Theresa May or Jeremy Corbyn on terrorism. (YouGov)

June 05, 2017

London mayor Sadiq Khan came in for criticism from US president Donald Trump on Sunday after Khan called on Londoners not to be alarmed by an increased and armed police presence that day following the terror attack on London Bridge.

Taking the Mayor’s comments out of context, Trump tweeted “At least 7 dead and 48 wounded in terror attack and Mayor of London says there is "no reason to be alarmed!"

Despite the US president’s suggestions to the contrary, a YouGov survey conducted last week found that the majority of Londoners (51%) trust Khan to make the right decisions about keeping Britain safe from terrorism. Only three in ten Londoners (30%) say they don’t trust the Mayor of London to make the right call on terrorism.

In fact, Londoners trust their mayor more than they trust Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn to make the right call on terrorism. Both the Prime Minister and Leader of the Opposition are less trusted than trusted on this topic. While 42% trust May and 41% trust Corbyn, 46% don’t trust the Prime Minister and 47% don not trust the Labour leader.

This is not the first time YouGov has found Londoners backing their mayor on the subject of terrorism. In response to an attack in New York last year, Londoners supported Khan by 69% to 22% in the face of media criticism when he said that being prepared for terror attacks are “part and parcel” of living in a big city.

Nor is this the only occasion where Trump and Khan have clashed. In response to previous criticism from the Mayor that the president’s views on Islam were ignorant, Trump challenged Khan to an IQ test. A subsequent YouGov survey found that British people expect that the Mayor would have beat Trump handily in such a test. Using a scoring system that based on the responses given by the public, giving incrementally lower multipliers for 'far above average', 'slightly above average', 'average' and so on, Sadiq Khan scored 67.9 compared to Trump’s 45.1.

Source: https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/06/05/majority-londoners-trust-sadiq-khan-make-right-dec/

488-43-9/POLL

Is the NHS Labour’s secret weapon in the election?

Given that it is such an important issue to the public, it is not surprising that Labour is making the NHS a centrepiece of its election campaign, says Kate Duxbury.

The NHS remains a key election battleground. In Ipsos MORI’s Political Monitor, the public say that the NHS and the EU/Brexit are the main issues that will help them decide which party to vote for at the election (43% and 42% respectively). (Ipsos Mori)

June 08, 2017

Given that it is such an important issue to the public, it is not surprising that Labour is making the NHS a centrepiece of its election campaign. These messages seem to be cutting through: our May Issues Index shows a jump in concern about the NHS, leaving it as the most important issue facing Britain (61%, the highest score since April 2002 – and with interviews mostly completed before the cyber attacks).

Labour has traditionally performed better than the Conservatives on healthcare. Our most recent polling, completed before the manifestoes were released, returns a 15 percentage point lead on healthcare for Labour, with 40% saying Labour has the best policies and 25% that the Conservatives do. Healthcare is the only one of the top five policy areas in which Labour has a lead (the Tories lead on Brexit, the economy, education and immigration).

Not only does Labour have a lead, but the Conservatives are open to challenge. The public are worried about the future of the NHS. Recent polling for the Health Foundations shows that around half think the general standard of care provided by the NHS will get worse over the next few years (48%) and only 14% think it will get better. The British public are more pessimistic about healthcare than other public services and they are also more pessimistic than any of the 23 countries included in our Global Trends Survey.

Although the public are worried about the future of the NHS, they remain positive about how the NHS is delivering. Data from The King’s Fund’s British Social Attitudes survey show that overall satisfaction with the running of the NHS remains consistently high; in 2016, 63% said they were satisfied and 22% said they were dissatisfied, showing no statistically significant change from 2015. And in Ipsos MORI’s own Global Trends Survey, the British are among the most positive countries about the quality of healthcare they can access.

So despite Labour having a lead in the polls on healthcare and high levels of concern about the future of the NHS, exacerbated by a succession of difficult winters, satisfaction has held up. And Labour’s 15 percentage point lead on healthcare is not as clear-cut as it may sound. The Prime Minister is more trusted on healthcare than her own party (34% trust May versus 25% for the Conservatives) – and there is little to choose between Corbyn and May (37% trust Corbyn versus 34% for May). And not only that, but Conservative supporters are just as likely to say the NHS is a key issue facing the country as Labour supporters – and of course they may prefer Conservative policies on the issue. So just because the NHS is seen as the top issue, that doesn’t mean all of that will work to Labour’s advantage.

How might this play out in the ballot box? Until patient and public perceptions of the NHS reach a tipping point that we have not yet seen, it is unlikely to be the deciding factor in the ballot box. It wasn’t in the 2015 general election, when the NHS was again seen as the most important issue facing Britain. But our Issues Index, reporting a 15-year high in concern about the NHS, suggests we are edging ever closer to that tipping point.

Labour’s manifesto pledges for the NHS are ticking off the list of key concerns for the public. Increased funding, a commitment to meeting waiting time targets, scrapping pay caps for NHS staff, addressing the postcode lottery – and the list goes on – are all pledges that play well with voters. Now we must wait to see whether the public can be persuaded that the NHS is in enough trouble that it should determine who they vote for.

Source: https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/nhs-labours-secret-weapon-election

NORTH AMERICA

488-43-10/POLL

Confidence in Economy in May Lowest Since November 2016

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Though still historically high, Americans' confidence in the economy fell to a six-month low in May, largely dragged down by Democrats' worsening economic attitudes. Gallup's U.S. Economic Confidence Index averaged a score of +3 in May, down slightly from April (+5) but eight points below January's record monthly high (+11). (Gallup USA)

JUNE 6, 2017

Description: Gallup's U.S. Economic Confidence Index

Gallup's U.S. Economic Confidence Index is the average of two components: how Americans rate current economic conditions and whether they believe the economy is improving or getting worse. The index has a theoretical maximum of +100 if all Americans were to say the economy is doing well and improving, and a theoretical minimum of -100 if all were to say the economy is doing poorly and getting worse.

Confidence in early June appears to be no different from that in May, with the latest weekly average also +3 for the week ending June 4.

Since the November presidential election, many Americans' attitudes about the economy have dramatically improved. Both the weekly and monthly averages of Gallup's U.S. Economic Confidence Index now consistently produce positive figures rather than negative ones, as it largely did before the election.

The sharp uptick in economic confidence after the election was largely attributable to surging confidence among Republicans, but President Donald Trump's business background or his economic proposals may have also convinced other Americans that the economy would prosper under his leadership. U.S. financial markets have seemed to subscribe to this line of thinking, with several indexes reaching all-time highs in 2017.

Over the past few months, however, confidence has fallen as economic attitudes of self-identified Democrats have worsened -- a trend that continued in May as Democrats' monthly index score fell to -26. This represents a five-point dip from April's average and the lowest monthly index score for Democrats since November 2011 (-29), when confidence was recovering from the tumble it took during the standoff between Congress and former President Barack Obama over raising the federal debt ceiling.

Description: Gallup's U.S. Economic Confidence Index

However, independents' economic ratings have also dipped in recent months. After peaking at +5 in January, independents' index score fell into negative territory in April, when it averaged -1. It remained negative last month, with May's score reaching -3.

Current Conditions Component Remains Positive, but Economic Outlook Is Negative

Even as some Americans become more pessimistic about the economy overall, attitudes about the economy's current conditions have been relatively stable. Last month, 32% of Americans assessed the economy as "excellent" or "good," while 22% said the economy was "poor." Overall, the current conditions component averaged +10 in May, similar to +11 in April and three points shy of the nine-year high (+13) the measure hit in February and March.

Meanwhile, perceptions about the economy's outlook have more clearly deteriorated. In May, slightly more Americans (49%) said the economy was "getting worse" than said it was "getting better" (45%). The economic outlook component stood at -4 for the month, representing a slight dip from April when the component averaged -1, and it is down notably from its record high in January of +11.

Description: Gallup's U.S. Economic Confidence Index

Bottom Line

While Americans' confidence in the economy remains stronger than it was before the 2016 presidential election, it is not as strong as it was earlier this year.

Republicans' confidence rose more sharply than Democrats' fell in the weeks after Trump's election. However, polarization being as it is, it seemed likely that Democrats would become increasingly pessimistic about the economy as the Obama administration (and its influence on the economy) fell farther in the rearview mirror. In May, this happened to some degree, with confidence among Democrats falling to its lowest level since November 2011. However, Democrats still express more confidence in the economy now than Republicans typically did when Barack Obama was president.

SURVEY METHODS

Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted May 1-31, 2017, on the Gallup U.S. Daily survey, with a random sample of 15,181 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. For results based on the total sample of national adults, the margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point at the 95% confidence level. All reported margins of sampling error include computed design effects for weighting.

Each sample of national adults includes a minimum quota of 70% cellphone respondents and 30% landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas by time zone within region. Landline and cellular telephone numbers are selected using random-digit-dial methods.

Source: http://www.gallup.com/poll/211742/confidence-economy-may-lowest-november-2016.aspx?g_source=Economy&g_medium=newsfeed&g_campaign=tiles

488-43-11/POLL

Democratic Edge in Party Affiliation Up to Seven Points

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- In an encouraging sign for the Democratic Party's election prospects in 2018, its edge in party affiliation over the Republican Party has grown to seven percentage points, the largest it has been in over two years. During the late summer and fall of 2016, Democrats averaged a three-point advantage.

JUNE 6, 2017

Description: Democratic Edge in Party Affiliation Expands

These results are based on Gallup Daily tracking throughout May. Overall, 45% of U.S. adults self-identify as Democrats or say they are independents who lean Democratic, while 38% identify as Republicans or lean Republican.

The growing Democratic advantage in recent months is mostly attributable to a decline in Republican affiliation rather than an increase in Democratic affiliation. Since November, the percentage of Republicans and Republican leaners has fallen four percentage points, while there has been a one-point rise in Democratic identification or leaning. The Republican decline has been offset mostly by a three-point increase in the percentage of Americans with no party preference or leaning.

President Donald Trump's unpopularity is likely a factor in the Republican Party's falling fortunes. The president's job approval ratinggenerally has held near 40% since February -- well below average forpresidents historically, and especially for those in their first few months in office.

Democrats last had a seven-point advantage in Gallup's Daily tracking trend in April 2015, about the time several national figures, including Hillary Clinton, were announcing their candidacy for president. Gallup polling from that time found Clinton to be the best-liked of the potential candidates in both parties, although the poll was conducted just as news of her use of a private email server was emerging. That controversy continued to mount and dogged her candidacy throughout the campaign.

The last time Democrats had a lead larger than seven points in Gallup's tracking trend was September 2009, President Barack Obama's first year in office, when the lead was nine points. That month, 47% of Americans identified as Democrats or leaned Democratic, and 38% identified as Republicans or leaned Republican. Democrats consistently enjoyed double-digit advantages in 2008 and 2009 as the unpopular Republican President George W. Bush finished out his term and was replaced by the highly popular Obama.

After his first year in office, Obama rarely managed majority approval ratings, and the gap in party affiliation between the two parties was generally small.

Implications

Party identification and political independents' party leanings are major predictors of individual vote choice. At the national level, party affiliation is related to the outcomes of midterm elections. The current seven-point Democratic edge in party affiliation is similar to what it was in 1998 and 2006, the two strongest Democratic years among the most recent midterm elections.

If Democrats can maintain a significant advantage in Americans' party preference over the next 17 months, it would serve them well in the 2018 midterm elections.

The opposition party to the president usually fares better than the president's party in midterm elections, and the opposition has done especially well when the president has low job approval ratings. With Trump's approval ratings stuck near 40%, Republicans are understandably nervous about the party's prospects in 2018.

However, the current party affiliation data indicate that Democrats are not necessarily expanding their base as much as they are benefiting from a decline in the Republican base. Expanding their own base would strengthen Democrats' ability to offset usual Republican advantages in voter turnout and put them in a better position to win the seats they need to have a majority in one or both houses of Congress.

These data are available in Gallup Analytics.

SURVEY METHODS

Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted May 1-31, 2017, on the Gallup U.S. Daily survey, with a random sample of 15,219 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. For results based on the total sample of national adults, the margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point at the 95% confidence level. All reported margins of sampling error include computed design effects for weighting.

Source: http://www.gallup.com/poll/211817/democratic-edge-party-affiliation-seven-points.aspx?g_source=Politics&g_medium=newsfeed&g_campaign=tiles

488-43-12/POLL

Exchange Purchasers Rate Health Coverage Less Positively

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- U.S. adults who purchased their health insurance coverage through a federal or state healthcare exchange -- about 15% of those who report having insurance -- rate the quality of their coverage lower than do those who purchased their coverage via another source. Both groups are generally positive about their insurance, but the 74% of exchange purchasers who consider the quality of their coverage to be "excellent" or "good" is marginally lower than the 81% of those whose coverage stems from another source who say the same.

JUNE 8, 2017

Quality of Coverage, by Source

Overall, how would you rate your primary health insurance coverage -- as excellent, good, only fair or poor?

	Purchased from exchange	Purchased elsewhere
	%	%
Coverage is excellent/good	74	81
Coverage is fair/poor	26	19
GALLUP DAILY, MARCH 8-MAY 7, 2017

Fewer insurance providers and increased premiums on some state exchanges in 2017 could be driving perceptions that the quality of coverage purchased on exchanges lags behind that acquired from other sources.

Since 2008, Gallup has tracked the share of U.S. adults without health insurance -- a percentage that fell to a record low of 10.9% in each of the last two quarters of 2016. The current results are based on 24,156 interviews with U.S. adults aged 18 and older on Gallup's Daily tracking poll from March 8 to May 7 of this year. Gallup not only asked individuals to identify the source of their health insurance coverage -- including if they purchased insurance on an Affordable Care Act (ACA) exchange -- but to rate the quality of their coverage.

Least-Healthy Americans Most Likely to Purchase From Exchanges

In addition to asking about their health insurance coverage, Gallup asked adults to rate their own physical health on a five-point scale between "excellent" and "poor." Those who assess their own physical health as "poor" are the most likely to have purchased their coverage through an ACA exchange. In fact, individuals with the poorest self-reported health are more than twice as likely as individuals with excellent health to have purchased coverage through an exchange.

Exchange Purchases, by Physical Health

Did you get your primary health insurance from a state or federal health insurance exchange, such as healthcare.gov, or not?

	Excellent health	Very good health	Good health	Fair health	Poor health
	%	%	%	%	%
Purchased from state or federal exchange	12	15	16	15	27
Purchased elsewhere	88	85	84	85	73
GALLUP DAILY, MARCH 8-MAY 7, 2017

The discrepancy in exchange purchases between those in poor and excellent health could stem, in part, from differing incentives for those two groups. For example, healthy individuals without coverage through an employer or other source may decide to pay the penalty for not carrying coverage -- an option less viable for adults in poor health who do not qualify for coverage under another source.

Quality of Coverage Among Exchange Purchasers, by Physical Health

Overall, how would you rate your primary health insurance coverage -- as excellent, good, only fair or poor?

	Excellent health	Very good health	Good health	Fair health	Poor health
	%	%	%	%	%
Coverage is excellent/good	79	76	78	69	62
Coverage is fair/poor	21	24	22	31	39
GALLUP DAILY, MARCH 8-MAY 7, 2017

Among those who purchased coverage on an exchange, adults with the poorest health also rate the quality of their coverage the lowest. While 62% of individuals in poor physical health say their coverage is excellent or good, nearly eight in 10 adults who rate their physical health as "excellent," "very good" or "good" say the same.

To sustain robust exchanges, healthcare markets must attract enough healthy purchasers whose lower cost burden helps offset the steeper costs of less-healthy purchasers. Yet, these results suggest that not only are adults with the poorest health the most likely to purchase coverage on exchanges, but they also receive the lowest-quality coverage.

Military/Veteran's Coverage Rated Highest, Self-Purchased Plans Lowest

Among all health insurance sources, adults with military or veteran's insurance rate their coverage most highly, with nearly nine in 10 reporting that their coverage is excellent or good. Union-sponsored health insurance and Medicare also receive high marks -- 86% and 84% of individuals with coverage from these sources, respectively, rate it as excellent or good.

Description: 3

Nearly three-quarters of those with a plan fully paid for by themselves or a family member -- many of whom bought through exchanges -- say their health insurance coverage is excellent or good. By comparison, about four in five adults who receive their insurance through an employer or Medicaid rate their coverage highly.

Higher-Income, Older Americans Rate Coverage Highest

Across key demographic groups, adults aged 65 and older grade their health insurance coverage the most positively. Nearly nine in 10 in this age group -- the vast majority of whom receive Medicare coverage -- consider their insurance to be excellent or good. By comparison, three-quarters of those aged 25 to 65 rate their coverage this highly.

Relatively small differences separate the evaluations of healthcare coverage quality across gender, race and income groups. However, whites, women and higher-income Americans evaluate their coverage slightly more positively.

Health Insurance Coverage Quality, by Demographics

	Coverage excellent/good
	%
GENDER
Men	78
Women	81
RACE
Whites	81
Blacks	78
Asians	77
Hispanics	77
INCOME
Less than $36,000	77
$36,000 to <$60,000	79
$60,000 to <$90,000	79
$90,000+	82
AGE
18 to 24	83
25 to 34	75
35 to 49	75
50 to 65	77
65+	89
GALLUP DAILY, MARCH 8-MAY 7, 2017

Implications

In addition to contributing to the lowest uninsured rate since Gallup began tracking Americans' health insurance coverage in 2008, the Affordable Care Act today is more popular than at any point since it went into effect. Republicans and Democrats alike have warmed to the healthcare law in recent months, with 55% of U.S. adults approving of it in April 2017 after only 42% did so last November.

Yet uncertainty about the future of the healthcare system continues. In May, House Republicans passed a bill repealing many of the key features of the ACA. Against the backdrop of a Congressional Budget Office score that estimates 23 million Americans could lose coverage under the House bill, Senate Republicans say they will scrap the House version of the bill and start anew.

Meanwhile, in May, healthcare surged to tie dissatisfaction with government at the top of Americans' list of the biggest problems facing the country. And, despite a declining uninsured rate in recent years, Americans' out-of-pocket expenses on healthcare continue to rise. As leaders debate the merits of the ACA and competing Republican alternatives, both parties must pursue concurrent goals of minimizing healthcare costs and the number of uninsured while also maximizing the quality of the coverage received.

These data are available in Gallup Analytics.

SURVEY METHODS

Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted March 8-May 7, 2017, on the Gallup U.S. Daily survey, with a random sample of 24,156 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. For results based on the total sample of national adults, the margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point at the 95% confidence level.

Source: http://www.gallup.com/poll/211889/exchange-purchasers-rate-health-coverage-less-positively.aspx?g_source=Well-Being&g_medium=newsfeed&g_campaign=tiles

488-43-13/POLL

US Abortion Attitudes Stable; No Consensus on Legality

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Stability remains the name of the game in U.S. abortion attitudes. Half of Americans say abortion should be "legal only under certain circumstances," identical to a year ago, while 29% still say it should be legal in all circumstances. The smallest proportion -- 18% this year vs. 19% in 2016 -- say it should be illegal in all circumstances. (Gallup USA)

JUNE 9, 2017

Description: Trend: Americans’ Views on the Legality of Abortion

The dispersion of abortion views today, with the largest segment of Americans favoring the middle position, is broadly similar to what Gallup has found in four decades of measurement.

Also, as is the case today, more Americans typically have thought abortion should be completely legal than completely illegal. The proportions have varied from a 20-percentage-point advantage for the always-legal position in 1994 to a virtual tie at several points. This year's 11-point edge for the always-legal position is similar to its average nine-point lead across the full trend.

Gallup also asks those who say abortion should be legal in certain circumstances whether those should be most circumstances or only a few, and, by nearly a 3-to-1 ratio, they choose only a few, 36% vs. 13%. Thus, the slight majority of Americans (54%) favor curtailing abortion rights -- saying abortion should be illegal or legal in only a few circumstances. Slightly fewer, 42%, want access to abortion to be unrestricted or legal in most circumstances.

The 2017 results are based on Gallup's annual Values and Beliefs survey, conducted May 3-7.

Americans Closely Divided on Morality of Abortion, Abortion Labels

Americans' views on two other aspects of abortion -- whether it's moral and whether they consider themselves "pro-choice" or "pro-life" -- have also been steady over the past year.

Slightly more U.S. adults today believe the procedure is morally wrong (49%) than morally acceptable (43%). This has also been the case in most readings since Gallup started tracking this annually in 2001.

Description: Trend: Americans' Views on the Morality of Abortion

In terms of the two abortion labels, 49% of U.S. adults consider themselves pro-choice on the abortion issue, while 46% consider themselves pro-life.

Again, this represents almost no change compared with a year ago and is consistent with the close division seen over the past decade. By contrast, in the earliest years Gallup asked this, in 1995 and 1996, there was greater attachment to the pro-choice label, with 56% and 53%, respectively, identifying as such. Americans continued to prefer the pro-choice label over the pro-life label by a slight margin in most years through 2009, but the two have since been about tied.

Description: Trend: Americans' Identification With Abortion Labels

Women Tilt Slightly More "Pro-Choice"

Women and men hold roughly similar positions on abortion, with the largest segments of both groups believing abortion should be legal in only certain circumstances and slightly more calling abortion morally wrong than morally acceptable.

At the same time, slightly more women than men take the always-legal position on abortion as well as call themselves pro-choice. These gender patterns are consistent with what Gallup has found in most of the past several years.

Summary of 2017 Abortion Views by Gender

	Men	Women
	%	%
LEGALITY OF ABORTION
Legal in all circumstances	24	33
Legal in only certain circumstances	55	46
Illegal in all circumstances	18	18
MORALITY OF ABORTION
Morally acceptable	43	43
Morally wrong	48	49
ABORTION POSITION
"Pro-choice"	45	52
"Pro-life"	48	43
GALLUP, MAY 3-7, 2017

Record Percentage of Democrats Identify as "Pro-Choice"

Abortion attitudes differ far more by political party than by gender, a finding seen across all three questions. The majority of Republicans think abortion should be legal in only certain circumstances, and solid majorities call it morally wrong and consider themselves pro-life. By contrast, the largest segment of Democrats say abortion should be legal in all circumstances, while solid majorities consider abortion morally acceptable and call themselves pro-choice.

Political independents fall between the two major parties on these measures, although they come a bit closer to Republicans than to Democrats in their choice of abortion labels.

Record Percentage of Democrats Identify as "Pro-Choice"

	Republicans	Independents	Democrats
	%	%	%
LEGALITY OF ABORTION
Legal in all circumstances	14	28	46
Legal in only certain circumstances	56	51	44
Illegal in all circumstances	28	17	8
MORALITY OF ABORTION
Morally acceptable	27	42	61
Morally wrong	65	48	32
ABORTION POSITION
"Pro-choice"	36	44	71
"Pro-life"	61	48	26
GALLUP, MAY 3-7, 2017

The 2017 partisan differences are also in line with prior years, although Gallup trends chronicle a gradual increase in the percentage of Democrats calling themselves pro-choice since 2001. The 71% reading this year is the highest in the past 17 years. Meanwhile, the percentage who are pro-choice among independents has waned somewhat, and, although it has varied among Republicans, it is similar today to 2001.

Description: Trend: Democrats Identifying as "Pro-Choice" at Record-High 71%

Bottom Line

There is no consensus among the American public for making abortion completely legal or illegal. Rather, the largest segment falls in the middle, saying it should be legal but with restrictions. Nearly half of U.S. adults also consider abortion morally wrong.

This helps explain how the states have been able to pass a vast array of laws limiting when, where and how abortions can be performed. It also sheds light on how citizens can shift from electing a staunchly pro-choice president in Barack Obama to electing an avowed pro-life one in Donald Trump. For most Americans, the issue involves shades of gray, not black and white.

Americans' ambivalence on abortion is also seen in the nearly 50-50 division in their self-identification as pro-choice vs. pro-life. These views are not evenly disbursed nationally but reflect a blending of mostly pro-life Republicans and mostly pro-choice Democrats, groups that do anything but blend when it comes to abortion policy.

Historical data are available in Gallup Analytics.

SURVEY METHODS

Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted May 3-7, 2017, with a random sample of 1,011 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. For results based on the total sample of national adults, the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. All reported margins of sampling error include computed design effects for weighting.

Source: http://www.gallup.com/poll/211901/abortion-attitudes-stable-no-consensus-legality.aspx?g_source=Social+Issues&g_medium=newsfeed&g_campaign=tiles

AUSTRALASIA

488-43-14/POLL

Roy Morgan Image of Professions Survey 2017

Health professionals continue domination with Nurses most highly regarded again; followed by Doctors and Pharmacists

Health professionals have continued their domination of Australia’s most highly regarded professions with 94% of Australians (up 2% from 2016) rating Nurses ‘very high’ or ‘high’ for their ‘ethics and honesty’. Nurses have topped the annual survey for 23 years running since being included for the first time in 1994. (Roy Morgan)

June 07 2017

Health professionals are clustered near the top with Nurses followed by Doctors on 89% (up 3%), Pharmacists on 84% (down 2%) andDentists on 79% (up 4%). Only School Teachers on 81% (up 4%) and Engineers on 80% (up 2%) prevent a clean sweep at the top for health-related professionals.

Of all 30 professions surveyed in 2017 sixteen decreased in regards to ethics and honesty while twelve professions increased and only two professions were unchanged according to the Roy Morgan survey conducted in the last week of May with 648 Australians.

Image of Professions 2017

Source: These are the main findings of a Roy Morgan telephone survey conducted on the nights of May 22-24, 2017, with 648 Australian men and women aged 14 and over.

Nurses on top but Doctors, Pharmacists and Dentists all rated very highly

Nurses have been rated ‘very high’ or ‘high’ by 94% of Australians in 2017, up 2% from 2016. Nurses have been rated as Australia’s most trusted profession in every year they’ve been included in the survey and have rated at least 90% in each of the last seven years. No other profession has ever rated higher than 89%.

For the fifth straight year Doctors have finished second to their colleagues with 89% of Australians rating Doctors ‘very high’ or ‘high’ for their ethics and honesty, an improvement of 3% on 2016.

Pharmacists were the odd health-related profession out in 2017 with a slight decline to 84%, being the only negative movement for any of the surveyed health-related professions, down 2%.

However, that was still enough to leave Dentists ‘bringing up the rear’ of the four professions, rated ‘very high’ or ‘high’ by 79% of Australians – up 4% on 2016. It was 1989 when Dentists were last rated above any other health profession: Dentists 65% cf. Doctors62% (1989 result).

Source: Roy Morgan Image of Professions surveys of Australians 14+ between 1976 – 2017.

School Teachers preferred to University Lecturers for 37^th straight survey

School Teachers have once again topped University Lecturers for their ethics and honesty – a feat they have accomplished in every Image of Professions survey since first being conducted over 40 years ago in 1976.

A substantial majority of 81% of Australians rated School Teachers ‘very high’ or ‘high’ for their ethics and honesty – up 4% from 2016 and a new record high for the profession.

In contrast 66% of Australians rated University Lecturers ‘very high’ or ‘high’, down 2% from 2016. The gap of 15% between the two professions is considerably larger than their closest ever result in 1988 when only 2% separated them: School Teachers 55% cf.University Lecturers 53%.

Source: Roy Morgan Image of Professions surveys of Australians 14+ between 1976 – 2017.

Engineers rated far ahead of Business Executives and Real Estate Agents

Engineers have increased to a new record high for their ‘ethics and honesty’ – up 2% to 80% in 2017 which puts them fifth overall and ahead of other professions in business-related fields.

Directors of Public Companies on 25% (down 1%) and Business Executives on 18% (down 2%) are both mid-ranged in the overall result, but well ahead of Real Estate Agents who have equalled their record low rating of 7% (down 3%) and perennial cellar-dwellers Car Salesmen on 4% (unchanged).

Car Salesmen have been the lowest rated profession in every year the survey has been conducted since 1976.

Source: Roy Morgan Image of Professions surveys of Australians 14+ between 1976 – 2017.

Police hit record high in wake of increased terrorist incidents

The image of Police has never been better in Australia with a record high 76% of Australians now rating Police ‘very high’ or ‘high’ for ethics and honesty. The rating for police is up 4% from 2016 and up 21% since 1997 when only 55% of respondents rated Police highly or very highly.

Police are rated just ahead of those who sit in judgment of the people Police apprehend with High Court Judges on 74% (up 3%) andState Supreme Court Judges on 71% (up 1%). Both sets of justices are slightly below their record high rating of 75% which they both achieved in 2011.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, it is Lawyers who bring up the rear of the professions in the legal field with 35% of Australians rating Lawyers as ‘very high’ or ‘high’ for ethics and honesty – unchanged from a year ago, but well down from their record high rating of 44% in 1984.

Source: Roy Morgan Image of Professions surveys of Australians 14+ between 1976 – 2017.

Accountants, Bank Managers and Financial Planners streets ahead of Insurance Brokers and Stockbrokers

Despite a fall in their rating for ethics and honesty this year Accountants have once again retained their lead as the most admired financial-related profession with 50% (down 1%) of Australians rating Accountants ‘very high’ or ‘high’ for ethics and honesty.Accountants have now been the preferred financial-related profession for 26 years since 1991.

Bank Managers improved their standing by 3% this year with 33% of Australians now rating their ethics and honesty ‘very high’ or ‘high’. The improvement for Bank Managers came despite the recent Federal Budget levying a new tax on Australia’s largest banks which was announced only two weeks before this survey was conducted.

The ethics and honesty of Financial Planners has been remarkably consistent since being introduced to the survey for the first time in 2010 with 25% of Australians rating Financial Planners ‘very high’ or ‘high’ for their ethics and honesty, down 2% from 2016.

However two familiar professions continue to be on the nose with Australians – only 11% of Australians (down 3%) now rate Stockbrokers‘very high’ or ‘high’ for their ethics and honesty and even fewer, just 10%, rate Insurance Brokers ‘very high’ or ‘high’ for their ethics and honesty, down 1% from a year ago.

Source: Roy Morgan Image of Professions surveys of Australians 14+ between 1976 – 2017.

Regard for Public Servants outstrips respect for their Parliamentary bosses

Although views on Public Servants ethics and honesty fell this year those in the profession are rated clearly higher than their Parliamentary bosses with 37% of Australians rating the profession ‘very high’ or ‘high’ – down 2% on 2016.

Both Federal MPs and their State MP colleagues fell in 2017 – both professions retreated 1% to 16% and are now regarded below Union Leaders for the first time since 2013 when that year’s Federal Election resulted in the ejection of the second iteration of the Rudd Government.

Union Leaders improved their standing in 2017 with 17% of Australians now rating the profession ‘very high’ or ‘high’ for ethics and honesty an improvement of 4% on 2016.

Source: Roy Morgan Image of Professions surveys of Australians 14+ between 1976 – 2017.

Public Opinion Pollsters clearly on top of the media professions

The past year may have seen a substantial amount of conjecture about the purported accuracy of public opinion polling and the Australian populace has delivered their verdict (of a sort) – Public Opinion Pollsters are clearly more highly regarded by Australians than the media people who report the results of these polls.

Just over a third of Australians (34%) rate Public Opinion Pollsters as having ‘very high’ or ‘high’ ethics and honesty, an improvement of 2% on 2016 and equal to the rating Public Opinion Pollsters held the first time they were included on the survey in 1995.

However, those tasked with relaying the results of polls to the general public have not fared as well with only 20% of Australians (up 1%) rating Newspaper Journalists ‘very high’ or ‘high’ for ethics and honesty and 17% of Australians (down 1%) rating TV Reporters ‘very high’ or ‘high’.

However, these professions were themselves clearly ahead of Talk-back Radio Announcers who equalled their record low rating of 14% (down 5%) and Advertising People who also equaled their record low rating of only 5% (down 4%).

Source: Roy Morgan Image of Professions surveys of Australians 14+ between 1976 – 2017.

Ministers of Religion continue steady decline to new record low

When first introduced in 1996 Ministers of Religion were rated ‘very high’ or ‘high’ for ‘ethics and honesty’ by 59% of respondents – enough for sixth place overall.

In 2017 Ministers of Religion have hit a new record low rating of only 34% for ethics and honesty, down 1% from a year ago. The considerable scandals experienced this century have clearly had a significant impact on the standing of the profession in the wider community. Ministers of Religion have now plunged to new record lows in six out of the last nine years.

Source: Roy Morgan Image of Professions surveys of Australians 14+ between 1996 – 2017.

Michele Levine, Chief Executive Officer, Roy Morgan Research says long-term trends have continued in 2017:

“Roy Morgan’s annual Image of Professions survey for 2017 shows 12 professions increasing their ratings for ‘ethics and honesty’ compared to a year ago, while 16 professions decreased and 2 professions were unchanged.

“For the 23^rd survey in a row Nurses 94% (up 2% from 2016) have retained top spot ahead of several other medical professions including Doctors on a new record high of 89% (up 3%) and Pharmacists on 84% (down 2%).

“The recent improvements of the rating of Police – now at a record high 76% (up 4%), and up 11% over the past decade since 2007 – a larger long-term increase than any other profession may reflect the increasing importance of the profession in an age of heightened worries about terrorism.

“Views of Bank Managers also improved over the past year with 33% (up 3%) of Australians rating them ‘very high’ or ‘high’ for ‘ethics and honesty. The improvement for Bank Managers came despite the Government’s decision to impose a new tax on banks in this year’s Federal Budget delivered in early May.

“The biggest losers in 2017 were Talk-back Radio Announcers on 14% (down 5%) and at their equal record low rating first achieved in 2000, Stockbrokers on 11% (down 3%) and hitting a new record low and Advertising people on 5% (down 4%). Only Car Salesmen on 4% (unchanged) – a position they have held for over 30 years unchallenged as Australia’s least trusted profession – were lower.”

These are the main findings of a Roy Morgan telephone survey conducted on the nights of May 22-24, 2017, with 648 Australian men and women aged 14 and over.

Respondents were asked: “As I say different occupations, could you please say – from what you know or have heard - which rating best describes how you, yourself, would rate or score people in various occupations for honesty and ethical standards (Very High, High, Average, Low, Very Low)?”

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	*40%-60%*	*25% or 75%*	*10% or 90%*	*5% or 95%*
500	±4.5	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4

Source: http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/7244-roy-morgan-image-of-professions-may-2017-201706051543

488-43-15/POLL

Over 2.6 million Australians were unemployed or under-employed in May

Australia’s real unemployment for May was 9.8% (1.284 million Australians looking for work). In addition 1.338 million Australians were under-employed in May (10.2% of the workforce). This is a total of 2.622 million Australians (20% of the workforce) looking for work or looking for more work. (Roy Morgan)

June 09 2017

· In May the total Australian workforce was 13,074,000 (up 291,000 in 12 months) and employment grew to 11,790,000 (up 376,000);

· However the increase in employment was almost entirely driven by a large increase in part-time employment which rose 346,000 to 4,238,000 while full-time employment rose a modest 30,000 to 7,552,000;

· Real unemployment is at 9.8%, down 0.9% from a year ago but under-employment is up 2.8% to 10.2% over the same period. The rise in under-employment is a direct consequence of the increasing proportion of part-time employment at the expense of full-time jobs;

· The total of 2.622 million Australians unemployed or under-employed is the 20th straight month more than 2 million Australians have been looking for work or looking for more work, and only the fourth time this figure has exceeded 2.6 million Australians.

· The Roy Morgan real unemployment figures are substantially higher than the current ABS estimate for April 2017 (5.7%).

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source October 2005 – May 2017. Average monthly interviews 4,000.

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, says Australia’s 2.6 million unemployed and under-employed need policy reforms implemented now rather than in three years:

“The Australian economy is generating jobs – a total of 376,000 over the last year. However most of these jobs are part-time (346,000) rather than full-time (30,000) and this contributes to a growing problem of under-employment which has grown by 391,000 over the same time period.

“Unfortunately any increase to the minimum wage above inflation and the over award payments (weekend and public holiday penalty rates) means there is no incentive for employers of unskilled staff such as in retail and hospitality businesses to open for additional hours or take on more staff.

“For this reason last week’s Fair Work Commission’s decisions to increase the minimum wage by $22 per week (+3.3%) and partly defer cuts to Sunday penalty rates over three years instead of now have dealt a significant blow to the prospect of more jobs for Australia’s unemployed and under-employed.

“Australia’s 2.622 million unemployed and under-employed are looking for work today. The Federal Government’s need to create jobs and generate GDP growth will not happen without major industrial reforms – the current weakness in GDP growth (0.3% in March Quarter) and Roy Morgan May Business Confidence falling 2.4% to 113.8 is not good news.”

This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly face-to-face interviews of 535,118 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 – May 2017 and includes 3,866 face-to-face interviews in May 2017.

*The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or consultants who are looking for more work. (Unfortunately the ABS does not release this figure in their monthly unemployment survey results).

Roy Morgan Unemployed and ‘Under-employed’* Estimates

	Unemployed or ‘Under-employed’*		Unemployed		Unemployed looking for		‘Under-employed’*
	Unemployed or ‘Under-employed’*		Unemployed		Full-time	Part-time	‘Under-employed’*
2016
Jan-Mar 2016	2,496	19.1	1,362	10.4	639	723	1,134	8.7
Apr-Jun 2016	2,322	18.1	1,317	10.2	637	680	1,005	7.8
Jul-Sep 2016	2,296	17.8	1,266	9.8	574	692	1,030	8.0
Oct-Dec 2016	2,446	18.9	1,191	9.2	635	556	1,255	9.7
2017
Jan-Mar 2017	2,377	17.9	1,261	9.5	591	670	1,116	8.4
Months
April 2016	2,322	18.1	1,334	10.4	611	723	988	7.7
May 2016	2,316	18.1	1,369	10.7	661	708	947	7.4
June 2016	2,326	17.9	1,247	9.6	637	610	1,079	8.3
July 2016	2,536	19.5	1,365	10.5	645	720	1,171	9.0
August 2016	2,249	17.5	1,332	10.4	544	788	917	7.1
September 2016	2,103	16.2	1,101	8.5	532	569	1,002	7.7
October 2016	2,454	19.1	1,188	9.2	626	562	1,266	9.9
November 2016	2,299	17.6	1,199	9.2	629	570	1,100	8.4
December 2016	2,584	20.0	1,186	9.2	650	536	1,398	10.8
January 2017	2,402	17.9	1,295	9.7	634	661	1,107	8.2
February 2017	2,390	17.9	1,253	9.4	576	677	1,137	8.5
March 2017	2,340	17.7	1,236	9.3	563	673	1,104	8.4
April 2017	2,307	17.6	1,217	9.3	612	605	1,090	8.3
May 2017	2,622	20.0	1,284	9.8	659	625	1,338	10.2

*Workforce includes those employed and those looking for work – the unemployed.

The Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate is obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section by face-to-face interviews. A person is classified as unemployed if they are looking for work, no matter when.

The results are not seasonally adjusted and provide an accurate measure of monthly unemployment estimates in Australia.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are obtained by mostly telephone interviews. Households selected for the ABS Survey are interviewed each month for eight months, with one-eighth of the sample being replaced each month. The first interview is conducted face-to-face. Subsequent interviews are then conducted by telephone.

The ABS classifies a person as unemployed if, when surveyed, they have been actively looking for work in the four weeks up to the end of the reference week and if they were available for work in the reference week.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are also seasonally adjusted.

For these reasons the Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are different from the Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate. Gary Morgan's concerns regarding the ABS Unemployment estimate is clearly outlined in his letter to the Australian Financial Review, which was not published.

Margin of Error

Sample Size	% Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
5,000	±1.4	±1.2	±0.8	±0.6
10,000	±1.0	±0.9	±0.6	±0.4
20,000	±0.7	±0.6	±0.4	±0.3
50,000	±0.4	±0.4	±0.3	±0.2

Source: http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/7253-roy-morgan-australian-unemployment-may-2017-201706091431

MULTI-COUNTRY STUDIES

488-43-16/POLL

Number Of Potential Migrants Worldwide Tops 700 Million

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- After cooling off in the wake of the Great Recession, worldwide, people's desire to migrate permanently to another country showed signs of rebounding between 2013 and 2016. Gallup found 14% of the world's adults -- which translates to nearly 710 million people -- saying they would like to move to another country if they had the opportunity. This is up from 13% -- or about 630 million adults -- between 2010 and 2012. (Pew Research Center)

JUNE 8, 2017

Global Desire to Migrate Rebounds in Some Areas

Percentage of those who live in these regions who desire to migrate

	Desire to migrate,2010-2012	Desire to migrate,2013-2016	Change
	%	%	pct. pts.
Sub-Saharan Africa	30	31	+1
Europe (outside European Union)	21	27	+6*
Latin America and Caribbean	18	23	+5*
Middle East and North Africa	19	22	+3*
European Union	20	21	+1*
Commonwealth of Independent States	15	14	-1
Australia/New Zealand/Oceania	9	10	+1
Northern America	10	10	0
South Asia	8	8	0
East Asia	8	7	-1
Southeast Asia	7	7	0
Global	13	14	+1*
Latest estimate based on World Poll surveys in 156 countries and areas between 2013 and 2016; * = Significant change
GALLUP WORLD POLL

Gallup's latest findings on adults' desire to move to other countries are based on a rolling average of interviews with 586,806 adults in 156 countries between 2013 and 2016. The 156 countries represent 98% of the world's adult population. The analysis period overlaps the years of the European migrant crisis that began in 2015. The previous findingswere based on a rolling average of interviews with 521,182 adults in 154 countries between 2010 and 2012.

While still not back at the 16% Gallup measured worldwide between2007 and 2009, the desire to migrate has increased in a number of regions as global economic conditions have continued to slowly recover and as conflict, famine and disaster have driven people from their homes in some parts of the world. Desire increased the most in non-European Union countries in Europe, in Latin America and the Caribbean, and in the Middle East and North Africa.

Highest Desire to Migrate

Percentage of the total adult population that wants to migrate

	Desire to migrate,2010-2012	Desire to migrate,2013-2016
	%	%
Sierra Leone	51	62*
Haiti	53	56
Albania	36	56*
Liberia	53	54
Congo (Kinshasa)	37	50*
Dominican Republic	49	50
Honduras	41	48*
Armenia	40	47*
Syria	32	46*
El Salvador	34	46*
Ghana	40	45
Nigeria	41	43
Jamaica	43	40
Congo (Brazzaville)	38	39
Togo	41	39
Sudan	29	37
Guinea	33	36
Bosnia and Herzegovina	20	36*
Puerto Rico	N/A	35
Moldova	32	35
Senegal	31	34
Gabon	30	34
Macedonia	35	34
Kosovo	29	34
Uganda	37	33
Italy	21	32*
Cyprus	25	32*
Guatemala	30	31
Ivory Coast	N/A	30
Lesotho	25	30
Peru	32	30
* Significant change
GALLUP WORLD POLL

U.S. Still Top Desired Destination for Potential Migrants

Top Desired Destinations Worldwide

Among those who say they would like to move

	% Potential migrants naming this country	Estimated number of adults (in millions)

United States	21	147
Germany	6	39*
Canada	5	36
United Kingdom	5	35*
France	5	32
Australia	4	30
Saudi Arabia	3	25*
Spain	3	20
Italy	2	15
Switzerland	2	13
Japan	2	12
United Arab Emirates	2	12*
Singapore	1	10
South Africa	1	8
Sweden	1	8
Russia	1	7
New Zealand	1	7
China	1	7
Netherlands	1	6
Brazil	1	6
Turkey	1	5*
South Korea	1	5
* = Significant change
GALLUP WORLD POLL, 2013-2016

Bottom Line

Dato Tsabutashvili contributed to this article.

SURVEY METHODS

Source: http://www.gallup.com/poll/211883/number-potential-migrants-worldwide-tops-700-million.aspx?g_source=World&g_medium=newsfeed&g_campaign=tiles

488-43-17/POLL

Global Publics More Upbeat About the Economy

But many are pessimistic about children’s future

Nearly a decade after the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression, economic spirits are reviving. Many Europeans, Japanese and Americans feel better today about their economies than they did before the financial crisis. More broadly, in 11 of 18 countries from across the globe that were surveyed in both 2016 and 2017, publics feel more positive about their economy than they did a year ago. (Pew Research Center)

JUNE 8, 2017

The Dutch, Germans, Swedes and Indians see their national economies in the most positive light. While global publics are increasingly upbeat about economic conditions, the overall view of the economy is still in negative territory in many countries. Overall, a median of only 46% in the 32 nations surveyed this year say their current economy is doing well.

At the same time, many are concerned about the future: A median of just 41% believe that a child in their country today will grow up to be better off financially than their parents. The most pessimistic about prospects for the next generation are the French, Japanese and Greeks.

Across five large European economies, Japan, and the United States, public assessment of national economic conditions is now more positive than it was in 2007, immediately before the global financial crisis.

Nearly six-in-ten Americans (58%) believe the economic situation in the U.S. is good. The U.S. economy has experienced roughly 80 months of job growth and the unemployment rate was only 4.9% in 2016. In the spring of 2009, when the jobless rate was 9.3%, just 17% thought economic conditions were good. In 2007, before the economic downturn, 50% said conditions were favorable.

In France, Germany, Italy, Poland and the United Kingdom, a median of 51% now give their economy a positive grade. This comes in the wake of an average 1.7% growth in 2016 in the five European Union countries and an unemployment rate of 7.4%. The public’s view of the economy is up from a low of 15% across the five EU nations in 2013, when their economies grew at an annual average of only 0.6% and joblessness stood at 9.0%. In 2007, a median of 36% in those countries said their economic situation was good.

In Japan, 41% now voice the view that their economy is doing well. The Japanese economy grew by 0.8% in 2016, with unemployment at 3.1%. In 2012, despite economic growth at 1.7%, only 7% held the view that their economy was good – possibly because the unemployed accounted for 4.4% of the labor force. In 2007, before the financial crisis, 28% of Japanese said economic conditions were good.

These are among the key findings of a new Pew Research Center survey conducted among 34,788 respondents in 32 countries from Feb. 16 to April 28, 2017.

Advanced economies more upbeat than emerging markets, developing countries

The modest but sustained economic recoveries in Australia, Canada, Europe, Japan and the U.S. since the 2007-2008 financial crisis have finally buoyed public spirits about economic conditions in those countries. A median of 51% in the 17 advanced economies surveyed believes that their current economic situation is good, 45% think it’s bad. Strong upbeat sentiment in northern Europe in particular offsets quite downbeat views in southern Europe and South Korea.

Emerging market and developing economies have slowed in recent years, especially in key nations in Africa and Latin America, and public opinion in those societies reflects that slowdown. Only 45% in the 15 emerging and developing markets surveyed voice the view that current economic conditions in their nation are good, 54% believe they are bad. Positive views in India and the Philippines are offset by very negative sentiment in Venezuela and Brazil.

Emerging markets, developing countries guardedly optimistic for kids

While publics in emerging markets and developing countries are not that happy about their current economic condition, a median of 56% nevertheless believe that when those who are children today in their countries grow up they will be better off financially than their parents. Just 38% voice the view that they will be worse off. Indians (76%), Nigerians (72%) and Chileans (69%) are particularly optimistic about economic prospects for the next generation.

Publics in advanced economies are quite pessimistic about young people’s financial prospects, just 34% believe they will be better off than the current generation. Such despair is particularly strong in Greece, Japan, France, Australia, Canada, Spain and the UK, where roughly seven-in-ten people say today’s children will be worse off.

The recent rise in satisfaction with current economic conditions seems to have had an impact on optimism about the future in Poland in particular. The share of Poles who think the economy is doing well has gone up 26 percentage points since 2015, and the proportion that believes the future will be better for the country’s children has risen 14 points.

Economic sentiment improved

In most nations surveyed, public views of the economic situation in their country are up, whether measured from 2015 to 2017 or 2016 to 2017.

In Russia, the share of the population that says the economy is good has almost doubled, from 24% in 2015 to 46% in 2017. This improvement came despite the fact that the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)reports that the Russian economy actually contracted in 2016.

Over that same period there has been a 21-point improvement in the public’s assessment of economic conditions in Indonesia and a 20-point uptick in Ghana.

In just the past year, from 2016 to 2017, economic sentiment has improved by 25 points in the Netherlands and 15 points in Spain.

The greatest erosion in public contentment with the economy has been in Italy (down 18 points since 2016), where economic satisfaction is now back to roughly 2015 levels, and in Argentina (down 15 points since 2015).

Young people more upbeat than their elders about the future

In more than half of the countries surveyed, people ages 18 to 29 are more optimistic than those ages 50 and older about the next generation’s financial prospects. This is true in nations where people feel quite positive about their economy and in societies where people are very negative.

Swedes of all ages feel good about current economic conditions, but there is a generational gap in views of the future. Fully 63% of young Swedes believe the future is bright, but only 37% of older Swedes agree, a 26-point differential.

Argentines of all ages are negative about their economy. But more than half of young people are positive about the next generation’s financial prospects, while only about a third of older Argentines agree.

In many emerging economies, such as India, Turkey and Brazil, more than half of the public across generations share optimism about their children’s financial future.

Sentiment about current economy and children’s prospects not always linked

Perceptions of current economic conditions do not seem to be directly linked to expectations for the future in most nations.

Americans, Canadians and some Europeans feel relatively good about their economies today. Nevertheless, few are very optimistic about the financial future for their children. While 87% of Dutch people say their economy is good, only 35% believe today’s children will be better off than their parents, a 52-point difference. There is a similar 50-point gap in German economic sentiment and a 40-point divide in Swedish views.

At the same time, only 15% of Brazilians believe their country’s economic situation is good, while 56% say the country’s children will do better than their parents, a 41-point differential. In Nigeria there is also a downbeat view of the current economy: Just 41% believe it is doing well. Yet this is coupled with an optimistic expectation for the future: 72% of Nigerians say the nation’s kids will be better off, a 31-point difference.

Those ideologically aligned with the party in power more positive than opposition

In many countries surveyed, those who are ideologically aligned with the party in power are more positive about their country’s economic situation than those on the other end of the spectrum.

This is particularly true in Israel, where 73% of those on the right say the Israeli economic situation is good, compared with only 40% on the left. There is a similar 33-percentage-point gap between the economic views of Hungarians on the right (60%) and those on the left (28%). And a 28-point right-left divide exists in Poland, a 27-point division in Spain and a 26-point disparity in the UK.

Meanwhile, people on the left (49%) are far more upbeat about the economy than those on the right (11%) in Venezuela. And in Sweden, where more than eight-in-ten people in the public overall are positive about the economic situation, there is still a significant 17-point left-right divide in public opinion.

In many of the countries where those on the right are more upbeat about the national economy, right-of-center governments are in power. And where those on the left are more optimistic about the economy, left-of-center governments were in power at the time of the survey.

Correction: Throughout this report, 2015 data from Brazil have been corrected. The changes due to this adjustment are very minor and do not materially change the analysis of the report.

Source: http://www.pewglobal.org/2017/06/05/global-publics-more-upbeat-about-the-economy/

CYBER WORLD

488-43-18/POLL

The Internet of Things Connectivity Binge: What Are the Implications?

Despite wide concern about cyberattacks, outages and privacy violations, most experts believe the Internet of Things will continue to expand successfully the next few years, tying machines to machines and linking people to valuable resources, services and opportunities. (Pew Research Center)

JUNE 6, 2017

Connection begets connection. In 1999, 18 years ago, when just 4% of the world’s population was online, Kevin Ashton coined the term Internet of Things, Neil Gershenfeld of MIT Media Lab wrote the book “When Things Start to Think,” and Neil Gross wrote in BusinessWeek: “In the next century, planet Earth will don an electronic skin. It will use the internet as a scaffold to support and transmit its sensations. This skin is already being stitched together. It consists of millions of embedded electronic measuring devices: thermostats, pressure gauges, pollution detectors, cameras, microphones, glucose sensors, EKGs, electroencephalographs. These will probe and monitor cities and endangered species, the atmosphere, our ships, highways and fleets of trucks, our conversations, our bodies – even our dreams.”

He was right. Today, 49% of the world’s population is connected online and an estimated8.4 billion connected things are in use worldwide.

The stickiness and value of a connected life will be far too strong for a significant number of people to have the will or means to disconnect.
ANONYMOUS RESPONDENT

The Internet of Things (IoT) is in full flower. The expanding collection of connected things goes mostly unnoticed by the public – sensors, actuators and other items completing tasks behind the scenes in day-to-day operations of businesses and government, most of them abetted by machine-to-machine “computiction” – that is, artificial-intelligence-enhanced communication. The most public items in the burgeoning IoT are cars, voice-activated assistants, appliances and other home systems, physician-prescribed or recommended health-monitoring devices, road sensors, public-safety and security devices,smart meters and personal fitness and health trackers for people and animals – dogs, cats,horses, cows and more. And then there are emerging IoT products that show how the urge to create connectivity extends to such prosaic items as toothbrushes, dental floss, hairbrushes, pillows, egg trays, wine bottle sleeves, baby monitors and changing tables, silverware, umbrellas, all manner of toys and sporting goods and remote-controlled pet food dispensers, to name a few.

The very connectedness of the IoT leaves it open to security and safety vulnerabilities. Every connected thing is susceptible to attack or misuse. In September 2016 at DEF CON, one of the world’s largest security conferences, 47 vulnerabilities affecting 23 IoT-enabled items (door locks, wheelchairs, thermostats and more) from 21 manufacturers were disclosed. Soon after, there was a massive distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attack on Oct. 21, 2016, against Dyn, an internet performance management company. The attack was accomplished when tens of millions of IoT-connected devices like printers, DVRs, cable set-top boxes, webcams and baby monitors were used to launch the DDoS and block Dyn’s ability to connect internet users to the web addresses they hoped to access, such as Twitter, Amazon, PayPal, Spotify, Netflix, HBO, The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times. A simple software program called Mirai was used to create the botnet that initiated the attack.

After the Dyn attack, a report in The New York Times called the IoT a “weapon of mass disruption.” While that assault amounted to nothing more than a short-lived slowdown of a large portion of the internet, it showed how vulnerable connected devices are to hacking and exploitation. In recent weeks, a ransomware attack named WannaCry affected computers in 150 countries, and its creators demanded payments from those whose computers were compromised before releasing their files. Experts pointed out how dramatically this attack highlighted the vulnerabilities of the IoT.

Researchers have been showing how easy it is to hack cars, voting machines and power plants. They have demonstrated ransomware exploits against home thermostats and exposed vulnerabilities in implanted heart pacemakers. In one paper, “IoT Goes Nuclear,”analysts showed how a flaw in the design of smart lightbulbs could be used for a “bricking attack” that kills all of a city’s traffic lights. Within the past year Bryan Johnson (Kernal),Elon Musk (Neuralink) and Mark Zuckerberg (Facebook’s Building 8) have announced initiatives to create an effective consumer-grade brain-computer interface thus, of course,hacking a person’s brain could also be a future security issue.

All of this has prompted concern among internet security experts, including Bruce Schneier, who delivered a fiery speech at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development’s Digital Economy Ministerial Meeting in Cancun, Mexico, in June 2016. He predicted that unless technology-based businesses and governments address these problems, there might be a flight from connectivity – that is, people could start retreating offline as risks mount. “My guess is we are reaching the high-water mark of computerization and connectivity,” he said, “and in a few years we are going to be deciding what to connect and what to disconnect and become more realistic about what can work. We are creating a society by which a totalitarian government can control everything. Right now it’s more power to the powerful. And we are living in a computerized world where attacks are easier to create than defenses against them. This is coming faster than we think. We need to address it now. People up to now have been able to code the world as they see fit. That has to change. We have to make moral, ethical and political decisions about how these things should work and then put that into our code. Politicians and technologists still talk past each other. This has to change.”

Thus, the question: Could security vulnerabilities that become evident as the IoT rolls out prompt people, businesses and government to avoid or withdraw from certain online connectivity options? In summer 2016, Pew Research Center and Elon University’s Imagining the Internet Center conducted a large canvassing of technologists, scholars, practitioners, strategic thinkers and other leaders, asking them to react to this framing of the issue:

As billions more everyday objects are connected in the Internet of Things, they are sending and receiving data that enhances local, national and global systems as well as individuals’ lives. But such connectedness also creates exploitable vulnerabilities. As automobiles, medical devices, smart TVs, manufacturing equipment and other tools and infrastructure are networked, is it likely that attacks, hacks or ransomware concerns in the next decade will cause significant numbers of people to decide to disconnect, or will the trend toward greater connectivity of objects and people continue unabated?

Some 1,201 responded to this nonscientific canvassing: 15% of these particular respondents said significant numbers would disconnect and 85% chose the option that most people will move more deeply into connected life. (See “About this canvassing of experts” for further details about the limits of this sample.)

Participants were asked to explain their answers and were offered the following prompts to consider:

§ What is the most likely kind of physical or human damage that will occur when things are networked?

§ How might governments and technologists respond to make things more secure and safe?

§ Is it possible to network physical objects in such a way that they will generally remain safe for the vast majority most of the time?

Several broad assertions and assumptions underpinned many respondents’ answers:

Connection is inevitable: Most of these experts argued that humans crave connectivity, and they will seek more of it due to its convenience and out of necessity because it will simply be embedded in more and more things. One thoughtful framing of this idea came from Dan McGarry, media director at the Vanuatu Daily Post. “Connection is inevitable,” he wrote. “It’s what [Terry] Pratchett, [Ian] Stewart and [Jack] Cohen call extelligence. So much of human experience is based outside of the human being these days, you can’t be a functioning adult and remain unconnected.” An anonymous respondent put it this way: “The stickiness and value of a connected life will be far too strong for a significant number of people to have the will or means to disconnect.”

Further, these experts note there is commercial incentive to add this feature to as many gadgets and aspects of life as possible. A sharp description of this dynamic came from Ian O’Byrne, assistant professor of literacy education at the College of Charleston, who said, “More people will become connected because device manufacturers will make it far easier and acceptable to purchase and use these devices. In the same fashion that we added electricity to every device possible with advances in technology, manufacturers will ‘add the internet’ to all devices in the attempt to make them better … but also possibly sell more product. In short, more people and devices will be connected.”

Connectivity has many exploitable flaws: Many respondents, including those arguing the case that more connectivity will unfold, outlined downsides to hyper-connectivity. They maintained that defects and vulnerabilities are a natural part of quickly evolving networks, and software and hardware and security responses are always a step behind. Many believe that ongoing attacks are inevitable in all networked digital systems, and there will be large-scale problems in coordinating various elements of the IoT to get them to work together. While these experts expect that living an IoT-dependent life will be scary at times and often frustrating, most do not expect this will be enough to deter most people from diving deeper into connectivity.

For instance, an anonymous professor of information and history at a state university explained, “People can get used to anything, and – just as with terrorism – the inevitable occasional damage from deliberate or inadvertent failures in highly networked systems will become routine. Occasional terrorism using Internet of Things connections is very likely, shutting down infrastructure, hospitals, businesses, etc. Hackers will always find vulnerabilities in highly networked systems, and technical fixes will not change that.” An anonymous professor at MIT observed, “We will live in a world of ambivalent participation.”

This new connectivity jeopardizes humans and physical infrastructure, not just communication: A recurring refrain in these experts’ answers is that the IoT poses significant new problems because messing with IoT-linked devices can cause real-world damage. Schneier has described it this way: “With the advent of the Internet of Things and cyberphysical systems in general, we’ve given the internet hands and feet: the ability to directly affect the physical world. What used to be attacks against data and information have become attacks against flesh, steel and concrete.”

Barry Chudakov, founder and principal at Sertain Research and StreamFuzion Corp., wrote, “We are witnessing the advent of what the brilliant scholar and media theoristDerrick de Kerckhove (years ago) called ‘connected intelligence’ – but on a scale unimaginable before the 21st century. … De Kerckhove called it a ‘change of being,’ which captures the breadth and depth of what is happening daily as our physical and digital objects intertwine. So not only will the trend toward greater connectivity of people and objects continue, it will continue to change boundaries and dynamics of all sorts – personal, social, moral, political. … The IoT reality represents both huge opportunity and huge vulnerability. They go hand in hand. We cannot be proactive until we educate ourselves and continue to educate others about what is required to secure IoT and what secure IoT practices entail.”

Many participants in this canvassing wrote detailed elaborations explaining their positions. Some chose to have their names connected to their answers; others opted to respond anonymously. These findings do not represent all possible points of view, but they do reveal a wide range of striking observations. Respondents collectively articulated seven major themes that are introduced and explained below and expanded upon in sections that begin later in this report.

The following section presents a brief overview of the most evident themes extracted from the written responses, including a small selection of representative quotes supporting each point. Some responses are lightly edited for style or due to length.

Theme 1: People crave connection and convenience, and a tech-linked world serves both goals well

We have a deep need and desire to connect. … I see no evidence for a reversal of that trend.
PETER MORVILLE

The vast majority of expert respondents to this research study, as well as to a previous study on attitudes about the future of the Internet of Things by Pew Research Center and Imagining the Internet, agree that the IoT will continue apace, expanding vastly in size and influence over the next decade. They say businesses expect to reap large dividends from the advancement of the IoT and that people are naturally driven to connect to other people, information and services. Further, they argue that society reaps benefits from connected infrastructure and objects – from transportation, communications and business and industrial systems to individual products and services. Additionally, as modern life becomes more complicated, these respondents argue that people count on convenience to conquer chaos and they enjoy experimenting with magical new tools. Their desire for new gadgetry often outweighs any perceived risks.

It’s only human to connect, and there are many advantages. It’s magical, even addictive

Robert Bell, co-founder of the Intelligent Community Forum, wrote, “Because connected life offers so many opportunities in terms of cost savings, entertainment, news and public participation, people will keep moving into it.”

The magical behaviors that the new devices will provide will be too strong for people to resist.
DAVID WUERTELE

David Clark, senior research scientist at MIT and Internet Hall of Fame member, replied, “Unless we have a disaster that triggers a major shift in usage, the convenience and benefits of connectivity will continue to attract users. Evidence suggests that people value convenience today over possible future negative outcomes.”

Jim Warren, longtime technology entrepreneur and activist, replied, “From the beginning of any kind of ‘connectivity’ between humans (both biological and corporate 😉 – from primitive Man to the present – we have almost always favored and pursued increased connectivity. It is the essence of society, culture, productivity, improved living and lifestyle alternatives (et al.) and will continue. Probably the largest deterrents to the speed and pervasiveness of its development will be largely, perhaps mostly, how much it costs its users, both financially and functionally.”

Mark Lemley, a professor at Stanford Law School, commented, “There will definitely be hacks and other problems, just as there are with credit cards and financial information online today. But the advantages of connectivity are just too great for people to forgo it. We may see greater local control over when connected devices are enabled, allowing people to turn connectivity off at will.”

Peter Morville, president of Semantic Studios, said, “We have a deep need and desire to connect. Everything in the history of communication technology suggests we will take advantage of every opportunity to connect more richly and deeply. I see no evidence for a reversal of that trend.”

Bart Knijnenburg, an assistant professor in human-centered computing at Clemson University, responded, “The immediate and concrete benefits of connectivity, however small, will outweigh the uncertain future threats, so people will choose connectivity over security. Insurance firms may capitalize on insuring against digital threats to physical devices. The only thing that may cause people to disconnect is a widespread terrorist attack against the digital infrastructure. Even if such an attack is inconsequential for people’s TVs and fridges, it may change the narrative enough that people will disconnect.”

Some respondents pointed out that people are attracted to shiny new tech tools, services, platforms and systems even at times when this could become fatal attraction. There are people of all ages who find that connectivity “is addictive,” one anonymous respondentand others argued. Richard J. Perry, a respondent who did not share additional identifying details, commented, “Great damage is possible and governments and vendors will strive to improve security but will fail. Internet insecurity will be the rule, not the exception. But we are addicted and will not surrender this.”

David Wuertele, a software engineer at Tesla Motors, replied, “The magical behaviors that the new devices will provide will be too strong for people to resist. Even though many of these IoT devices have no real need to be connected to the cloud, and even though connecting them to the cloud presents a real risk to people, there is not enough of a force to ‘clean up’ the implementations. The desire by people for these magic devices is so strong that they will sign away their own personal data as well as their families’ (and sometimes their friends’) data to get the goodies.”

An anonymous respondent observed, “People are influenced by gee-whiz gizmos, frequently at the expense of safety.”

As life increases in complexity, convenience is the default setting for most people

Many respondents pointed out that people generally opt for what appears to be the best route to efficiency and expediency as they adopt technology. Paul Jones, clinical professor and director at the University of North Carolina, optimistically predicted, “The Law of Least Effort applies to the Internet of Things. Short of massive social and political changes, we will become more connected, more networked and happier that we are.”

There are few examples in human history of people making rational decisions about privacy or security.
NATHANIEL BORENSTEIN

An anonymous respondent who is concerned about the downsides of connectivity responded, “People will trade their safety for convenience. They always have. They always will.” And Nathaniel Borenstein, chief scientist at Mimecast, said, “There are few examples in human history of people making rational decisions about privacy or security.”

Matt Bates, a programmer and concept artist at Jambeeno Ltd., commented, “I expect the following are and will always be true with regard to internet connectivity: Convenience> privacy. Convenience > statistically infrequent health consequences. Convenience > statistically infrequent financial problems. For a minority, one or more of the above will be reversed and they will stand out as oddities in an increasingly connected world (note, e.g., code and security expert Dan Geer, part of the CIA apparatus, who doesn’t use a cellphone). … I think most networked physical objects are ‘safe for the vast majority most of the time.’ It’s what happens with the aggregation of networked objects that is most concerning, and then it will usually be most deleterious to a minority of the population. There’s probably no way to get around this short of not networking things. Convenience will out. Sadly.”

Sunil Paul, entrepreneur, investor and activist at Spring Ventures, observed, “Convenience and ‘magic’ will overwhelm concerns. The history of technology is clear on this front – ATMs, e-commerce, credit cards, the list is endless.”

Julie Gomoll, CEO of Julie Gomoll Inc., wrote, “Hacks and ransomware won’t matter. We have those now, and very few people disconnect as a result. There will be lots of junk things – ‘We need a networked thing!’ will be the new ‘We need an app!’ There will be new kinds of hacks and attacks, and we’ll figure out how to stop them. We’ll discover unintended consequences, attribute them to growing pains. And we will never, ever disconnect.”

The always-on younger generation can’t imagine being anything but connected

A number of respondents said they expect the younger generation, accustomed from the start to trust in technology with few doubts, is likely to adopt the IoT, warts and all. Jan Schaffer, executive director of J-Lab: The Institute for Interactive Journalism, said youth will stay connected because they are too invested in the IoT to leave it. “Young people will continue to deeply connect until they have assets and identities that they care about and don’t want to put at risk,” she wrote.

To today’s 10-year-old the idea of a watch that can’t take basic health information is like a 20-year-old trying to understand what the hell a cassette tape is.
ANONYMOUS RESPONDENT

Lisa Heinz, doctoral student at Ohio University, observed, “Young people are perpetually connected to each other, so much so they might not know how to exist without the internet that enables that connection. As our homes become a part of that connection in even the tiniest of automated ways, we will no longer care how it works, just that it works as expected. Thus, a mass migration away from a connected society is unlikely.”

Some respondents said most younger people don’t know how to live any other way. Ananonymous respondent commented, “The individuals who will be using this technology are the teens of today. It will be second-nature for them to use and interact daily across many devices and modalities.” Another anonymous respondent replied, “Generations now take the internet for granted. They can’t cope without it.”

Another anonymous respondent wrote, “If today’s adults don’t get more connected, the next generation will. To today’s 10-year-old the idea of a watch that can’t take basic health information is like a 20-year-old trying to understand what the hell a cassette tape is.”

Source: http://www.pewinternet.org/2017/06/06/the-internet-of-things-connectivity-binge-what-are-the-implications/