BUSINESS & POLITICS IN THE WORLD

 

GLOBAL OPINION REPORT NO. 685

 

 

Week: April 05 –April 11, 2021

 

Presentation: April 19, 2021

 

 

Contents

 

685-43-23/Commentary: Nearly Half (46%) Of UAE Residents Plan To Engage In Charity During Ramadan This Year 3

SUMMARY OF POLLS. 6

ASIA   6

Six Out Of Ten (57%) Indians Said They Are Now Ready To Take The Shot Compared To A Third (33%) Who Said This In January. 6

YouGov Dining & QSR Rankings 2021 Singapore. 7

MENA   9

Nearly Half (46%) Of UAE Residents Plan To Engage In Charity During Ramadan This Year 9

AFRICA.. 11

Two-Thirds (62%) Of Citizens Say They Feel Equally Attached To Their Nigerian Identity And Their Ethnic Identity. 11

More Than 6 in 10 Nigerians Still Have Challenge In Access Water 16

WEST EUROPE.. 22

3% Of Voters Plan To Vote For The Alba Party On The Regional List At The Holyrood Elections. 22

Three Quarters Of English People Support Government’s Rapid Covid-19 Testing Plan. 26

Danes Are Particularly Worried About The Consequences Of The Lockdown On The State Of The Economy. 28

More Than 56% Of French People Still Plan To Go On Vacation In The Country, And 31% Abroad. 31

29 Percent Of Germans Heard The Radio Plays "Drei " In Their Childhood. 32

NORTH AMERICA.. 33

Democrats Are More Likely Than Republicans To Say They Use Social Media Overall (77% And 68%, Respectively) 33

Confronting 2016 And 2020 Polling Limitations. 39

The Asian Population In The US Grew 81% Between 2000 And 2019. 47

Eight-In-Ten (81%) Agree That ‘Natural Resource Development Is Good For Canada. 52

Over Half (53%) Of Canadian Households $200 Or Less Away From Insolvency, Yet Still Optimistic About Financial Future. 52

42% Of Brazilians Believe That The Country's Interests Must Come Before Politics. 54

AUSTRALIA.. 54

1.64 Million Australians Unemployed In March (Down 291,000 On February) For An Unemployment Rate Of 11.4% - The Lowest For A Year 54

83% Of Australians Have Either Already Been Vaccinated (7%), Say They Are Willing To Be Vaccinated. 59

Subway Tops Yougov Australia’s Dining & Qsr Rankings 2021. 64

MULTICOUNTRY STUDIES. 66

Almost One In Two People Worldwide (45%) Say That Covid-19 Is One Of The Main Problems Facing Their Country In March 2021. 66

Despite All Consequences Caused By The Pandemic During 2020, 79% Of The Global Population Perceived Themselves As Healthy. 69

Citizens Weigh In On The Health Of Their Healthcare Systems In Mena. 72

 

INTRODUCTORY NOTE

 

This weekly report consists of twenty two surveys. The report includes three multi-country studies from different states across the globe.

 

685-43-23/Commentary: Nearly Half (46%) Of UAE Residents Plan To Engage In Charity During Ramadan This Year

Nearly half of UAE residents who look forward to Ramadan this year (46%) intend to celebrate the festival by giving to charity. Among all the respondents, Arab expats and married respondents with children were most likely to choose this as their preferred way of celebrating the festival amidst the pandemic (at 56% and 53%, respectively).

Almost as many as those who intend to make monetary contributions plan to donate food/ essentials to the needy (43%), although the government has now urged the public to pay zakat and/or any donations digitally.

The survey was conducted before the guidelines came into force but it is worth bearing in mind what people would have liked to do during Ramadan in the absence of restrictions.

As per the new guidelines around Ramadan, home visits and family gatherings are banned in the UAE, with families encouraged to gather online instead. Keeping in mind the current situation, almost a third (31%) intend to celebrate the festival online with their loved ones.

Although many residents look forward to celebrating Iftar at home with their immediate family (44%), a quarter said they were planning to celebrate Iftars with extended family (25%), a plan that may have to wait for Ramadan 2022 given current restrictions.

Slightly over a third (36%) would like to offer prayers at the mosque, which is currently allowed with some restraints.

Females as compared to their male counterparts were more keen to gather for Iftar (51% vs 41%). Men on the other hand were more likely to offer prayers at the mosque (40% vs 27%).

Even though there are fewer restrictions on shops and restaurants staying open, few plan to go shopping or eat at food courts or restaurants during Ramadan (21% and 16% respectively). Travelling to one’s hometown (12%) is not commonly considered by UAE residents this year.

In 2020, as Ramadan coincided with the spread of the pandemic, people stayed inside and spent a lot of time online. Fortunately, this year the market has opened up, giving an opportunity to business owners to revive sales.

When asked how their spending pattern is likely to change this Ramadan compared to the pre-pandemic years, UAE residents claimed it is unlikely to change across most of the listed categories. This is especially true for spending on data plan/ internet, where 52% of the respondents said they will spend the same amount of money as they were before the pandemic hit the country.

Similarly, residents’ spending on food & beverage (51%) and medicines (50%) is also likely to remain the same as before. Household appliances is a category where consumers are evenly split, with 38% saying they will spend the same amount of money on these products but 35% intend to spend less on this category this year.  

Purchase of fashion and electronic products/ gadgets is likely to take a hit- with 43% and 39% respondents saying they are likely to spend less on these categories this Ramadan.

The only area that is likely to see an uptick in spending is charity as two in five UAE residents (40%) plan to spend more than usual on donations this year.

(YouGov MENA)

April 6, 2021

Source: https://mena.yougov.com/en/news/2021/04/06/nearly-half-uae-residents-plan-engage-charity-duri/

685-43-24/Country Profile:

 

 

 

 

SUMMARY OF POLLS

ASIA

685-43-01/Poll

Six Out Of Ten (57%) Indians Said They Are Now Ready To Take The Shot Compared To A Third (33%) Who Said This In January

As India expands its vaccination drive to ensure more people are inoculated, YouGov’s latest research reveals that intent to take the Covid-19 vaccination has improved since January when we first questioned respondents about this. Six out of ten (57%) respondents said they are now ready to take the shot compared to a third (33%) who said this in January.

Hesitancy around taking a shot also seems to be on the decline- as now only 20% say they will wait for a few months before taking a jab as compared to 41% who said this earlier.

The willingness to take the jab could be because of the public’s confidence in the government’s handling of the vaccine rollouts up until now. More than eight in ten (83%) respondents think favourably about the way the government has been carrying out the vaccination drive so far. Only 13% felt it has been tackled badly.

At present, only one in sixteen urban Indians (6%) said they do not want to be vaccinated at all, with adults between 18-29 years being most likely to say this as compared to the rest.

Some recent media reports have labelled young adults as super spreaders, highlighting how many more of them are contracting the virus in the second phase of the pandemic. Despite the growing cases among this cohort, reluctance to take the jab is most common within this age group as compared to the rest.

YouGov’s data indicates when it comes to their place in the vaccine priority system, one in five (19%) young adults between 18-29 years agree they should be placed lower on the priority list and must get their shot later than others.

Although 43% of them believe they should be higher up in the priority list, it is still lower than the proportion of respondents belonging to age groups 30-39 years and 40-49 years who hold the same view about their current place in the vaccine priority system (51% and 50% respectively).

The government’s recent decision to expand the eligibility criteria to include everyone above the age of 45 brings good news for these respondents who are now placed higher up on the priority list.

Out of the ones who feel content with their place in the system, a higher proportion belongs to older people aged 50 and above.

Looking at the employment status, respondents with part-time (58%) or full-time jobs (51%) are more likely to believe they should be higher on the priority list than the ones who are not employed (42%).

Although India is yet to allow people under the age of 45 to get vaccinated, some health experts and state governments suggested vaccinating younger people between 18-45 years who are more vulnerable to infections due to travel for work or leisure. When asked about this proposition, more than three-fourth (77%) of urban Indians agreed to the idea of inoculating young people. However, agreement was lower among 18-29-year-olds (at 71%) as compared to their older counterparts: 30-39-year-olds (79%) and 40-49 years (81%).

(YouGov India)

April 6, 2021

Source: https://in.yougov.com/en-hi/news/2021/04/06/increasing-number-urban-indians-are-ready-take-cov/

685-43-02/Poll

YouGov Dining & QSR Rankings 2021 Singapore

COVID has made 2020 one of the most challenging period for restaurants. Due to various dining restrictions and safety concern, consumers tend to eat out less frequently. To maintain businesses, many restaurants have taken measures like shifting their business to home delivery, or offering discounts for take-away customers.

In view of this, YouGov has examined the public perception of restaurants’ performance in the past 12 months and ranked the best-performing dining and quick-service restaurant (QSR) brands with the launch of YouGov APAC Dining & QSR Rankings 2021!

The rankings data is drawn from our daily brand tracking tool BrandIndex, which measures the public’s perception of thousands of brands every day across 40 sectors.

Check out the below rankings to see which dining and QSR brands have made the top 10 and top 10 improvers list in Singapore!

Best Brands 2021 Singapore: Dining & QSR

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/r/71/Dining&QSR%20Rankings2021-TopRanked-lpt6.jpg

Most Improved Best Brands 2021 Singapore: Dining & QSR

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/r/80/Dining&QSR%20Rankings2021-TopImprover-lpt6.jpg

(YouGov Singapore)

April 7, 2021

Source: https://sg.yougov.com/en-sg/news/2021/04/07/yougov-dining-qsr-rankings-2021-singapore/

 

MENA

685-43-03/Poll

Nearly Half (46%) Of UAE Residents Plan To Engage In Charity During Ramadan This Year

Nearly half of UAE residents who look forward to Ramadan this year (46%) intend to celebrate the festival by giving to charity. Among all the respondents, Arab expats and married respondents with children were most likely to choose this as their preferred way of celebrating the festival amidst the pandemic (at 56% and 53%, respectively).

Almost as many as those who intend to make monetary contributions plan to donate food/ essentials to the needy (43%), although the government has now urged the public to pay zakat and/or any donations digitally.

The survey was conducted before the guidelines came into force but it is worth bearing in mind what people would have liked to do during Ramadan in the absence of restrictions.

As per the new guidelines around Ramadan, home visits and family gatherings are banned in the UAE, with families encouraged to gather online instead. Keeping in mind the current situation, almost a third (31%) intend to celebrate the festival online with their loved ones.

Although many residents look forward to celebrating Iftar at home with their immediate family (44%), a quarter said they were planning to celebrate Iftars with extended family (25%), a plan that may have to wait for Ramadan 2022 given current restrictions.

Slightly over a third (36%) would like to offer prayers at the mosque, which is currently allowed with some restraints.

Females as compared to their male counterparts were more keen to gather for Iftar (51% vs 41%). Men on the other hand were more likely to offer prayers at the mosque (40% vs 27%).

Even though there are fewer restrictions on shops and restaurants staying open, few plan to go shopping or eat at food courts or restaurants during Ramadan (21% and 16% respectively). Travelling to one’s hometown (12%) is not commonly considered by UAE residents this year.

In 2020, as Ramadan coincided with the spread of the pandemic, people stayed inside and spent a lot of time online. Fortunately, this year the market has opened up, giving an opportunity to business owners to revive sales.

When asked how their spending pattern is likely to change this Ramadan compared to the pre-pandemic years, UAE residents claimed it is unlikely to change across most of the listed categories. This is especially true for spending on data plan/ internet, where 52% of the respondents said they will spend the same amount of money as they were before the pandemic hit the country.

Similarly, residents’ spending on food & beverage (51%) and medicines (50%) is also likely to remain the same as before. Household appliances is a category where consumers are evenly split, with 38% saying they will spend the same amount of money on these products but 35% intend to spend less on this category this year.  

Purchase of fashion and electronic products/ gadgets is likely to take a hit- with 43% and 39% respondents saying they are likely to spend less on these categories this Ramadan.

The only area that is likely to see an uptick in spending is charity as two in five UAE residents (40%) plan to spend more than usual on donations this year.

(YouGov MENA)

April 6, 2021

Source: https://mena.yougov.com/en/news/2021/04/06/nearly-half-uae-residents-plan-engage-charity-duri/

 

AFRICA

685-43-04/Poll

Two-Thirds (62%) Of Citizens Say They Feel Equally Attached To Their Nigerian Identity And Their Ethnic Identity

https://noi-polls.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/tolerance-infographics.jpg

A majority of Nigerians value diverse communities, identify equally with their ethnicity and nationality, and believe there is more that unites Nigerians as one people than divides them, new Afrobarometer findings show.

Over the years, Nigeria has witnessed repeated ethnic and religious clashes. But the survey shows that nine in 10 citizens are tolerant of people from different religions, ethnic groups, nationalities, and political parties.

However, general trust in fellow citizens is very low; most Nigerians say one “must be very careful” in dealing with others.

Key findings

  • Almost two-thirds (62%) of citizens say they feel equally attached to their Nigerian identity and their ethnic identity (Figure 1).
  • One in five (22%) identify more with their ethnic group than their nationality, while somewhat fewer (16%) identify more their nationality.
  • By a ratio of 2-to-1, citizens think there is more that unites all Nigerians as a people (62%) than divides them (36%) (Figure 2).
  • Almost three-quarters (72%) of citizens say that diverse communities are stronger than homogeneous ones (25%) (Figure 3).
  • About nine out of 10 Nigerians say they would like it or “would not care” if their neighbours were from a different ethnic group (90%), belonged to a different religion (86%), supported a different political party (91%), or were immigrants (88%) (Figure 4).
    •  Only one in 10 (9%) would welcome homosexuals as their neighbours.
  • Only 7% of Nigerians think that “most people can be trusted” (Figure 5). Nine in 10 (92%) say you “must be very careful when dealing with people.”

Afrobarometer surveys

Afrobarometer is a pan-African, nonpartisan survey research network that provides reliable data on African experiences and evaluations of democracy, governance, and quality of life. Seven rounds of surveys were completed in up to 38 countries between 1999 and 2018. Round 8 surveys in 2019/2021 are planned in at least 35 countries. Afrobarometer conducts face-to-face interviews in the language of the respondent’s choice with nationally representative samples.

The Afrobarometer team in Nigeria, led by NOIPolls, interviewed 1,599 adult citizens of Nigeria in January-February 2020. A sample of this size yields country-level results with a margin of error of +/-2.5 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. Previous surveys were conducted in Nigeria in 1999, 2002, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2012, 2014, and 2017.

Charts

Figure 1: National vs. ethnic identity | Nigeria | 2020

https://noi-polls.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/aa1-1024x548.jpg

Respondents were asked: Let us suppose that you had to choose between being a Nigerian and being a [member of respondent’s ethnic group]. Which of the following statements best expresses your feelings?

Figure 2: More that unites or more that divides? | Nigeria | 2020

https://noi-polls.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/aa2-1-1024x672.jpg

Respondents were asked: Nigerians are very diverse. They come from different religions, ethnic groups, political parties, and economic and social backgrounds. Overall, would you say that there is more that unites all Nigerians as one people, or more that divides them?

Figure 3: Does diversity make communities stronger? | Nigeria | 2020

https://noi-polls.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/aa3-1024x429.jpg

Respondents were asked: Which of the following statements is closest to your view?

Statement 1: Communities are stronger when they are made up of people from different ethnic groups, races, or religions.

Statement 2: Communities are stronger when they are made up of people who are similar to each other, that is, people from the same ethnic group, race, or religion.

(% who “agree” or “agree very strongly” with each statement)

Figure 4: Tolerance for others | Nigeria | 2020

https://noi-polls.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/aa4-1024x618.jpg

Respondents were asked: For each of the following types of people, please tell me whether you would like having people from this group as neighbours, dislike it, or not care.

Figure 5: Can most people be trusted? | Nigeria | 2020

https://noi-polls.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/aa5-1024x573.jpg

Respondents were asked: Generally speaking, would you say that most people can be trusted or that you must be very careful in dealing with people?

(NOI Polls)

April 8, 2021

Source: https://noi-polls.com/tolerance-for-diversity-poll-nigerians-show-high-tolerance-for-diversity-but-low-trust-in-fellow-citizens/

685-43-05/Poll

More Than 6 in 10 Nigerians Still Have Challenge In Access Water

 https://noi-polls.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Access-to-Water-Poll-Report-infographic-01-ok-01-724x1024.jpg

In commemoration of World Water Day, which holds on the 22nd of March annually, NOIPolls conducted a new public opinion poll on access to water. The poll explored the accessibility of water to Nigerians, the treatment of drinking water and challenges faced in accessing water.

The poll revealed that 62 percent of Nigerian households especially Nigerians from the North-Central zone reported that access to water (both for drinking and household use) is still a major challenge to them. It is important to state that it is the responsibility of the Federal, State and Local Government to supply water to Nigerians. For instance, the Local Government is responsible for rural water supply, the State Government is responsibly for urban water supply while the Federal Government is in charge of water resource management.

More finding from the poll revealed that borehole (57 percent) and well water (25 percent) are the primary sources of water for Nigerians for domestic use. According to the WHO/UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme (JMP), this source of water supply is mainly classified as an improved source of water supply.[1] Also, a significant proportion of Nigerians (56 percent) identified sachet water, popularly known as ‘Pure water’ as the major source of drinking water in their homes. While this source of drinking water might be affordable and easily accessible to Nigerians, its hygiene and quality has been questioned by the National Agency for Food and Drug Administration and Control (NAFDAC) especially due to the process of packaging. This has led to the closure of several sachet water factories by NAFDAC in the past.[2]

Subsequently, the poll further revealed that 73 percent of Nigerians do not treat their water in any form before drinking regardless of the source. However, 27 percent who treat their water before drinking it mostly adopt boiling (54 percent) the water as a method of purification. According to the World Bank, accessing clean water is a major factor in reducing child mortality. In Nigeria, about 60, 000 children under the age of five die each year from diseases caused by poor levels of access to water, sanitation and hygiene.

It is interesting to note that 69 percent of Nigerians reported that they use more water since the outbreak of COVID-19 in Nigeria. While 15 percent stated that they use more water because more household member stay at home at the same time, 6 percent mentioned that they use more water specifically to wash their hands in line with COVID-19 preventive guidelines.

With regards to ongoing water projects, a larger proportion of Nigerians (86 percent) disclosed that there are no water projects currently being implemented in their various communities. Therefore, in order to meet the 6th Goal of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), which is to ensure access to water and sanitation for all, government at all levels needs to urgently work towards the provision of improved quality of water and water sources to the citizenry. For instance, the three tiers of government, stakeholders and international support agencies should synergize their plans and strategies to ensure that all Nigerians have access to clean potable water in their homes by reviving all water boards across all states in the country and resuscitating dormant water plants. These are the key highlights from the Access To Water Poll conducted in the week commencing March, 15th 2021.

Survey Background

The World Water Day is a day set aside by the United Nations to commemorate the importance of freshwater to inhabitants of the world and to also identify challenges experienced by people around the world regarding access to water. The Day is held on 22nd March every year since 1993 when it was first observed. One of the importance of the world water day is to raise awareness of the 2.2 billion people all around the world living without water with the view of finding viable ways of providing water to these inhabitants of the world. Additionally, the core focus of the World Water Day is to focus on to the support of the achievement of sustainable development Goal 6: “Water and sanitation for all by 2030”. It is worthy of note also to state that 1 in 3 people in the world live without drinking water and by 2050, it is estimated by the UN that 5.7 billion people could be living in areas where water is scarce for at least one month a year[3].

The theme for this year 2021 is “valuing water” in which the global body seek to underscore the value of water to everyone. It can be boldly stated that the value of water is about much more than its price-water has enormous and complex value for our households, food, culture, health, education, economics and the integrity of our natural environment. We can further add that if we risk this value of water, we risk mismanaging this finite, irreplaceable resource giving for our general and ultimate use. To make the Day memorable, people and organizations mark World Water Day every year by taking action to tackle the water crisis affecting people in various ways than one. The celebration aims to create awareness of water and its resources which are crucial for the survival of living beings on earth and without which life on Earth becomes difficult and thereby making the Earth Inhabitable[4].

There are various classes if water in the world which is defined mostly by its usage and importance to people around the world. The list is inexhaustible and as it keeps growing depending on the newly discovered usage water can be put in to and the mode of discovery of the type of water. They include and not limited to: tap water which is piped water, mineral water gotten from mineral spring and full of minerals like sulfur, magnesium and calcium. Sparkling water sometimes referred to as carbonated or soda water, Distilled water which is gotten from boiled water and the steam is collected and condensed into a liquid, purified water which is usually tap or underground water which has been treated to remove harmful substances like bacteria, fungi and parasites. Others include: flavored or infused water, alkaline water, well water etc.[5]. Against this backdrop, NOIPolls conducted a survey to gauge the pulse of Nigerians regarding access to water and the various challenges people are facing regarding water.

Survey findings

When asked of the main source of water for household use, 57 percent of Nigerians disclosed that their primary source of water for household use is borehole. The South-East zone had more respondents who reported that their main source of water for household use is borehole. While 25 percent of the respondents mentioned well water especially those residing in the North-Central zone (34 percent), 14 percent said that they use tap water for household use and this is common with Nigerians residing in the North-West (18 percent).

https://noi-polls.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/a1-1024x441.png

Trend analysis revealed an 6 percent increase in the proportion of Nigerians who rely on borehole as their main source of water for household use when current finding is compared to result obtained in 2020.

https://noi-polls.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/a2-1024x346.png

Subsequently, according to a report from United Nations (UN) Water Global Analysis, an estimated 100 million Nigerians still lack basic sanitation facilities and 63 million do not have access to improved source of drinking water.[6] In line with the above report, this poll result revealed that a major proportion of Nigerians (56 percent) rely on Sachet water popularly known as pure water as the primary source of drinking water. The South-West zone (68 percent) represented the larger proportion of Nigerians who asserted to this.

https://noi-polls.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/a3-1024x475.png

It is interesting to note that 73 of the respondents do not treat their water before drinking (except for those whose only source of drinking water is sachet water). However, 27 percent of respondents stated that they treat their water before drinking.

https://noi-polls.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/a4-1024x349.png

While water has an enormous and complex value for our households, culture, health, education, economics and integrity of our natural environment, more than two billion people live in countries experiencing high water stress and Nigeria accounts for one of such countries despite being blessed with surplus water resources.[7]

Given the above, 62 percent of Nigerian households reported that they have challenge in access water both for drinking and household use and the North-Central zone (71 percent) had more respondents who mentioned this. On the contrary, 38 percent of the respondent indicated that they do not have challenge in accessing water.

https://noi-polls.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/a5-1024x342.png

Trend analysis reveals a significant 23 percent increase in the proportion of Nigerians who affirmed having chanlenge in accessing water in their community when current finding is compared the result obtained in 2020.

https://noi-polls.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/a6-1024x428.png

With the rising pollution of water resources and demand for water due to increasing population, it is imperative that water is proved to every community is Nigeria. In line with this, is unpleasant to note that only 14 percent of Nigerians disclosed that they are ongoing water projects in their various communities while the vast majority (86 percent) stated otherwise.

https://noi-polls.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/a7-1024x312.png

The devastating effects of the COVID-19 pandemic reminds every one of the importance of having access to water, sanitation and hygiene facilities yet many people are without them.[8] In line with this, majority of Nigerians (69 percent) indicated that they use more water since the outbreak of COVID-19. This assertion cut across gender, geographical locations and age-groups. However, 31 percent of respondents stated that they did not use more water since the outbreak.

Nigerians who admitted that they used more water since the outbreak of COVID-19 in the country were further probed and the top three reason cited are health conditions (31 percent), increased washing (19 percent) and frequent showers/bath (17 percent). Other reasons include increased usage because more people stay at home (17 percent) and constant washing of hands (6 percent) amongst other reasons highlighted.

https://noi-polls.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/a8-1024x349.png

Nigerians who admitted that they used more water since the outbreak of COVID-19 in the country were further probed and the top three reason cited are health conditions (31 percent), increased washing (19 percent) and frequent showers/bath (17 percent). Other reasons include increased usage because more people stay at home (17 percent) and constant washing of hands (6 percent) amongst other reasons highlighted.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the poll results have clearly revealed that a larger proportion of Nigerians rely on sachet water (56 percent) popularly known as pure water as their primary source of drinking water and borehole water (57 percent) as their main source of water for household use. This implies that access to water is still a challenge to most Nigerians. Therefore, the right of every Nigerian to have sufficient access to water for personal, domestic use and maintaining public health cannot be overemphasized. The inability to access clean water leads to water related disease such as typhoid, cholera etc. which in turn has a negative impact on the society at large. Finally, it is great important that three tiers government and other stakeholders ensure that water is made available to Nigerians as 62 percent reported that access to water (both for drinking and household use) is a challenge to their communities.

(NOI Polls)

April 08, 2021

Source: https://noi-polls.com/access-to-water-poll-more-than-6-in-10-nigerians-still-have-challenge-in-access-water/

 

WEST EUROPE

685-43-06/Poll

3% Of Voters Plan To Vote For The Alba Party On The Regional List At The Holyrood Elections

Ipsos MORI’s Scottish Political Monitor, run in partnership with STV News, finds support for the SNP on the constituency vote remains at very high levels ahead of the May 2021 Scottish Parliament elections. However, the party’s support on the regional list vote has fallen by nine percentage points since mid-February. In contrast, support for the Scottish Green Party on the list vote has increased since mid-February, by four percentage points. Just three per cent of voters said they would cast their list vote for Alex Salmond’s Alba Party.

Scottish Parliament voting intention

The SNP retains a strong lead in voting intention for both constituency and list votes in next May’s Scottish Parliament elections. The Scottish Conservatives remain in second place on both votes, with Scottish Labour behind them in third. Support for the Scottish Green Party on the list vote is up by four percentage points to 12%.

Headline Scottish Parliament voting intention figures for the constituency vote are:

  • SNP: 53% (+1 compared with 15-21 February)
  • Scottish Conservatives: 20% (-3)
  • Scottish Labour: 18% (+3)
  • Scottish Liberal Democrats: 6% (+1)
  • Scottish Green Party: 2% (-1)
  • Other: 1% (-1)

Headline Scottish Parliament voting intention figures for the regional vote are:

  • SNP: 38% (-9 compared with 15-21 February)
  • Scottish Conservatives: 21% (-1)
  • Scottish Labour: 18% (+4)
  • Scottish Green Party: 12% (+4)
  • Scottish Liberal Democrats: 6% (unchanged)
  • The Alba Party: 3%
  • Other: 2% (-1)

Seven in ten (72%) of SNP constituency voters say they will vote ‘both votes SNP’ by casting their regional list vote for the party as well. The remaining 28% are most likely to say they will cast their list vote for the Scottish Green Party (18% of SNP constituency voters say this), with a small minority saying they will vote for Scottish Labour (4%) or the Alba Party (4%) on the regional list. 

Around a third (32%) say they might change their mind about which party they’ll cast their list vote for.  

Top issues for voters

  • Independence is seen as the top issue helping voters decide which party they’ll vote for, with 49% mentioning it (note these are spontaneous, top-of-mind responses, not prompted). This is a five percentage point rise since mid-February, when 44% mentioned independence as a very important issue.
  • Independence is followed by education (mentioned by 28% of voters), the NHS (27%), managing the economy (16%) and coronavirus (15%). 

Top issues for voters slide

Scottish independence

  • Support for independence is at the same level as in mid-February, with Yes retaining a narrow lead. Among those likely to vote in an independence referendum, 52% say they would vote Yes while 48% would vote No

Independence support over time

  • Around one in ten (11%) of those who would be likely to vote in a referendum say they may change their mind. Yes supporters are more likely than No supporters to say they may change their minds (14% and 9% respectively). 

Trust in the parties

  • The Scottish National Party remains far more trusted by the Scottish public than either the Scottish Conservative Party or the Scottish Labour Party to deal effectively with a wide range of issues facing Scotland.
  • However, Scots’ trust in the SNP to stand up for Scotland’s interests, tackle inequality and manage education and schools in Scotland has fallen slightly since November 2020 – by 5, 4 and 4 percentage points respectively. 70% now say they trust the SNP a great deal or fair amount to stand up for Scotland’s interests, while 61% trust the party to deal effectively with tackling inequality and 55% trust it when it comes to managing education and schools.

Trust in the SNP

  • In contrast, public trust in Scottish Labour has jumped across a range of issues. 42% now say that they trust the party a great deal or quite a lot to tackle inequality in Scotland, a rise of 12 percentage points since November 2020. Similarly, more now trust the party to deal effectively with responding to the coronavirus crisis (up 12 points to 46%), managing education and schools (up 11 points to 51%) and managing the NHS (up 10 points to 52%).

Party leaders

  • Nicola Sturgeon remains the highest rated party leader among the Scottish public. 62% say they are satisfied with the way she is doing her job as First Minister, while 33% are dissatisfied. Almost half of Scots (48%) agree she is more honest than most politicians, compared with 33% who say the same of Anas Sarwar and 16% who agree this applies to Douglas Ross.

Satisfaction with Scottish Party Leaders

  • The next highest rated party leader is Labour leader Anas Sarwar: 46% say they are satisfied with him, while 20% are dissatisfied and a third (34%) don’t know. The Conservatives’ Douglas Ross fares less well, with a quarter (25%) saying they are satisfied with him, while 48% say they are dissatisfied and 27% don’t know. 
  • The Alba Party’s Alex Salmond is rated lower than Boris Johnson by Scottish voters. Just 9% say they are satisfied with Salmond, while 27% say the same of Johnson. 64% say they are dissatisfied with Salmond, and an identical proportion say the same of Johnson.

Emily Gray, Managing Director of Ipsos MORI Scotland, commented: 

Our latest poll results suggest the SNP are on course to win a majority of seats at Holyrood in May. Independence remains the top issue for Scotland’s voters and an independence ‘supermajority’ at Holyrood looks within the realms of possibility. However, our poll indicates that this may come from an uplift in support for the Scottish Greens on the regional vote rather than for the Alba Party. The Alba Party’s main impact to date may have been to remind pro-independence voters of how to use their regional vote tactically.

(Ipsos MORI)

7 April 2021

Source: https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/snp-retains-strong-lead-independence-dominates-voters-concerns

685-43-07/Poll

Three Quarters Of English People Support Government’s Rapid Covid-19 Testing Plan

As the country starts opening back up after lockdown, the British government will now offer two at-home rapid coronavirus tests to every adult in England from today, with the aim to help stop the spread of coronavirus in its tracks.

New YouGov polling reveals that the policy is widely supported in England, with just under three quarters of the English public (73%) in favour. Labour voters are particularly likely to support the policy, at 81%, although so too do 73% of Conservative voters.

However, far fewer believe that providing access to two rapid coronavirus tests a week will actually be effective in suppressing the spread of COVID-19 in England, with just 10% thinking it will be very effective and 40% thinking it will be fairly effective.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/inlineimage/2021-04-08/england_rapid_testing-01.png

A majority of adults in England say they’ll be likely to take two rapid tests a week

Just over half (54%) of adults in England say that they’d be likely to take two rapid coronavirus tests a week, with 37% saying they’d be unlikely to do so. Results suggested similar levels of uptake across the age categories, and showed that women are slightly more likely to take the tests than men (58% to 50%).

Despite a majority of the English public saying they’d be likely to take two rapid tests a week, just 23% think that English adults in general will be likely to take two tests a week. With almost two thirds of the public (65%) believing that English adults will be unlikely to take two rapid coronavirus tests a week, it’s perhaps unsurprising that many are sceptical that the policy will have much of an impact on preventing the spread of coronavirus in England.

The gap between public levels of support and how effective people think these tests will be can at least in part be explained by the public’s pessimistic outlook on whether other people will be likely to take the test. Alternatively, it could be that people are overstating the likelihood that they themselves will end up taking the tests – a previous YouGov study showed that while Britons near-universally claimed to be following COVID rules, the numbers didn’t square up with reported compliance among those in their local area.

(YouGov UK)

April 08, 2021

Source: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/04/08/three-quarters-english-people-support-governments-

685-43-08/Poll

Danes Are Particularly Worried About The Consequences Of The Lockdown On The State Of The Economy

By initiating a Danish tracking study from February 2020, we can now see what keeps Danes up at night and how this change over the months and years.

As another month went by, the Danes’ worries in March are very similar to the worries in February. The COVID-19 related worries are still high, but the worries are approximately the same in March as in February (+0.2%). However, there is a small increase in worries related to healthcare (+0.9%), which amongst other things are related to mental issues as well as general health. As the country has been in a lockdown for several months now, and only starting to open a little in March, there is a small increase in worries related to the state of the economy (+0.8%). The Danes are particularly worried about the consequences of the lockdown on the state of the economy.

 

The Biggest Worries chart refers to an individual’s perception on the largest/most top-of-mind challenge Denmark is dealing with today.

 

The Total Worries chart encompasses the biggest worries and the respondents’ other worries combined.  

(Ipsos Denmark)

6 April 2021

Source: https://www.ipsos.com/en-dk/what-worries-denmark-march-2021

685-43-09/Poll

More Than 56% Of French People Still Plan To Go On Vacation In The Country, And 31% Abroad

The health situation is having an impact on French travel intentions: at the start of 2021, nearly 2 in 10 French people plan not to travel this year. More than 56% of French people still plan to go on vacation in the country, and 31% abroad.

Note, 1 in 2 French people consider health risks as the main obstacle to travel.

Among people who intend to travel by road, air, rail or sea transport, CSP + are over-represented. There are also more inhabitants of large cities, and in particular those in the Paris region.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/r/66/visuel%20premier%20trasnports.png

Regarding modes of transport, the personal vehicle is by far the preferred mode of transport of the French - more than 6 in 10 French people (65%) prefer this mode of transport. In second place are low cost airlines (32%), followed by train (24%), rental vehicles (19%) and local public transport (16%).

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/r/66/transports%20pr%C3%A9f%C3%A9r%C3%A9s%20francais.PNG

(YouGov France)

April 9, 2021

Source: https://fr.yougov.com/news/2021/04/09/les-francais-et-le-voyage-quels-sont-leurs-intenti/

685-43-10/Poll

29 Percent Of Germans Heard The Radio Plays "Drei " In Their Childhood

Podcasts are currently attracting great interest, and not just since the beginning of the corona pandemic. But what about radio plays, in which stories are told with distributed speaking roles, noises and music? After all, two out of five Germans (39 percent) listen to radio plays in their free time, 6 percent of them often. The 25 to 44 year olds in particular listen to radio plays (48-49 percent).

Two out of five listen to radio plays in their spare time

THREE OUT OF TEN HEARD “DIE DREI ???” IN THEIR CHILDHOOD

One of the most popular radio plays are "Die Drei ???", in which three young detectives solve criminal cases. 29 percent of Germans state that they heard this in their childhood, 6 percent of them still hear them today. 10 percent of 18- to 24-year-olds currently hear the stories about Justus Jonas, Peter Shaw and Bob Andrews . The age comparison also shows that 35 to 44-year-olds currently hear the radio play most often (17 percent), regardless of whether they did so in their childhood.

22 percent of all German respondents do not know "Die Drei ???". This is what respondents aged 55 and over say this most often (35 percent).

29 percent have "Die Drei ???" in their childhood.  belongs

(YouGov Germany)

April 9, 2021

Source: https://yougov.de/news/2021/04/09/29-prozent-der-deutschen-haben-ihrer-kindheit-die-/

 

NORTH AMERICA

685-43-11/Poll

Democrats Are More Likely Than Republicans To Say They Use Social Media Overall (77% And 68%, Respectively)

Democrats are more likely than Republicans to say they use social media overall (77% and 68%, respectively), according to a new Pew Research Center survey of U.S. adults conducted Jan. 25-Feb. 8, 2021. There are also notable differences in the shares of Democrats and Republicans who use particular platforms.

Democrats more likely than Republicans to use many platforms, including Instagram and Twitter, but similar shares say they use Facebook

A majority of Americans on both sides of the political aisle say they use Facebook and YouTube. Roughly seven-in-ten Democrats (72%) and Republicans (69%) – including independents who lean toward each party – say they ever use Facebook. And 85% of Democrats report using YouTube, compared with a slightly smaller share of Republicans (79%).

Still, for several other sites and apps measured in this survey, there are large gaps in use by political party. For example, about half of Democrats (49%) report using Instagram, 19 percentage points more than the share of Republicans who say the same (30%). Democrats are also about 10 points or more likely than Republicans to say they ever use Twitter, WhatsApp, LinkedIn or Reddit.

How we did this

These patterns have mostly been consistent across recent surveys. For example, use of Instagram, Twitter, WhatsApp, LinkedIn and Reddit was more common among Democrats than Republicans in surveys conducted by the Center in 2019 and 2018. However, while similar shares of Democrats and Republicans now report using Facebook, that wasn’t the case in 2018, when Democrats were more likely to do so (74% vs. 63%).

While overall social media use is fairly widespread in the U.S. today, Americans in both political parties have negative views about social media companies’ powerinfluence and policies, previous Center surveys have shown. Social media sites have also become a hotbed for contentious debates and harassment.

Nevertheless, other Center surveys show that these sites hold appeal for some Americans as a way to get political news and show their support for causes. And some social media users have changed their views about political or social issues because of something they saw on social media in the past year. Also, majorities in both parties say that social media is at least somewhat effective as a way to influence policy decisions or get elected officials to pay attention to an issue.

Among adults under 50, large partisan gaps in use of Instagram, Twitter

As has been the case across prior Center research on this topic, age is highly correlated with social media use: American adults under 50 are more likely than their older counterparts to say they use these sites overall. At the same time, younger generations tend to be more Democratic compared with older ones. But age differences in social media use and party affiliation do not fully explain why Democrats are more likely than Republicans to use some platforms. In fact, even among younger Americans, Democrats are more likely than their Republican counterparts to say they use seven of the 11 sites asked about in the new survey.

This is particularly true for Instagram: About two-thirds of 18- to 49-year-old Democrats (68%) say they use the platform, compared with 45% of Republicans in the same age group, a 23 percentage point gap. Among adults under 50, Democrats are 17 points more likely than Republicans to report using Twitter (43% vs. 26%).

Democrats ages 18 to 49 are again more likely than Republicans in the same age group to report using WhatsApp, LinkedIn or Reddit. They are also more likely than their GOP counterparts to say they use TikTok or YouTube, though by smaller margins.

Among adults 50 and older, Democrats are more likely than Republicans to use Instagram (28% vs. 15%), WhatsApp (23% vs. 11%), Twitter (18% vs. 9%) or Snapchat (10% vs. 5%). But there are no partisan differences in older adults’ use of other platforms, including LinkedIn, Reddit, TikTok, Pinterest, YouTube, Facebook and Nextdoor.

Among White adults, social media use also differs by party

Apart from partisan differences in social media use within different age groups, there are also noteworthy partisan differences among White adults. (There were not enough Black, Hispanic or Asian respondents in the sample to analyze findings for each group by party.)

White Democrats are more likely than White Republicans to say they use Instagram, Twitter

White Democrats are 18 percentage points more likely than White Republicans to say they ever use Instagram or Twitter. They are also about 10 points or more likely to say they ever use LinkedIn, Reddit or WhatsApp. While the differences are not as large, White Democrats are more likely than White Republicans to say they use Nextdoor and YouTube, too.

While there are partisan differences overall and within each age group for Snapchat use, this gap does not appear when looking at White Republicans and Democrats. In addition, similar shares of both White Democrats and Republicans use TikTok, Facebook and Pinterest.

(PEW)

APRIL 7, 2021

Source: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/04/07/partisan-differences-in-social-media-use-show-up-for-some-platforms-but-not-facebook/

685-43-12/Poll

Confronting 2016 And 2020 Polling Limitations

The 2016 and 2020 elections raised questions about the state of public opinion polling. Some of the criticism was premature or overheated, considering that polling ultimately got key contours of the 2020 election correct (e.g., the Electoral College and national popular vote winner; Democrats taking control of the Senate). But the consistency with which most poll results differed from those election outcomes is undeniable. Looking at final estimates of the outcome of the 2020 U.S. presidential race, 93% of national polls overstated the Democratic candidate’s support among voters, while nearly as many (88%) did so in 2016.1

Reliance on weighting to represent Republicans has increased

A forthcoming report from the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) will offer a comprehensive, industry-wide look at the performance of preelection polls in 2020. But individual polling organizations are also working to understand why polls have underestimated GOP support and what adjustments may be in order. 

Pew Research Center is among the organizations examining its survey processes. The Center does not predict election results, nor does it apply the likely voter modeling needed to facilitate such predictions. Instead our focus is public opinion broadly defined, among nonvoters and voters alike and mostly on topics other than elections. Even so, presidential elections and how polls fare in covering them can be informative. As an analysis discussed, if recent election polling problems stem from flawed likely voter models, then non-election polls may be fine. If, however, the problem is fewer Republicans (or certain types of Republicans) participating in surveys, that could have implications for the field more broadly. 

This report summarizes new research into the data quality of Pew Research Center’s U.S. polling. It builds on prior studies that have benchmarked the Center’s data against authoritative estimates for nonelectoral topics like smoking rates, employment rates or health care coverage. As context, the Center conducts surveys using its online panel, the American Trends Panel (ATP). The ATP is recruited offline via random national sampling of residential addresses. Each survey is statistically adjusted to match national estimates for political party identification and registered voter status in addition to demographics and other benchmarks.2 The analysis in this report probes whether the ATP is in any way underrepresenting Republicans, either by recruiting too few into the panel or by losing Republicans at a higher rate. Among the key findings:

Adults joining the ATP in recent years are less Republican than those joining in earlier years. The raw, unweighted share of new ATP recruits identifying as Republican or leaning Republican was 45% in 2015, 40% in the 2018 and 38% in the 2020. This trend could reflect real-world change in participation (i.e., Republicans are increasingly resistant to polling) or real-world change in party affiliation (i.e., that there is a decline in the share of the public identifying as Republican), but it might also reflect methodological changes over time in how the ATP is recruited. Switching from telephone-based recruitment to address-based recruitment in 2018 may have been a factor. Regardless of the cause(s), more weighting correction was needed in 2020 than 2014 (when the panel was created) to make sure that Republicans and Democrats were represented proportional to their estimated share of the population.3

Donald Trump voters were somewhat more likely than others to leave the panel (stop taking surveys) since 2016, though this is explained by their demographics. The overall retention rate of panelists on the ATP is quite high, as 78% of respondents in 2016 were still taking surveys in 2020. But a higher share of 2016 Trump voters (22%) than Hillary Clinton or third-party voters (19%) stopped participating in the ATP during the subsequent four years. The demographic make-up of 2016 Trump voters basically explains this difference. In analysis controlling for voters’ age, race and education level, presidential vote preference does not help predict whether later they decided to leave the panel.

People living in the country’s most and least pro-Trump areas were somewhat less likely than others to join the panel in 2020. Researchers cannot know for sure whether someone is a Republican or Democrat based simply on their address, but election results in their voting precinct provide some insight. Analysis of addresses sampled for panel recruitment in 2020 found that households in the country’s most pro- and most anti-Trump areas were somewhat less likely to join the ATP than households in more politically balanced areas. The share of sampled households joining the ATP was 9% in the country’s most pro-Trump precincts, 8% in the country’s most anti-Trump precincts, and 11% in the remainder of the country. While these differences are not large, they are statistically significant.

Taken together, these findings suggest that achieving proper representation of Republicans is more difficult than it used to be. Survey participation has long been linked to individuals’ levels of education and social trust. Now that the GOP is doing better attracting voters with lower levels of education and, according to some analysts, doing better than in the past attracting low trust adults, Republican participation in surveys is waning, increasing reliance on weighting as a corrective. 

One silver lining is that these effects do not appear to be particularly large, at least at present on the ATP. The differences between Republicans’ and Democrats’ rates of ATP participation tend to be a percentage point or two, only marginally significant in statistical testing. It seems possible for pollsters to close the gap – to increase Republicans’ participation to be more on par with Democrats – by modifying the way surveys are conducted. Based on this research, Pew Research Center is implementing a number of new strategies to improve the representation of its survey panel. 

  • Retiring overrepresented panelists. Researchers identified a set of panelists who are demographically overrepresented on the ATP and who, because of their demographic characteristics, contributed to the overstatement of Democratic support in the 2016 and 2020 elections. Later in spring 2021, the Center is retiring a subset of these panelists, removing them from the panel (about 2,500 panelists out of about 13,500 total will be retired). More details about the retirement process can be found in Appendix B.  
  • Calibrating the political balance of the ATP using a relatively high response rate survey offering mail and online response. Effective January 2021, each ATP survey is being weighted to the partisan distribution from the Center’s National Public Opinion Reference Survey (NPORS), which is a new annual survey using address-based sampling and offering mail or online response. The inaugural NPORS in 2020 had a 29% response rate and over 4,000 completions, most of which were by mail.4
  • Testing an offline response mode. Part of the challenge with achieving robust representation of certain groups (e.g., from older, rural conservatives) on the ATP is that panelists must take surveys online. While the Center provides tablets and data plans to those without home internet, not everyone wants to be online. This spring the Center is fielding an experiment to determine whether it may be viable to allow panelists to respond over the phone by calling in to a toll-free number and taking a recorded survey (known as in-bound interactive voice response). Respondents receive $10 for completing the call-in survey. Those preferring to answer online can still do so.
  • Empaneling adults who prefer mail to online surveys. Prior Center work has found that people who respond to an initial survey by mail (instead of online) are very difficult to recruit to the ATP, which is all done online. While such adults are hard to empanel, their inclusion would help with representation of older, less wealthy and less educated Americans. In early 2021 the Center fielded a special recruitment of adults who responded to a Center survey by mail in 2020. The recruitment used priority mailing and a $10 pre-incentive to motivate joining. The recruitment yielded several hundred new panelists.
  • Developing new recruitment materials. Researchers are retooling the ATP recruitment materials with an eye toward using more accessible language and more compelling arguments for why people should join. Starting in 2021, the Center is sending sampled households a color, trifold brochure about the ATP in addition to the normal cover letter and $2 pre-incentive. The Center is also creating a short video explaining the ATP and why those who have been selected to participate should join. 

One question raised by this multifaceted strategy is whether it might overcorrect for the initial challenge and result in an overrepresentation of Republicans. While that is a possibility, we feel that the risks from too little action are greater. The Center’s analysis pointed to two issues: partisan differences in willingness to join the ATP and in likelihood of dropping out of the panel. In turn, the panel weighting was needing to do an inordinate amount of work to compensate for differences between the panel and the U.S. adult population. The action plan described above speaks to both issues, but only with an eye toward truing things up, not blindly going beyond. Several of the steps are exploratory, determining if and how a design change might improve the panel. Depending on the testing results, such steps (e.g., offering inbound IVR as a supplemental mode) may or may not ultimately be implemented on the ATP. Moreover, steps such as exploring an offline response mode or modifying recruitment materials are expected to improve representation among several harder to reach segments of society, not simply supporters of one candidate. 

A final question is whether such actions are necessary. Indeed, a recent Center analysis found that errors in election estimates of the magnitude seen in the 2020 election have very minor consequences for attitudinal, mass opinion estimates (e.g., views on a government guarantee of health care or perceptions of the impact of immigrants on the country). That simulation-based analysis, while helpful for scoping the scale of the issue, does not speak to the erosion of trust in polling and certainly doesn’t negate pollsters’ obligation to make their surveys as accurate as possible. Even if the steps outlined above yield relatively small effects, we expect that they will improve the data quality in Center surveys. 

Testing for partisan differences in survey panel recruitment

The first step in selecting adults for Center surveys is drawing a random, national sample of residential addresses. We mail these addresses and ask a randomly selected adult to join our survey panel. One way that a partisan imbalance could emerge is if Republicans are less likely than Democrats to agree to join, or vice versa. Determining whether this is happening is difficult because the ideal data do not exist. Our surveys sample from all U.S. adults, and there is no database to tell us whether the adults we asked to join favor one party or another.

Households in very pro-Trump and anti-Trump precincts were somewhat less like to agree to join the ATP

We can, however, answer this question for the people we asked to join who are registered to vote and live a state that records party registration. Researchers took the 16,001 addresses sampled in 2020 for recruitment and matched them to a national registered voter file. This matching yielded 23,503 registered voter records. Some 42% of those voter records were registered with a political party. This analysis finds no clear indication that people’s likelihood of joining the panel is related to partisanship. The share of registered Republicans at addresses we sampled who agreed to join the ATP (12%) was not statistically different from the share of registered Democrats who agreed to join (13%).  

A different approach yielded a more discernable pattern. The alternate approach involved looking at the community in which people live – specifically whether it is a pro-Trump area or not – to make inferences about the people asked to join the panel. Researchers did this by looking at precinct-level voting data. At the time of this analysis, only data from the 2016 election was available. Researchers analyzed what share of the precinct’s voters backed Donald Trump in 2016 and looked to see if there was a relationship with willingness to join the ATP. 

Overall, the relationship is fairly noisy. Willingness to join the ATP does not consistently increase or decrease as precincts get progressively more supportive of Trump. That said, there is some indication that willingness to join the panel is slightly lower at both extremes. In the most pro-Trump areas – precincts across the U.S. with the highest Trump vote share – 9% of sampled households agreed to join the panel. In the most anti-Trump areas – precincts with the lowest Trump vote share – 8% of sampled households agreed to join the panel. In the rest of the country 11% of sampled households agreed to join the panel.5

In analysis controlling for local levels of wealth, education, and racial composition, the electoral support for Trump remains a negative predictor (albeit a modest one) of a household’s likelihood of joining the ATP.6 On balance, these analyses suggest that Trump supporters may be slightly less likely than others to join the ATP. 

Testing for partisan differences in dropping out of the panel

While 2016 Trump voters were more likely to drop out of the ATP than other voters, this could be explained by demographics

Another way that a partisan imbalance could emerge is if Republicans are more likely to drop out of the panel than Democrats, or vice versa. There are several reasons why people drop out of survey panels, including becoming too busy or disinterested, changing contact information and losing touch, incapacitation, death, or removal by panel management. On the ATP most dropout is from panelist inactivity (i.e., not responding to several consecutive surveys) eventually leading to their removal.

As a starting point, researchers examined panelists who completed the 2016 post-election survey, which attempted to interview the entire panel. Researchers determined which of these panelists from 2016 were still taking surveys fours year later in 2020. The majority of the 2016 panelists (78%) remained active in 2020, while 22% had dropped out. Panelists who said they voted for Trump in 2016 were somewhat more likely to drop out of the panel than those who voted for another candidate (22% versus 19%, respectively). This result, while based on just one panel, lends some support to the notion that Trump supporters have become slightly less willing to participate in surveys in recent years.

Dropout rates varied across other dimensions as well. For example, panelists who in 2016 were younger and had lower levels of formal education were more likely to drop out of the panel than others. In fact, when controlling for a panelist’s age and education level, Trump voters were not significantly more likely to leave the panel than other voters. In other words, the higher dropout rate among Trump supporters is likely explained by their demographic characteristics. 

Evaluating the composition of the panel

Another way researchers evaluated the ATP was to look at the overall shares of Republicans and Democrats and determine if those shares were correct. This simple question is extremely difficult to answer, for several reasons:

  • No timely, definitive data exist to provide an answer. Polling data are timely but often limited by sampling as well as other potential errors. Gold-standard surveys like the General Social Survey (GSS) are quite accurate but less timely and exclude the 8% of adults who are not citizens. Presidential elections are authoritative but exclude the roughly 40% of adults who cannot or do not vote. 
  • Surveys require statistical adjustments called “weighting.” It is debatable whether investigators should focus only on the weighted (adjusted) partisan estimates or whether they should also consider a panel’s unweighted (raw) partisan estimates. 

Keeping these limitations in mind, researchers analyzed the partisan composition of the ATP over time, by recruitment cohort. Since the ATP was created in 2014, the Center has usually, though not always, fielded an annual recruitment to add new panelists. The size and design of the recruitment has changed over time. Notably, starting in 2018, the recruitment switched to address-based sampling (ABS) instead telephone random digit dial (RDD).

The analysis found that the recruitment cohorts generally have been getting less Republican over time. The raw, unweighted share of new ATP recruits identifying as Republican or leaning Republican was 45% in 2015, 40% in 2018 and 38% in 2020.  The forces behind that trend are not entirely clear, as there are at least three potential explanations. 

The methodological change in 2018 from using RDD to ABS to recruit panelists may have played a role. The RDD-recruited cohorts both had proportionally more Republicans than the ABS-recruited cohorts. Another possible explanation for the trend is that the GOP has been losing adherents gradually over time. In other words, the unweighted ATP recruitments may reflect a real decline in the share of adults identifying as Republican nationally. While national demographic changes suggest that is plausible, this idea is not supported by the Center’s or other survey organizations’ research. For example, Pew Research Center, the General Social Survey and Gallup all show the share of U.S. adults identifying as Republican or leaning Republican being generally stable since 2016. Since there is no compelling evidence that there was a significant decline in Republican affiliation from 2014 to 2020, this explanation seems unlikely. 

More recent recruitment cohorts have been less Republican than early ones

Another explanation could be that Republicans are increasingly unwilling to participate in surveys. This idea would suggest that the unweighted ATP recruitments reflect a real decline in the share of Republicans responding to surveys or joining survey panels. This idea is not supported by GSS or Gallup poll trends. However, it is consistent with one prominent interpretation of polling errors in the 2016 and 2020 elections: that they stem from certain types of Republicans not participating in polls.

Whatever the cause, the newer cohorts are less Republican. This trend has not, however, had much effect on ATP survey estimates. This is because every ATP survey features a weighting adjustment for political affiliation. This means that the surveys are weighted to align with the share of U.S. adults who identify as a Democrat or Republican, based on an external source.7 The weighted partisan balance on the ATP has been rather stable. The weighted share of adults in ATP surveys who are Republican or lean to the Republican Party has stayed in the 42% to 45% range for six years. 

While weighting helps to make ATP estimates nationally representative, the trend in the unweighted data is a concern. The recent increases in the size of the weighting correction on partisanship suggests that the panel would benefit from shoring up participation among harder to reach groups. If that is successful, then reliance on weighting will lessen. 

As mentioned earlier, Pew Research Center is pursuing several measures. The first step is adjusting the composition of the existing panel. Researchers identified panelists belonging to overrepresented groups (e.g., panelists who get weighted down rather than up). A subset of this group of panelists, which skews highly educated and collectively leans Democratic, is being retired from the panel, meaning they will no longer be surveyed. Details of the retirement plan are in Appendix B. Researchers are also exploring new and potentially more effective ways to recruit adults who have historically been difficult to empanel (which includes lower socioeconomic status adults of all races and political views). This includes recruitment of adults who are resistant to taking surveys online, developing new ATP recruitment materials, and exploring an offline response mode. 

The impact from these modifications on ATP estimates will generally be subtle because panel surveys have long been weighting on key dimensions like partisanship, education, and civic and political engagement. But even small improvements in accuracy are worth pursuing and relying less on weighting as a corrective will make estimates more precise. 

(PEW)

APRIL 8, 2021

Source: https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2021/04/08/confronting-2016-and-2020-polling-limitations/

685-43-13/Poll

The Asian Population In The US Grew 81% Between 2000 And 2019

Asian Americans recorded the fastest population growth rate among all racial and ethnic groups in the United States between 2000 and 2019. The Asian population in the U.S. grew 81% during that span, from roughly 10.5 million to a record 18.9 million, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of U.S. Census Bureau population estimates, the last before 2020 census figures are released. Furthermore, by 2060, the number of U.S. Asians is projected to rise to 35.8 million, more than triple their 2000 population. 

Hispanics saw the second-fastest population growth between 2000 and 2019, followed by Native Hawaiians and Pacific Islanders (NHPI) at 70% and 61%, respectively. The nation’s Black population also grew during this period, albeit at a slower rate of 20%. There was virtually no change in the White population.

The growth of the Asian American population in the U.S. comes amid reports of discrimination and violence against this group since the start of the coronavirus outbreak. In a Pew Research Center survey conducted in early March 2021 – before the fatal shooting of six Asian women and two other people in the Atlanta area on March 16 – 87% of Asian Americans said there is a lot of or some discrimination against them in society. In a June 2020 survey, 31% of Asians reported they had been the subject of slurs or jokes since the COVID-19 outbreak began, and 26% said they had feared someone might threaten or physically attack them because of their race or ethnicity. (Asian adults in both surveys were interviewed in English only.)

Average population growth of Asian Americans has slowed over the past two decades

The average annual growth rate of the Asian American population in the U.S. has slowed since 2000. From 2000 to 2005, it grew by an average of 3.9% per year. It dropped to 3.1% per year between 2005 and 2010, remained at that level between 2010 and 2015, and then fell to 2.4% per year between 2015 and 2019.

Growth of Asian American population has slowed but remains among the highest

Despite the slowdown, the U.S. Asian population has still had one of the highest growth rates of any major racial and ethnic group in most years since 2000. The exception was between 2005 and 2010, when the growth rate among Hispanic Americans slightly outpaced than of Asian Americans (3.4% vs 3.1% per year).

Asian American population grew in all states and D.C. between 2000 and 2019

Detailed table: U.S. Asian populations in 50 states and D.C., 2000 and 2019

The Asian American population has increased in every state and the District of Columbia over the past two decades. California had an Asian population of roughly 5.9 million in 2019, by far the nation’s largest. It was followed by New York (1.7 million), Texas (1.5 million), New Jersey (870,000) and Illinois (732,000). A majority of U.S. Asians (56%) live in these five states.

The Asian American population grew fastest in North and South Dakota between 2000 and 2019, but the more populated states saw the largest increases in overall numbers

In terms of growth rates, North Dakota and South Dakota saw the fastest increases in their Asian American populations between 2000 and 2019. The Asian populations in both states more than tripled during that time. Indiana, Nevada and North Carolina also saw significant growth as their Asian populations increased by 183%, 176% and 175%, respectively.

California, Texas and New York saw the most robust numerical growth in their Asian American populations between 2000 and 2019. Together, these three states accounted for 43% of overall Asian population growth in the U.S. during that period. The number of Asian Americans grew by over 2 million in California, by 883,000 in Texas and by 617,000 in New York. Notably, the Asian population grew more in Texas than in New York during this span, even though more Asians still reside in New York.

Asian American population growth in some states surpassed the state’s overall population growth

In West Virginia, the Asian population increased between 2000 and 2019 even though the state’s overall population declined. The decrease in West Virginia’s overall population can be largely attributed to a decline in the state’s White population, which makes up a majority of the state’s populace.

In some states, Asian American population growth outpaced overall growth between 2000 and 2019

In four other states, increases in the number of Asian Americans between 2000 and 2019 exceeded the state’s overall population growth. That was especially apparent in Michigan, where the Asian population grew by more than four times as much as the state’s overall population (151,000 vs. 34,000). New York, Illinois and Rhode Island had similar patterns, though to a lesser degree.    

In two other states, Asian Americans accounted for more than half of statewide population growth from 2000 to 2019. Asians accounted for 83% of total population growth in New Jersey and 57% in Connecticut during this span.

(PEW)

APRIL 9, 2021

Source: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/04/09/asian-americans-are-the-fastest-growing-racial-or-ethnic-group-in-the-u-s/

685-43-14/Poll

Eight-In-Ten (81%) Agree That ‘Natural Resource Development Is Good For Canada

Vancouver BC, April 8, 2021 — A new online poll conducted on behalf of Resource Works Resource Works and the Task Force for Real Jobs, Real Recovery[1] shows strong support for natural resource development. Canadians see the sector as important to the economy and as an opportunity to help Canada’s post COVID-19 economic recovery.

 

Support for Natural Resource Sector

Canadians support the natural resource sector. Eight-in-ten (81%) agree that ‘natural resource development is good for Canada’ (only 13% disagree) and more than eight-in-ten (83%) agree that ‘Canada's natural resource sector is an important contributor to the Canadian economy today’ (only 10% disagree).

Canadians also view the sector as being important to restarting the Canadian economy. Roughly three-quarters (73%) of Canadians agree that ‘investment in Canada's natural resource sector will help Canada's post COVID-19 economic recovery’ (only 15% disagree).

As shown in the table below, agreement with all three of these statements is well above majority levels in every region of the country and among all age groups.

 

Continued Importance of Natural Resource Sector

Canadians do not accept the idea that the natural resource sector is becoming less important to the national economy. Only about one-third (32%) of Canadians agree that ‘Canada's natural resource sector is less important to the economy than it has been in the past’ (56% disagree). And a similar one-third agree that ‘Canada's natural resource sector will become less important to the economy over the next 10 to 20 years’ (51% disagree).

 

Continued Importance of Natural Resource Sector

Currently, about 19% of Canada's energy comes from renewable sources[2]. Canadians do not think an energy transition away from fossil-based energy (e.g. oil and natural gas) to a majority (50%+) renewable energy sources (e.g. wind, hydro, solar and geothermal) is something that will happen in the next few years.

Very few Canadians (12%) think that renewables can provide a majority of Canada’s energy in the next 10 years. The largest proportion of Canadians think the transition will take either 20 years (28%) or 30 years (22%). Another two-in-ten (19%) think the transition will take 40 years or more, while 18% are undecided.

Collectively, 41% of Canadians think the transition to a majority of renewable energy sources will take 20 years or less. An equal proportion (41%) thinks the transition will take 30 years or more. This means the median projection is a 25-year transition.

(Ipsos Canada) 

8 April 2021

Source: https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/canadians-support-natural-resource-development

685-43-15/Poll

Over Half (53%) Of Canadian Households $200 Or Less Away From Insolvency, Yet Still Optimistic About Financial Future

Toronto, ON, April 8, 2021 — After several months of going through a second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, there are signs that Canadians are starting to feel more positive towards their personal finances. Now in its sixteenth wave, the MNP Consumer Debt Index, conducted quarterly by Ipsos, tracks Canadians’ attitudes about their debt situation and their ability to meet their monthly payment obligations. The Index currently stands at 96 points, up seven points over December 2020, offering a sign that things could be looking up for Canadians as the country cautiously re-opens.

 

Pinched Financially, but Still Optimistic

While things may seem on the up-and-up, the Index has also found that households are reporting having less money left over at the end of the month ($625 on average, -$108 from December). This decline could be the result of generous government aid programs and debt holidays given by lenders simply having run their course. Canadian households may be discovering that their bills are becoming due, even if many may not be back to full-time employment.

 

Potential Debt Trap as Low-Interest Spending Continues

With interest rates having remained low in 2020, some Canadians have seen opportunities to take advantage of favourable rates to make purchases not normally within their budget. Six in ten (59%) believe that now is a good time to buy things that they otherwise might not be able to afford (-2 from December). In addition, nearly half (49%) say they’re more relaxed about carrying debt than they usually are (+2), rising to more than half (53%) of those aged 18-34 and 60% among those living in Quebec.

Despite the uncertainty brought by the pandemic, bad financial habits are still in evidence. With interest rates potentially set to increase in 2021, over four in ten (44%) are afraid that they will be in financial trouble if rates go up much more, and four in ten (40%) are already beginning to feel the effects of interest rates increasing. Furthermore, over half (51%) are concerned about their ability to repay their debts if interest rates rise. Those aged 18-34 (59%) and 35-54 (59%) are more likely to be concerned about their ability to repay their debts if interest rates rise, compared to those aged 55+ (40%).

About four in ten (35%) are concerned that rising interest rates could move them towards bankruptcy, rising to over half (52%) among those aged 18-34 and those living in Atlantic Canada. This concern is also prominent among those who have a household income under $40,000 (42%).

 

Changing Habits as Pandemic Adds to Debt Load

The survey finds that as many over half (55%) of Canadians say they have had to change their financial habits in some way as a result of the pandemic, and over two in ten (25%) have taken on more debt since March of last year. This includes using their savings to pay for bills (20%), using credit cards (14%), using line of credit (7%), taking out a bank loan (3%), or deferring mortgage payments (3%).

Given the difficulties over the past year, some Canadians are considering changing their financial habits over the next year, with nearly half (45%) say they are going to change in some way. Over two in ten (22%) say they are considering reducing their consumer spending or expenses, rising to nearly three in ten (29%) among those who live in Alberta. Some Canadians are considering paying their bills in the next year by using their savings (12%), credit cards (8%), taking out a bank loan (5%), or using a line of credit (5%). However, very few Canadians are planning to get professional help (4%) or contact a licensed insolvency true to discuss debt relief options (2%) in the next year.

(Ipsos Canada)

8 April 2021

Source: https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/over-half-53-canadian-households-200-or-less-away-insolvency-yet-still-optimistic-about-financial

685-43-16/Poll

42% Of Brazilians Believe That The Country's Interests Must Come Before Politics

Political interests should not be put ahead of the country's interests by political leaders. This is what 42% of Brazilians said in a survey conducted by Ipsos in partnership with The Global Institute for Women´s Leadership on the behavior of government officials in the post-pandemic.
The survey asked respondents to put, in order of priority, the desired characteristics of a political leader in post-COVID-19 recovery work. For 42% of Brazilians, a leader should never place political interests above those of the country. For 38%, a leader should be honest with the public. Making the right decisions at the right times and acting quickly to help people in the country were characteristics cited by 27% of respondents.
The online survey was conducted with 20,520 respondents, of which 1,000 were Brazilians, aged between 16 and 74 years old from 28 countries. The data were collected between January 22 and February 5, 2021 and the margin of error for Brazil is 3.5 percentage points.

(Ipsos Brazil)

9 April 2021

Source: https://www.ipsos.com/pt-br/42-dos-brasileiros-acreditam-que-interesses-do-pais-devem-vir-antes-da-politica

 

AUSTRALIA

685-43-17/Poll

1.64 Million Australians Unemployed In March (Down 291,000 On February) For An Unemployment Rate Of 11.4% - The Lowest For A Year

Latest Roy Morgan employment series data shows 1.64 million Australians unemployed in March (down 291,000 on February) for an unemployment rate of 11.4% - the lowest for a year.

  • 12.75 million Australians were employed in March – the highest since early March 2020:

    12,749,000 Australians were employed, up 46,000 from February driven by an increase in full-time employment, up 83,000 to 8,405,000. Part-time employment was down 37,000 to 4,344,000.
  • Unemployment dropped in March with Australians finding jobs and others leaving the workforce:

    1,639,000 Australians were unemployed (11.4% of the workforce), down 291,000 from February. There were fewer people looking for full-time work (down 122,000 to 668,000), and part-time work (down 169,000 to 971,000).
  • The workforce was down in March, but the second highest ever behind February’s record:

    The workforce in March was 14,388,000 – comprised of 12,749,000 employed Australians (an increase of 46,000) and 1,639,000 unemployed Australians looking for work (down 291,000).

Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 11.4% for March is over 5% points higher than the current ABS estimate for February 2021 of 5.8%. However, the ABS figure for February counts as employed an additional 127,000 Australians who were working zero hours for ‘economic reasons’. If these non-workers are added back the ABS unemployment estimate for February increases to 932,000 (6.7%). The ABS also claims there are 1.18 million Australians (8.5%) under-employed for a total of 2.11 million unemployed or under-employed (15.2% of the workforce).

  • Under-employment down in March as full-time employment increases and part-time employment falls for the third straight month:

    In addition to those who were unemployed, 1.09 million Australians (7.6% of the workforce) were under-employed – working part-time but looking for more work. This was a decrease of 49,000 on February.

    In total 2.73 million Australians (19.0% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in March, a decrease of 340,000 on February. The drops in both unemployment and under-employment drove the measure to its lowest since early March 2020.

Compared to early March 2020, before the nation-wide lockdown was implemented, in March 2021 there were over 550,000 more Australians either unemployed or under-employed (+3.4% points).


Unemployment was lowest in Victoria and NSW during last month of JobKeeper wage subsidy

Unemployment dropped in all five mainland States in March as we approached the end of the JobKeeper wage subsidy. A look at the trends on a State-based level shows unemployment was lowest in the two largest States of NSW at 10.2% (down 1.3% points from February) and Victoria at 9.8% (down 2.9% points).

Next best was South Australia on 11.0% (down 1.4% points). Unemployment remains highest in Queensland at 14.7%, although this was down 1.2% points and Western Australia at 14.0% (down 0.5% points).

The biggest driver of the declines in unemployment was people leaving the workforce and no longer looking for work but there was also jobs growth in NSW and in particular Victoria as the State re-opened fully in March following a short State-wide lockdown in mid-February. There were an extra 229,000 people employed in Victoria in March compared to February and employment growth of 3,000 in NSW.

The JobKeeper wage subsidy program has now finished and this is expected to lead to significant job losses over the next few months. There were over 1.5 million Australians receiving the wage subsidy at the end of 2020 and an estimated 1.1 million were on the program during the March quarter 2021.

According to Dr. Steven Kennedy, Secretary to the Australian Treasury, as many as 150,000 Australians may lose their jobs at the conclusion of the JobKeeper wage subsidy program.


Roy Morgan Unemployment & Under-employment (2019-2021)

Roy Morgan Unemployment & Under-employment (2019-2021)

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source January 2019 – March 2021. Average monthly interviews 5,000.
Note: Roy Morgan unemployment estimates are actual data while the ABS estimates are seasonally adjusted.


Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says the March 2021 estimates show there are now far more unemployed or under-employed Australians looking for work than a year ago even though employment levels are essentially back to where they were a year ago pre-COVID-19:

“Roy Morgan’s results for March 2021 show jobs growth continuing for the sixth straight month since Victoria’s long second lockdown ended in October 2020, up 46,000 to 12.75 million in March. This is marginally below the employment levels of a year ago in early March 2020 (12.87 million) with 8.41 million now employed full-time and 4.34 million employed part-time.

“The difference to a year ago is an extra 550,000 Australians either unemployed or under-employed. In March 2021 there were 2.73 million Australians (19% of the workforce) either unemployed or under-employed compared to 2.16 million (15.6%) in early March 2020.

“The ending of the JobKeeper wage subsidy at the end of March adds an extra ‘wrinkle’ to assessing the jobs market as an estimated 1.1 million Australians were receiving the subsidy during the March quarter 2021 and up to 150,000 may lose their jobs in the coming weeks and months according to Dr. Steven Kennedy of the Australian Treasury.

“The good news for those looking for work is that Australian businesses are more confident than they’ve been for more than seven years since early 2014. The latest Roy Morgan Business Confidence for March is at 124.0 – and a clear majority of 59.4% of businesses say the next 12 months is a good time to invest in growing the business.

“In addition retail sales continue to be strong with the latest ABS Retail Sales figures for February 2021 showing annual growth of 9.1% from a year ago. Over the last nine months since June 2020 Retail Sales have averaged annual growth of 9.2% on a year ago – an unprecedented boom for larger retailers as Australians have been prevented from spending on travel and holidays due to frequent domestic border closures and a closed international border.

“These are positive indicators for those that may lose their jobs in the next few weeks or months due to the end of the JobKeeper wage subsidy that they should be able to find new employment even if it may be in a different industry to their existing employment.

“The rollout of the COVID-19 vaccines in Australia has been criticised for lagging other countries, however now that domestic production of the vaccine is ramping up this should lead to greater distribution of vaccines over the next few months and increase confidence that there will be no more domestic border closures or lockdowns during the second half of the year.”

This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly face-to-face interviews of 745,847 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 and March 2021 and includes 5,959 telephone and online interviews in March 2021. *The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or freelancers who are looking for more work.

Contact Roy Morgan to learn more about Australia’s unemployed and under-employed; who and where they are, and the challenges they face as they search for employment opportunities.

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to purchase employment profiles, including for Australians who are employedunemployedunder-employedemployed part-timeemployed full-timeretiredstudying and many more.

(Roy Morgan)

April 07 2021

Source: https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8682-roy-morgan-australian-unemployment-and-under-employment-estimates-march-2021-202104070821

685-43-18/Poll

83% Of Australians Have Either Already Been Vaccinated (7%), Say They Are Willing To Be Vaccinated

Now 83% of Australians have either already been vaccinated (7%), say they are willing to be vaccinated (69%) or would be willing to be vaccinated once the Pfizer vaccine becomes available (7%) – a total of 83% and an increase of 3% points since February, according to a special Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey conducted on Friday April 9 and Saturday April 10, 2021.

Although the vast majority of Australians – across all ages, genders, States and political party allegiances- are willing to take the vaccine or have already done so, there is a strong political divide. Only 13% of L-NP voters say they will not be vaccinated, while more than 1-in-5 Labor and Green voters and those who vote for Independents and other parties express unwillingness to be vaccinated.

The nation is evenly split on Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s handling of all COVID-19 related issues with 51% disapproving of Morrison’s handling of the pandemic and 49% approving.

Clear majority support for Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s handling of all COVID-19 related issues is recorded among Australians aged 65+, people in country areas, NSW, Queensland, Western Australia and Tasmania, as well as L-NP supporters.

In contrast a majority of younger Australians, women, people in capital cities and Victoria as well as supporters of the ALP and the Greens disapprove of Morrison’s handling of the pandemic.

Australians surveyed were each asked the following questions:

  • Question 1: “Are you willing to be vaccinated for COVID-19 or not?” Respondents who said “No” were then asked: “If the Pfizer vaccine for COVID-19 became available would you be willing to be vaccinated?” Already vaccinated 7%, Yes 69%, Yes (with Pfizer vaccine) 7%, TOTAL Yes 83% cf. No 17%.
  • Question 2“Thinking about Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s handling of all COVID-19 related issues. Do you approve or disapprove?” Approve 49% cf. Disapprove 51%.

This special Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey was conducted with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,423 Australians aged 18+ on Friday April 9 – Saturday April 10, 2021.


Australians aged 65+ are most likely to be getting a vaccine (or already vaccinated)

In mid-April, 16% of Australians aged 65+ have already been vaccinated – three times the rate of any other age group –  a further 68% of this age group say they are willing to be vaccinated for COVID-19 and another 6% would be willing to be vaccinated with the Pfizer vaccine -  a total of 90% of the age group most at risk from a potential COVID-19 infection.

Next most likely are Australians aged 50-64 of whom 6% have already been vaccinated, 72% say they are willing to be vaccinated and 8% say they would be willing to be vaccinated with the Pfizer vaccine – a total of 85% of this age group. People aged 50-64 have had the biggest positive increase in those expressing a willingness to be vaccinated – up 5% points since mid-February.

In contrast, younger Australians aged under 50 are less likely than either of the older age groups to express a willingness to be vaccinated, 79% of people aged under 50 express a willingness for being vaccinated (5% already vaccinated, 67% willing to be vaccinated and 7% willing to be vaccinated with the Pfizer vaccine). 21% of people under 50 are unwilling to be vaccinated – a potential problem.


Men are still more willing to be vaccinated but women have closed the gap since mid-February

Men are again more likely than women to express a willingness to be vaccinated with 84% either already vaccinated (6%), willing to be vaccinated (73%) or willing to be vaccinated with the Pfizer vaccine (5%) – a total of 84% up only 1% point since mid-February.

Women are ‘catching up’ to men over their willingness to be vaccinated compared to mid-February with 81% either already vaccinated (9%), willing to be vaccinated (64%) or willing to be vaccinated with the Pfizer vaccine (8%) – a total of 81% up 4% points since mid-February.


L-NP supporters most willing to be vaccinated far ahead of ALP or Greens supporters

L-NP supporters are more likely to express a willingness to be vaccinated than two months ago with 87% now saying they are willing to be vaccinated including 6% who are already vaccinated, 72% who say they are willing to be vaccinated and a further 9% who are willing to be vaccinated with the Pfizer vaccine – a total of 87% and up 5% points since mid-February.

In contrast the willingness of ALP supporters to be vaccinated is unchanged from mid-February at 78% including 6% who are already vaccinated, 63% who are willing to be vaccinated and a further 9% who are willing to be vaccinated with the Pfizer vaccine.

The interesting result is for Greens supporters, 79% of whom are now willing to be vaccinated, down 5% points since mid-February. Only 3% of Greens supporters have already been vaccinated while a further 73% say they are willing to be vaccinated with an additional 3% willing to be vaccinated with the Pfizer vaccine.


People in Capital Cities more willing to be vaccinated than those in Country Areas

A large majority of 85% of Australians in Capital Cities say they are willing to be vaccinated (8% already vaccinated, 71% willing to be vaccinated and 6% willing to be vaccinated with the Pfizer vaccine) compared to 79% of people in Country Areas (6% already vaccinated, 66% willing to be vaccinated and 7% willing to be vaccinated with the Pfizer vaccine). These totals represent small increases of 2% points for people in Capital Cities and 4% for people in Country Areas willing to be vaccinated since mid-February.

At a State level people in Tasmania are most willing to be vaccinated (88%, up 13% points since mid-February)– and have also increased the most in their willingness to be vaccinated since mid-February.

Next most willing to be vaccinated are people in Victoria (85%, up 3% points since mid-February), New South Wales (84%, down 2% points) and Western Australia (82%, up 6% points).

Least willing to be vaccinated – although still a clear majority – are people in South Australia (78%, up 2% points since mid-February) and Queensland (79%, up 8% points).


Approval of Scott Morrison’s handling of COVID-19 is highest among older Australians aged 65+

Older Australians are easily the most likely to approve of Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s handling of all COVID-19 related issues with 62% approving compared to only 38% disapproving.

Their views are almost directly reversed by younger Australians aged under 35 of whom 61% disapprove of Morrison’s handling of all COVID-19 related issues compared to only 39% that approve.

People aged both 35-49 (49% approve cf. 51% disapprove) and 50-64 (50% approve cf. 50% disapprove) are almost equally split on the question.

There is little difference by gender with 50% of men approving and 50% disapproving of Morrison’s handling of all COVID-19 related issues while a small majority of 52% of women disapprove compared to 48% who approve.


Victoria is the weakest state for Morrison with 62% disapproving of his handling of COVID-19 related issues

The results at a State level reveal where the lack of support lies for Morrison with 62% of Victorians disapproving of his handling of all COVID-19 related issues compared to only 38% who approve.

Interestingly small majorities of people in four States including NSW (54%), Queensland (55%), WA (51%) and Tasmania (52%) approve of the way Morrison has handled all COVID-19 related issues.

South Australians are evenly split with 50% approving and 50% disapproving.

On a regional level Morrison enjoys the approval of a slim majority of 51% of people in Country Areas compared to 49% that disapprove while this result is reversed for those in Capital Cities with 52% disapproving of his handling of all COVID-19 related issues and 48% approving.


L-NP supporters approve of Morrison’s handling of COVID-19 related issues while ALP & Greens supporters don’t

Unsurprisingly a clear majority of 60% of L-NP supporters approve of Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s handling of all COVID-19 related issues compared to 40% that disapprove.

In contrast nearly two-thirds of ALP supporters (64%) and Greens supporters (65%) disapprove of Morrison’s handling of all COVID-19 related issues compared to only 36% of ALP supporters and 35% of Greens supporters that approve.


Michele Levine CEO Roy Morgan, says as the COVID-19 vaccine progresses slowly around Australia – certainly slower than we were led to expect would be the case – an increasing majority of Australians say they are willing to be vaccinated:

“Despite substantial controversy over the COVID-19 vaccines in mid-April a majority of 83% of Australians are willing to be vaccinated against COVID-19, up 3% from 80% in mid-February. This includes 7% of Australians who are already vaccinated, a further 69% who say they are willing to get vaccinated and an additional 7% who are willing to get vaccinated if they can take the Pfizer vaccine. Only one-in-six Australians (17%) say they are not willing to be vaccinated.

“Despite the slower than expected rollout of COVID-19 vaccines the increasing support for being vaccinated is a positive sign that vaccine coverage will reach a large majority of the population when the vaccine rollout is completed – which may not be until early 2022 and current rates.

“Those keenest to receive a vaccine a are those most at risk from serious health complications from the virus with 90% of people aged 65+ willing to be vaccinated including 16% who have already been vaccinated and a further 74% willing to be vaccinated. Willingness to be vaccinated is also very high for those aged 50-64 while just under 80% of people aged under 50 say the same.

“The country is divided on Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s handling of all COVID-19 related issues with 51% disapproving and 49% approving. There is little difference between the two genders though there is a clear age-related difference with over three-fifths of people aged 65+ (62%) approving of Morrison’s handling of COVID-19 while only 39% of people aged under 35 approve.

“There is also a clear weakness for Morrison in Victoria – only 38% of Victorians approve of Morrison’s handling of COVID-19 while the Prime Minister enjoys a majority of approval in New South Wales (54%), Queensland (55%), Western Australia (51%) and election-bound Tasmania (52%).

“These results show that although Australia’s handling of COVID-19 in comparison to other countries overseas has been well recognized as one of the best, the slow rollout of the COVID-19 vaccines threatens to undermine this story.

“If other similar countries overseas return to a ‘post-COVID-normal’ with the return of international travel well before Australia does, the Government’s adept handling of the initial stages of the pandemic may be forgotten in the run-up to the next Federal Election expected early in 2022.”

(Roy Morgan)

April 11 2021

Source: https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8678-roy-morgan-survey-on-vaccines-pfizer-morrison-april-12-2021-202104110838

685-43-19/Poll

Subway Tops Yougov Australia’s Dining & Qsr Rankings 2021

  • YouGov release global rankings of best Dining & QSR brands
  • Local dining brands dominate the top ten
  • Hungry Jack’s second most value-for-money
  • Bakers Delight the brand Aussies would be proudest to work for

Subway tops YouGov’s 2021 Dining & QSR Rankings for Australia with an Index score of +27.6, making it the restaurant brand with the best overall brand health according to Australians.

The rankings are compiled using YouGov BrandIndex Index score, a measure of overall brand health calculated by taking the average of Impression, Quality, Value, Satisfaction, Recommend and Reputation scores. The rankings are measured from 1 March 2020 to 28 February 2021.   

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/dlz9xhe5jh/Dining&QSR%20Rankings2021-TopRanked-AU.jpg

Subway comes up on top in five of the six metrics that make up its Index score – particularly for Value (measuring which brand consumers see to be most value-for-money). It holds a Value score of +29.3, making it 7.7 points ahead of Hungry Jack’s (+21.6) who comes in second in this metric. The one metric where it falls behind is on Reputation (measuring which brand consumers would be proudest to work for). Baker’s Delight tops for Reputation (+18.2), followed by The Coffee Club (+13.8) and Boost Juice (+12.7) – with Subway taking fourth in this metric (+12.2).

Local favourite Bakers Delight comes in second overall (+22.8), with a healthy score to marking their 40th anniversary last year. Other Aussie brands also fare well, with Boost Juice in fourth (+15.6), Hungry Jack’s and Grill’d in joint fifth (+15.4) and The Coffee Club in eighth (+13.6). Healthy burger chain Grill’d does particularly well when it comes to their Recommend metric (measuring which brand consumers are most likely to recommend), coming in as the third (+18.2) most recommended brand on the list.

American fast-food chains also fare well in the top ten. KFC is in third (+15.9), McDonald’s in seventh (+14.3). McDonald’s scores particularly well in the Satisfaction metric, coming in third (+23.4), behind Subway (+30.4) and KFC (+25.1). Domino’s Pizza is in tenth (+12.8) and South African chain Nando’s is in ninth (+13.4).

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/kw9e56joxs/Dining&QSR%20Rankings2021-TopImprover-AU.jpg

(YouGov Australia)

April 8, 2021

Source: https://au.yougov.com/news/2021/04/08/subway-tops-yougov-australias-dining-qsr-rankings-/

 

MULTICOUNTRY STUDIES

685-43-20/Poll

Almost One In Two People Worldwide (45%) Say That Covid-19 Is One Of The Main Problems Facing Their Country In March 2021

Almost one in two people worldwide (45%) say that Covid-19 is one of the main problems facing their country in March 2021, a year after the global pandemic was declared. Although this figure is 5 points lower than last month and the lowest level registered since October 2020.
Unemployment is the second most important problem in all countries (37%), followed by poverty and social inequality (31 %) and financial / political corruption (29%). Crime and violence is the fifth most important problem this month, as it was last month, at 24%.

When asked if things in their country are going in the right direction or going the wrong way, more than six in 10 (62%) citizens of the 27 countries chose to say that they were "the wrong way", while 38% say it is "in the right direction".
This more pessimistic view is the one most shared by the citizens of Peru (85%), South Africa (80%) and Poland (also 80%). Three-quarters or more in Argentina (78%), Spain (77%) and Chile (75%) also say that things in their country are going in the wrong direction.
The countries with the biggest month-on-month increases in respondents saying things are "going the wrong way" are Turkey (+5 points) and Hungary (+4).
By contrast, more say things are going "in the right direction" in Britain (+11 points), the Netherlands (+8) and the United States (+5) compared to last month.


Below are this month's headlines for each of the top topics.


Coronavirus (45%)

Malays are still the most concerned about Covid-19, but the current 61% is significantly lower than last month's 77%. Right behind, with 60%, is Great Britain, again in second place, followed by Japan and the Netherlands (both with 58%).
Most countries report a decline in Covid-19 concern this month, but there have been moderate increases in Brazil (+6) and Hungary (+6).
The coronavirus is the main concern in 14 of the 27 countries interviewed, up from 17 last month. The three countries that have left this list are South Korea (where Covid-19 now occupies the first place along with unemployment), Mexico (where crime and violence are again at the top of the list) and Spain(Unemployment exceeds Covid-19), in fact, concern about Covid is the lowest since the start of the pandemic, dropping 11 points this month compared to last month.

Unemployment (37%)

Unemployment is currently the second biggest concern worldwide, a position it has held throughout the Covid-19 pandemic. On average, 37% select it as one of the most important problems facing their country today.
60%, in both Italy and South Africa, say that unemployment is currently one of the main concerns in their country. Spain is just behind, with 58%, and more than half in South Korea (54%) also place unemployment among their main concerns.
The largest month-on-month increase in unemployment concern occurs in Belgium (+9 percentage points).

Poverty and social inequality

Three out of ten (31%) on average in all countries say that poverty and social inequality is one of the most worrying problems in their country today. This has been the third main topic of our survey in the last 12 months.
With six out of ten people selecting Poverty and Social Inequality in Russia, the country continues to show the highest level of concern about this issue of the 27 respondents. They are followed in the ranking by Hungary (45%), Chile (43%) and Argentina (41%).
The largest increases in this question compared to last month are observed in Argentina (+6 points) and Great Britain (also +6, up to 31%).

Financial / political corruption

Financial / political corruption is the fourth worldwide concern. Our study shows that almost three out of ten (29%) consider it on average one of the major problems facing their country today. Replacing Russia, South Africa tops the table; an increase of 8 points means that almost two-thirds (64%) say that corruption is a major concern. Peru and Russia follow, both with 50% of citizens concerned about this issue.
Malaysia (49%) and Hungary (46%) also register high levels of concern about corruption.
Spain is the country that has grown the most in this matter since last month (+13 points) , followed by Mexico (+10) and Japan (also +10).

Crime and violence

Crime and violence was the fifth most worrying issue in March, with an average of 24% in all countries that selected it as one of the most important problems facing their country.
Sweden is the country with the highest score (59%), followed by Chile and Mexico (both with 51%), and then Argentina and South Africa (both with 47%).
This month, crime and violence appear among the main concerns in 18 countries, led by Sweden, Chile, Mexico, Argentina and South Africa.
Previously, our survey had found that Mexicans were most concerned about Covid-19. While this topic was the most important during the first two months of 2021, it is now crime and violence again.

In the case of Spain, Health is the fifth greatest concern for 28% of Spaniards, which represents a drop of 5 points compared to February . In the different months we have seen how concern about health went hand in hand with the level of concern about Covid, when it increases the other also does so, and vice versa.

Economic approach

In the 27 countries, two-thirds (67%) consider the economic situation of their country to be "bad", while a third say it is "good", according to our world average of countries. However, there has been an increase of 3 points in which they rate their economy positively compared to last month.
Citizens are more likely to rate their country's economy as "very" or "somewhat" good in:
1. Saudi Arabia (90%)
2. India (68%)
3. Sweden (64%)
4. Australia (64 %)
5. = Germany (52%)
6. = Netherlands (52%)
The nations in which the largest majorities say their country's economy is "very" or "somewhat" bad are
1. 1. Argentina (92%)
2.
3. = Italy (88%)
4. = Japan (88%)
5. France (86%)

Our monitoring of economic expectations in 27 countries reveals a slight increase in optimism about the future of the local economy since last month. On average, a third (32%) say they will be stronger six months from now (+4 points), while a quarter (24%) think they will be weaker.
More people say the economy will be "a lot" or "somewhat" stronger in
1. Saudi Arabia (72%)
2. India (60%)
3. Brazil (54%)
4. Mexico (48%)
5. Australia (45%)
In the following countries, more expect the economy to be "a lot" or "somewhat" weaker:
1. 1. Japan (47%)
2. Poland (43%)
3. France (37 %)
4. Netherlands (37%)
5. = South Korea (36%) = Turkey (36%)

(Ipsos Spain)

April 6, 2021

Source: https://www.ipsos.com/es-es/what-worries-world-marzo-2021

685-43-21/Poll

Despite All Consequences Caused By The Pandemic During 2020, 79% Of The Global Population Perceived Themselves As Healthy

Health Perception

The year 2020 was full of unexpected changes, marked mainly by the COVID-19 pandemic. Global economic and health crises, alongside the adjustment of people to new lifestyles, were central last year.
In this context, WIN analyzed individuals’ health perceptions. While health per se used to be considered primarily as a biological and physical condition, nowadays other variables are considered as much important, such as the context we live in, our culture, our values, as well as the mental, cognitive and psychological conditions.
Despite all the negative consequences caused by the pandemic during the year 2020, 79% of the global population perceived themselves as healthy. The consistent result with previous measurements reveals that individuals worldwide might have started thinking about health as a set of different aspects besides the physical state. Of course, COVID19 is a very real and tangible threat, but for this very reason, people might consider themselves healthy even just because they could survive or avoid COVID19. In addition, precisely because of the threat caused by the pandemic, people might have started taking better care of themselves with simple, everyday actions.
However, despite the large majority considers themselves healthy, 20% of the population still consider themselves not healthy. Results show that males tend to perceive themselves as healthier than females. On the other hand, the survey reveals that the highest the education level of individuals, the healthiest they perceive themselves: some could argue that maintaining certain levels of activity by having employment, studying, and/or being a housewife seems to impact positively on the health perception compared to people being unemployed or retired.
While keeping in mind the broader meaning of health, citizens in Africa consider themselves among the healthiest continent (90%) ¹. On the global picture, Africa was far less hit by the pandemic in 2020 compared to other continents like Europe and the Americas. On the other hand, MENA is the region with the lowest rate of health perception observed (72%). When looking at countries, citizens in Indonesia (92%), South Korea (91%), and Pakistan (91%) consider themselves healthier than citizens in Hong Kong (66%), Finland (65%), and Chile (61%), which are on the bottom of the ranking.
As previously mentioned, health perception involves a complex mixture of variables, including everyday habits. In the present study, we focused on five specific habits which were both categorized as good and bad habits, and as action-based and non-action-based- habits.
The difference is that the latter relies on variables not always subjected by people´s choice. The positive habits explored in the study were “sleep well” (a non-action-based habit) and “exercise” (an action-based habit).

https://winmr.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/WWS-Health.jpg?x37849

Sleep Well

Sleeping well is necessary for the good maintenance of both the body and cognitive functioning, as well as emotional regulation. During 2020, 64%³ of the global population admits to sleeping well, and even better rate compared to last year´s (+3).
Males tend to sleep well more frequently than females, whereas people aged 35 to 45, probably because they’re more involved in their work lives than other age groups, tend to sleep well less often. Additionally, the highest the social class of belonging, the better they sleep; a similar tendency was observed in the relationship between academic achievement and quality of sleep.
While retired people, full-time workers, and self-employed seem to have a better quality of sleep, housewives are the ones who sleep the worst, especially considering this specific context brought by the pandemic. Having children at home for months and being more often in charge of their activities (eating, studying, sleeping…) might have increased the stress within this category, unleashing the worst sleep quality.

APAC and Europe are the regions with the better sleep quality among their citizens (69%³ and 64%³, respectively), while the opposite occurs in MENA region (54%). Palestinian Territories (51%), Mexico (49%) and Chile (48%) are at the bottom of the ranking.

Exercise

According to the results, 39%³ of people worldwide exercised regularly during 2020, +2% than the two previous years. Nonetheless, there is still a high rate of people doing little or no exercises at all (31%). Despite the safety measures put in place, which prevented people from going to the gym or to field courts, people who already exercised before adapted to the new conditions and kept doing exercises. Probably, many others, considering the difficulties of walking and moving around, started exercising at home precisely due to the safety measures adopted.
Females exercise less than males and, once again, housewives are the ones who exercise less among other employment categories. A positive outcome is that it’s not only the youngest (from 18 to 34) who exercise the most but also people aged 65 or more, another possible consequence of COVID19 which is a higher threat for seniors.
In Africa, Europe, and APAC 4 out of 10 people practice exercises regularly. Citizens in Finland (58%) and Spain (57%) are more likely to exercise than citizens in Peru (26%), Mexico (23%), and Chile (20%).

Suffer from stress

Suffer from stress is the first bad and non-action-based habit considered. During 2020, 31% of population suffered from stress regularly, while only 35% didn´t. Once again, despite the difficult context experienced, the variation between the results from 2020 and previous years is minimum.

Younger females (from 18 to 24), people with low incomes, students, unemployed, housewives, and part-time workers are among the individuals who tend to suffer from stress the most. Unsurprisingly, these individuals also represent the most vulnerable population around the globe, a result that emphasizes the relationship between social vulnerability and stress.
While MENA is the region with the highest rates of stress within the population (37%), the region with a lesser stress rate is APAC (28%). In terms of countries, the top countries with more stressed individuals are Japan (49%) and Serbia (49%). The bottom countries are Vietnam (11%) and Denmark (13%).

Smoking and Drinking

Nowadays, both smoking and drinking are uncommon habits, which were classified in the study as bad, action-based behaviors. Overall, 17%³ of the global population smokes regularly, while 15% drinks alcohol regularly. Even if last year´s rates didn´t change considerably in comparison with previous years, it is highly relevant at this moment to reduce the consumption of cigarettes and alcohol.
It is identified that males smoke and drink considerably more than females (smoking: 22% vs. 11%, and drinking: 20% vs. 11%).
Citizens in the MENA region smoke more frequently (34%), while citizens in Africa smoke way less (4%). Palestinian Territories (36%), Lebanon (28%), and Serbia (28%) are the countries with the higher number of smokers. On the other hand, Nigeria (4%), Peru (5%), and Paraguay (5%) are the ones with fewer smokers.
In Europe (20%) and APAC (16%), we find the most recurrent alcohol drinkers, the opposite of the habits in the MENA (4%) region. Japan (45%), Ireland (32%), and Great Britain (30%) have the higher percentages of drinkers, while Palestinian Territories (1%), Indonesia (3%), and Peru (4%) show the lowest rates.

(WIN)

7 Apr 2021

Source: https://winmr.com/health-perception-and-lifestyle-in-global-pandemic-times/

685-43-22/Poll

Citizens Weigh In On The Health Of Their Healthcare Systems In Mena

Of all the crises that have plagued countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the past decade, the COVID-19 pandemic stands out in at least one regard: the government in each country was not its primary cause. Yet managing the pandemic was the government’s primary responsibility, and citizens in several MENA countries have mixed appraisals of how their governments have fared. Where citizens in Algeria, Jordan, and Morocco are relatively satisfied with the governments’ response to healthcare side of the crisis, citizens in Lebanon, Libya, and Tunisia have been left wanting.

The pandemic may yet be an opportunity for the region’s governments to press the reset button on state-society relations, and it is perhaps too soon to tell whether or not governments have managed to do so. But ironically, and regardless of their intentions, governments’ abilities to govern were stilted by their past transgressions: the pandemic further exacerbated preexisting problems often engendered in the first place by governments’ negligence at best and corruption at worst. The healthcare sector is no exception.

(Arabbarometer)

April 7, 2021

Source: https://www.arabbarometer.org/2021/04/citizens-weigh-in-on-the-health-of-their-healthcare-systems-in-mena/