BUSINESS & POLITICS IN THE WORLD 

GLOBAL OPINION REPORT NO. 780 

Week: January 30 – February 05, 2023 

Presentation: February 10, 2023

 

 

Contents                            

780-43-22/Commentary: Africans Want Age Limits For Government Heads, A Survey Among 34 African Nations. 2

ASIA   19

Upgrades Eyed For Heatstroke Alerts, Public ‘Cooling Facilities’ 20

AFRICA.. 20

Nigerians Want Competitive Elections But Don’t Trust The Electoral Commission. 21

Ethiopians Grim After Two Years Of War 25

WEST EUROPE.. 27

British Streaming Market Shows Signs Of Recovery After A Turbulent Year 27

Three Years On And 45% Say Brexit Is Going Worse Than Expected. 30

Two In Three Britons Think The Worst Of The Cost-Of-Living Crisis Is Still To Come. 32

100 Days In, Rishi Sunak’s Ratings Are Lacklustre And He Has Failed To Salvage The Tory Brand. 34

Seven In Ten Britons Still Have A Negative View Of Politics. 38

Germans Rather Careless With Their Passwords. 40

The Travel Market In Italy Resumes Running Driven By The Online. 43

Anti-Immigration Sentiment Bubbling Up To Become A Major Political Issue In Ireland. 45

NORTH AMERICA.. 47

House Gets Younger, Senate Gets Older: A Look At The Age And Generation Of Lawmakers In The 118th Congress. 48

As Russian Invasion Nears One-Year Mark, Partisans Grow Further Apart On U.S. Support For Ukraine. 51

Americans' Dissatisfaction With Nation Eases, But Still High. 54

Americans Still Glum About State Of The Union In Most Areas. 57

Sports Gambling Growth Driven By Small Group Of Highly Engaged Sports Fans. 62

How Safe Do Women Feel In The Bogata. 65

AUSTRALIA.. 66

ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Up 9.6pts To 83.4 In January. 66

NSW Voting Intention: ALP Increased Their Lead Over The L-NP To End 2022: ALP 55% Cf. L-NP 45%... 69

MULTICOUNTRY STUDIES. 71

Support For A Two-State Solution Among Palestinians And Israelis Declines. 71

Africans Want Age Limits For Government Heads, A Survey Among 34 African Nations. 72

 


 

INTRODUCTORY NOTE

 

This weekly report consists of twenty-one surveys. The report includes two multi-country studies from different states across the globe.

 

780-43-22/Commentary: Africans Want Age Limits For Government Heads, A Survey Among 34 African Nations

Over the years, some policy actors have blamed aspects of African countries’ development challenges on the advanced ages of their leaders, though no theory or empirical evidence establishes such a relationship (Anoba, 2018; Sackey, 2021). The elections of Emmanuel Macron as president of France at age 39 (2017), Sebastian Kurz as chancellor of Austria at age 31 (2017), and Nayib Bukele as president of El Salvador at age 37 (2019) led some democracy watchers to wonder when Africa – the world’s youngest continent, with under35s making up about two-thirds of the population – will produce youthful presidents (Alim, 2019; Phekani, 2019). In all but one (Ethiopia) of the 28 African countries that chose presidents or prime ministers during the period 2018-2021, the winners were more than 50 years old (see Table A.2 in the Appendix for details). In 19 countries, the winners were above age 60, despite the participation of 27 under-50 candidates in those countries. As Nigeria prepares for elections in February 2023, the National Youths Union of Nigeria has reignited this discussion by calling on citizens to elect a president who is less than 60 years of age (Sahara Reporters, 2022). The 2019/2021 Afrobarometer Round 8 survey in 34 countries asked Africans whether they think their countries should have minimum and maximum age limits for heads of government, and if so, what these limits should be. Findings show that most Africans favour both minimum and maximum age limits for their leaders, though their views on what those limits should be vary greatly. Comparing the ages of incumbent leaders to citizens’ proposed age limits and to countries’ official retirement ages, we find that heads of government have exceeded average citizens’ maximum age limits in 15 of 34 countries, and have exceeded official retirement age in 23 countries. But citizens in 27 countries also tend to propose age limits for heads of state that exceed the official retirement age, suggesting that they aren’t opposed to retirement-age leaders.

Key findings § On average across 34 countries, three-quarters (76%) of Africans are in favour of a maximum age limit for heads of government. About the same percentage (74%) support minimum age limits for these chief public servants. o Maximum age limits have majority support in all surveyed countries, exceeding nine out of 10 citizens in Mali (95%), Benin (94%), and Senegal (90%). § Citizens’ views on what the minimum and maximum age limits should be vary widely. o For a minimum age limit, the mean across 34 countries is 39 years, ranging from a low of 34 years in Morocco to a high of 42 years in Ghana, Guinea, Namibia, and Tanzania. The modal (most frequently cited) proposed minimum across 34 countries is 40 years, ranging from 30 years in the Gambia and Morocco to 40 years in 29 out of the 34 countries. o For a maximum age limit, the mean across 34 countries is 66 years, ranging from 58 years in Morocco to 72 years in Zimbabwe. The modal maximum age is 70 across the 34 countries. § Compared against the mean and modal minimum age limits proposed by survey respondents, the heads of governments in all 34 countries were old enough to qualify for the office. However, assessed against the mean maximum age limits proposed by citizens, heads of government in 15 countries were too old at the time of the survey to occupy their positions. § The ages of incumbent heads of government at the time of the survey exceeded their countries’ official retirement ages in 23 of the 34 surveyed countries. § However, the mean maximum age limits proposed by citizens were higher than the official retirement age in 27 countries, suggesting that despite strong support for age limits, many citizens are quite generous with respect to how old their heads of government can be. Do Africans support age limits for heads of government2? Among the 34 countries that Afrobarometer surveyed in 2019/2021, 28 have constitutional provisions for a minimum age for presidents or prime ministers.3 In contrast, only two set a maximum age limit, while incumbents in two other countries, with the support of the legislatures, have managed to abolish age limits to allow them to seek additional terms.4 When citizens are asked directly, three-fourths of them say they think their constitutions should provide for both minimum age limits (74% on average across 34 countries) and maximum age limits (75%) for their heads of government (Figure 1).

Support for both types of age limits exceeds nine out of 10 citizens in Mali and Benin. It is weakest in Morocco and Eswatini, but even there half or more of all adults favour these limits. Countries expressing strong support for minimum age limits tend to do the same for maximum age limits. Eswatini and Lesotho are unusual in that in both countries, maximum age limits are 11 percentage points more popular than minimum age limits. Support for both types of age limits is strong across key demographic groups (Figure 2).

What should the age limits be? When respondents who favour minimum and maximum age limits for presidents or prime ministers are asked what they think those limits should be, they offer a wide range of suggestions. One way to examine the results is to look at the proportions of respondents who favour certain age limits (Figure 3). For minimum age limits, 40 years is the most popular or modal choice (20%), followed by 35 (11%), 30 (11%), 50 (9%), and 45 (8%). For a maximum, 70 years gets the most votes (i.e. is the modal value) (18%), followed by 60 (16%) and a variety of ages under 60 (15%). About one in 10 respondents who favour a maximum age limit suggest it be set at 80 years (9%).

All countries record a modal minimum age of 40 except Uganda, Kenya, and Cameroon, which has a modal minimum age of 35, and Morocco and the Gambia, with a modal minimum age of 30 (Figure 4). For the maximum age, 21 countries record 70 years as the most common response, while 60 years is the most common response in 11 countries.

Another way to summarise citizens’ preferences with regard to a maximum age limit is to look at what proportion is likely to endorse a given age as a maximum limit (Figure 5). This assumes that a person who supports a given maximum limit (e.g. 60 years) would also endorse a higher maximum (e.g. 75 years) as preferable to having no maximum at all. Thus, on average across 34 countries, while only 31% would set the maximum limit at 60 years, a majority (57%) would endorse a limit of 70 years.

Similarly, we can consider what proportion think a given age is too young to head a government. As shown in Figure 6, 73% of respondents would set the minimum age at 18 years or higher, and a majority (54%) would insist that a head of government be at least 35 years old. But only one in five (21%) would set the minimum age at 45 years or higher.

Finally, a third way to interpret the findings is to calculate mean minimum and maximum ages for each country (Figure 7). The mean age is the average of all the ages suggested by all respondents (excluding those who did not want a minimum or maximum age, respectively).

The mean (average) preferred minimum age across 34 countries is 39 years, very similar to the modal (most popular) minimum age of 40 years. The means of citizens’ proposed minimum age limits range from a low of 34 years in Morocco to a high of 42 years in Ghana, Guinea, Tanzania, and Namibia. The mean proposed minimum ages exceed 40 years in just seven countries. Across the 34 countries, the mean maximum age is 66 years. The mean maximums range from 58 years in Morocco to 72 years in Zimbabwe, with only six countries averaging 70 years or above. What proposed age limits imply for each country’s current leadership To examine what these proposed minimum and maximum ages would mean for current heads of government, we compare them to each leader’s age at the time of the Afrobarometer Round 8 survey. As we can see in Figure 8, the leader’s age exceeded the mean proposed minimum age in every country; the differences in years are detailed in Figure 9. For instance, President Paul Biya of Cameroon (the oldest) was 51 years older at the time of the survey than the country’s mean minimum age limit for a president, while Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali (the youngest) was 8 years older. Thus, considered against the mean minimum age limits suggested by citizens, all current heads of governments in the 34 countries would be old enough to qualify to occupy their positions. Heads of government are, however, older than the preferred maximum age in 15 countries, by margins ranging from one year (for President Ali Bongo Ondimba of Gabon) to 22 years (for President Biya of Cameroon) (Figure 10).

Does support for maximum age limits signal rejection of gerontocracy? We have established strong public support for instituting maximum age limits for heads of government and seen that 15 incumbents had surpassed the mean preferred maximum at the time of the Round 8 surveys. Do these findings signal that Africans reject gerontocracy? We explore this question by comparing countries’ mean preferred maximum age limits and incumbents’ ages at the time of the survey to the countries’ mandatory ages of retirement from active public service,5 as displayed in Figure 11.

At the time of our surveys, 23 heads of government were older than their country’s official retirement age. Margins range from one year (for Ali Bongo of Gabon, Julius Maada Bio of Sierra Leone, and the late John Magufuli of Tanzania) to 28 years for Cameroon’s Biya (Figure 12).

Significantly, in 27 countries, the mean proposed maximum age limits for heads of government are higher than the official retirement ages. Differences range from one year in Angola to 28 years in Cameroon (Figure 13). In only five countries do the official retirement

ages exceed the average preferred maximum age limits for heads of government – Lesotho, Morocco, Sudan, Ethiopia, and South Africa. These findings indicate that citizens are quite generous with their proposed maximum age limits. Africans’ support for age limits for heads of government does not appear to signal a rejection of older leaders.

Conclusion Survey findings show that a large majority of Africans in 34 countries support the institution of minimum and maximum age limits for heads of government, though their suggested age limits vary widely. In most countries, the mean preferred maximum age is higher than the country’s official retirement age, suggesting that people are willing to let their heads of government serve until an older age – but not indefinitely.

(Afrobarometer)

1 February 2023

Source: https://www.afrobarometer.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/AD599-PAP21-Africans-want-age-limits-but-not-opposed-to-retirement-age-leaders-Afrobarometer-Pan-Africa-Profile-31jan23.pdf

 

SUMMARY OF POLLS

ASIA

(Japan)

Upgrades Eyed For Heatstroke Alerts, Public ‘Cooling Facilities’

The central government is planning legal revisions that will upgrade the special alert system for heatstroke and promote the use of public “cooling facilities” during extremely hot weather. The Japan Meteorological Agency said the number of extremely hot days—when temperatures hit 35 degrees or higher--has increased notably since the 1990s. For three consecutive years from 2018, the number of people who died from heatstroke in Japan exceeded 1,000. According to an Environment Ministry survey conducted last year, 125, or 21 percent, of the 592 responding municipalities said they have such cooling facilities.

(Asahi Shimbun)

February 2, 2023

 

AFRICA

(Nigeria)

Nigerians Want Competitive Elections But Don’t Trust The Electoral Commission.

A majority of Nigerians believe that elections are the best method to choose their leaders, according to the latest Afrobarometer survey. But as they approach their presidential election in February, fewer than one-fourth of citizens say they trust the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). Most Nigerians (71%) support elections as the best way to choose their leaders. A similarly clear majority (69%) say Nigeria needs many political parties to ensure that voters have a real choice, a 13-percentage-point rebound from 2020.

(NOI Polls)

February 3, 2023

 

(Ethiopia)

Ethiopians Grim After Two Years Of War

The war between Ethiopian and Tigrayan forces may have ended, but the struggle is far from over for most Ethiopians. Battered by two years of war, COVID-19 and rising food costs, Ethiopians surveyed at the tail end of the war in 2022 found themselves in the grimmest situation in more than a decade. When asked to rate their lives today on a scale of 0 to 10, Ethiopians' average rating dropped from 4.5 in 2020 to just 3.6 today, the lowest rating since Gallup began tracking this metric in Ethiopia in 2012. This is well below the 2021 average worldwide (5.3) as well as in sub-Saharan Africa (4.5).

(Gallup)

FEBRUARY 2, 2023

 

WEST EUROPE

(UK)

British Streaming Market Shows Signs Of Recovery After A Turbulent Year

Between September to December 2022, the number of VoD-enabled households that subscribed to at least one video streaming service in Great Britain rose to 16.24 million, up +55k, quarter on quarter, representing 56% of households. 5% of British households took out a new streaming subscription during the final quarter of the year, down from 6% a year earlier. Apple TV+ saw its highest-ever subscriber satisfaction score for ‘quality of the shows’, beating out Netflix and Disney.

(Kantar)

30 January 2023

 

Three Years On And 45% Say Brexit Is Going Worse Than Expected

A new poll by Ipsos, conducted three years on since Britain formally left the European Union, finds 45% think that Brexit is going worse than they expected, up from 28% in June 2021. This includes two in three (66%) 2016 Remain voters saying it has gone worse (+19 since June 2021), and one in four (26%) 2016 Leave voters thinking the same (+16). Almost one in ten (9%) say it is working out better than expected (-6), while two in five (39%) think it is meeting their expectations (-7).

(Ipsos MORI)

31 January 2023

 

100 Days In, Rishi Sunak’s Ratings Are Lacklustre And He Has Failed To Salvage The Tory Brand

Rishi Sunak celebrates his hundredth day in office tomorrow. Tories have placed their hopes in Sunak to turn the party’s fortunes around after the disastrous Truss ministry and the scandal-ridden Johnson government. Since Sunak has taken over, the polls have stabilized and the Labour lead has narrowed, but nevertheless a significant gap of 20 points remains. Looking more specifically at 2019 Conservative voters, while it seems that Sunak has brought many of those who Truss lost back into the fold, there is no improvement on the party’s situation at the time Boris Johnson’s tenure came to an end.

(YouGov UK)

February 01, 2023

 

Seven In Ten Britons Still Have A Negative View Of Politics

In February 2022, in the aftermath of the investigation into allegations of rule-breaking social gatherings at Downing Street, YouGov asked Britons about the state of politics in the UK. The results were overwhelmingly pessimistic, with 73% of Britons taking a negative view. By June of last year that had fallen slightly to 66%, but our newly released poll shows that as of December it had returned to near-Partygate levels, at 71%.

(YouGov UK)

February 02, 2023

 

(Germany)

Germans Rather Careless With Their Passwords

Today, February 1st, is Change Your Password Day. On this occasion, YouGov, in cooperation with Statista, asked the Germans what their password security was like. It is noticeable that regularly updating or changing the passwords for their most important logins, such as e-mail or banking, is not really an issue. Respondents in Germany are most likely to say that they change their passwords to their most important accounts infrequently and not at the same time for different services (27 percent). 18 percent say they change them less than once a year.

(YouGov Germany)

February 01, 2023

 

(Italy)

The Travel Market In Italy Resumes Running Driven By The Online

Looking at the behavior of Italian tourists, the survey carried out by BVA Doxa clearly shows the growing digitization of the journey also on the demand side. The online channel prevails for inspiration: 56% of travelers declare that they have used only online channels (search engines in over one out of two cases, followed by review sites, accommodation and transport aggregators and comparison sites and, lastly, of accommodation providers).

(BVA Doxa)

February 03, 2023

 

(Ireland)

Anti-Immigration Sentiment Bubbling Up To Become A Major Political Issue In Ireland

Nearly a third of Irish people (34%) disagree with the statement “Irish people welcome refugees on the whole, it’s just far-right activists opposing refugees settling in local communities”, suggesting that anti-refugee sentiment certainly goes farther than a small minority. Almost half of all Irish adults (45%) would not support the government using new powers to install modular homes for Ukrainian refugees, without planning permission in their area.

(RedC Research)

January 30, 2023

 

NORTH AMERICA

(USA)

House Gets Younger, Senate Gets Older: A Look At The Age And Generation Of Lawmakers In The 118th Congress

The U.S. House of Representatives is getting younger – at least a bit – while the Senate’s median age continues to rise, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of the newly installed 118th Congress. The median age of voting House lawmakers is 57.9 years, down from 58.9 in the 117th Congress (2021-22), 58.0 in the 116th (2019-20) and 58.4 in the 115th (2017-18). The new Senate’s median age, on the other hand, is 65.3 years, up from 64.8 in the 117th Congress, 63.6 in the 116th and 62.4 in the 115th.

(PEW)

JANUARY 30, 2023

 

As Russian Invasion Nears One-Year Mark, Partisans Grow Further Apart On U.S. Support For Ukraine

The share of adults who say the U.S. is providing too much aid to Ukraine has increased 6 percentage points since last September and 19 points since shortly after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine last year, according to a Pew Research Center survey conducted Jan. 18-24 among 5,152 U.S. adults. This shift in opinion is mostly attributable to the growing share of Republicans who say the U.S. is providing too much support to Ukraine. Today, 40% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents hold this view, up from 32% in the fall and much higher than the 9% who held this view in March of last year.

(PEW)

JANUARY 31, 2023

 

Americans' Dissatisfaction With Nation Eases, But Still High

Continuing a two-decade trend, most Americans remain dissatisfied with the way things are going in the U.S. -- 23% say they are satisfied, and 76% are dissatisfied. Forty-eight percent, the largest group, are “very dissatisfied,” but that figure has dropped from the record-high 66% measured in January 2021. Americans’ intense dissatisfaction eased last year, to 51%, and inched down further this year.

(Gallup)

JANUARY 31, 2023

 

Americans Still Glum About State Of The Union In Most Areas

The overall quality of life in the country (65%) and the opportunity for a person to get ahead by working hard (61%) are the only two societal dimensions of eight measured in this year’s Mood of the Nation poll that a majority of Americans view positively. Close to half of Americans today are satisfied with the influence of organized religion, while satisfaction drops to a third for the size and power of the federal government as well as the U.S. system of government and how it works.

(Gallup)

FEBRUARY 2, 2023

 

Sports Gambling Growth Driven By Small Group Of Highly Engaged Sports Fans

Just 8% of Americans have placed an official bet on a live sporting event online. Even fewer have bet on a live event in-person (4%) or on an esports event in either fashion (3%). Sports bettors are more likely to be male, younger, and wealthier. The most popular league to bet on among sports bettors is the NFL (59%). Other popular leagues and sports to bet on include the NBA (34%), NCAA football (30%), NCAA basketball (26%), MLB (26%), and horse racing (25%).

(Ipsos USA)

1 February 2023

 

(Colombia)

How Safe Do Women Feel In The Bogata

The police put into operation a special command made up of 500 women to prevent and report cases of violence against women. A day 87 women in Bogotá are victims of violence, this crime is increasing.2022 closed with 20% more cases, which is why the capital created the purple command."In all the stations you will find a woman with this purple patrol button where you can file a complaint, we still have our hotlines 155 and 123."

(CNC)

February 01, 2023

 

AUSTRALIA

(New Zealand)

ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Up 9.6pts To 83.4 In January

New Zealand Consumer Confidence jumped 9 points in January to 83.4, more than undoing its December fall. The lift was driven by the forward-looking questions. However, the level is still far below the neutral level of 100 last reached in September 2021. The net proportion of people who believe it is a good time to buy a major household item, a key retail indicator, lifted 5 points to -28% with 25% (up 1ppt) of New Zealanders saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ a major household item compared to 53% (down 4ppts) saying now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

(Roy Morgan)

February 03, 2023

 

(Australia)

NSW Voting Intention: ALP Increased Their Lead Over The L-NP To End 2022: ALP 55% Cf. L-NP 45%

The latest Roy Morgan Poll on State voting intention in New South Wales shows the ALP on 55% (up 3% points since November) well ahead of the Liberal-National Coalition on 45% (down 3% points) on a two-party preferred basis. The ALP and Liberal-National Coalition both lost support to minor parties and independents in December with the L-NP down 3.5% points to 33.5% and now level with the ALP on 33.5% (down 1.5% points).

(Roy Morgan)

January 31, 2023

 

MULTICOUNTRY STUDIES

Support For A Two-State Solution Among Palestinians And Israelis Declines

A Joint Poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in Ramallah and the International Program in Conflict Resolution and Mediation at Tel Aviv University. Slightly more Israeli Jews support one unequal state under Israeli rule than the two-state solution; but both publics still prefer two states to any other democratic framework for resolving the conflict.

(Arabbarometer)

January 30, 2023

Source: https://www.arabbarometer.org/2023/01/12419/

 

Africans Want Age Limits For Government Heads, A Survey Among 34 African Nations

On average across 34 countries, three-quarters (76%) of Africans are in favour of a maximum age limit for heads of government. About the same percentage (74%) support minimum age limits for these chief public servants. Maximum age limits have majority support in all surveyed countries, exceeding nine out of 10 citizens in Mali (95%), Benin (94%), and Senegal (90%).  Citizens’ views on what the minimum and maximum age limits should be vary widely.

(Afrobarometer)

1 February 2023

Source: https://www.afrobarometer.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/AD599-PAP21-Africans-want-age-limits-but-not-opposed-to-retirement-age-leaders-Afrobarometer-Pan-Africa-Profile-31jan23.pdf

 

ASIA

780-43-01/Polls

Upgrades Eyed For Heatstroke Alerts, Public ‘Cooling Facilities’

The central government is planning legal revisions that will upgrade the special alert system for heatstroke and promote the use of public “cooling facilities” during extremely hot weather.

The new special alert will be issued based mainly on surges in the heat index, which takes into account temperatures and humidity levels, and experts’ opinions.

The government will submit a bill to amend the climate change adaptation law to include new measures to prevent heatstroke.

If passed, the law will take effect from summer 2024.

Local governments will designate certain air-conditioned places as cooling facilities, such as government buildings, public centers, libraries and shopping malls.

If the new special alert is issued, the public can take shelter from the heat at these designated facilities.

“We want to publicize (the cooling facilities) among households who do not have air conditioning and elderly people who are at risk of developing severe heatstroke symptoms,” an Environment Ministry official said.

According to a Cabinet Office survey, about 10 percent of households in Japan do not have air conditioning.

The Japan Meteorological Agency said the number of extremely hot days—when temperatures hit 35 degrees or higher--has increased notably since the 1990s.

Last year, central Tokyo observed nine straight extremely hot days from June 25.

Other locations in the country also baked under high temperatures from late June to early July.

For three consecutive years from 2018, the number of people who died from heatstroke in Japan exceeded 1,000.

The existing alert system was established in 2020 by the Environment Ministry and the JMA. It is issued when the heat index is expected to top 33.

The JMA splits the country into 58 forecast areas. When the alert is issued, residents in the area affected are urged to use air conditioners.

The alert was issued 889 times last summer, including 10 times in Tokyo and 13 times in Osaka Prefecture.

Some local governments have already secured cooling facilities, but it has not become a common practice yet.

According to an Environment Ministry survey conducted last year, 125, or 21 percent, of the 592 responding municipalities said they have such cooling facilities.

(Asahi Shimbun)

February 2, 2023

Source: https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/14830033

 

AFRICA

780-43-02/Polls

Nigerians Want Competitive Elections But Don’t Trust The Electoral Commission.

A majority of Nigerians believe that elections are the best method to choose their leaders, according to the latest Afrobarometer survey. But as they approach their presidential election in February, fewer than one-fourth of citizens say they trust the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

Large majorities of survey respondents say that multiple political parties are needed to provide voters a genuine choice and that once elections are over, the losing side should accept defeat and work with the government to help the nation flourish.

While a majority of citizens believe that the last national election in 2019 was generally free and fair, popular trust in the INEC – the institution responsible for ensuring a free and fair election – is declining.

Key findings

  • Most Nigerians (71%) support elections as the best way to choose their leaders           (Figure 1).
  • A similarly clear majority (69%) say Nigeria needs many political parties to ensure that voters have a real choice, a 13-percentage-point rebound from 2020 (Figure 2).
  • More than three-fourths (78%) of respondents say that once an election is over, the losing side should accept defeat and cooperate with the government to help it develop the country, rather than monitoring and criticising it (Figure 3).
  • A majority (56%) of respondents say the last national election, in 2019, was generally free and fair, but almost four in 10 (38%) believe otherwise (Figure 4).
  • Only 23% of Nigerians say they trust the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) “somewhat” or “a lot,” while more than three-fourths (78%) express “just a little” or no trust at all in the election-management body (Figure 5).
    • Trust in the INEC has declined by 12 percentage points since 2017 (Figure 6).

Afrobarometer surveys

Afrobarometer is a pan-African, non-partisan survey research network that provides reliable data on African experiences and evaluations of democracy, governance, and quality of life. Eight survey rounds in up to 39 countries have been completed since 1999. Round 9 surveys (2021/2023) are currently underway. Afrobarometer’s national partners conduct face-to-face interviews in the language of the respondent’s choice.

The Afrobarometer team in Nigeria, led by NOIPolls, interviewed a nationally representative sample of 1,600 adult citizens in March 2022. A sample of this size yields country-level results with a margin of error of +/-2.5 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. Previous surveys were conducted in Nigeria in 2000, 2003, 2005, 2008, 2013, 2015, 2017, and 2020.

Charts

Figure 1: Support for elections as the best way to choose leaders | Nigeria                      | 2003-2022

Respondents were asked: Which of the following statements is closest to your view?

Statement 1: We should choose our leaders in this country through regular, open, and honest elections.

Statement 2: Since elections sometimes produce bad results, we should adopt other methods for choosing this country’s leaders.

(% who “agree” or “strongly agree” with each statement)

Figure 2: Support for multiparty competition | Nigeria | 2003-2022

Respondents were asked: Which of the following statements is closest to your view?

Statement 1: Political parties create division and confusion; it is therefore unnecessary to have many political parties in Nigeria.

Statement 2: Many political parties are needed to make sure that Nigerians have real choices in who governs them.

(% who “agree” or “strongly agree” with each statement)

Figure 3: Role of opposition parties after elections | Nigeria | 2015-2022

Respondents were asked: Which of the following statements is closest to your view?

Statement 1: After losing an election, opposition parties should monitor and criticise the government in order to hold it accountable.

Statement 2: Once an election is over, opposition parties and politicians should accept defeat and cooperate with government to help it develop the country.

(% who “agree” or “strongly agree” with each statement)

Figure 4: Freeness and fairness of 2019 election | Nigeria | 2022

Respondents were asked: On the whole, how would you rate the freeness and fairness of the last national election, held in 2019?

Figure 5: Popular trust in the electoral commission and other state institutions                  | Nigeria | 2022

Respondents were asked: How much do you trust each of the following, or haven’t you heard enough about them to say?

Figure 6: Trust the electoral commission somewhat/a lot | Nigeria | 2000-2022           

Respondents were asked: How much do you trust each of the following, or haven’t you heard enough about them to say: The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC)? (% who say “somewhat” or “a lot”)

(NOI Polls)

February 3, 2023

Source: https://noi-polls.com/trust-in-electoral-commission/

 

780-43-03/Polls

Ethiopians Grim After Two Years Of War

The war between Ethiopian and Tigrayan forces may have ended, but the struggle is far from over for most Ethiopians. Battered by two years of war, COVID-19 and rising food costs, Ethiopians surveyed at the tail end of the war in 2022 found themselves in the grimmest situation in more than a decade.

While unable to access the Tigray region because of the conflict, the latest Gallup study conducted throughout the rest of Ethiopia in the fall of 2022 found a record-high 65% of Ethiopians reporting they struggled to afford food in the past year.

The World Food Programme estimates that food prices in Ethiopia were up 43% in April 2022 compared with April 2021, while the cost of certain staples, like vegetable oil, have soared over 80%. Ethiopia, which is the second-most-populous nation in Africa, is also facing its worst drought in 40 years, according to United Nations officials. The situation is almost certainly worse in the Tigray region, which faced a blockade of many essential goods including food, medicine and humanitarian aid throughout the course of the conflict.

The rising cost of food is exacerbated by pressure on income as well. In 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic and the war, 28% of Ethiopians felt that it was “very difficult” for them to get by on their present household income. Today, that number has climbed to 45%. With economic growth falling below 4% in 2022 (compared with an average of 9.7% between 2010 and 2018), workers will continue to be hard-pressed to make ends meet.

Ethiopians’ Ratings of Their Lives Continue to Fall

Although Ethiopians have rated their present lives lower than the global average for the past decade, their evaluations have dropped dramatically since 2020.

When asked to rate their lives today on a scale of 0 to 10, Ethiopians' average rating dropped from 4.5 in 2020 to just 3.6 today, the lowest rating since Gallup began tracking this metric in Ethiopia in 2012. This is well below the 2021 average worldwide (5.3) as well as in sub-Saharan Africa (4.5).

The headwinds facing the country may also have exacted a toll on Ethiopians’ emotional health. In October 2020, after the emergence of COVID-19 but before the outbreak of war, 28% of Ethiopians reported feeling worried during a lot of the day. By the fall of 2022, that number had risen to 41%. Reported levels of physical pain, anger and stress also increased during this period.

Implications

Ethiopia faces a monumental task in rebuilding and reconciliation in the wake of the conflict there. The widespread humanitarian crisis in the Tigray region, accompanied by growing pressures throughout the rest of the country, places a large burden on the government to not only wind down and recover from years of war in the north, but to help spur growth and stability throughout the country.

Yet despite the headwinds, there has been some positive news in recent weeks. The cessation of hostilities has allowed the U.N. and other agencies greater access to provide humanitarian relief to Tigray, including more than 3,000 trucks of food and medical supplies since the war ended.

The national government has also attempted to normalize relationships with the global community, including the attendance of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed at the U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit that took place in Washington in December. This meeting laid the groundwork for improved U.S.-Ethiopia relations, including the nomination of a new ambassador to Addis Ababa, a position that has been vacant since last January.

(Gallup)

FEBRUARY 2, 2023

Source: https://news.gallup.com/poll/468992/ethiopians-grim-two-years-war.aspx

 

WEST EUROPE

780-43-04/Polls

British Streaming Market Shows Signs Of Recovery After A Turbulent Year

Kantar Worldpanel’s Entertainment on Demand study in Great Britain uncovers the following behaviours within the Video on Demand (VoD) market between September to December 2022:

GB EoD Q4 2022 chart

Prime Video drives the market back to growth off the back of rising Prime membership

After a period of 12 months, when one million British households dropped out of the SVoD market, the final quarter of 2022 brought some relief, with the sector returning to growth.

Dominic Sunnebo, Global Insight Director, Kantar, Worldpanel Division, comments, “Prime Video had a strong final quarter of the year, with an increasing number of households taking out Prime memberships and using the Prime delivery service in the run-up to the Christmas holidays. With an influx of subscriptions, Prime Video managed to hold its conversion rate steady, with 61% of Prime members using the service.”

Disney+ struggles to uphold subscriber advocacy

Disney+ has had an exceptional year in Britain and managed to maintain its subscriber growth through Q4, albeit at a slower rate. It overtook Netflix earlier in the year in Net Promoter Score, a measure of subscriber advocacy, however, in Q4, Netflix drew level again as Disney+ suffered from a drop in this measure. Disney+ subscriber satisfaction with the number of new release films dropped to its lowest point throughout the year.

Paramount+ reduces reliance on Sky due to steady subscription rise

The recently launched Paramount+ service continues to draw in new subscribers, achieving 7.6% share of new sign-ups in the latest quarter. This signals that direct-to-consumer sales are increasing, reducing

Paramount+’s reliance on the Sky Cinema partnership. The Star Trek offerings on Paramount+, as well as global hit Yellowstone, were key draws to the service. However, subscriber recommendation of the service remains low, and overall subscribers rate the quality of shows significantly below competitors.

Discovery+ has something of the opposite challenge of Paramount+; it is managing to rapidly increase subscriber satisfaction levels but struggling to accelerate growth in numbers. Discovery+ subscribers are increasingly satisfied with the amount of original content on offer as well as the quality of the shows, which has translated into a consistent drop in planned and actual cancellation of the service.

Netflix ad-tier strategy appeals to new subscribers, but existing subscribers unconvinced

Netflix launched its ad-supported tier in Britain in November, as part of a strategy to turn around subscriber losses and bolster profit at the American giant. The new tier, Netflix Basic with ads, reduced the entry price from £6.99 to £4.99. Early data from Kantar Worldpanel EoD shows around 4% of existing Netflix subscribers downgraded to the new, cheaper, ad-supported tier during December, whilst just under one in five new subscribers chose the ad-supported tier. However, there was no big bump in subscriptions as a result of the launch. Netflix held 7.5% share of new subscribers in Q4 2022, indicating the £2 monthly price saving is not going to be enough to drive a significant new wave of Netflix subscribers in Britain.

GB EoD Q4 WED vs WL resized

Adams Family spin-off drives Netflix engagement

Despite a muted response in Great Britain to its ad supported price plan, Netflix hit Wednesday, an Adams Family spin-off starring Jenna Ortega and Catherine Zeta-Jones, dominated the most enjoyed content during December, with 16% of all VoD subscribers citing it as their most enjoyed title. One in 10 new Netflix subscribers in December specifically cited Wednesday as their reason for signing up. This was followed by

The Crown on Netflix and Andor on Disney+. NOW sleeper hit, The White Lotus, was the 3rd most enjoyed title over the quarter. The Harry & Meghan documentary on Netflix jumped into 5th place in terms of most-enjoyed titles in December in Great Britain, in sharp contrast to the US where it was placed 95th, despite The Crown performing very strongly in the States. The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power continues to draw in new customers to Prime Video, with 15% of their new subscribers naming the hit show as their reason for signing up.

(Kantar)

30 January 2023

Source: https://www.kantar.com/inspiration/technology/british-streaming-market-shows-signs-of-recovery-after-a-turbulent-year

 

780-43-05/Polls

Three Years On And 45% Say Brexit Is Going Worse Than Expected

  • Greater control and pandemic response seen as the main benefits of Brexit, barriers to trade the main disadvantage
  • Trade and reducing illegal immigration are the public’s main priorities for Britain’s future relationship with the EU

A new poll by Ipsos, conducted three years on since Britain formally left the European Union, finds 45% think that Brexit is going worse than they expected, up from 28% in June 2021. This includes two in three (66%) 2016 Remain voters saying it has gone worse (+19 since June 2021), and one in four (26%) 2016 Leave voters thinking the same (+16).
Almost one in ten (9%) say it is working out better than expected (-6), while two in five (39%) think it is meeting their expectations (-7).

working out better or worse, or about the same as you expected? January 2023 Better / About the same as expected / Worse  Among all 9% 39% 45% Among 2016 leave voters 15% 56% 26% Among 2016 Remain voters 5% 26% 66%

Figures are similar when asked the impact Brexit has had on their daily life. Some 45% think leaving the EU has made it worse (unchanged since June 2022), against 37% stating it has made no difference (+3), and one in ten (11%) saying it has bettered their lives (-6).

When asked what the negative outcomes of Brexit are, increased barriers to trade between the UK and EU comes out on top, mentioned by two in five (40%), up 13 percentage points since last asked in March 2021. This is followed by three in ten saying the end of freedom of movement (30%, +5), and one in four citing less international cooperation between the UK and EU (26%, +7).

On the other hand, when asked about the positive outcomes, just over one in five either mention Britain gaining control over its laws and regulations (23%, unchanged), being able to respond to the Covid-19 pandemic better (22%, +1) or Britain being able to make its own decisions generally (21%, unchanged). However, around equal to this was one in four (24%) saying there are no positive outcomes (+4).

Britain’s future relationship with the European Union

Even three years on few believe that negotiations between the UK and the EU are over. Fewer than one in five (18%) say the relationship is now mostly decided and will hardly change over the next few years (18%, +4 since June 2021). In comparison, while nearly three in ten believe the broad outlines of a future relationship will not change much over the next few years but there remain important areas left to decide (28%, +5), over one in three opt for saying there are still many important issues to finalise which means lots more negotiations over the next few years (36%). However, the proportion believing there are many more negotiations to come has dropped from 45% in June 2021.

The overwhelming majority, 84%, think it’s important to maintain a close relationship with the EU (+6 since June 2022), against just one in ten (10%, -6) saying the opposite. However, opinion is more divided on whether this will happen, with just fewer than half saying it’s likely that Britain and the EU will have a close relationship (47%, +2) and a similar proportion saying it’s unlikely (41%, -4). Although public opinion has grown more optimistic since September 2020 (when 39% thought likely, against 49% unlikely).

When asked which two or three areas should be top priorities for Britain’s relationship with the EU, coming out first is improving the trade agreement to make it easier to buy and sell goods and services, mentioned by nearly two in five (37%, +4 since June 2022). This is followed by three in ten prioritising working with the EU to reduce illegal immigration (29%, +7), and one in four wanting close collaboration on preventing and detecting crime and terrorism (25%, +5).

Which two or three of these, if any, do you think should be the top priorities for the Britain’s relationship with the European Union? (percentage point change since June 2022)  Improving trade arrangements 37% +4 Working with EU to reduce illegal immigration 29% +7 Working with EU on prevention and detection of crime and terrorism 25% +5

While trade is a priority for both Leave and Remain voters alike (mentioned by 40% in each camp), 2016 Leave voters are more than twice as likely to prioritise working together to reduce illegal immigration (42% vs. 19%). Whereas 2016 Remain voters are three times as likely to cite making it easier for British citizens to study or work in the EU (23% vs. 7%).

Kelly Beaver MBE, CEO of Ipsos in the UK and Ireland, says of the findings:

Three years on, and against the backdrop of recent political and economic uncertainty, the public are pessimistic about the direction of the country, and doubts about Brexit are part of that. Britons have noticed that further negotiations may be needed, and whether they be a Brexiteer and Remainer, they want an improvement to our current trade agreement to make it easier to buy and sell with the EU. However, underlying differences between the rival camps still exist with Leave voters far more concerned about illegal immigration and Remain voters about the loss of freedom of movement .

(Ipsos MORI)

30 January 2023

Source: https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/three-years-and-45-percent-britons-say-brexit-going-worse-expected

 

780-43-06/Polls

Two In Three Britons Think The Worst Of The Cost-Of-Living Crisis Is Still To Come

  • Looking ahead to the rest of the year, economic optimism slightly improves – but little sign the Conservatives are benefitting

 As the IMF releases pessimistic forecasts for the UK economy, new polling from Ipsos reveals that 67% of Britons believe the worst of the cost of living crisis is still to come, while 27% think that its impact has already reached its peak. Younger people are particularly likely to think the worst is yet to come (80% of 18-34 year olds vs 56% of those aged 65+). When asked in March 2012 about the economic crisis, several years after 2008, 56% believed the worst was yet to come, and 41% that that crisis had reached its peak.

PeakTaking a long-term view over the next 12 months, 57% believe the economy will get worse, 24% better, and 16% stay the same, giving an Ipsos Economic Optimism Index of -33. Nevertheless, this is an improvement on last month (in December 2022, 69% felt the economy would get worse, and just 14% better), and is the best EOI score since last January. Again, pessimism is higher among young people (68% of 18-34s think the economy will get worse, compared with 41% of those aged 65+), and also among women (63% vs 51% of men).

EOIDespite this, when asked if they would be better off under a Conservative or Labour government, just 16% think they would be better off under the Conservatives, and 31% Labour – though even more, 46%, think there would be no difference. In September 2013 and 2014, the two parties were relatively level-pegging on this measure – although then economic optimism was much more positive than it is now.

BetteroffGideon Skinner, Head of Political Research at Ipsos, said:

Britons remain very worried about the cost of living, especially young people. However, looking further ahead the entrenched economic pessimism of the last year is showing signs of getting slightly less gloomy – but this isn’t as yet benefiting the Conservatives much, as people are twice as likely to think they would be better off under a Labour government (though even more think it would make no difference).

(Ipsos MORI)

31 January 2023

Source: https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/two-three-britons-think-worst-cost-living-crisis-still-come

 

780-43-07/Polls

100 Days In, Rishi Sunak’s Ratings Are Lacklustre And He Has Failed To Salvage The Tory Brand

Rishi Sunak celebrates his hundredth day in office tomorrow. Tories have placed their hopes in Sunak to turn the party’s fortunes around after the disastrous Truss ministry and the scandal-ridden Johnson government.

But YouGov data shows that he has so far failed in his task, with the Tories trailing Labour in the voting intention polls, and are seen as less competent to handle the big issues. Likewise, Sunak’s personal ratings, while in some areas better than those of his predecessors’, remain mediocre.

Voting intention has stabilised with Labour holding over a 20-point lead, and the Conservative brand has not seen any recovery

During Liz Truss’s time as prime minister the Conservatives plummeted in the headline voting intention polls, with Labour taking the largest lead over the party – 33 points – since YouGov was founded in 2000.

Since Sunak has taken over, the polls have stabilized and the Labour lead has narrowed, but nevertheless a significant gap of 20 points remains.

Looking more specifically at 2019 Conservative voters, while it seems that Sunak has brought many of those who Truss lost back into the fold, there is no improvement on the party’s situation at the time Boris Johnson’s tenure came to an end.

Sunak has not revitalized the Tory brand

The image of the Conservative Party also sunk during the tail end of the Johnson era and that of his short-lived successor, with positive perceptions of the party hitting very low levels. In fact, on all nine attributes about the Conservative party covered by our website trackers, more people now take a negative view of the party than a positive one.

On no attribute are perceptions now better than they were under Boris Johnson, and only on the sense of being “moderate” rather than “extreme” are they noticeably better than they were under Liz Truss.

Sunak performs better on competence and trustworthiness than his predecessors, although his scores are still poor

The prime minister’s personal favourability rating is comparatively better than those of his predecessors, sitting at -29 compared to Johnson’s final score of -40 and Truss’s rock bottom -70.

On some key measures Sunak as prime minister is also seen more favourably than both Truss and Johnson.

In particular, he is seen as competent by more of the public than both, albeit on a low score of 32% to Truss’s 21% and Johnson’s 23%.

Having pledged to restore trust in politics, Rishi Sunak is indeed considered more trustworthy than Boris Johnson, although that isn’t saying much – only 22% of Britons say the prime minister is trustworthy, compared to 11% for Johnson at the end of his tenure. (This question was not asked of Liz Truss in her short time in power)

However, Britons are no more likely to see Sunak as decisive than his predecessors (all scored within 23-27%), and less of the public see him as strong, with 19% saying so for Sunak, 23% for Truss and 30% for Johnson.

Sunak is seen as a bad prime minister, and has failed to show he can manage the issues that Britons see as important

Sunak is increasingly seen as a bad prime minister, with 56% of Britons saying so as of late January. While this is not as poor a score as Liz Truss (71%) or Boris Johnson (68%) received at the end of their tenures, Sunak is still a relative unknown compared to Johnson – the discrepancy between the number of people who say Johnson vs Sunak is a bad PM is explained purely by different rates of don’t know responses (7% vs 19%) rather than people being more likely to see him as a good prime minister (25% vs 26%).

Indeed, the number of Britons who would choose Rishi Sunak as their preferred prime minister over Keir Starmer stands at just 22% - around the level Boris Johnson experienced during 'partygate'.

Sunak came to power on a promise of competence, in contrast to the chaos that reigned under his predecessors, and to focus on the issues that matter to the public, including, among other things, “economic stability and confidence”, “a stronger NHS” and “control of our borders”.

But, when looking at how well the public think the government Sunak leads is handling key issues, overwhelming numbers say the government is badly managing the NHS (85%), immigration (79%) and the economy (76%).

Dissatisfaction with government handling of the NHS has only grown under Sunak, with the figure under Truss’s time in office ending on 80%, and under Johnson 76% saying so.

Immigration is on par with around eight in ten saying ‘badly’ under all three leaders (77% for Truss, 79% for Johnson). The economy was seen to be handled equally as poorly by Johnson (78%), but significantly worse by Truss and her government (87%).

Labour have taken the lead on policy competence in most areas

It’s not just that people think that Sunak and the Conservatives are handling these issues badly that is a concern for the party at the next general election, it is also the fact that people are starting to think the Labour party would handle them better.

The economy is an area that historically Conservatives have been trusted with over Labour: indeed for most of Johnson’s time in office he held public confidence in this area. But Labour are now seen by more Britons as better to handle the issue by 29% to 21%.

Similarly, until Truss Conservatives had held their position on being seen as the better party to handle immigration, but again Labour now hold the lead (by 23% to 18%). And whilst Labour has historically been seen as the better party to handle the NHS, the distance between the parties has grown, with 40% saying Labour and just 13% saying Conservatives.

(YouGov UK)

February 01, 2023

Source: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2023/02/01/100-days-rishi-sunaks-ratings-are-lacklustre-and-h

 

780-43-08/Polls

Seven In Ten Britons Still Have A Negative View Of Politics

After a tumultuous year in politics saw two prime ministers ousted, a disastrous mini-budget and the start of many public sector strikes, YouGov research reviews the state of politics according to the British public

In February 2022, in the aftermath of the investigation into allegations of rule-breaking social gatherings at Downing Street, YouGov asked Britons about the state of politics in the UK.

The results were overwhelmingly pessimistic, with 73% of Britons taking a negative view. By June of last year that had fallen slightly to 66%, but our newly released poll shows that as of December it had returned to near-Partygate levels, at 71%.

Tory voters are less likely than their Labour counterparts to hold a negative view of the state of politics, but in both cases a solid majority are pessimistic (63% and 85% respectively).

Just 7% of Britons have a positive view of politics, including 12% of Conservative voters and 2% of Labour supporters.

Who is responsible for the state of politics?

The public maintain that the prime minister (82%) and the government (83%) hold a great deal or fair amount of responsibility in how politics operates in Britain; this view has declined slightly from 87% in the case of the former and 89% in the case of the latter since February last year.

Likewise, a large majority of people (76%) continue to think that ‘all politicians’ have a great or fair amount of responsibility for how politics operates, down slightly from 83% in February. Most Britons (56%) also hold civil servants accountable for how politics currently operates, itself down from 65% at the beginning of last year.

Today’s politicians are still viewed negatively

Around half think that today’s politicians from all parties are generally less honest (54%), more corrupt (48%), are less likely to work for the country’s best interests (53%), improve matters for people (52%) or work for the country’s best interests (53%) than those of the past.

A further third think there is little change between today’s and former politicians across these five metrics, whilst 5% or less think things have improved.

Those Britons with a positive view of the current state of politics in Britain tend to think that today’s politicians are no different from those of years gone by (50-63% say so across each measure). Most of those with a negative view of politics say that today’s politicians are worse (59-65%).

(YouGov UK)

February 02, 2023

Source: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2023/02/02/seven-ten-britons-still-have-negative-view-politic

 

780-43-09/Polls

Germans Rather Careless With Their Passwords

Recent YouGov poll with Statista about changing passwords

Today, February 1st, is Change Your Password Day. On this occasion, YouGov, in cooperation with Statista, asked the Germans what their password security was like. It is noticeable that regularly updating or changing the passwords for their most important logins, such as e-mail or banking, is not really an issue. Respondents in Germany are most likely to say that they change their passwords to their most important accounts infrequently and not at the same time for different services (27 percent). 18 percent say they change them less than once a year.

On the other hand, 12 percent say that they never change their passwords at all. Women make this statement slightly more often than men (13 vs. 10 percent). The age comparison shows that respondents from GenZ, i.e. those aged 18 to 24, are the most negligent: 21 percent of them state that they never change their most important passwords (vs. 9 percent of those over 55). These are results of a YouGov survey in cooperation with Statista.

how often are passwords changed

 

Passwords are the most common ones to come up with

Three out of five people in Germany (61 percent) state that they think up their passwords themselves. Women say this remarkably more often than men (67 vs. 55 percent). 17 percent of all respondents use a specific password and exchange only one or more characters for each new account/website. One in ten (9 percent) uses a password creator from the Internet. 5 percent do not create their own passwords, but use the same ones their partners or family members use.

Create passwords like

 

Memorize instead of manage - Half of Germans do not use a password manager

When asked whether they use a password manager for at least some of their passwords, every second person surveyed in Germany (49 percent) stated that they do not do so and do not intend to do so in the future. One in four (25 percent), on the other hand, currently uses such a password manager. Here, too, men are pioneers (28 vs. 22 percent of women). 16 percent of all respondents state that they intend to use a password manager in the future.

Password manager

 

(YouGov Germany)

February 01, 2023

Source: https://yougov.de/topics/technology/articles-reports/2023/02/01/deutsche-eher-nachlassig-mit-ihren-passwortern

 

780-43-10/Polls

The Travel Market In Italy Resumes Running Driven By The Online

On the occasion of the "Travel Innovation Day - Travel takes off again: digital at the controls", a conference of the Digital Innovation Observatory in Tourism of the School of Management of the Milan Polytechnic, BVA Doxa presented some data on the Digital Journey of the Italian tourist.

THE MARKET CONTEXT - eCommerce drives the recovery of the Italian tourism market: the hospitality sector in 2022 exceeds the last pre-pandemic survey (€16.4 billion against 14.6) while the transport sector is close to breakeven (€11.2 billion against 12). Organized tourism is also restarting: the tour operating market in 2022 is worth 70% of what it invoiced in 2019 and the travel agency sector stands at -19% on the pre-pandemic

DIGITAL JOURNEY – Looking at the behavior of Italian tourists, the survey carried out by BVA Doxa clearly shows the growing digitization of the journey also on the demand side. The online channel prevails for inspiration: 56% of travelers declare that they have used only online channels (search engines in over one out of two cases, followed by review sites, accommodation and transport aggregators and comparison sites and, lastly, of accommodation providers).

Even in the booking phase, online is the master: for accommodation, the share of those who have used exclusively online channels reaches 59% , while for transport 63% . Furthermore, 22% of travelers turn to a travel agency or consultant to acquire information or book a holiday.

The number of travelers who purchased products linked to the location visited via eCommerce also continues to grow, representing 33% of the total, against 12% in 2019 and 9% in 2018 . The offer is also adapting to the growing demand for neverending experiences , i.e. tourist experiences extended in time and space: 12% of accommodation facilities offer their customers the opportunity to purchase products of the destination (food and wine, handicrafts, etc.) through eCommerce.

SUSTAINABILITY, FLEXIBILITY AND HOLIDAY WORKING – While sustainability is a topic on the agenda for almost all the players in the offer (in the hospitality sector alone, 82% of the structures have activated actions for the use of low-cost products environmental impact , 78% for the reduction of waste ) the interest among travelers is not yet pervasive. In fact, only 19% of tourists sought information on the environmental sustainability of services before booking and 20% selected service providers using sustainability as a criterion.

The offer of solutions based on flexibility is also growing, an increasingly important aspect for the traveller, which concerns both bookings and payments. In fact, the flexible rate was used by 34% of travelers to book accommodation and by 23% for transport, while 14% of travelers used installment payments to purchase travel-related services.

Lastly, holiday working is confirmed as a significant trend for the development of destinations: 17% of Italians declared that they had worked remotely from a holiday resort in the central six months of 2022. In confirmation of this trend, almost half of the accommodation facilities (49%) declare that they have hosted customers who have done smart working at the facility.

(BVA Doxa)

February 03, 2023

Source: https://www.bva-doxa.com/il-mercato-dei-viaggi-in-italia-riprende-a-correre-trainato-dallonline/

 

780-43-11/Polls

Anti-Immigration Sentiment Bubbling Up To Become A Major Political Issue In Ireland

Céad mile fáilte, a hundred thousand welcomes.  The average Irish citizen is justifiably proud of the renowned welcoming nature of the Irish to visitors and those who have come to make their life here.

This welcoming nature, our own history of emigration, coupled with the fact that Ireland simply wasn’t a major destination for immigrants in the past, has meant that unlike in the UK, immigration has never been a major political issue come elections here.  That’s not to say it hasn’t featured at all, but other factors such as health and the economy have been far more important to most.

There are signs in today’s poll that this may be beginning to change, as several factors align to create a situation that is driving rising scrutiny of Ireland’s immigration policies and the impact they may have on local communities, and possibly anti-refugee sentiment overall.

Firstly, the war in Ukraine has meant that there is a much larger number of refugees seeking assistance.  The need to look after those fleeing from the war in Ukraine has generally been accepted and supported by the Irish population up to now.

Secondly, the UK has got a lot tougher on inward immigration, and this has pushed some of those seeking refuge in the UK to turn their attention to Ireland, where it’s potentially easier to come to.

Thirdly, we are in the middle of a housing crisis, with a lack of affordable housing and availability that is driving real anger among a section of the electorate most impacted.  The lack of housing also means the government is being forced into using unusual solutions to try and house incoming refugees.  Hotels in tourist areas and unused office spaces are being used to accommodate refugees, often at short notice, in a way that perhaps hadn’t been done for those in Ireland struggling to find a place to live.

All of these factors coming together are creating a perfect storm, with a lack of housing, and the pressure to accommodate a rising number of refugees, impacting on the Irish people’s usual welcoming nature, as refugees have arrived on mass without much notice to the local residents.

While many would like to blame this on right wing groups, and it is clear they have been stoking the fire among local communities, it’s also apparent that this attitude is not isolated to them.  Nearly a third of Irish people (34%) disagree with the statement “Irish people welcome refugees on the whole, it’s just far-right activists opposing refugees settling in local communities”, suggesting that anti-refugee sentiment certainly goes farther than a small minority.

Levels of disagreement are highest among those in society who are more under pressure, those with less income in more deprived areas, the less well educated, and crucially those that currently plan to vote for Sinn Féin.

At the same time, almost half of all Irish adults (45%) would not support the government using new powers to install modular homes for Ukrainian refugees, without planning permission in their area.

While you may think this is to do with the lack of planning, that is not strictly the case.  When we asked the same question about the government using new powers to install modular homes for people on housing waiting lists, without planning permission in their local area, this is much more strongly supported (63%) with only 27% opposing.

Finally, only just over 2 in 5 adults across the country think the government is doing a good job dealing with the refugee crisis, with almost a half (49%) making it plain they think they are doing a bad job.

Whatever you think of the rights and wrongs of ensuring we provide for those in need, it’s also clear that the lack of consultation and upset among the public suggests the government needs to be careful how they deal with refugee housing moving forward, as this issue is clearly upsetting a large cohort of the public.

Gains for Sinn Féin in this poll could be wholly put down to them making a lot of noise about Pascal Donohoe and his election expenses saga, and the claims of possible corruption of those in government.

Certainly, this will have had some impact given the focus was very firmly on him as the poll was taken.  The idea of corruption among those in power also plays very well to those in society that feel left behind.

However, the refugee issue is also likely to be a factor for many, who believe the government is not handling it well or fairly.  Once again, those without in society feel they are the ones suffering as a result.

For Fine Gael, the expenses issue certainly appears to have taken away the momentum they had been building in the run up to Christmas, and is doubly upsetting for them given consumer confidence is also beginning to see some green shoots which would normally help the government parties.

But this election expenses issue will pass; whereas the idea that another 80,000 refugees may come to Ireland in 2023 is surely only going to increase pressure on government, with the immigration issue perhaps now much more important than it had been in past elections.

(RedC Research)

January 30, 2023

Source: https://www.redcresearch.ie/anti-immigration-sentiment-bubbling-up-to-become-a-major-political-issue-in-ireland/

 

NORTH AMERICA

780-43-12/Polls

House Gets Younger, Senate Gets Older: A Look At The Age And Generation Of Lawmakers In The 118th Congress

The U.S. House of Representatives is getting younger – at least a bit – while the Senate’s median age continues to rise, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of the newly installed 118th Congress.

The median age of voting House lawmakers is 57.9 years, down from 58.9 in the 117th Congress (2021-22), 58.0 in the 116th (2019-20) and 58.4 in the 115th (2017-18). The new Senate’s median age, on the other hand, is 65.3 years, up from 64.8 in the 117th Congress, 63.6 in the 116th and 62.4 in the 115th.

How we did this

A chart showing the number of voting members of the 118th Congress in each generation and age group

The House’s median age has ticked down because newly elected, first-time members are predominantly in their 40s or younger. Of the 73 freshman representatives in the House – those who were elected for the first time in the November 2022 midterms – 31 are in their 40s, 15 are in their 30s and one – Rep. Maxwell Alejandro Frost, D-Fla. – just turned 26 in January. The remaining new lawmakers are in their 50s or 60s.

A large majority of the 118th House’s first-time members (64 of 73) are below the chamber’s median age of 57.9. The median age of new representatives is 46.3, down from 52.1 among new members in the prior Congress.

The Senate, for its part, has gotten older even though the median age of the eight new senators in the 118th Congress is far below that of the chamber as a whole (49.4 vs. 65.3). Three of the new senators, all Republicans, are in their 40s, while another new Republican – J.D. Vance of Ohio – is in his 30s. Three other new senators, including two Republicans and one Democrat, are in their 50s, while another new Democrat, Peter Welch of Vermont, is in his 70s.

Differences by party

A chart showing that House freshmen in both parties have lower median ages than incumbents in the chamber

In the House, the 39 freshman Republican representatives skew somewhat older than the 34 new Democratic House members. The median age of freshmen House Republicans is 47.2, compared with 44.1 for first-time Democrats in the chamber.

Overall, the median age of House Democrats is 58.1, while the median age of House Republicans is 57.4. In the Senate, Democrats’ median age is nearly on par with that of Republicans (65.4 vs. 65.3).

New Congress has more Millennials and Gen Xers – and fewer Boomers

Another way to look at the age of the new Congress is through the lens of generation.

In Congress overall, older generations – that is, Baby Boomers (born 1946-64) and the Silent Generation (1928-45) – constitute 54% of all members. This is only a slight edge over younger generations – Generation Z (born after 1996), Millennials (1981-96) and Generation X (1965-80) – who together make up 46% of members.

A bar chart showing that younger generations make up a growing share of Congress, especially in the House

In the House, most of the freshman lawmakers are Generation Xers (39) or Millennials (24), while Frost is the first-ever Generation Z member of Congress. The remaining first-time members are Baby Boomers.

Overall, 52 members of the 118th House are Millennials, up from 31 in the 117th Congress and 26 in the 116th. Members of that generation, who are between the ages of 27 and 42 in 2023, now represent 12% of all current voting House members and are divided equally between Republicans and Democrats.

In addition, 166 House members are Gen Xers, who are between the ages of 43 and 58 in 2023. That number is up from 144 in the 117th Congress and is second in size in the new Congress only to Boomers (194), who are between the ages of 59 and 77 this year. Gen X’s share of the House now stands at 38%, up from 33% in the last Congress. Republicans hold a slight edge in this generation with 88 members, compared with 78 Democrats.

Collectively, younger generations – Gen X, Millennials and Gen Z – have about as many House members (219) as Boomers and the Silent Generation combined (215). Boomers’ share of the House continues to decline – to 45%, down from 53% in the 117th Congress – though it is still larger than any other generation represented in the chamber. The ranks of the Silent Generation, who are between the ages of 78 and 95 in 2023, continue to dwindle: Just 21 Silent Generation members remain in the House, or 5% of the whole chamber – down from 27, or 6%, in the previous Congress.

In the Senate, Boomers continue to dominate, with 66 senators in this generation. That is slightly down from the previous Congress (68) but in line with the two before it (66 and 65, respectively). The number of Silent Generation senators has fallen to eight. As recently as the 115th Congress (2017-18), 19 senators were part of that generation. The number of Gen X senators has ticked up to 23, compared with 20 in the previous Congress.

The changing generational profile of Congress is linked to other shifts that are taking place on Capitol Hill. For example, the slow decline in lawmakers who are members of the Baby Boom or Silent generations – many of whom came of age during the U.S. military engagements in Korea and Vietnam – has accompanied a long-term decrease in the share of legislators who are veterans. And the arrival of younger generations of lawmakers has brought additional changes, including growing racial and ethnic diversity in Congress.

(PEW)

JANUARY 30, 2023

Source: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2023/01/30/house-gets-younger-senate-gets-older-a-look-at-the-age-and-generation-of-lawmakers-in-the-118th-congress/

 

780-43-13/Polls

As Russian Invasion Nears One-Year Mark, Partisans Grow Further Apart On U.S. Support For Ukraine

As the United States ramps up military aid to Ukraine, the share of Americans who say the U.S. is providing too much support has grown. About a quarter (26%) now say the U.S. is providing too much support to Ukraine, while 31% say it is giving the right amount and 20% would like to see the U.S. give Ukraine additional assistance.

A bar chart showing that the share of Republicans who say the U.S. gives too much aid to Ukraine has steadily increased since March

The share of adults who say the U.S. is providing too much aid to Ukraine has increased 6 percentage points since last September and 19 points since shortly after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine last year, according to a Pew Research Center survey conducted Jan. 18-24 among 5,152 U.S. adults.

This shift in opinion is mostly attributable to the growing share of Republicans who say the U.S. is providing too much support to Ukraine. Today, 40% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents hold this view, up from 32% in the fall and much higher than the 9% who held this view in March of last year.

How we did this

There has also been an increase in the share of Democrats who say the U.S. is providing too much support to Ukraine. Still, only 15% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents currently say this, up from 5% last March. About six-in-ten Democrats either say the U.S. is providing about the right amount of support to Ukraine (40%) or that the U.S. is not providing enough support (23%).

A bar chart showing that Republicans are now less likely than Democrats to see the Russia-Ukraine war as a major threat to the U.S.

Public attention to the Russia-Ukraine conflict is little changed in recent months, with about two-thirds of Americans (65%) – including similar shares of Republicans and Democrats – saying they follow news about the invasion at least somewhat closely.

But there is a wide partisan gap over whether Russia’s invasion of Ukraine poses a major threat to U.S. interests or not, a shift from the early days of the conflict. Last March, Republicans and Democrats were about equally likely to say that the invasion posed a major threat to U.S. interests (51% of Republicans said this, as did 50% of Democrats). The share of Americans who see the conflict as a major threat to U.S. interests has declined in both parties since March 2022. Today, Republicans are far less likely than Democrats to say this (29% vs. 43%).

More Americans approve than disapprove of Biden administration’s approach to Russian invasion of Ukraine

In the Center’s new survey, about four-in-ten U.S. adults (43%) say they approve of the Biden administration’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, while about a third (34%) disapprove. About two-in-ten (22%) say they are not sure. Views of the Biden administration’s response have changed little since May 2022, the last time this question was asked.

Public ratings of the administration’s response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine remain more positive than President Joe Biden’s overall job approval rating. Today, 38% of Americans approve of Biden’s job performance, while six-in-ten disapprove.

A chart showing that about six-in-ten Democrats and a quarter of Republicans approve of the Biden administration’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

Democrats are more than twice as likely as Republicans (61% vs. 27%) to approve of the Biden administration’s response to the Russia invasion. Republicans, for their part, are considerably more likely to approve of the administration’s response to the invasion than to approve of Biden’s overall job performance (27% vs. 6%).

(PEW)

JANUARY 31, 2023

Source: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2023/01/31/as-russian-invasion-nears-one-year-mark-partisans-grow-further-apart-on-u-s-support-for-ukraine/

 

780-43-14/Polls

Americans' Dissatisfaction With Nation Eases, But Still High

Continuing a two-decade trend, most Americans remain dissatisfied with the way things are going in the U.S. -- 23% say they are satisfied, and 76% are dissatisfied. Forty-eight percent, the largest group, are “very dissatisfied,” but that figure has dropped from the record-high 66% measured in January 2021. Americans’ intense dissatisfaction eased last year, to 51%, and inched down further this year.

Each month, Gallup asks Americans whether they are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the U.S. Periodically, including in most January Mood of the Nation polls, Gallup has asked a follow-up question probing the intensity of Americans’ satisfaction or dissatisfaction. The Jan. 2-22 survey finds 5% of U.S. adults are very satisfied, 18% somewhat satisfied, 28% somewhat dissatisfied and 48% very dissatisfied.

In most years since 2007, more people have been very dissatisfied with the state of the nation than either somewhat dissatisfied or satisfied. During this time, the average percentage very dissatisfied has been 46%.

Strong dissatisfaction reached its peak in 2021, at 66%, amid the Jan. 6 U.S. Capitol riot and a then-record number of U.S. coronavirus cases and deaths.

Overall Satisfaction Similar to Last Month, but Higher Than a Year Ago

The 23% of Americans who are satisfied today represents an increase from January 2022 (17%) and January 2021 (11%), but it is similar to the 22% Gallup measured in its December poll.

In 2022, satisfaction ranged from a low of 13% in June and July, a time of high gas prices and rising inflation, to a high of 24% in March.

From a broader historical perspective, Americans’ satisfaction remains below the 36% average in all measures since Gallup first asked the question in 1979.

All Major Party Groups Rate State of Nation Negatively

Majorities of all three major political party groups are dissatisfied with the state of the nation, although there is a difference in degree. While a larger proportion of Democrats are “somewhat” (36%) rather than “very” (28%) dissatisfied, the largest shares of independents (46%) and Republicans (75%) are very dissatisfied.

The decline in strong dissatisfaction over the past two years is mainly seen among Democrats, though fewer independents have said they were very dissatisfied in each of the past two years.

Meanwhile, the percentage of Republicans who are very dissatisfied has ticked up since 2021, likely because of the change from a Republican to a Democratic presidential administration that occurred after the 2021 survey was conducted.

(Gallup)

JANUARY 31, 2023

Source: https://news.gallup.com/poll/469070/americans-dissatisfaction-nation-eases-high.aspx

 

780-43-15/Polls

Americans Still Glum About State Of The Union In Most Areas

Americans’ assessment of the state of the nation remains in the pandemic-era slump seen since 2021, marked by subdued satisfaction with 30 different aspects of the country. These include the public’s reaction to several aspects of U.S. society generally, as well as to numerous specific issues facing the country.

These findings from Gallup’s Jan. 2-22 Mood of the Nation poll come as only 23% of Americans are broadly satisfied with the way things are going in the country, while the rest are dissatisfied, including nearly half “very dissatisfied.”

Most Are Content With Quality of Life but Not Nation’s Morals

The overall quality of life in the country (65%) and the opportunity for a person to get ahead by working hard (61%) are the only two societal dimensions of eight measured in this year’s Mood of the Nation poll that a majority of Americans view positively.

Even these satisfaction ratings, however, are well below the record highs of 89% for the quality of life in 2001-2002 and 77% for opportunity in 2002.

Close to half of Americans today are satisfied with the influence of organized religion, while satisfaction drops to a third for the size and power of the federal government as well as the U.S. system of government and how it works.

Americans are least satisfied with the nation’s moral and ethical climate (20%), the way income and wealth are distributed (24%), and the size and influence of major corporations (27%).

Gallup has measured Americans’ satisfaction with various aspects of the country each January since 2001, except in 2009 and 2010, when the question was not asked.

The only significant change in the broad societal ratings over the past year is a six-percentage-point decline in satisfaction with the way income and wealth are distributed. This may reflect, at least in part, the prolonged period of high inflation since January 2022 that has created financial hardship for many.

Seven of the eight societal dimensions (all but income/wealth equality) have been measured annually since 2001. The average rating is 41% today, identical to the composite rating in 2022 and similar to the record-low 39% found in 2021.

Average satisfaction was significantly higher in January 2020, just before the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, and it had ranged narrowly from 44% to 50% for the nine years prior to that. Satisfaction with these big-picture aspects of the country was even higher in the early 2000s, exceeding 60% in 2001 and 2002 before dropping into the 50s from 2003 to 2008.

Issue Area Ratings Highest for Military and Positions of Women, Gay and Lesbian People

The new survey also probed Americans’ satisfaction with 22 specific public policy and life areas. Public satisfaction with these ranges from a high of 64% for the nation’s military strength and preparedness to a low of 14% for the nation’s campaign finance laws.

The public is content with just four issue areas this year, based on majority-level satisfaction. In addition to the nation’s military strength, these are the position of women in the nation, the acceptance of gay and lesbian people, and the nation’s security from terrorism. All others, however, fall short, including 13 that earn lower than 40% satisfaction.

Over the past year, satisfaction improved by a statistically meaningful amount in just two areas -- security from terrorism (up eight points to 55%), and the Social Security and Medicare systems (+7), while it declined in five: the economy (down 8 points to 25%), the acceptance of gay and lesbian people (-7), the nation’s gun laws or policies (-7), the level of immigration (-6) and the nation’s efforts to deal with poverty and homelessness (-6).

Seventeen of this year's issue ratings have been measured annually since 2002 (when terrorism was added to the list). Average satisfaction on these is 36% in 2023. This matches last year's average, when satisfaction with various specific areas of policy and life in America had fallen to the lowest in Gallup’s 23-year trend.

Unlike average satisfaction with broad aspects of the country, which was routinely above 50% in the early 2000s before falling into the 40s and 30s, satisfaction with specific issues has rarely varied more than two points from the average 43% satisfaction rating for 2002-2021, before falling to 36% in 2022.

Party Differences

Partisans’ views on the state of the nation are similar in a few respects, while highly divergent in others.

The largest differences in macro-societal views are on the influence of organized religion -- with a majority of Republicans versus a third of Democrats satisfied -- and the size and power of the federal government, about which the majority of Democrats versus few Republicans are satisfied.

Republicans and Democrats share a mostly negative view of the size and influence of major corporations, with only about a quarter of each group (and the same proportion of independents) satisfied. Satisfaction is also universally scant with income and wealth distribution and the nation’s moral and ethical climate.

On the positive side, majorities of all three groups are satisfied with the opportunity to succeed through hard work and with the overall quality of life.

Partisan differences are starker with respect to specific policy areas, where the party gap is 20 points or more for half of the 22 issues measured.

The widest gap is seen on the nation’s gun laws, with 56% of Republicans versus 12% of Democrats satisfied. But the gulf is nearly as wide for the quality of the environment and the position of Black people and other racial minorities in the nation -- both of which receive higher satisfaction ratings from Republicans than Democrats.

Slight majorities of Republicans and Democrats are satisfied with the position of gay and lesbian people in the country, as well as with the quality of medical care. More than a third of Republicans (35%) and Democrats (39%) are satisfied with the availability of affordable healthcare, while they express much less satisfaction with the nation’s efforts to deal with poverty and homelessness.

This year’s partisan differences -- with Democrats more satisfied on some issues and Republicans more satisfied on others -- largely balance each other out, resulting in similar average satisfaction scores for both parties across all 22 issues. In other words, partisans may be satisfied with different things, but their overall reactions to the state of the nation are similar. Democrats’ average satisfaction with all 22 issues is 38% (the same as independents’) and Republicans’ is 36%.

The average societal ratings are also similar by party, with Democrats averaging 39% satisfaction across the eight areas, independents averaging 38% and Republicans 36%.

Bottom Line

Americans have long desired more from government when it comes to addressing the nation’s problems, whether that be policies pertaining to energy, guns, the environment or education. Today’s average issue satisfaction rating is tied with 2022’s for the lowest Gallup has recorded in its measurements since 2001 but is not vastly different from the past.

On the other hand, Americans’ belief in some of the nation’s fundamental merits has been shaken since the emergence of the pandemic and the subsequent economic turmoil. Less than two-thirds are satisfied with the quality of life today or with the opportunity to get ahead through hard work, down from much higher levels as recently as January 2020. Satisfaction with the nation’s system of government and how it works has fallen even more dramatically, from 68% in 2001 to 33% today, although much of that decline occurred over the first decade. And satisfaction ratings with government power, corporate power and income inequality are all at or near their record lows.

People tuning in to hear President Joe Biden deliver his State of the Union address to Congress on Feb. 7 may be hoping his vision for the country supports the return to prepandemic normalcy in the economy, in civic affairs and in their ability to feel content with their American life.

(Gallup)

FEBRUARY 2, 2023

Source: https://news.gallup.com/poll/469241/americans-glum-state-union-areas.aspx

 

780-43-16/Polls

Sports Gambling Growth Driven By Small Group Of Highly Engaged Sports Fans

In the past few years, legal sports betting has exploded as an industry in certain states. Now, a new Ipsos poll finds that the industry’s growth is on the back of a very small group of Americans. Fewer than one in ten report placing official bets in the past year. This group is very engaged with the sporting world and also significantly more likely than the American public to favor legalizing sports betting. In fact, only a third of Americans are in favor of allowing online and in-person sports betting in their state. While support is mixed, with another third unsure how they feel about the issue, a majority do believe that people should be able to gamble on sports and spend their money how they want.

Graphic 1

 

Detailed Findings

 

1. Fewer than one in ten Americans have placed an official bet on a sporting event.

2. One in three Americans support legalizing sports betting both online and in-person in their state. Public opinion is evenly split between those who support legalizing betting, those who oppose, and those who are unsure.

  • Men, sports fans, and official sports bettors are more likely to support legalized sports betting. They follow a similar profile to bettors themselves, who are more likely to be male and younger.
  • A similar percentage of Americans agree that sports betting is a way to get people more engaged in sports (33%).
  • While support for legalized sports betting is tepid, nearly three in five Americans (59%) say people should be able to gamble on sports and spend their money how they want. In contrast, 37% say sports betting is wrong and promotes activities that can lead to addiction.

Graphic 2

3. Americans are split on how sports betting impacts the integrity of the game. However, this does not register as main issue for most Americans.

  • Similar to overall support for legalizing gambling, sentiments on whether or not betting affects the integrity of the game are mixed. Thirty-seven percent of Americans agree that sports betting lessens the integrity of the game. Thirty percent disagree with this sentiment, and 32% don’t know.
  • Americans ages 55+ are much more likely than their younger counterparts to agree that sports betting lessens integrity (47% agree vs. 29% of 18-34 year olds and 31% of 35-54 year olds).
  • While some concern exists, just 11% of Americans see sports betting leading to fixed matches as a main issue currently facing the sports world. Only 4% believe the decision to allow sports betting is a main issue.

4. While a majority of Americans support requiring sports franchises to be more transparent about player injuries, they do not believe it should come at the expense of players’ medical privacy.

  • Nearly three in five Americans (59%) and two in three sports bettors (67%) support requiring sports franchises to disclose more information about player injuries.
  • Self-ascribed sports fans are more likely than non-sports fans to show support (63% vs. 50%, respectively).
  • Despite broad support for more transparency, 70% of Americans believe players’ medical privacy should always be protected, even if it results in less transparency for sports bettors. Just one in four (26%) say sports bettors deserve more transparency from sports leagues about player injuries and health.
  • Of note, a majority of sports bettors (64%) agree that player’s medical privacy should always be protected.

(Ipsos USA)

1 February 2023

Source: https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/sports-gambling-growth-driven-small-group-highly-engaged-sports-fans

 

780-43-17/Polls

How Safe Do Women Feel In The Bogata

The police put into operation a special command made up of 500 women to prevent and report cases of violence against women. A day 87 women in Bogotá are victims of violence, this crime is increasing.

2022 closed with 20% more cases, which is why the capital created the purple command.

"In all the stations you will find a woman with this purple patrol button where you can file a complaint, we still have our hotlines 155 and 123."

The command is made up of 500 policewomen, the idea is to prevent violence and facilitate complaints in addition to materializing arrest warrants for non-compliance with restriction measures.

"We invite all women not to remain silent to report any abuse."

How safe do women feel in the capital? CM& contracted a survey with the Centro Nacional de Consultoría.

To the question, are you afraid of walking alone through the streets of Bogotá after 6 in the afternoon?

  • 80% of those consulted answered yes.
  • The 20% who said no.

The place where they feel most insecure is in the public space. The purple command seeks to expedite the reaction and guarantee a rapid response to complaints of gender-based violence or sexual violence.

Ficha técnica

Technical sheet, survey, Violence against women

(CNC)

February 01, 2023

Source: https://www.centronacionaldeconsultoria.com/en/post/how-safe-do-women-feel-in-the-capital

 

AUSTRALIA

780-43-18/Polls

ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Up 9.6pts To 83.4 In January

ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence was up 9.6pts to 83.4 in January.

  • Inflation expectations were little changed at 5.3%.

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index in January bounced 9 points off its record low in December to 83.4. Just like our Business Outlook survey, some of the post-RBNZ shock appears to have worn off. However, subdued card-spending data in December suggests consumers may indeed be “cooling their jets” as instructed.

While confidence rose, it remains very low, and the softening labour market could see the long-running disconnect between consumers’ stated intentions and their actual spending decisions close.

Turning to the detail:

  • Net perceptions of current personal financial situations rose 3 points to -20% with 23% (down 1ppt) of New Zealanders saying they are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 43% (down 4ppts) saying they are ‘worse off’.
  • A net 7% expect to be better off this time next year, up a large 17 points with over a third, 35% (up 5ppts) of New Zealanders expecting to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year compared to under a third, 29% (down 10ppts) expecting to be ‘worse off’.
  • A net 28% think it’s a bad time to buy a major household item, an improvement of 5ppts from December.
  • Perceptions regarding the economic outlook in 12 months’ time rose 14 points to -40%. The 5-year-ahead measure rose from -12% to -1%.
  • House price inflation expectations rose from -0.8% to -0.3%.
  • One-year-ahead CPI inflation expectations edged up from 5.2% to 5.3% – still well below businesses’ expectations, interestingly.
  • The proportion of mortgage-paying households who think it’s a good time to spend continues to be lower than renters (-33% vs -22%).

(Roy Morgan)

February 03, 2023

Source: https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9166-anz-roy-morgan-nz-consumer-confidence-january-2023

 

780-43-19/Polls

NSW Voting Intention: ALP Increased Their Lead Over The L-NP To End 2022: ALP 55% Cf. L-NP 45%

The latest Roy Morgan Poll on State voting intention in New South Wales shows the ALP on 55% (up 3% points since November) well ahead of the Liberal-National Coalition on 45% (down 3% points) on a two-party preferred basis.

This Roy Morgan Poll on State voting intention was conducted via telephone and online surveying with 1,446 New South Wales electors aged 18+ during the month of December 2022.

Primary voting intention shows the ALP and Coalition are level on only 33.5%

The ALP and Liberal-National Coalition both lost support to minor parties and independents in December with the L-NP down 3.5% points to 33.5% and now level with the ALP on 33.5% (down 1.5% points).

Not since the 2007 New South Wales Election have both major parties failed to secure a primary vote support of at least 40% in a New South Wales State Election.

The support increased for minor parties and independents in December with support for the Greens rising 0.5% points to 12% while support for ‘Other parties and independents’ was up 4.5% points to 21%.

Among the minor parties support for One Nation is at 4.5% (down 0.5% points), Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party is on 1.5% (up 1% point), the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party is on 1% (down 0.5% points), the Animal Justice Party is on 1% (up 0.5% points) the Legalise Cannabis Party is on 1% (up 0.5% points), the Liberal Democrats are on 0.5% (unchanged), ‘Teal Independents’ are 1% (up 0.5% points) and another 10.5% (up 3% points) say they will support other minor parties and independents.

Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says the latest Roy Morgan Poll into NSW voting intention shows the ALP well on track to follow up victories in the Federal and Victorian Elections in 2022 with a victory at the NSW State Election due in late March:

“Roy Morgan began interviewing for State voting intention in New South Wales in mid-2022 and the results for December show the ALP on 55% with a commanding two-party preferred lead over the Liberal-National Coalition Government on 45% – a gap of 10% points.

“The ALP has been clearly ahead in each of the last four months on a two-party preferred basis although the primary support for both major parties is low at only 33.5% in December. Primary vote support for both major parties dropped in December, but it is the L-NP which is down significantly since the 2019 NSW Election – by 8.1% points while the ALP is virtually unchanged from 2019.

“The drop in support for the L-NP has mostly drifted to both the Greens on 12% (up 2.4% points) and other minor parties and independents on 21% (up 5.5% points). The latest results for December show that around a third of the electorate plan to vote for a non-major party candidate.

“The trends we see in NSW State polling echo the trends we saw at last year’s Federal Election when the ALP won Government despite receiving only 32.6% of the primary vote, even less than the L-NP on 35.7%. Nearly a third of electors, 31.7%, voted for a minor party or independents at last year’s Federal Election.

“Interviewing for this survey was completed in December before the controversy surrounding Premier Dominic Perrottet’s decision to dress in a Nazi uniform at his 21st birthday party hit the headlines during mid-January.

“The results for the next period of surveying conducted this month will be out in the next fortnight and will show whether Perrottet’s decision to wear a Nazi uniform twenty years ago has come back to bite him as he seeks to close the gap on the Chris Minns-led Opposition over the last two months of the campaign.

“A victory for the ALP in New South Wales will mean wall-to-wall Labor Governments on the Australian mainland with only the three-term Tasmanian Liberal Government led by Premier Jeremy Rockliff standing against a clean sweep of Australia’s nine legislatures.”

For further comment or more information contact:

Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or Julian McCrann 0434 361 298 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.

Question 1:

“If a State Election for New South Wales were being held today, which party would receive your first preference?"

New South Wales Primary Voting Intention – Trends.

New South Wales Electors 18+

PRIMARY

2019 NSW
Election

September
2022

October
2022

November
2022

December
2022

VOTE

%

%

%

%

%

L-NP

41.6

34

32

37

33.5

ALP

33.3

34

36.5

35

33.5

Greens

9.6

12.5

9.5

11.5

12

Total Others

15.5

19.5

22

16.5

21

One Nation

1.1

3.5

5.5

5

4.5

UAP: United Australia Party

n/a

1

1

0.5

1.5

Shooters, Fishers, Farmers (SFF) Party

3.5

1

1

1.5

1

Animal Justice Party

1.5

1.5

1

0.5

1

Legalise Cannabis Party

n/a

2

1.5

0.5

1

Liberal Democrats

0.2

0.5

1

0.5

0.5

‘Teal Independents’

n/a

0.5

1

0.5

1

Independents

4.8

7.5

8.5

5.5

9

Other Parties

4.4

2

1.5

2

1.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

New South Wales Two-Party Preferred Voting Intention – Trends.

New South Wales Electors 18+

2019 NSW
Election

September
2022

October
2022

November
2022

December
2022

2PP

%

%

%

%

%

L-NP

52

47

43

48

45

ALP

48

53

57

52

55

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

 

(Roy Morgan)

January 31, 2023

Source: https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9158-roy-morgan-survey-on-nsw-voting-intention-december-2022

 

MULTICOUNTRY STUDIES

780-43-20/Polls

Support For A Two-State Solution Among Palestinians And Israelis Declines

Support for a two-state solution among Palestinians and Israelis declines to just one-third on each side, along with growing opposition to the detailed items of a permanent peace agreement for implementing a two-state solution. Slightly more Israeli Jews support one unequal state under Israeli rule than the two-state solution; but both publics still prefer two states to any other democratic framework for resolving the conflict. Pairs of reciprocal incentives can raise support somewhat on both sides, showing some flexibility particularly among the Israelis. But trust is declining to new low points, and a majority of Palestinians reject four proposed confidence building measures while a majority of Israelis accepts half of them.

These are the results of Palestinian-Israeli Pulse: A Joint Poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in Ramallah and the International Program in Conflict Resolution and Mediation at Tel Aviv University with funding from the Netherlands Representative Office in Ramallah and the Representative Office of Japan to Palestine through UNDP/PAPP. The joint poll was conducted during December 2022.

(Arabbarometer)

January 30, 2023

Source: https://www.arabbarometer.org/2023/01/12419/

 

780-43-21/Polls

Africans Want Age Limits For Government Heads, A Survey Among 34 African Nations

Over the years, some policy actors have blamed aspects of African countries’ development challenges on the advanced ages of their leaders, though no theory or empirical evidence establishes such a relationship (Anoba, 2018; Sackey, 2021). The elections of Emmanuel Macron as president of France at age 39 (2017), Sebastian Kurz as chancellor of Austria at age 31 (2017), and Nayib Bukele as president of El Salvador at age 37 (2019) led some democracy watchers to wonder when Africa – the world’s youngest continent, with under35s making up about two-thirds of the population – will produce youthful presidents (Alim, 2019; Phekani, 2019). In all but one (Ethiopia) of the 28 African countries that chose presidents or prime ministers during the period 2018-2021, the winners were more than 50 years old (see Table A.2 in the Appendix for details). In 19 countries, the winners were above age 60, despite the participation of 27 under-50 candidates in those countries. As Nigeria prepares for elections in February 2023, the National Youths Union of Nigeria has reignited this discussion by calling on citizens to elect a president who is less than 60 years of age (Sahara Reporters, 2022). The 2019/2021 Afrobarometer Round 8 survey in 34 countries asked Africans whether they think their countries should have minimum and maximum age limits for heads of government, and if so, what these limits should be. Findings show that most Africans favour both minimum and maximum age limits for their leaders, though their views on what those limits should be vary greatly. Comparing the ages of incumbent leaders to citizens’ proposed age limits and to countries’ official retirement ages, we find that heads of government have exceeded average citizens’ maximum age limits in 15 of 34 countries, and have exceeded official retirement age in 23 countries. But citizens in 27 countries also tend to propose age limits for heads of state that exceed the official retirement age, suggesting that they aren’t opposed to retirement-age leaders.

Key findings § On average across 34 countries, three-quarters (76%) of Africans are in favour of a maximum age limit for heads of government. About the same percentage (74%) support minimum age limits for these chief public servants. o Maximum age limits have majority support in all surveyed countries, exceeding nine out of 10 citizens in Mali (95%), Benin (94%), and Senegal (90%). § Citizens’ views on what the minimum and maximum age limits should be vary widely. o For a minimum age limit, the mean across 34 countries is 39 years, ranging from a low of 34 years in Morocco to a high of 42 years in Ghana, Guinea, Namibia, and Tanzania. The modal (most frequently cited) proposed minimum across 34 countries is 40 years, ranging from 30 years in the Gambia and Morocco to 40 years in 29 out of the 34 countries. o For a maximum age limit, the mean across 34 countries is 66 years, ranging from 58 years in Morocco to 72 years in Zimbabwe. The modal maximum age is 70 across the 34 countries. § Compared against the mean and modal minimum age limits proposed by survey respondents, the heads of governments in all 34 countries were old enough to qualify for the office. However, assessed against the mean maximum age limits proposed by citizens, heads of government in 15 countries were too old at the time of the survey to occupy their positions. § The ages of incumbent heads of government at the time of the survey exceeded their countries’ official retirement ages in 23 of the 34 surveyed countries. § However, the mean maximum age limits proposed by citizens were higher than the official retirement age in 27 countries, suggesting that despite strong support for age limits, many citizens are quite generous with respect to how old their heads of government can be. Do Africans support age limits for heads of government2? Among the 34 countries that Afrobarometer surveyed in 2019/2021, 28 have constitutional provisions for a minimum age for presidents or prime ministers.3 In contrast, only two set a maximum age limit, while incumbents in two other countries, with the support of the legislatures, have managed to abolish age limits to allow them to seek additional terms.4 When citizens are asked directly, three-fourths of them say they think their constitutions should provide for both minimum age limits (74% on average across 34 countries) and maximum age limits (75%) for their heads of government (Figure 1).

Support for both types of age limits exceeds nine out of 10 citizens in Mali and Benin. It is weakest in Morocco and Eswatini, but even there half or more of all adults favour these limits. Countries expressing strong support for minimum age limits tend to do the same for maximum age limits. Eswatini and Lesotho are unusual in that in both countries, maximum age limits are 11 percentage points more popular than minimum age limits. Support for both types of age limits is strong across key demographic groups (Figure 2).

What should the age limits be? When respondents who favour minimum and maximum age limits for presidents or prime ministers are asked what they think those limits should be, they offer a wide range of suggestions. One way to examine the results is to look at the proportions of respondents who favour certain age limits (Figure 3). For minimum age limits, 40 years is the most popular or modal choice (20%), followed by 35 (11%), 30 (11%), 50 (9%), and 45 (8%). For a maximum, 70 years gets the most votes (i.e. is the modal value) (18%), followed by 60 (16%) and a variety of ages under 60 (15%). About one in 10 respondents who favour a maximum age limit suggest it be set at 80 years (9%).

All countries record a modal minimum age of 40 except Uganda, Kenya, and Cameroon, which has a modal minimum age of 35, and Morocco and the Gambia, with a modal minimum age of 30 (Figure 4). For the maximum age, 21 countries record 70 years as the most common response, while 60 years is the most common response in 11 countries.

Another way to summarise citizens’ preferences with regard to a maximum age limit is to look at what proportion is likely to endorse a given age as a maximum limit (Figure 5). This assumes that a person who supports a given maximum limit (e.g. 60 years) would also endorse a higher maximum (e.g. 75 years) as preferable to having no maximum at all. Thus, on average across 34 countries, while only 31% would set the maximum limit at 60 years, a majority (57%) would endorse a limit of 70 years.

Similarly, we can consider what proportion think a given age is too young to head a government. As shown in Figure 6, 73% of respondents would set the minimum age at 18 years or higher, and a majority (54%) would insist that a head of government be at least 35 years old. But only one in five (21%) would set the minimum age at 45 years or higher.

Finally, a third way to interpret the findings is to calculate mean minimum and maximum ages for each country (Figure 7). The mean age is the average of all the ages suggested by all respondents (excluding those who did not want a minimum or maximum age, respectively).

The mean (average) preferred minimum age across 34 countries is 39 years, very similar to the modal (most popular) minimum age of 40 years. The means of citizens’ proposed minimum age limits range from a low of 34 years in Morocco to a high of 42 years in Ghana, Guinea, Tanzania, and Namibia. The mean proposed minimum ages exceed 40 years in just seven countries. Across the 34 countries, the mean maximum age is 66 years. The mean maximums range from 58 years in Morocco to 72 years in Zimbabwe, with only six countries averaging 70 years or above. What proposed age limits imply for each country’s current leadership To examine what these proposed minimum and maximum ages would mean for current heads of government, we compare them to each leader’s age at the time of the Afrobarometer Round 8 survey. As we can see in Figure 8, the leader’s age exceeded the mean proposed minimum age in every country; the differences in years are detailed in Figure 9. For instance, President Paul Biya of Cameroon (the oldest) was 51 years older at the time of the survey than the country’s mean minimum age limit for a president, while Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali (the youngest) was 8 years older. Thus, considered against the mean minimum age limits suggested by citizens, all current heads of governments in the 34 countries would be old enough to qualify to occupy their positions. Heads of government are, however, older than the preferred maximum age in 15 countries, by margins ranging from one year (for President Ali Bongo Ondimba of Gabon) to 22 years (for President Biya of Cameroon) (Figure 10).

Does support for maximum age limits signal rejection of gerontocracy? We have established strong public support for instituting maximum age limits for heads of government and seen that 15 incumbents had surpassed the mean preferred maximum at the time of the Round 8 surveys. Do these findings signal that Africans reject gerontocracy? We explore this question by comparing countries’ mean preferred maximum age limits and incumbents’ ages at the time of the survey to the countries’ mandatory ages of retirement from active public service,5 as displayed in Figure 11.

At the time of our surveys, 23 heads of government were older than their country’s official retirement age. Margins range from one year (for Ali Bongo of Gabon, Julius Maada Bio of Sierra Leone, and the late John Magufuli of Tanzania) to 28 years for Cameroon’s Biya (Figure 12).

Significantly, in 27 countries, the mean proposed maximum age limits for heads of government are higher than the official retirement ages. Differences range from one year in Angola to 28 years in Cameroon (Figure 13). In only five countries do the official retirement

ages exceed the average preferred maximum age limits for heads of government – Lesotho, Morocco, Sudan, Ethiopia, and South Africa. These findings indicate that citizens are quite generous with their proposed maximum age limits. Africans’ support for age limits for heads of government does not appear to signal a rejection of older leaders.

Conclusion Survey findings show that a large majority of Africans in 34 countries support the institution of minimum and maximum age limits for heads of government, though their suggested age limits vary widely. In most countries, the mean preferred maximum age is higher than the country’s official retirement age, suggesting that people are willing to let their heads of government serve until an older age – but not indefinitely.

(Afrobarometer)

1 February 2023

Source: https://www.afrobarometer.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/AD599-PAP21-Africans-want-age-limits-but-not-opposed-to-retirement-age-leaders-Afrobarometer-Pan-Africa-Profile-31jan23.pdf