|
BUSINESS
& POLITICS IN THE WORLD GLOBAL
OPINION REPORT NO. 882-884 Week:13 January–2 February
2025 Presentation: 6 February,
2025 Survey:
51% of voters want an administration not led by LDP 65%
of Japan firms hire foreign workers to cover labor shortages Spotlight*Lebanon: Views On AI Spotlight*KSA: Views On Brand Engagement Most Nigerians not aware of any government support programme Zimbabweans
say drug and substance abuse is rampant, see it as a society-wide challenge The cost of living continues to be the most important issue
facing London 6 in 10 Britons hold unfavourable opinion of Donald Trump and
Elon Musk Reading, music, series... the French people's favorite
activities on the train Spain leads global concern about housing: 74% believe that not
enough attention is paid Dutch People Concerned About Housing Damage Due To
Climate Change Nearly
Half of U.S. Says Healthcare Headed in Wrong Direction Highest
Hopes for Trump on Immigration; Lowest, on Unity Age
and generation in the 119th Congress: Somewhat younger, with fewer Boomers
and more Gen Xers 119th
Congress’ LGBTQ members include first trans representative Global attitudes to housing and house prices Majority of Americans support deporting immigrants who are in
the US illegally From
weight loss to longevity, South Africa's health consciousness takes centre
stage this year What Worries the World – January 2025 The Ipsos Foundation: empowering children worldwide through
education INTRODUCTORY NOTE
882-884-43-26/Commentary:
ASIA (Japan) Survey: 51% Of Voters Want
An Administration Not Led By LDP Prime
Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s approval rating has fallen to 33 percent, with
disapproval rising to 51 percent, as more than half of voters prefer a
non-LDP administration. Support among young voters is particularly low, and
skepticism toward Ishiba’s economic policies has increased, with only 20
percent expressing confidence. In the upcoming Upper House election, the LDP
leads with 25 percent support, while the DPP and CDP each have 15 percent.
The LDP’s image has further deteriorated following a political funding
scandal, with 64 percent of respondents saying their impression of the party
has worsened. (Asahi Shimbun)
20 January, 2025
(Pakistan) Roughly 1 In 3 Pakistanis (35%)
Are Optimistic About The Success Of Government-PTI Negotiations In Resolving
The Country's Political Issues, With Men (40%) And Those With 12 And Better
Years Of Education (37%) Showing Higher Optimism: Gallup & Gilani
Pakistan A Gallup & Gilani Pakistan survey found that 35%
of Pakistanis are optimistic about PTI-government negotiations resolving
political issues, with optimism higher among men (40%) and those with 12 or
more years of education (37%). Meanwhile, 20% believe the talks will fail,
41% are uncertain, and 4% did not respond. (Gallup Pakistan) (Japan) 65% Of Japan Firms Hire
Foreign Workers To Cover Labor Shortages A Japanese labor ministry survey found that 56.8% of
companies hire foreign workers expecting them to perform as well as or better
than Japanese staff, while 18.5% do so to promote diversity. Conducted in
late 2023 with responses from 3,534 businesses and 11,629 workers, the survey
revealed that 44.8% of companies face communication challenges with foreign
employees. Additionally, 51.5% of foreign workers found jobs through agencies
in their home countries, while 13.5% used agencies in Japan. Despite challenges,
82.5% of foreign workers reported no workplace issues. The ministry plans to
continue the survey for policymaking. (Kyodo
News)
26 December, 2024
(Pakistan) More Than Half Of Pakistanis
(53%) Completely Disagree With The Government’s Claim Of A Decrease In
Inflation, With A Higher Proportion Of Women (59%) And Urban Residents (56%)
Opposing The Claim: Gallup & Gilani Pakistan A Gallup & Gilani Pakistan survey found that 53%
of Pakistanis completely disagree with the government’s claim of a decrease
in inflation, with opposition higher among women (59%) and urban residents
(56%). In contrast, only 7% completely agree, 14% somewhat agree, 13%
somewhat disagree, 12% are unsure, and 1% did not respond. (Gallup Pakistan) MENA (Lebanon) Spotlight*Lebanon: Views
On AI A Spotlight*Lebanon report on AI reveals that nearly
60% of Lebanese have heard of AI, but only 30% of them feel they understand
it well. While 39% see AI as a force for good, 64% believe it should be
approached with caution due to potential risks. Trust remains a challenge,
with 28% expressing less confidence in companies that use AI. (Ipsos Lebanon) (Saudi Arabia) Spotlight*KSA: Views On
Brand Engagement The Spotlight report highlights that digital
platforms, especially mobile apps and social media, drive consumer-brand
interactions, with younger generations leading this shift. Four in five
consumers feel empowered to influence brands, and expectations are rising.
Over half believe brands should engage in social issues, and 7 in 10 would
avoid those lacking social responsibility, with younger consumers demanding
more accountability and ethical practices. (Ipsos Saudi Arabia) 2 February, 2025 AFRICA (Nigeria) Most Nigerians Not Aware Of Any Government Support
Programme A
recent survey by NOIPolls has shed light on a concerning gap in the awareness
and effectiveness of government initiatives designed to support citizens amid
the ongoing economic challenges in Nigeria. The nationwide survey revealed
that 82 percent of adult Nigerians are unaware of any government program or
initiative to assist citizens in the past year. This finding highlights a
critical issue in the communication or implementation of government support
systems, especially as the country grapples with significant economic
difficulties. (Zimbabwe) Drug
abuse is a growing crisis in Zimbabwe, with rising youth admissions and links
to unemployment. The government launched a national plan and proposed an
anti-drug agency. An Afrobarometer survey shows Zimbabweans favor strict
penalties, public education, and anti-trafficking efforts, trusting schools
and families more than police to address the issue. (Afrobarometer) 27
January, 2025 WEST EUROPE
(UK)
The Cost Of Living Continues To Be The Most Important Issue Facing London The cost of living remains the top issue for
Londoners (75%), followed by housing affordability (59%) and crime (55%).
Housing concerns are growing, with 72% seeing rent or mortgage increases and
24% of renters considering leaving London. Support for new housing is strong
(60%), especially for affordable homes (74%). Nearly half (46%) support more
devolution, particularly for housing and transport (61%). Most Londoners are
satisfied with their local area (65%) and job flexibility (70%), but long NHS
wait times (65%) and safety at night (48%) remain concerns. (Ipsos UK)
3 February, 2025 (UK) 6 In 10 Britons Hold
Unfavourable Opinion Of Donald Trump And Elon Musk A majority of Britons (63%) hold an unfavorable view
of Donald Trump, with only 22% favorable. Younger Britons and Reform UK
voters are more supportive. Elon Musk is also widely unpopular (63%
unfavorable, 17% favorable), with younger people and Reform voters showing
more mixed views. The British public largely believes Trump’s presidency will
negatively impact global security (53%), political stability (52%), and UK-US
relations, trade, and security. (Ipsos UK) 18 January, 2025 (France) Reading, Music, Series...
The French People's Favorite Activities On The Train Train journeys in France are a mix of cultural and
leisure activities, with daydreaming, social media, and music being the top
choices. Reading remains popular, with passengers averaging four books per
year, while nearly half watch series or films. Music is essential for 62%,
and gaming is growing, especially among young people. Train time is seen as
valuable, with 74% considering it a beneficial break. Travelers would most
like to share a ride with Thomas Pesquet, comedians, and musicians. Awkward
moments are common, including watching a neighbor’s screen or playing music
too loudly, and some admit to changing activities to impress others. (Ipsos France) 28 January, 2025 (Spain) Spain Leads Global Concern
About Housing: 74% Believe That Not Enough Attention Is Paid Spain leads global concern over housing, with 74%
believing the issue is neglected. Rising rents and home prices have fueled
dissatisfaction, especially among young people—only 39% of those under 35 are
satisfied with their housing situation. While 68% of renters aspire to own a
home, 56% believe they never will. Affordability is the main obstacle, with
80% saying prices have risen in the past year and 71% expecting further
increases. Despite 59% supporting new housing construction, three in four
doubt it will meet demand. The ideal home for most Spaniards (36%) is a city
apartment, with affordability, location, and infrastructure being key
factors. (Ipsos
Spain) 28
January, 2025 (Netherlands) Dutch People Concerned
About Housing Damage Due To Climate Change Over half (57%) of respondents have taken no action
to reduce climate risks and do not plan to, citing a lack of knowledge and
perceived low risk. Only 19% have already acted, while 24% are considering
measures. Many misunderstand home insurance—41% wrongly believe solar panels
aren’t covered, while 51% mistakenly think flood damage from seas or large
rivers is included. Experts stress the need for greater awareness, as many
remain unprepared despite growing concerns over climate change. (Moticavtion insights and strategy) 23 January, 2025 (NORTH AMERICA) (USA) Nearly Half of U.S. Says
Healthcare Headed in Wrong Direction A
West Health-Gallup survey finds nearly half of Americans pessimistic about
Trump’s healthcare policies, with views split along party lines. Most doubt
key issues like Medicare and drug costs will be prioritized. Despite
political divides, Americans share concerns over affordability and support
expanding Medicare and mental health coverage. (Gallup
USA) 18 January, 2025 (USA) Faith On The Hill The 119th U.S. Congress (2025-27) continues a
gradual decline in Christian representation, with 87% identifying as
Christian, down from 92% a decade ago. Protestants make up 55%, while
Catholics account for 28%. Non-Christian representation remains small but
includes 32 Jewish members, four Muslims, four Hindus, and three Buddhists.
Despite a rise in religiously unaffiliated Americans (28%), only three
members of Congress fall into this category. Republicans are overwhelmingly
Christian (98%), while 75% of Democrats identify as Christian. First-term
members are slightly less Christian (78%) than returning members (88%). (PEW) 2 February, 2025 (USA) Highest Hopes For Trump On
Immigration; Lowest, On Unity Americans have mixed expectations for Trump's second
term, with confidence in his ability to control illegal immigration and
reduce crime but skepticism about improving healthcare, education, race
relations, and political unity. Expectations for keeping the U.S. out of war
have risen since 2016. (Gallup USA) 2 January, 2025 (USA) Age And Generation In The
119th Congress: Somewhat Younger, With Fewer Boomers And More Gen Xers The 119th U.S. Congress is getting younger, with the
House's median age dropping to 57.5 years and the Senate's to 64.7. Gen X now
surpasses Boomers in the House, while Boomers still dominate the Senate.
Millennials and Gen X are gaining seats, while the Silent Generation
continues to decline. The shift reflects broader demographic and political
changes, including fewer veteran lawmakers and increased diversity. (PEW) 16 January, 2025 (USA) 119th Congress’ LGBTQ Members
Include First Trans Representative The 119th U.S. Congress has 13 openly LGBTQ members,
including the first transgender representative, Sarah McBride. All are
Democrats, with 12 in the House and one in the Senate. While the total
remains unchanged from the last Congress, LGBTQ representation has grown
significantly since 2009. Notable firsts include Julie Johnson as the first
openly gay representative from Texas and Emily Randall as the first Hispanic
or Latina LGBTQ member. At the state level, multiple LGBTQ candidates won
seats, including the first transgender legislators in Hawaii, Iowa, and
Missouri, and the first openly gay Black men elected in Georgia and
Wisconsin. (PEW) 30 January, 2025 (Canada) Global Attitudes To
Housing And House Prices The Ipsos Housing Monitor reveals that
renters are generally less satisfied with their housing than homeowners, with
a noticeable gap in happiness across most markets. Many believe it’s harder
for younger people to afford housing compared to previous generations, and
only 19% see rising house prices as beneficial. Globally, 52% feel their
country's housing is on the wrong track, with a pessimistic outlook on future
improvements. Homeownership is considered essential for security, but many
renters are concerned about affordability. People generally expect house
prices and rent costs to continue rising, with widespread dissatisfaction
with the current housing situation. (Ipsos Canada) 29 January, 2025 (Brazil) Majority Of Americans Support
Deporting Immigrants Who Are In The US Illegally Most Americans (66%) support deporting illegal
immigrants, but support drops when methods like military use or family
separation are involved. Republicans back these policies more than Democrats
or independents. (Ipsos Brazil) 24 January, 2025 AUSTRALIA Risk Of Mortgage Stress Up
Again In December After Reserve Bank Again Decided Not To Cut Interest Rates As of December 2024, 27.9% of mortgage holders in
Australia are considered "At Risk" of mortgage stress, a rise for
the second consecutive month. This increase follows interest rate hikes and a
stagnant inflation rate. The number of "At Risk" mortgage holders
has grown by 788,000 since May 2022, and 17.4% are "Extremely At
Risk." A potential interest rate cut in February 2025 could reduce
mortgage stress. However, job loss remains a key factor in mortgage
affordability. (Roy Morgan) 29 January, 2025 Top 10 Issues Shaping The
2025 Federal Election: Cost Of Living And Crime On The Rise, Climate Change
Fades Ahead of Australia's 2025 Federal Election, voter
concerns have shifted, with rising focus on cost-of-living (up 7%) and crime
(up 10%). Key issues include managing expenses, reducing crime, and
addressing immigration, which has surged due to housing affordability
concerns. While issues like climate change and government transparency have
declined, crime has become a top priority, especially in Queensland,
Victoria, and the Northern Territory. The shift in priorities could influence
election outcomes, with the Coalition's emphasis on law and order resonating
in key marginal electorates. (Roy
Morgan) 23
January, 2025 MULTICOUNTRY STUDIES From Weight Loss To
Longevity, South Africa's Health Consciousness Takes Centre Stage This Year A
survey across 50 countries reveals that South Africans prioritize both
physical and mental well-being, with 92% recognizing the need to improve
health. They value nutrition (92%) and seek health information independently
(83%). South Africans are optimistic about longevity, with 48% expecting to
live to 100. This health-conscious mindset, combined with a desire for
autonomy in health decisions, presents opportunities for businesses in the
wellness sector to offer transparent, empowering products and services. The
findings emphasize the importance of tailored health strategies for the
diverse African market. (Ipsos
South Africa) 23
January, 2025 What Worries The World –
January 2025 Inflation remains the top global concern, with 32%
of respondents worried, though concerns have decreased from last year. Crime
and violence, healthcare, corruption, and taxes are rising issues in various
countries. South Korea saw a spike in concern over corruption, while
healthcare worry increased in North America. Israel's concern about taxes has
surged, now the second biggest issue. Economic sentiment is improving in
Argentina but declining sharply in France and Germany. Overall, inflation,
crime, and political corruption are key global worries.
(Ipsos Global)
24 January, 2025 Source: https://www.ipsos.com/en/what-worries-world The Ipsos Foundation:
Empowering Children Worldwide Through Education The
Ipsos Foundation, established in 2014, supports global education projects for
disadvantaged children, including refugees. With over €3M in grants, it has
funded 127 projects in 43 countries, improving access to education through
schools, resources, and support for children with illnesses. The foundation
relies on employee involvement and volunteer efforts to make a lasting
impact. (Ipsos Global) 23 January, 2025 Source: https://www.ipsos.com/en/ipsos-foundation-empowering-children-worldwide-through-education ASIA
882-884-43-01/Polls:
Survey: 51% Of Voters Want An Administration Not Led By LDP
The approval rating of Prime
Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s Cabinet has slipped, and more than half of voters
want an administration led by parties other than the Liberal Democratic
Party, an Asahi Shimbun survey showed. The nationwide telephone survey
conducted on Jan. 18 and 19 found Cabinet approval rating fell to 33 percent,
down from 36 percent in the previous survey conducted last December. The disapproval rating jumped
to 51 percent from 43 percent. Fifty-one percent of
respondents favored a non-LDP administration, surpassing the 34 percent who
preferred an LDP-led administration to continue governing Japan. After Ishiba took office in
October last year, his Cabinet’s approval rating was 46 percent. But it
dropped to 34 percent in November and has since been hovering around that low
level. Support has been particularly weak among younger generations, with
less than 20 percent of voters aged 18 to 29 and in their 30s approving the
Cabinet in the latest survey. During the previous
administration of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in August last year, The Asahi
Shimbun asked survey respondents which political party should be in charge of
the next administration. Opinions were closely divided,
with 42 percent picking “the LDP” and 43 percent saying “a party other than
the LDP.” In the latest survey, even
among those who approve of the Ishiba Cabinet, 33 percent of them chose “a
party other than the LDP.” Voters will be able to make
their voices heard in an Upper House election expected in summer. The survey asked respondents
which party they would vote for in the proportional representation portion if
an Upper House election were held now. Twenty-five percent chose the
LDP, followed by 15 percent each for the Democratic Party for the People and
the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan. These two parties are now tied
as the top choices in the opposition bloc. Nippon Ishin (Japan Innovation
Party) was next, picked by 8 percent of respondents. Twenty-one percent of all male
respondents chose the DPP, compared with just 9 percent of female
respondents. Last October, when the Ishiba
Cabinet was formed, The Asahi Shimbun asked a similar question about voters’
preferences in the proportional representation portion of a Lower House
selection. Thirty-six percent picked the
LDP, followed by 16 percent for the CDP, 9 percent for Nippon Ishin and only
4 percent for the DPP. The latest survey also asked
respondents to select the positive and negative aspects of Ishiba from the
same five options. For negative aspects, 27
percent said “nothing in particular,” followed by 23 percent who cited his
“leadership” and 19 percent mentioning his “image.” As for positive aspects, 64
percent of respondents chose “nothing in particular.” Only 20 percent of all
respondents have high expectations for Ishiba’s economic policies, while 69
percent are skeptical of his plans. The proportion of people who
have low expectations for Ishiba’s economic policies has increased since last
October. Back then, 35 percent of
respondents had positive expectations, while 47 percent were pessimistic. Before the LDP lost its
majority in the Oct. 27 Lower House election, the party was reeling over a
scandal concerning unreported political funds by its factions. Prosecutors this month exposed
additional unreported political funding within the LDP’s parliamentary group
in the Tokyo metropolitan assembly. Sixty-four percent of
respondents said their impression of the LDP had worsened since the
prosecutors’ report, while 26 percent said it had not. Even among LDP supporters, 50
percent said their impression had worsened. (Asahi Shimbun)
20 January, 2025
Source: https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/15592009
882-884-43-02/Polls:
Roughly 1 In 3 Pakistanis (35%) Are Optimistic About The
Success Of Government-PTI Negotiations In Resolving The Country's Political
Issues, With Men (40%) And Those With 12 And Better Years Of Education (37%)
Showing Higher Optimism: Gallup & Gilani Pakistan
(Gallup
Pakistan) 31
January, 2025 Source: https://gallup.com.pk/wp/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/31.01.2025.daily-pollEnglish.pdf
882-884-43-03/Polls:
65% Of Japan Firms Hire Foreign Workers To Cover Labor
Shortages
In the
multiple response survey, 56.8 percent of companies said foreign workers are
employed with the expectation that they will perform as well or better than
Japanese staff, while 18.5 percent cited efforts to promote diversity, the
labor ministry survey said. The survey
was the first conducted by the ministry on the employment and recruitment of
foreign workers, with the number continuing to increase amid Japan's graying
and declining population. The survey
of companies with foreign workers that have five or more employees, conducted
in October and November 2023, received responses from 3,534 businesses and
11,629 workers. Asked about
workplace challenges, 44.8 percent of the companies pointed to difficulties
in communicating with foreign workers. The survey
also found that 51.5 percent of foreign workers in Japan were introduced to
their jobs by agencies or individuals in their home countries, while 13.5
percent secured employment via agencies or individuals in Japan. Meanwhile,
82.5 percent of foreign workers said they did not face problems in their
workplaces. "We'd
like to continue conducting the survey and use it as a basic document for
policymaking," a ministry official said. (Kyodo
News)
26 December, 2024
Source: https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2024/12/a029896443dd-65-of-japan-firms-hire-foreign-workers-to-cover-labor-shortages.html
882-884-43-04/Polls:
More Than Half Of Pakistanis (53%) Completely Disagree With
The Government’s Claim Of A Decrease In Inflation, With A Higher Proportion
Of Women (59%) And Urban Residents (56%) Opposing The Claim: Gallup & Gilani
Pakistan
According to a survey conducted by Gallup
& Gilani Pakistan, more than half of Pakistanis (53%) completely disagree
with the government’s claim of a decrease in inflation, with a higher
proportion of women (59%) and urban residents (56%) opposing the claim.
Across gender: 59%females
completely disagree with the government’s claim of inflation decrease, 11%
higher than the 48% of males who feel the same.
(Gallup Pakistan)
29 January, 2025
Source: https://gallup.com.pk/wp/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/29.01.2025.daily-pollEnglish-8.pdf MENA
882-884-43-05/Polls:
Spotlight*Lebanon: Views On AI
In this report of the
Spotlight*Lebanon series, we delve into the topic of Artificial Intelligence
(AI) in the country. The report reveals that almost 3 in 5 have heard about
AI. However, among those who are aware of AI, only 3 in 10 feel they have a
good understanding of what it is and fewer know which types of products and
services use AI. The perceptions of AI
are a blend of optimism and caution. While 39% believe AI has the potential
to make the world a better place, 64% think it should be approached with
caution, seeing AI as potentially dangerous. Trust is another hurdle, where
28% are less confident in companies using AI compared to others. (Ipsos Lebanon)
27 January, 2025 Source: https://www.ipsos.com/en-lb/spotlightlebanon-views-ai
882-884-43-06/Polls:
Spotlight*KSA: Views On Brand Engagement
The Spotlight report shows
that digital platforms are at the heart of consumer-brand interactions, where
mobile apps and social media are at the forefront, providing effortless ways
to connect. This trend is especially driven by the younger generation. With
the abundance of digital touchpoints, consumers now feel more in control,
with 4 in 5 convinced they can influence brands. This sense of empowerment is
shifting consumer expectations, as people today demand more from brands. Over
half think brands should be involved in social issues, not just business, and
7 in 10 would avoid brands that aren’t socially responsible, even if they
like them. These expectations are especially strong among younger consumers,
who are calling for more accountability and ethical practices. (Ipsos Saudi Arabia) 2 February, 2025 Source: https://www.ipsos.com/en-sa/spotlightksa-views-brand-engagement AFRICA
882-884-43-07/Polls: Most Nigerians Not Aware Of
Any Government Support Programme
According to the study, the
economic downturn has severely impacted 93 percent of Nigerians, with 52
percent attributing the hardship to the soaring cost of living. To cope, many
have resorted to cutting back on personal expenses (27 percent), expanding their
businesses or working harder (26 percent), engaging in agriculture (13
percent), or starting side hustles (12 percent). These figures point to the
resilience of Nigerians as they adapt to the harsh economic environment. The
survey also identified the measures Nigerians believe could alleviate their
economic struggles. The most widely supported interventions included reducing
petrol pump prices (28 percent), creating more jobs (12 percent), reinstating
the fuel subsidy (11 percent), and implementing good governance and sound
policies (9 percent). These findings underscore the desire for comprehensive
and practical measures to reduce economic burdens.
While most Nigerians face
economic challenges, a small group (4 percent) reported experiencing positive
impacts. Among these respondents, 30 percent cited improved or booming
businesses as a key factor. This resilience reflects Nigerians'
entrepreneurial spirit and adaptability. For instance, Peter Chijioke, a
civil servant mentioned in the Blueprint Online publication (October 18,
2024), emphasized the importance of diversifying business models, reducing
operational costs, and seeking funding opportunities. Similarly, Accountant
Clement Adeboye also cited in the same publication, how his family adapted by
switching his children from private to public schools and adopting bulk
purchasing to manage household expenses. Despite these adaptive
strategies, the survey also highlighted a significant gap in public awareness
and participation in government support programs. Only 18 percent of
respondents were aware of any government initiatives, with grants (7
percent), federal government loan schemes (5 percent), and national food
palliatives (4 percent) being the most frequently mentioned programs.
However, 46 percent cited other single support initiatives, while 32 percent
were unable to identify specific programs, suggesting potential issues in
program branding, outreach, or communication. Further findings revealed
that only 19 percent of Nigerians reported benefiting from government
interventions. The highest beneficiaries were from the North-Central and
North-East regions (28 percent and 29 percent, respectively), while those
from the South-West (91 percent) and South-South (88 percent) regions
reported the least benefit. This regional disparity indicates an uneven
distribution or accessibility of government programs. (NOI Polls)
27 January, 2025 Source:
https://www.noi-polls.com/post/most-nigerians-not-aware-of-any-government-support-programme
882-884-43-08/Polls:
Zimbabweans Say Drug And Substance Abuse Is Rampant, See It
As A Society-Wide Challenge
Drug abuse is a problem in
many countries; globally, the number of illicit drug users was estimated at
296 million in 2021 (Statista, 2024). While reliable statistics on drug
use are not available for Zimbabwe, anecdotal evidence suggests a growing crisis
(Marandure, Mhizha, Wilson, & Nhunzvi, 2023; Mandura, 2023; Zimbabwean,
2021). In 2020, Harare Central Psychiatric Hospital recorded a sharp increase
in drug-related admissions, from 150 cases in 2019 to 825 (Africanews, 2022).
By 2021, the Zimbabwe Civil Liberties and Drug Network reported that drug
abuse accounted for 60% of psychiatric admissions, with 80% of these
involving young people aged 16-25 (Mandura, 2023). The Ministry of Health and
Child Care (2023) also underscored the burden on the health system,
attributing a significant proportion of recent mental health hospitalisations
to drug abuse. Apart from the detrimental
health effects of drug and substance abuse, research suggests a mutually
reinforcing relationship between drug abuse and unemployment, i.e. while drug
abuse makes it harder to get and hold a job, high unemployment levels as seen
during Zimbabwe’s prolonged economic crisis also contribute to the problem of
drug and substance abuse (Nolte-Troha, Roser, Henkel, Scherbaum, Koller,
& Franke, 2023; Pindula, 2019). In 2024, President Emmerson
Mnangagwa launched a Multi-Sectoral Drug and Substance Abuse Plan (2024-2030)
that aims to strengthen enforcement of anti-drug laws and disrupt drug supply
chains while also providing for prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation
services (Sunday News, 2025). The Cabinet has also approved the principles of
a Drug and Substance Agency Bill that would establish a specialised anti-drug
agency (Mutize, 2024). Public information campaigns have exhorted youth to
take leadership in the fight against drug and substance abuse (Nyamwanza,
2023), and traditional leaders have addressed their communities about the
problem (Zimbabwean Mail, 2025). How do Zimbabweans see the
prevalence of drug abuse in their communities, and which strategies do they
propose to address the problem? In the Afrobarometer Round 10
survey, a large majority of Zimbabweans report that drug and substance abuse
is widespread in their communities. To tackle this issue, survey respondents
favour three key strategies: arresting and imposing severe penalties on drug
offenders, educating the public about the dangers of drug abuse, and
intensifying efforts to curb drug trafficking. Most citizens say they trust
schools and family members to combat drug abuse, while only half express
trust in the police to play an effective role. A strong majority also believe
that ordinary people have the power to help fight drug abuse in their communities. (Afrobarometer) 27
January, 2025 WEST EUROPE
882-884-43-09/Polls: The Cost Of Living Continues
To Be The Most Important Issue Facing London
The cost of living continues to
be seen as the most important issue facing London (75% - no change since
2023) by Londoners. The top five most important issues are: ·
Cost of living (75%, N/C since
2023) ·
Housing affordability (59%, +5
ppts since 2023) ·
Crime and policing (55%, +8
ppts since 2023) ·
The NHS/ GP services (48%, +1
ppts since 2023) ·
Homelessness and rough sleeping
(46%, +1 since 2023) Nearly three in ten (29%) said
that women’s safety, a new answer code for the 2024 survey, is an important
issue facing London today. London's
housing supply and affordability Seven in ten Londoners (72%)
say their rent or mortgage payments have increased in the previous 12
months. Renters are at the forefront of
the housing crisis, with eight in ten Londoners (80%) who rent their homes
from private or social landlords saying they think there are not enough
affordable homes in London. One in four renters (24%) agree they might have
to leave London in the following 12 months to be able to afford to
rent. Three in five (60%) Londoners
say they would support new homes being built in their local area (+1 ppts
since 2023), while 18% oppose new homes being built in their local area (+1
ppts since 2023). Support for new homes being built rises to 74% if the new
homes are affordable to local people. ·
56% support new homes being
built on the grey belt - defined as “parts of greenbelt land which have
previously been built on, such as car parks and old petrol stations” – with
18% opposed. ·
There is less support for
building new homes if they were private rented housing (36% support, 33%
oppose) or if they were high-rise flats (34% support, 40% oppose). London's
institutions and devolution Nearly half of Londoners (46%)
support devolving more powers to London (no change since 2023), while
21% oppose more devolution. Support for transferring more powers to London
local and regional government is higher for specific policies, especially
housing and public transport (each supported by 61%, no change since 2023).
Yet half (49%) agree the Mayor of London and London boroughs have enough
power to develop solutions that work for communities in their areas. Other
key findings from the survey ·
A majority of Londoners (65%)
are satisfied with their local area as a place to live, and strongly feel
they belong to their local area (69%). ·
Seven in ten (70%) Londoners
who are in work are satisfied with the flexibility of their job, while 68%
are satisfied with their work-life balance. ·
Most Londoners (65%, -2 ppts
since 2023) continue to see long waiting times as the biggest problem facing
the healthcare system in London. ·
A majority (76%) feel safe
travelling outside in their local area during the day, while just under half
feel safe after dark (48%). (Ipsos UK) 3 February, 2025 Source:
https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/cost-living-continues-be-most-important-issue-facing-london
882-884-43-10/Polls:
6 In 10 Britons Hold Unfavourable Opinion Of Donald Trump And Elon
Musk
Favourability
towards Trump and Musk ·
63% of Britons hold an
unfavourable opinion of president-elect Donald Trump (+5 points from
November), 22% favourable (-3). ·
Meanwhile, 20% hold favourable
views of current President Joe Biden and 44% unfavourable. ·
Younger Britons are more
favourable towards Trump than older Britons. Among those aged 18-34, 31% are
favourable and 47% unfavourable. Among those aged 55+, 15% are favourable and
72% unfavourable. ·
53% of Reform UK voters are
favourable towards Trump and 30% unfavourable.
·
A similar pattern is observed
with Elon Musk, with 63% unfavourable, although fewer Britons are favourable
(17%). ·
Public
perceptions of a second Trump presidency ·
The British public are more
likely to think Trump’s impending presidency will have a negative rather than
positive impact on a host of issues. They are likely to think his presidency
will be negative for global security / conflict (53%), political stability in
other countries (non-US) (52%) and political stability in the US (51%). ·
Keiran Pedley, Director of UK
Politics at Ipsos said: These findings show that
the British public continue to hold a broadly unfavourable opinion of Donald
Trump, and they tend to think his presidency will have a negative impact on
the UK economy, security and the relationship between the UK and US generally.
The public also hold similarly unfavourable views of Elon Musk too.
Interestingly, even Reform voters, who are net positive towards Trump, are
divided in their views of Musk. (Ipsos UK) 18 January, 2025 Source:
https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/6-10-britons-hold-unfavourable-opinion-donald-trump-and-elon-musk
882-884-43-11/Polls:
Reading, Music, Series... The French People's Favorite
Activities On The Train
The
train, a place full of cultural and leisure activities “Dreaming, looking at
the landscape”, the favorite activity of travelers! Regardless of age, it appears in the top 3 of the most
practiced activities and even comes out on top among 35-64 year olds and 65
year olds and over. "Going on social
networks" and "listening
to music" also hold their place on the podium with
a high level of practice declared by those under 35 and those aged 35-64.
Those aged 65 and over focus more on reading and resting. At the same time, more
than three out of five workers say they work when they
take the train and more than one in three even say they do so systematically
or often.
There is no shortage of
activities on board : the French say they
frequently practice on average nearly 7 different activities when they travel
by train (6.9). Those under 25 even declare more than 8 compared to almost 5
for those aged 65 and over. Out of 19 activities tested, 13 are practiced on
the train by more than one in two French people. The
train, a space where travelers combine total disconnection and hyper
connection Social networks or reading
books? Both! This oscillation between
hyper connection and total disconnection is present both among long-distance
travelers (TGV, Intercités, etc.) and those of everyday life (RER,
TER). The
train, a “reading space” chosen by more than one in two French people
On average, French train
passengers read almost four books per year during
their train journeys. On
the train, the French have become big consumers of screens Nearly half of French people
watch series, films or documentaries when they travel by train (47% overall) and this even concerns two thirds of those
under 35. More specifically, 38% say they
frequently watch series when they are on the train and 37% watch films. In 2024, on average, the
French watched 10 episodes of a series during their
train journeys (14.1 for 18-24 year-olds).
Music,
in all circumstances
The
game is growing very fast
Leisure
activities on board the train, a valuable interlude for the balance of
passengers Practicing cultural activities
on the train is now a real break for travelers: 74%
of French people who take the train believe they have taken advantage of this
time by practicing cultural and leisure activities. Far from popular belief, for
more than seven out of ten daily travellers, the time spent on the train is
important for their personal balance. For one in four,
it is even essential! Travel
companions, awkward moments... going deeper into the daily lives of French
people on the train Which personality would the French like to share a moment
with on the train? The French who take the train
are ready to share this interlude with cultural figures, but which ones? The
French put Thomas Pesquet (19%) in
first place, probably one of the greatest "travelers" with his
journey of almost 400 days in space. But comedians and actors
dominate the top 10 for the most part, with Omar
Sy and Florence Foresti (second
ex-aequo), ahead of Pierre Niney (4th ) , Fabrice Luchini (6th ex -aequo) and Gad
Elmaleh (10th ) . Cyril
Lignac wins a very nice 5th place. The singers are not left out
with Mylène Farmer who is
part of the top 10 (6th ex aequo)
and Julien Doré (9th ) .
Each
age group has its top 3! Those under 25 choose Pierre
Niney ahead of Léna Situation and Angèle, while those over 65 would prefer to
travel first with Fabrice Luchini ahead of Florence Foresti and Thomas
Pesquet. Cultural
and leisure practices are not without causing a certain number of comical or
embarrassing situations... A small
moment of embarrassment: this is what happened to almost one in four French
people on the train who admit, for example, to having been caught watching a
film or series over the shoulder of their neighbour (26%) or who realised
that the film or music they were listening to with headphones was in fact
playing at full volume (22%). Changing activities to seduce:
everyone's tastes are not always well assumed by everyone! 25%
of French people admit to having already changed their leisure activity to
appear more cultured, more serious to others. 24% even
say they have changed activities or pretended to be interested in their
neighbor's activity to start a conversation, a practice particularly
widespread among men under 25 (42%). (Ipsos France) 28 January, 2025
882-884-43-12/Polls: Spain Leads Global Concern About Housing: 74% Believe That Not
Enough Attention Is Paid
Spain
leads global concern about housing: 74% believe that not enough attention is
paid With rental rates on the rise
and the growing difficulty of accessing home ownership due to the continuous
increase in prices, the public debate on housing in Spain is already at the
top of the agenda of institutions, driven by recent government measures such
as the PERTE on housing and the divergent political positions on the
matter. The first Ipsos Housing Monitor
report reveals that, worldwide, Spain is the country that pays the least
attention to housing. 74% of the Spanish population believes that not enough
attention is being paid to this issue. In fact, the
Spanish population is also the most dissatisfied in Europe with their
personal housing situation , with less than half (48%)
of them being satisfied with their current home. In this regard, and when asked
whether their country is on the right or wrong path to solve housing
inequalities, almost 8 out of 10 people in Spain (76%) think that
the right path is not being followed. At the same time, almost half of the
population (49%) says that the Government is not in a position to manage
housing-related problems. Generation gap: young people are more dissatisfied Satisfaction with the housing
situation reveals a marked generational contrast. While those
over 50 express a considerable level of satisfaction (54%), those under 35
express deep dissatisfaction with their situation, with only 39% being
satisfied. This disparity highlights a gap between the
experiences and perspectives of different generations in relation to access
to and quality of housing. But is
access to housing for young people more difficult than it was 20 years ago? 70%
of the Spanish population agrees with this, with this perception increasing
among those under 35 years of age (74%). The main reason for access to
housing is clearly the price , in line with the global
perception. More than half of Spaniards point to the cost of renting and
buying a home as their main obstacle in terms of housing. In addition, 80%
of citizens consider that the prices for buying a property have risen in the
last year and 71% agree that they will continue to rise in the next 12 months .
With these perspectives, it is normal that the
majority (77%) of the population agrees with the idea that the professional
success of young people will not guarantee them adequate housing. Spanish tenants see home ownership as an unattainable dream There is a marked disparity
between the aspirations and expectations of Spanish renters regarding home
ownership. While a large majority want to own a home
(68%), more than half believe they will never be able to afford it (56%) ,
evidencing a deep pessimism about affordability. Moreover, 40% of citizens say
they are worried about their ability to pay their mortgage or rent, making
it the European country most concerned about
its ability to pay for the home in which it lives. Again, it
is young people who most report having this difficulty (51%). Challenges and future of housing There is a widespread
perception of a housing shortage (57%) for both rent and purchase. This creates a situation
of high demand, worsening the feeling of low supply, which not only drives up
prices, but can also negatively affect the dynamic between tenants and
landlords. In fact, there is concern about the protection of tenants' rights,
with it being claimed that current regulations favour landlords. The Spanish population (59%)
is in favour of building more housing to solve the problem . However, three
out of four are sceptical about the viability of building enough housing to
meet current demand . This duality between support for
the proposed solution and doubts about its effective implementation reflects
the complexity of the problem. Adding to this pessimistic
context is the widespread perception of the government's
ability to resolve housing problems in Spain, a point where a generational
gap can once again be seen . Those over 50 years of age
have less confidence in its ability to act, while younger people expect, to a
greater extent, government solutions. The dream house for the Spanish population The culture of each country is
a major factor to consider when talking about the ideal home of each society.
This is evident when in Spain, the ideal home for a majority of the
population (36%) is an apartment in the city, a preference notably greater
than in the rest of Europe. Secondly, we find that a
single-family home in a rural area is the ideal home for 20% of the
population. For 15%, a detached house in the suburbs or in a housing estate
is the ideal home; while for 13%, a detached house in the city is the ideal
home, and for the same percentage, an apartment in the suburbs. When choosing a new home,
Spaniards prioritize the following criteria: value for money (61%); good
location (50%); good infrastructure (30%); low crime rate and access to
public transport (27%) and with outdoor space (26%) (Ipsos Spain) 28 January, 2025
882-884-43-13/Polls: Dutch People Concerned About Housing Damage Due To Climate
Change
More than half take
no action on climate risks It is striking that more than half of the respondents (57%)
have not yet taken measures to reduce these risks and do not plan to do so.
Almost a quarter (24%) are considering taking action in the short term, while
only 19% have already taken steps. A lack of knowledge about possible
measures and the perception that the chance of damage is small are important
reasons for the lack of action. In addition, there is uncertainty about the coverage of home
insurance. Although damage to solar panels is usually included in the
insurance, 41% of respondents do not think so. At the same time, 51% wrongly
assume that flooding by sea or large rivers is covered. Many Dutch people remain hesitant when it comes to measures
against climate risks, despite growing concerns. "A home is often the
largest private asset, and yet many people do not take measures to protect it
properly," says Frank van Wessel, deputy director of private claims at asr . He points out the
importance of knowledge and awareness. Although the news is full of reports
about climate change and disasters every day, there seems to be a gap between
concerns and actual action. Together with advisors, asr . is committed to better informing people about what they
can do to protect their homes against the consequences of extreme weather. (Motivaction insights and strategy) 23 January, 2025 NORTH AMERICA
882-884-43-14/Polls: Nearly Half Of U.S. Says Healthcare Headed In Wrong
Direction
Nearly
half of the U.S. public (46%) says the country is headed in the wrong
direction when it comes to President-elect Donald Trump’s policies to lower
the cost of healthcare, and about four in 10 say this for the cost of
prescription drugs, according to a new West
Health-Gallup
survey. About three in 10 Americans say the country is headed in the right
direction on either question, and about one in four say they are unsure about
the future of healthcare policy under the new administration.
The
West Health-Gallup Postelection Healthcare Survey of 3,583 U.S. adults was
fielded Nov. 11-18, 2024, via web using the Gallup Panel. Half of Americans Pessimistic
About New Administration’s Policies to Bring Down Healthcare and Drug Costs When
asked whether they are optimistic or pessimistic that the new Trump
administration and Congress will enact policies to bring down the costs of
healthcare and prescription drugs, Americans are more pessimistic than
optimistic. Overall, 48% are pessimistic, while 32% are optimistic and one in
five are “neutral.” For prescription drugs, 45% are pessimistic, 34%
optimistic and 21% neutral. Over
half of independents (54%) report they are pessimistic about the new
administration’s ability to enact policy that will reduce the cost of
healthcare, and 49% are pessimistic that prescription drug costs will drop.
About a quarter are either optimistic or neutral.
About Six in 10 Americans Do Not
Believe Trump Administration Will Prioritize Key Healthcare Issues Majorities
of Americans do not believe that the Trump administration will prioritize
several specific healthcare issues during his second term. These include
protecting Medicare and Social Security, increasing access to mental
healthcare, lowering drug costs, capping the price of insulin, and expanding
Medicare negotiation. More
than nine in 10 Democrats and at least six in 10 independents do not think
the Trump administration will prioritize these issues, while large majorities
of Republicans disagree.
Partisan Optimism Versus
Pessimism About the Future of Access to Affordable Care Flipped After the
Election Just
under four in 10 Americans say access to affordable healthcare (38%) and to
affordable mental healthcare (38%) in the U.S. will improve in the next five
years, while over 60% each say neither is likely to improve. Americans’
overall pessimism about future access to affordable healthcare and mental
healthcare is unchanged from September. Independents are only slightly more
likely to lean pessimistic than they were before the election. Democrats' and
Republicans' views have shifted significantly, however. Before
the election, 57% of Democrats believed access to affordable care was very or
somewhat likely to improve in the next five years, compared with only about a
third of Republicans. In the most recent poll, more than seven in 10
Republicans think access to affordable healthcare and mental healthcare is
likely to improve, while one in 10 Democrats do.
Implications The
impending change in political leadership after the 2024 U.S. presidential
election has greatly affected views on the future of healthcare access and
affordability for Democrats and Republicans, but not political independents.
The average U.S. adult is pessimistic about the new administration’s
healthcare policies aimed at reducing cost. Despite
the political divide, Americans experience the consequences of a high-priced
healthcare system in similar ways. Prior research shows that a third or more
of Republicans, Democrats and independents are concerned that their household
will be unable
to pay for needed healthcare.
Medicare availability is also a top concern, with 71% of Democrats, 66% of
independents and 62% of Republicans under the age of 65 being worried or
extremely worried that Medicare
will no longer be available when
they become eligible. And more than half of Democrats and Republicans alike
reported that not
enough attention was given to healthcare during the 2024 presidential campaign. Americans
are also aligned on many healthcare policy issues. For example, recent
polling showed that both Republicans and Democrats agree that federal law should require health
insurance companies to provide coverage for mental healthcare and
substance-abuse treatment that is equal to what they provide for physical
healthcare. More than eight in 10 Americans say they support expanding
Medicare to include home care, including 95% of Democrats, 83% of
independents and 77% of Republicans -- a proposal advanced by Kamala Harris
during her presidential campaign. Americans
may be divided on who they believe will best lead the country toward an
improved healthcare system, yet they remain united in their desire for better
policies that tackle the challenge of affording and accessing needed care in
the country today. (Gallup
USA) 15
January, 2025 Source: https://news.gallup.com/poll/654704/nearly-half-says-healthcare-headed-wrong-direction.aspx
882-884-43-15/Polls: Faith On The Hill
Overall, there will be 461 Christian members of Congress when
the 119th Congress meets, compared with 469 in the previous Congress and 491
during the 2015-17 session. It will be the lowest number of Christians since
the start of the 2009-2011 congressional session, the first for which Pew
Research Center conducted this analysis.1 (This analysis does not include three vacant – or soon to be
vacant – seats whose eventual occupants are unknown, including the Ohio
Senate seat of Vice President-elect JD Vance.) And yet, at 87%, Christians still make up the lion’s share of
the Congress, far exceeding the Christian share of all U.S. adults, which
stands at 62% after several decades of decline. In 2007, 78% of American
adults were Christian, according to Pew Research Center’s Religious Landscape Study from that year, and in
the early 1960s more than nine-in-ten U.S. adults were Christian, according
to historical Gallup polling. The new Congress is also more religious than the general
population by another, related measure: Nearly three-in-ten Americans (28%)
are religiously unaffiliated, meaning they are atheist or agnostic or say
their religion is “nothing in particular.” But less than 1% of Congress falls
into this category, with three religiously unaffiliated members: incoming
Reps. Yassamin Ansari of Arizona and Emily Randall of Washington, both of
whom are Democrats, and incoming Rep. Abraham Hamadeh of Arizona, a Republican.2 While the share of the U.S. public that is religiously
unaffiliated – sometimes called “nones” – has risen rapidly in recent decades
(from 16% in 2007 to 28% in our recent polling), the corresponding share of
Congress has remained miniscule. Prior to the 119th session, the only member
of Congress who was categorized as religiously unaffiliated in our analyses
was Kyrsten Sinema, independent of Arizona, who served from 2013 through the
Congress that is just ending. (She did not run for reelection in 2024.)3 Pew Research Center’s analysis is based on data from CQ Roll
Call, a publisher in Washington, D.C., that has closely covered Congress for
decades. Breakdown
by denomination Of
the 461 Christians in the 119th Congress, 295
are Protestant, a decrease of eight from the previous
session. Partial historical data suggests that Protestants had a much larger
presence in Congress a few decades ago, including 398 members in 1961. But
there have been fewer than 300 Protestants in six of the last nine sessions
over the last decade and a half. That said, Protestants continue to make up a
disproportionately high share of the 119th Congress (55% of members) when
compared with the U.S. adult population (40%). Baptists are the
largest category of Protestants in the new Congress, with 75 members (14.1% of
Congress). That’s eight more Baptists than in the prior session. The next largest Protestant groups in the new Congress are
Methodists (26 members), Presbyterians (26), Episcopalians (22) and Lutherans
(19). These four groups have had shrinking U.S. memberships in recent decades
and now have a considerably smaller presence in Congress than they used to.
For example, in the 112th Congress of 2011-13, there were 51 Methodists, 45
Presbyterians, 41 Episcopalians and 26 Lutherans. Of the 295 Protestants in Congress, 101 do not specify a
particular denomination or denominational family, instead giving broad or
vague answers such as “Protestant,” “Christian” or “evangelical Protestant.”
This is six fewer who identify in those ways than in the last Congress, but
the overall trend during the last decade has been for increasing numbers of
U.S. representatives and senators to give these kinds of answers. By
comparison, only 58 members said they were “just Christians” or gave
nonspecific, Protestant descriptions of their religious affiliation at the
start of the 114th Congress in 2015. The new Congress also has 150 Catholics, two more
than in the last session. Still, that’s lower than the average number of
Catholic members over the last decade and a half. More often than not, since
the 2009-2011 session, congressional Catholics have numbered in the 160s.
Additionally, the new Congress will have nine members of the
Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (widely known as Mormons). That
is the same number as in the last two Congresses. Seventy-one members of Congress do not identify as Christians,
including 32 who are Jewish. Although
that is one fewer Jewish member of Congress than in the last session, Jews
continue to make up a higher share of Congress (6%) than of the overall adult
population (2%).4
There also will be four Hindus in the House
– two more than in the previous session. Three won reelection in 2024 – Ro
Khanna, D-Calif.; Raja Krishnamoorthi, D-Ill.; and Shri Thanedar, D-Mich. –
and one, Suhas Subramanyam, D-Va., will be a freshman. Three Buddhists are set to serve in the new Congress, an increase of
one. They include incumbents Rep. Hank Johnson, D-Ga., and Sen. Mazie Hirono,
D-Hawaii, and freshman Rep. Derek Tran, D-Calif. In addition, there are three members who identify as Unitarian
Universalists. All three are returning for another term:
Reps. Deborah Ross, D-N.C., Ami Bera, D-Calif., and Judy Chu, D-Calif. Twenty-one members of the new Congress are categorized as
having unknown religious affiliation, meaning they declined to identify their
religion; chose to identify as “unspecified”; or were unable to be reached.
In the incoming 119th Congress, Protestants make up majorities
of both the Senate (59%) and the House (55% of voting members). Baptists, the largest Protestant subgroup, comprise a slightly
higher share of the House than the Senate (15% vs. 12%). Presbyterians, on the other hand, make up a higher share of
the Senate than the House (11% vs. 3%). The same is true for Episcopalians,
Lutherans and Congregationalists. Catholics are set to have a wider presence in the House than
in the Senate (29% vs. 24%) during the 119th Congress, while all six Orthodox
Christians in Congress are in the House. Looking at non-Christians in Congress, Jews make up a higher
share of the Senate (9%) than the House (5%). All the Muslims, Hindus and
Unitarian Universalists in Congress are in the House, as is the sole member
of Congress who identifies as a humanist, Jared Huffman, D-Calif. Of the 10 senators who identify with a non-Christian religion,
nine are Jewish and one is Buddhist (Mazie Hirono of Hawaii, a Democrat).
Nearly all Republicans in the 119th Congress (265 out of 270,
or 98%) identify as Christian, compared with a smaller but still substantial
majority of Democrats who are Christian (196 out of 262, or 75%). The
congressional rosters of both parties are more heavily Christian than the
U.S. population overall (62%).6 Protestants make up a higher share of Republicans than
Democrats in Congress (68% vs. 42%), while Catholics form a higher proportion
of congressional Democrats than Republicans (32% vs. 25%). All nine Latter-day Saints in Congress are Republicans. The
one member of Congress who identifies as a Messianic Jew, Rep. Anna Paulina
Luna of Florida, is also a Republican. Of the five congressional Republicans who are not Christian,
three are Jewish (Reps. Craig Goldman of Texas, David Kustoff of Tennessee
and Max Miller of Ohio). One is categorized as religiously unaffiliated, and
one is categorized as “Don’t know/refused.” Of the 66 congressional Democrats who are not Christian, 29
are Jewish, four are Muslim, four are Hindu, three are Unitarian
Universalists, three are Buddhist, two are religiously unaffiliated (Reps.
Yassamin Ansari of Arizona and Emily Randall of Washington), one
self-identifies as a humanist (Rep. Jared Huffman of California), and 20 did
not specify a religion.
There are 73 newcomers to the 119th Congress, and they make up
about one-seventh of the entire body. These newcomers are less likely than
the returning members of Congress to be Christian (78% vs. 88%). First-term members of Congress are also less likely than
returning members to be Protestant (47% vs. 57%). And among Protestants in
Congress, 15% of newcomers describe themselves in broad or vague terms as
“Christian,” “Protestant,” “evangelical Christian” or “evangelical
Protestant,” compared with a slightly higher share of returning members (20%)
who are in this “Unspecified/other” Protestant category. First-term members of Congress and returning members are about
equally likely to be Catholic (29% vs. 28%). They are also equally likely to
call themselves Episcopalian (4%). No first-termers are Orthodox Christians. All six Orthodox
Christians in the 119th Congress are returning members. Looking at non-Christians, Jews make up about equal shares of
newcomers and returning members to Congress. Other non-Christian first-term members of Congress include one
Buddhist (Rep. Derek Tran, D-Calif.), one Muslim (Rep. Lateefah Simon,
D-Calif.), one Hindu (Rep. Suhas Subramanyam, D-Va.), and three “nones”
(Democratic Reps. Yassamin Ansari of Arizona and Emily Randall of Washington,
and Republican Rep. Abraham Hamadeh of Arizona). CORRECTION (Jan. 7, 2025): A previous title to the table
“Newcomers to 119th Congress nearly as Christian as returning members”
inaccurately characterized the share of Protestants in the 119th Congress (PEW)
2 February, 2025
Source: https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2025/01/02/faith-on-the-hill-2025/
882-884-43-16/Polls: Highest Hopes For Trump On Immigration; Lowest, On Unity
Americans have mixed expectations
for what President-elect Donald Trump will accomplish in his second term,
foreseeing success on seven policy goals while doubting he’ll achieve eight
others. Expectations are highest that Trump will control illegal
immigration, which 68% of U.S. adults predict he’ll do. Smaller majorities
believe he will reduce unemployment, keep the country safe from terrorism,
improve the economy, keep the country out of war, cut people’s taxes or
reduce the crime rate. Conversely, majorities of Americans do not think Trump will heal
political divisions in the country, improve the quality of the environment,
improve the healthcare system, improve race relations, improve education,
substantially reduce the federal budget deficit, improve conditions for
minorities and the poor, or reduce the prices of groceries and other items.
These results are from a Dec. 2-18 Gallup Poll in which 51% of Americans, slightly more than in December 2016, said they approve of the
way Trump is handling the presidential transition. Partisanship strongly influences Americans’ expectations for
Trump’s accomplishments in his upcoming term.
Trump II vs. Trump I Gallup also measured Americans’ expectations for Trump during the 2016 transition period, asking about 16 of the 17 issues rated today -- all but
reducing prices. Far more Americans now than in 2016 believe Trump will keep the
nation out of war, rising 17 percentage points to 55%. By contrast, in 2016,
the majority (57%) doubted he would keep the country out of war. This shift
likely reflects Trump’s claims that the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas wars
would not have occurred had he been president, that he will end both quickly,
and that he started “no new wars” in his first term. In addition, belief that he will control illegal immigration has
increased nine points since 2016, and there has been an eight-point increase
for reducing the crime rate and a six-point increase for improving race
relations. Predictions for the latter still tilt negative, however. Americans are less sure today than in 2016 that Trump will
improve national conditions in the areas of healthcare and education, with
the optimistic percentages slipping 12 and 10 points, respectively. As a
result, whereas majorities of Americans were hopeful about Trump on these
issues in 2016, the opposite is true today. There has also been a six-point
decline to
Trump vs. Previous Presidents Gallup has measured Americans’ issue predictions during the
transition period for all incoming presidents since Ronald Reagan in 1980, as
well as for three presidents entering a second term: George W. Bush in
January 2005, Barack Obama in 2012 and Trump in 2024. Given differences in the specific issues rated for each, along
with the number of issues measured, it is not possible to say precisely which
president or president-elect inspired the most optimism about his upcoming
term. However, Obama in 2008 stands out for earning the highest scores of all
other presidents on eight of the 11 issues for which comparisons to Trump are
available. That is by far the largest proportion of record scores received by
any incoming president among the ratings reviewed for this report. In the current poll, Trump earns the highest rating of incoming
presidents on two issues -- controlling illegal immigration and reducing the
crime rate. Other incoming or returning presidents, including Trump in 2016,
had the top score on no more than one issue:
See the accompanying PDF for the full issue-outlook trends for
Trump and all prior presidents, plus detailed tabulations showing results by
party ID and other subgroups for Trump’s current ratings. Bottom Line Americans have a modest outlook for what the second Trump
administration might achieve, predicting success in about as many areas as
they doubt it will occur. Still, they have notably high expectations for him
with respect to controlling illegal immigration and reducing crime -- both
relative to their expectations for him on other issues and historically. More
Americans anticipate he’ll succeed in these domains than did so for any other
evaluated president. And although confidence in Trump's ability to keep the
nation out of war is not as pronounced as confidence in him on several other
objectives, the sharp increase in Americans believing he’ll prevail in this
could be important to fulfilling expectations for his second term. Achieving one's goals may be the straight path to a strong
presidential legacy, but making progress in areas where it is least expected
could also have an impact. In this regard, improving national conditions in
education, healthcare, the environment, race relations and public unity could
serve as key objectives for Trump's second term. (Gallup USA)
2 January, 2025
Source: https://news.gallup.com/poll/654746/highest-hopes-trump-immigration-lowest-unity.aspx
882-884-43-17/Polls: Age And Generation In The 119th Congress: Somewhat Younger,
With Fewer Boomers And More Gen Xers
The U.S. Congress is getting younger – on the whole, at least
– according to a Pew Research Center analysis of representatives and senators
in the new 119th Congress. The median age of voting members of the House of
Representatives is now 57.5 years. That’s down from 57.9 at the start of the 118th Congress (2023-25), 58.9 in the 117th
Congress (2021-23), 58.0 in the 116th (2019-21) and 58.4 in the 115th
(2017-19).
This analysis of the newly seated House and Senate includes
members who were sworn in on Jan. 3, 2025, the first day of the new Congress.
It does not include West Virginia Sen. Jim Justice, who was sworn in on Jan. 14. How
we did this
Sixty-one new House members were elected for the first time in
2024; three others are former congressmen coming back for a second stint. A large majority of the 119th House’s first-time members (48
of 61) are below the chamber’s median age of 57.5. The median age of new
representatives is 50.2, compared with 46.3 among new members in the previous
Congress. About half (30) of the first-time members are in their 30s and
40s; the youngest, Rep. Brandon Gill, R-Texas, will turn 31 in
February. At the other end of the age spectrum, two freshman representatives
(George Latimer of New York and Sylvester Turner of Texas, both Democrats)
are in their early 70s. In the Senate, the 11 new members seated as of Jan. 3 have a
median age of 53.9, well below that of the Senate as a whole. Four of the new
senators (three Democrats and one Republican) are in their 40s, while one –
Tim Sheehy, R-Mont. – is in his 30s. Justice, who is 73, became the oldest
“freshman” after he was sworn in on Jan. 14. Differences
by party In the House, the 30 newly elected first-time Republican
representatives skew a bit older than their 31 Democratic counterparts: The
median age of freshmen House Republicans is 51.7, compared with 50.2 for
first-time Democrats in that chamber. Overall, the median age of House Democrats is 57.6, while the
median age of House Republicans is 57.5. In the Senate, the median age of all Democrats is 66.0, a bit
higher than the median for Republicans (64.5). New
Congress has more Millennials and Gen Xers – and fewer Boomers Another way to look at the age of the new Congress is through the lens of generation. And this year marks a notable
generational transition: Baby Boomers are no
longer the largest generation in the House. As recently
as two Congresses ago, Boomers (those born between 1946 and 1964) were a
majority of both senators and representatives. On the first day of the 119th Congress, Boomers still
comprised a solid majority of the Senate (60 out of 99 senators) but
accounted for just 170 House members, or 39%. Gen X
takes the House
In the House, the largest generation is now Generation X (born
between 1965 and 1980), with 180 members, or 41%. Sixty-six representatives, or 15%, are Millennials (1981-96);
and 17, or 4%, belong to the Silent Generation (1928-45). One representative,
Florida Democrat Maxwell Frost, belongs to Generation Z
(those born after 1996).
Boomers
keep the Senate Over
in the Senate, there are only 28 Gen Xers, along with six Silents and five
Millennials. Since the minimum age to be a senator is 30, no Gen Zers are yet
eligible to serve there. In addition, as of Jan. 3:
The changing generational profile of Congress is linked to
other shifts on Capitol Hill. For example, the slow decline in lawmakers who
are members of the Baby Boom or Silent generations – many of whom came of age
during the U.S. military engagements in Korea and Vietnam – has accompanied
a long-term decrease in the share of legislators who are veterans. And the arrival of younger
generations of lawmakers has brought additional changes, including growing racial and ethnic diversity in
Congress. (PEW)
16 January, 2025
Source: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2025/01/16/age-and-generation-in-the-119th-congress-somewhat-younger-with-fewer-boomers-and-more-gen-xers/
882-884-43-18/Polls: 119th Congress’ LGBTQ Members Include First Trans
Representative
Thirteen members of the 119th Congress are openly lesbian,
gay, bisexual, transgender or queer (LGBTQ), according to a Pew Research
Center analysis of official biographies, news reports and candidate
databases. This total includes Congress’ first openly trans member. The number of LGBTQ members hasn’t changed since the last Congress, but it has grown markedly
since the start of the 111th Congress in 2009. At that time, two members were
openly gay men and one was a lesbian, according to data from the LGBTQ+
Victory Fund, a political action committee that works to elect LGBTQ+ candidates.
The only bisexual member of the last Congress, Sen. Kyrsten
Sinema of Arizona, did not seek reelection in 2024. That means Tammy Baldwin of
Wisconsin – elected in 2012 as the first openly gay senator – is again the Senate’s
only LGBTQ lawmaker. All 13 openly LGBTQ members of the new Congress are Democrats.
Ten are returning members and three are new. In the House, Sarah McBride of Delaware is the first openly transgender member of Congress. Two other incoming House
members also made history:
Across both chambers, six members are gay men. Seven are women
who are gay, lesbian, transgender or queer. Members of Congress who are openly LGBTQ account for 2.4% of
the 533 voting lawmakers sworn in on Jan. 3, 2025. But LGBTQ+ Americans made
up 7.6% of the adult population overall in 2023, according to Gallup surveys. November’s election also brought several firsts at the state
level. LGBTQ candidates won legislative seats in 39 states, according
to Victory Fund data and news reports. In
Texas, Molly Cook, who is bisexual, became the
first openly LGBTQ person elected to a full term in the state Senate. Hawaii, Iowa and Missouri each elected their first openly
transgender state legislators – Kim Coco Iwamoto, Aime Wichtendahl and Wick Thomas, respectively. RaShaun Kemp of Georgia and Amaad Rivera-Wagner of Wisconsin became the first openly gay Black men
elected to their states’ legislatures. (PEW)
30 January, 2025
Source: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2025/01/30/119th-congress-lgbtq-members-include-first-trans-representative/
882-884-43-19/Polls: Global Attitudes To Housing And House Prices
Key findings of the first Ipsos Housing Monitor include: ·
Renters less happy with their
housing situation. 47% of renters say they are happy with their current
housing situation compared to 69% of homeowners. While in all markets, owners
are happier than renters, in countries with stronger rights for tenants, the
gap in satisfaction is smaller. ·
People feel it is harder to
buy a home now than previously. 70% of under 35s say it is
harder for people their age to buy or rent a home to settle down in than it
was for their parents' generation. However, older age groups are almost as
likely to say the same thing (64% for 50–74-year-olds). ·
However, people do not feel
rising house prices are a good thing. Only 19% say they think
rising house prices are a good thing for them personally, while 57% disagree
with this statement. Even among those who own their property outright this
only rises to 23%. ·
People think their country’s
housing is on wrong track. Across 30 countries 52%
think their country’s housing is on the wrong track, while 28% are happy with
how things are going. There are big differences by country and region, with
people in Asia generally more positive, while Europeans are more likely to
say housing is on the wrong track. ·
Apartment vs house? Countries
matter. Culture plays a strong role in
shaping people’s idea of the ideal home. In Asia and LATAM, people are more
likely to want a detached house in the city, while in many western countries,
people want a rural house. However, in Italy, Spain, South Korea and Singapore
people prefer apartment living. ·
Good value and good location
make a good property. On average people feel value
for money (47%) and a good location (45%) are the most important
characteristics a property can have. A low local crime rate (33%), access to
public transport (29%) and good local infrastructure (25%) are also seen as
important.
Attitudes
to the housing market Across 30 countries, a majority
(61%) are happy with their current housing situation. However, there are
signs that, on a broader level, all is not well. A majority in all but three countries
surveyed agree that not enough attention is given to the issue of housing in
their country. One in two people (52%) say
their country is on the wrong track when it comes to housing; fewer than
three in ten (28%) say things are moving in the right direction. This
pessimism reaches a peak in the Netherlands (77% say things are moving in the
wrong direction), with Spain (76%), and South Korea (70%) not far
behind. We see this pessimistic outlook
combined with a lack of faith in what the government is doing to make things
better, particularly in Europe. The Netherlands and Hungary lead a cohort of
European countries who feel their government could be doing more to fix their
housing problems, with 69% and 63% respectively expressing this
sentiment. Despite all this, there are
pockets of positivity. On the whole, Asian countries see things moving in the
right direction. A majority think housing is on the right track in Singapore
(66%), Thailand (64%), Malaysia (56%), and India (55%). Renting
vs homeownership How important is it to own your own home? Almost three-quarters of people
(73%) say it’s an aspiration for most people in their country; 60% say it’s
hard to feel secure in life without this. We see some evidence that
ownership does in fact provide some security, with renters seemingly facing a
tougher housing situation than homeowners. Homeowners are also much less
concerned about housing costs, both now and in the near future. Just over a
third of those on a mortgage (37%) say they’re worried about their current
ability to pay mortgage repayments compared with one in two renters (49%). Although seven in ten renters
(71%) say they’d like to be able to own their own home, over half (56%) – and
a majority in 21 of 29 countries surveyed - don’t believe they’ll ever be
able to afford one. This reaches a peak in Germany (70%), Australia (69%) and
Japan (68%). A majority (59% on average) in
all but four countries (Poland, 49%; Italy, 47%; France, 43%; and Japan, 15%)
agree that it’s too easy for landlords to take advantage of tenants. This
view is more commonly held among renters than homeowners (66% agree vs 57%). Perceptions:
past, present and future Majorities in all but one
country surveyed agree that young people today will experience difficulties
getting the housing they need. Seven in ten (71%) across 30
countries agree that even if today's young people work hard and get good
jobs, they will have a hard time getting the right kind of housing. But is housing for young people
worse than it was 20 or so years ago? Young people think so. Seven in ten
under 35s (70%) say it’s harder for people their age to buy or rent a home to
settle down in that it was for their parents' generation. However, older people are
almost as likely to say the same about their own parents’ generation (68% of
35–49- year-olds and 64% of 50-74-year-olds agree). Majorities in 28 of 30
countries surveyed think house prices have risen over the last 12 months. By
and large, they are correct; 26 countries have seen average house prices in
their country rise. The most ‘out of touch’ are Germany (69% think house
prices have risen but in fact they are down 2.6%) and France (58% think house
prices have risen but they have fallen 5%). Looking to the future, the
public are not optimistic that things will improve any time soon. Sixty-seven
per cent say they expect house prices to be higher 12 months from now; 71%
say the same about the cost of renting. For most, rising prices have
few silver linings. Six in ten disagree that rising property prices are good
thing for them personally (57%), or good for their country (60%). Four in ten (37%, rising to 57%
in Türkiye) are already concerned about their ability to pay the rent/their
mortgage. They see little sign that things will abate in the near future; a
similar proportion (39%, rising to 58% in Türkiye) have the same concerns for
12 months’ time. (Ipsos Canada) 29 January, 2025 Source: https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/global-housing-monitor-2025
882-884-43-20/Polls: Majority Of Americans Support Deporting Immigrants Who Are In
The US Illegally
A new
Axios/Ipsos poll finds that a majority of Americans support deporting
immigrants who are in the country illegally as a general concept. However,
that support drops significantly when caveats are added that describe
specific mechanisms for carrying out such deportations, such as separating
families or sending people to countries other than their home countries,
using active-duty military personnel, or using money allocated to the U.S.
military to pay for deportation. There are partisan divides, with Republicans
significantly more likely to support deportations under any conditions than
Democrats or independents. Detailed results Two-thirds of Americans support
deporting immigrants who are in the country illegally. However, there is very
little support for deporting legal immigrants. ·
Sixty-six percent support
deporting immigrants who are in the country illegally. Republicans (93%) are
more likely to show support than Democrats (43%) and independents (67%). ·
Fewer Americans (11%) support
deporting immigrants who are in the country legally. While there is support
for deportations at a general level, it diminishes considerably as specific
policies or outcomes to achieve deportations are included. ·
Only 38 percent of Americans
support using active-duty military personnel to find and detain undocumented
immigrants. Similarly, only 28 percent support using money allocated to the
U.S. military to pay for deportation. ·
A third of Americans support
the swift deportation of detained immigrants, even if it involves separating
families or sending people to countries other than their home country (34%),
and the deportation of immigrants who arrived in the U.S. illegally as children
(34%). Similar to the blanket
deportation of immigrants who are in the country illegally, Republicans are
significantly more likely to support these measures than Democrats and
independents. About
the study This Axios/Ipsos poll was
conducted by Ipsos from January 10 to January 12, 2025, using the probability-based
KnowledgePanel®. This poll is based on a nationally representative
probability sample of 1,025 adults ages 18 and older. The sample includes 301
Republicans, 309 Democrats, and 294 independents. The survey was conducted using
KnowledgePanel, the largest and most well-established probability-based
online panel that is representative of the U.S. adult population. Our
recruitment process employs a scientifically developed address-based sampling
methodology using the latest USPS Delivery Sequence File—a database with
complete coverage of all delivery points in the U.S. Households invited to
join the panel are randomly selected from all available households in the
U.S. Individuals in the sampled households are invited to join the panel.
Those selected who do not already have internet access are provided with a
tablet and internet connection at no cost to the panel member. Those who join
the panel and are selected to participate in a survey are provided with a
unique password-protected login that is used to complete online surveys. As a
result of our recruitment and sampling methodologies, KnowledgePanel samples
cover all households regardless of their phone or internet status, and
findings can be reported with a margin of sampling error and projected to the
general population. The study was conducted in
English. Data from the total sample were weighted to adjust for gender by
age, race/ethnicity, education, Census region, metropolitan status, and
household income. Party ID benchmarks are from the 2024 NPORS annual survey.
Demographic benchmarks come from the March 2023 Supplement of the Current
Population Survey (CPS). ·
Gender (male, female) by age
(18–29, 30–44, 45-59 and 60+) ·
Hispanic Race/Ethnicity
(Non-Hispanic White, Non-Hispanic Black, Other, Non-Hispanic, Hispanic, 2+
Races, Non-Hispanic) ·
Education (Less than high
school, high school, some college, bachelor's degree or higher) ·
Census Region (Northeast,
Midwest, South, West) ·
Metropolitan status (Metro,
non-Metro) ·
Household Income (under
$25,000, $25,000-$49,999, $50,000-$74,999, $75,000-$99,999,
$100,000-$149,999, $150,000+) ·
Party ID (Democrat,
Democrat-Lean, Republican, Republican-Lean, Independent/Other) The margin of sampling error is
plus or minus 3.2 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level for
results based on the entire sample of adults. The margin of sampling error
takes into account the design effect, which was 1.08. For Republicans, the
margin of sampling error is plus or minus 5.8 percentage points, and the
design effect is 1.06. For Democrats, the margin of sampling error is plus or
minus 5.8 percentage points, and the design effect is 1.09. For Independents,
the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 5.9 percentage points, and the
design effect is 1.08. The margin of sampling error is
larger and varies for results based on subsamples. In our reporting of the
findings, percentage points are rounded to the nearest whole number. As a
result, percentages in a given column of the table may total slightly higher
or lower than 100%. In questions that allow multiple responses, columns may
total substantially higher than 100%, depending on the number of different
answers offered by each respondent. (Ipsos Brazil) 24 January, 2025 Source:
https://www.ipsos.com/pt-br/maioria-dos-americanos-apoia-a-deportacao-de-imigrantes
AUSTRALIA
882-884-43-21/Polls: Risk Of Mortgage Stress Up Again In
December After Reserve Bank Again Decided Not To Cut Interest Rates
New research from Roy Morgan
shows 27.9% of mortgage holders are now ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’. The
research was conducted in the three months to December 2024 and represents a
second straight monthly increase since October but is still 2.4% lower than
the June figures prior to the Stage 3 tax cuts that increased household
income for Australians. The share of mortgage holders ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in
December (27.9% of mortgage holders) is the highest since September 2024.
After the introduction of the Stage 3 tax cuts in July 2024 the share of
mortgage holders ‘At Risk’ fell for four straight months until October but
has now increased for two straight months after the Reserve Bank left
interest rates unchanged in both November and December. The record high of 35.6% of mortgage holders in mortgage stress
was reached in mid-2008. 788,000 more ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress
more than two years after interest rate increases began
The number of Australians ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress has
increased by 788,000 since May 2022 when the RBA began a cycle of interest
rate increases. Official interest rates are now at 4.35%, the highest
interest rates have been since December 2011, over a decade ago. The number of Australians considered ‘Extremely At Risk’, is now
numbered at 973,000 (17.4% of mortgage holders) which is significantly above
the long-term average over the last 10 years of 14.6%. Mortgage Stress – % of Owner-Occupied
Mortgage-Holders
Mortgages ‘At Risk’ will drop in February and
March if the RBA drops interest rates in February
Due to the decline in inflation in recent months Roy Morgan has
modelled the impact of a potential RBA interest rate decrease in February
2025 of +0.25% to 4.1%. In December, 27.9% of mortgage holders, 1,595,000, were
considered ‘At Risk’ and this figure is projected to decrease by 26,000 in
February 2025 to 1,569,000 (27.4% of mortgage holders, down 0.5% points) if
the Reserve Bank drops interest rates by +0.25% to 4.10% at its February
meeting. Looking forward, the share of mortgage holders considered ‘At
Risk’ will drop further in March, down an additional 27,000 to 1,542,000 in
March 2025, equivalent to 26.9% of mortgage holders. This represents a drop
of 1% point (down 53,000) from the current figures for December 2024. Mortgage Risk projections based on an
interest rate decrease of +0.25% to 4.10% in February
How are mortgage holders considered ‘At Risk’
or ‘Extremely At Risk’ determined?
Roy Morgan considers the risk of ‘mortgage stress’ among
Mortgage holders in two ways: Mortgage holders are considered ‘At Risk’. if their
mortgage repayments are greater than a certain percentage of household income
– depending on income and spending. Mortgage holders are considered ‘Extremely at Risk’if even the
‘interest only’ is over a certain proportion of household income. Unemployment is the key factor which has the
largest impact on income and mortgage stress
It is worth understanding that Roy Morgan uses a conservative
forecasting model, essentially assuming all other factors apart from interest
rates remain the same. The latest Roy Morgan unemployment estimates show over
one-in-five Australian workers are either unemployed or under-employed –
3,218,000 (20.3% of the workforce) – the highest level of overall
unemployment or under-employment for over four years since August 2020; (In December Australian
unemployment increased to 9.7% as overall employment dropped by 150,000). Although all eyes will be on the Reserve Bank’s interest rate
decision in February, which has large implications for next year’s Federal
Election, the fact remains the greatest impact on an individual, or
household’s, ability to pay their mortgage is not interest rates, it’s if
they lose their job or main source of income. Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says mortgage
stress increased for a second straight month in December with 27.9% of
Australians with a mortgage now considered ‘At Risk’:
“The
latest Roy Morgan data shows 1,595,000 Australians were ‘At Risk’ of mortgage
stress in December 2024. The share of mortgage holders ‘At Risk’ (27.9%, up
1.1% points from November 2024) has increased for a second straight month. “After
decreasing for four straight months following the introduction of the Stage 3
tax cuts, mortgage stress has increased during both November and December
after the Reserve Bank (RBA) decided to leave interest rates unchanged during
each of these months. “The figures
for December 2024 represent an increase of 788,000 considered ‘At Risk’ since
the RBA began raising interest rates in May 2022. The estimates take into
account 13 interest rate increases which raised official rates by a total of
4.25% points to 4.35%. “The
latest ABS quarterly inflation estimates
for December 2024 showed annual inflation at 2.4% – down 0.4% points from
September 2024. This is the second straight quarter the official inflation
estimates have been within the RBA’s preferred target range of 2-3%. On the
monthly measure inflation has averaged an even lower 2.3% from August –
December 2024. “The rapid
decline in inflation over the last year has led to hope that the RBA will
reduce interest rates in the months ahead. However, the RBA has stated that
they are keeping an eye on so-called ‘core inflation’, also known as the
‘trimmed mean’. The latest ‘trimmed mean’ estimate for inflation for the year
to December 2024 was still just above the desired target range at 3.2%. “Nevertheless,
the decline in inflation pressures is evident and the RBA’s next move in
interest rates is likely to be down. For these reasons we have modelled the
impact on mortgage stress of a cut to interest rates of +0.25% to 4.1%. If
the RBA cuts interest rates by +0.25% in mid-February the number of mortgage
holders considered ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress would decline to 1,542,000
(26.9% of mortgage holders) by March 2024, a fall of 53,000 on current
figures. “Finally, it
is important to appreciate that interest rates are only one of the variables
that determines whether a mortgage holder is considered ‘At Risk’ – the
largest impact on whether a borrower falls into the ‘At Risk’ category is
related to household income – which is directly related to employment. “The
employment market has been strong over the last two years (the latest Roy Morgan estimates
show 708,000 new jobs created compared to two years ago) and this has provided support to household incomes
which have helped to moderate levels of mortgage stress over the last year.” (Roy Morgan)
29 January, 2025 Source: https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9798-mortgage-stress-risk-december-2024 882-884-43-22/Polls: Top 10 Issues Shaping The 2025 Federal
Election: Cost Of Living And Crime On The Rise, Climate Change Fades
Roy Morgan’s in-depth survey data covering the
last few years highlights the key issues gaining importance for Australian
electors as we approach this year’s Federal Election. A representative cross-section of 14,522 electors in the June
Quarter 2022, at the time of the last Australian Federal Election, and 14,713
electors in the September Quarter 2024 were asked “Which three issues are the most important to you?” Cost-of-living increasingly dominates voter concerns with
several related issues rising significantly since mid-2022. The most
important issue for electors is clearly ‘Keeping
day-to-day living costs down’ up 7% points to 57%. ‘Keeping interest rates down’ up 8%
points to 19%, and ‘Managing
immigration and population growth’ surging 8% points to 14%.
The sharp rise in immigration-related concerns is during a period in which
Australia has had record high immigration and housing affordability issues
have been at the forefront for many Australians. At the same time, public anxiety about safety has escalated
significantly with ‘Reducing crime
and maintaining law and order’ jumping 10% points to 23% -
the largest increase for any issue. In contrast, there are two issues that have fallen rapidly in
importance: ‘Global warming and
climate change’ is down 9% points to 23% and ‘Open and honest government’ is
down 6% points to 19%. ‘Improving health services and hospitals’ remains a top priority, but has dipped slightly, down 2%
points to 31%; ‘Managing the economy’ has
increased marginally in importance, up 2% points to 22%; ‘Reducing the taxes you and your family pay’ holds
steady at 15% and ‘Improving education’ has seen a modest increase, up 1%
point to 14%. Top 10 voter Issues of Most Importance June
Quarter 2022, to September Quarter 2024 (change since the 2022 Federal
Election)
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia), June
2022 Quarter n= 14,522 & September 2024 Quarter n= 14,713. Base: Australians Electors 18+ Concerns about crime and maintaining law and
order have increased by more than any other issue since the last Federal
Election – and for supporters of all major parties Since the last Federal Election in mid-2022, concerns about ‘reducing crime and maintaining law and
order’ have risen sharply for supporters of all major parties
and in all States and Territories. Detailed analysis shows a notable and consistent shift among
voters from around the country regarding crime– which has already had an
impact in last year’s Queensland Election. Nearly a third of Liberal-National Coalition supporters, 32%,
now cite ‘reducing crime and maintaining
law and order’ as one of their top priorities—an increase of
15% points since mid-2022. There was also a significant increase for ALP supporters with
concern nearly doubling from 11% to 20%, a 9% points jump. Supporters of the
Greens recorded a more modest increase, with 13% of their voters now
prioritising ‘reducing crime and law
and order’, up 5% points from mid-2022. Queensland and Victoria show significant
increases in concern relating to ‘reducing crime and maintaining law and
order’ Queensland recorded the largest increase of concern about the
issue of ‘reducing crime and
maintaining law and order’ doubling in importance for the
electorate, up from 16% to 32%. In Victoria, concern about crime has grown significantly, with a
12% points increase from 14% to 26%. This means over one-in-four Victorian
electors now see crime as one of their most important issues. In Western Melbourne, concern about crime has surged from 13% to
21% since mid-2022, with more than one in five voters highlighting it as one
of their most important issues. This is especially important with a February
by-election in the State seat of Werribee. Concern about the issue in New South Wales rose 9% points from
12% to 21%. There are more marginal electorates in New South Wales than
anywhere else in Australia, with 15 federal electorates held by a margin of
6% or less. South Australia follows closely with a 7% points jump, moving
from 14% to 21%. Western Australia recorded a 7% point increase from 15% to
22%, while Tasmania saw a rise of 9% points, climbing from 15% to 24%.
Similarly, the Northern Territory experienced a sharp rise, with nearly one
in three voters now prioritising crime, increasing 13% points from 20% to
33%. In contrast, the ACT registered the smallest increase, with
concern about crime rising by only 3% points from 9% to 12%. The contrast between concerns about crime among Queenslanders
(32%) and those in the Northern Territory (33%) compared to those voters
living in the ACT (12%) is stark. Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says
understanding how electors feel about these issues is critical as we approach
this year’s Federal Election: “Australians
are shifting their focus on what are the ‘Issues of most importance’ ahead of
this year’s Federal Election, with significant increases regarding ‘Keeping
day-to-day living costs down’ (up 7% points to 57% since mid-2022 and by far
the most important issue for Australians) and ‘Reducing crime and maintaining
law and order’ (up 10% points to 23%). “The rising focus on cost-of-living
pressures—spanning day-to-day expenses, interest rates, and housing
affordability—reflects a growing urgency among voters to address financial
strain, making it the defining issue of this election cycle. “Since the Federal Election in mid-2022,
concern about ‘reducing crime and maintaining law and order’ has surged
around Australia and for supporters of all major parties. The surge has been
most pronounced in Queensland, where concern about the issue has doubled from
16% to 32%, in Victoria, with a rise from 14% to 26% and in the Northern
Territory, up 13% to 33%. “The rising concern among supporters of
different parties underscores the growing public demand for stronger action
on ‘reducing crime and maintaining law and order’ across Australia and played
a large role in the LNP’s victory in last year’s Queensland Election. “Queenslanders ejected the former ALP
Government from office in October last year and the LNP under David
Crisafulli gained a 7% point swing to win a clear majority of seats. “In Victoria, new State Liberal Leader Brad
Battin faces his first electoral test in early February in the Labor
Government-held seat of Werribee. Battin is a former policeman, like Federal
Coalition Leader Peter Dutton, and will be hoping his tough reputation will
add momentum to the Liberal Party’s campaign to win the seat. “Meanwhile, concern about the issues of
climate change and transparency has notably declined, with ‘Global warming
and climate change’ dropping by 9% points to 23% and ‘Open and honest
government’ falling by 6% points to 19%, signalling a clear shift in voter
priorities. These two issues were important factors central to the success of
the ‘Teal’ Independents in the last Federal Election. “The sharp rise in concern over ‘Managing
immigration and population growth’—from 6% to 14%—reflects a growing
undercurrent of public interest in the issue which is closely associated with
housing affordability for many Australians. While still a relatively small
issue (tenth overall), its significance as a potential swing factor in such a
tightly contested election cannot be underestimated. “If the Albanese government fails to realign
with these changing voter concerns, they may not be re-elected. With crime
now a top priority for nearly one in three Queenslanders and a growing
concern in marginal electorates across New South Wales and Victoria, the
Coalition’s emphasis on maintaining law and order could resonate powerfully
at the ballot box.” (Roy Morgan)
23 January, 2025
Source: https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9797-most-important-issues-facing-australia-january-2025 MULTICOUNTRY STUDIES
882-884-43-23/Polls: From Weight Loss To Longevity, South
Africa's Health Consciousness Takes Centre Stage This Year
The survey, which covered 50 countries including several
African nations, shows that online South Africans are more likely to
prioritise their physical and mental well-being compared to global averages. Key findings include: ·
Holistic Health Approach: An overwhelming 92% of South Africans agree they need to
do more to look after themselves physically, in line with the African average
and comparing favourably to the global average of 84%. This trend extends to
mental health, with 92% of South Africans recognising the need to improve
their mental well-being, versus 81% globally. ·
Nutrition as a Cornerstone: 92% of South Africans believe that eating right is the
most important factor in maintaining good health, surpassing both the African
average of 90% and the global average of 84%. ·
Empowered Health Management: 83% of South Africans actively seek health information
independently, rather than relying solely on their doctors’ advice. This is
significantly higher than the global average of 69%, and slightly above the
African average of 82%. ·
Desire for Health Autonomy: 91% of South Africans express a desire for more control
over decisions about their health, compared to 80% globally and 89% across
Africa. ·
Optimistic Longevity: 48% of South Africans expect to live to 100 years old, lower
than the African average of 50%, but still markedly higher than the global
average of 38%.
The study also reveals interesting nuances within the African
continent, with South Africa often showing distinct nuances. While the global
average for those wanting to lose weight is 63%, this varies significantly
between countries. In Zambia, only 41% express a desire to lose weight, while
in Egypt, this figure rises to 65%. South Africa falls in the middle at 53%.
"These variations
highlight the importance of tailored health strategies across different
African markets, with South Africa presenting its own unique profile,"
Robyn Williams, Service Line Manager at Ipsos in South Africa notes. "As
people set their New Year's resolutions, it's clear that weight management
goals will differ significantly across the continent. Health and wellness
businesses should consider these regional differences when planning their New
Year campaigns for the South African market. It is not a case of ‘one size
fits all.’" The high level of health consciousness among Africans presents
both opportunities and challenges for businesses in the health and wellness
sector. On one hand, there's a clear demand for health-related products and
services, which could see a surge as people commit to their New Year's
resolutions. On the other, citizens are increasingly informed and discerning,
seeking greater control over their health decisions. "For businesses in the health and wellness space, these
findings underscore the need for transparency, education, choice and
empowerment in their offerings," Williams explains. "Africans are
not just passive recipients of health advice – they're active participants in
their health journeys. As they set their goals for 2025, they'll be looking
for products and services that support their desire for autonomy and informed
decision-making." The optimism about longevity among African respondents is
particularly striking. While 50% of Africans expect reach their 100th
birthday, this belief varies widely across the continent, from only 24% in
Morocco to a remarkable 73% in Kenya.
"This optimism about longevity could have far-reaching
implications for how people approach their New Year's resolutions and
long-term health goals," Williams observes. "While South Africans
are slightly less optimistic about living to 100 than the African average,
they still show a strong future-oriented mindset. It suggests a population
that's not just focused on immediate health concerns but is thinking
longer-term about their well-being. This could translate into sustained
commitment to health resolutions throughout the year and beyond." As Africa continues to evolve as a key market for health and
wellness products and services, understanding these nuanced attitudes towards
health could be crucial for businesses looking to succeed in different
markets on the continent. "These findings paint a picture of South Africans as
health-conscious, proactive, and optimistic about their future
well-being," Williams concludes. "For businesses in the health and
wellness sector, this presents a unique opportunity to engage with a
population that is eager for information, products, and services that can
support their health journeys. As we enter 2025, companies that can align
their offerings with these long-term health aspirations are likely to find a
receptive audience in South Africa and beyond." "As people across South Africa and the world set their
intentions for a healthier 2025, these insights can guide both individual
goal setting and business strategies," Williams adds. "The
proactive and informed approach to health that we're seeing from South
Africans could serve as a model for sustainable health practices both within
Africa and globally." (Ipsos
South Africa) 23
January, 2025 882-884-43-24/Polls: What Worries The World –
January 2025
Our monthly What Worries the World survey explores what the public thinks are the most
important social and political issues, drawing on more than ten years of data
to place the latest scores in context. Inflation remains the number one global concern, although
only by a small margin. Key findings: ·
Inflation remains the leading
concern, with 32% of respondents expressing worry—a figure unchanged since
December but four percentage points lower than the same point last year.
Notably, inflation is now only one point ahead of crime and violence as a
primary concern. ·
In South Korea, recent
political turmoil has impacted public sentiment. The proportion of citizens
who believe their country is "heading in the right direction" has
fallen by three points since December, to an eight-year low of 14%.
Meanwhile, concerns about corruption have surged, with 50% of respondents now
identifying it as a major issue. ·
The proportion of Americans
saying inflation is one of the main issues in their country has fallen seven
points over the month to 39%. This is the lowest it has been since January
2022. That said, it remains the number one concern in the US. ·
In Sweden, concerns about crime
& violence have been top of the country’s list for nearly eight and half
years and 65% express worry this month. ·
The proportion mentioning
health care in Canada is up six points since December to 44% (joint first
with inflation) and has increased eight points in the US to 31%. This is the
highest score for the US since May 2020, when it was 32%. ·
Inflation The number saying they are worried about inflation in Türkiye
has increased seven points this month, to nearly three-fifths (58%). Despite
this being a high level, it is not unusual for the nation, with Türkiye
having rising costs as their number one issue since November 2021. On the contrary, there has been a seven point decline in
mentions in the US, with two-fifths (39%) now concerned. This is the joint
lowest score since January 2022 (when it was 27%). February 2024 also
recorded 39%. Crime & violence The proportion of Swedes expressing concern about crime has
jumped eight points this month to two in three (65%). It’s still the nation’s
primary worry and has been for nearly eight and half years (101 months).
Additionally, compared to January 2024, the level of worry is 12 points
higher. However, it should be noted that this level isn’t unusual for Sweden,
with September 2024 recording the same score. Colombia has experienced the opposite, with concern dropping
eight points to 36%, which is a similar level to what we usually see for the
nation. Financial/political corruption After the recent political turmoil last month
in South Korea, the nation has experienced a significant rise in those
expressing concern. This January, worry increased seven points and half (50%)
now putt it as one of the major issues. This is 16 points higher than last
January and the highest level for five years, when we recorded 52% in
December 2019. Likewise, with continued disapproval of their
government, the proportion of Peruvians mentioning corruption has risen
seven points to over half (54%). This is the highest it has been since May
2023, when it was also 54%. Health care Concern has risen across North America this month. In Canada,
the proportion of respondents identifying it as a key issue has increased by
six points to 44%, placing it in a tie with inflation as the country’s top
concern. However, this level of concern remains relatively consistent over
time, being five points lower than during the same period last year. Comparatively, in the US, the proportion mentioning health
have jumped up eight points to 31%. Not only is this nine points higher than
a year ago, but it’s also the highest level since May 2020, when it was 32%.
Taxes Israel has experienced the largest rise in concern this month
after increasing 11 points to a third (34%) citing it as an issue. This is
also 11 points higher than this time last year and the highest it has been
for the nation since they were added to the survey in February 2015. Additionally, it means that taxes are now the second biggest
worry for Israelis, behind terrorism (48%) but ahead of military conflict
between nations (31%).
Current economic situation
On average across 29 countries, 37% of people describe the
economic situation in their country as “good”. The biggest improvement, compared with this time last year, is
Argentina, + 31pp to 38%. This is the largest 12-month increase the country
has ever seen, and also the highest its good economy score has been since
November 2017 (38%). Of the 29 countries in our survey, positive economic sentiment
has fallen most since last year in France, -down points to 10%. This is the
largest fall over a 12 month period we’ve ever seen in France. Meanwhile, Germany records a new all-time low score for the
fourth consecutive month, now down 26%. (Ipsos Global) 24 January, 2025 Source: https://www.ipsos.com/en/what-worries-world 882-884-43-25/Polls: The Ipsos Foundation:
Empowering Children Worldwide Through Education
At Ipsos, we are passionate about shaping a better future for
children worldwide. Education is a powerful tool that unlocks a world of
opportunities, empowering young minds to reach their full potential. With
this belief at the core of our values, we established the Ipsos Foundation in
2014. Together with international and local charities, the Ipsos
Foundation supports projects that strive to improve access to education for
disadvantaged children and young people, including refugees. We firmly
believe that by fostering education, we can create a brighter future for
generations to come. Through the collective efforts of our dedicated employees
across 90 countries, the Ipsos Foundation has sponsored over 127 impactful
projects in 43 countries. To date, we have awarded grants totalling more than
€3M, directly benefiting thousands of children and teenagers.
Making a global Impact: changing lives, one
project at a time We have built schools in Nepal, Ghana, and Zambia, providing
safe and nurturing learning environments for children who would otherwise be
left behind. Realizing the importance of resources, we have supplied books to
communities in the USA, Hong Kong, South Africa, and Haiti, instilling the
joy of reading and knowledge in young minds. Recognizing the unique challenges faced by children with
severe illnesses, the Ipsos Foundation has supported their education in
Russia, the Philippines, and Kazakhstan. By providing educational
opportunities for these brave individuals, we strive to bring hope and
empowerment to their lives. These projects are just a glimpse of the work undertaken by
the Ipsos Foundation. By addressing diverse educational needs around the
world, we are making a tangible positive impact on the lives of children and
young people, fostering a brighter and more inclusive future. Empowered by our employees: collaborative
partnerships The Ipsos Foundation operates thanks to the unwavering
dedication of our Ipsos employees. Each project is sponsored by an Ipsos
staff member who shares our vision for a better world. They submit project
applications to the Foundation's board of directors and trustees, ensuring
that every initiative aligns with our core mission. Furthermore, our employees often go above and beyond by
volunteering their time and expertise, actively participating in the projects
we support. Their dedication serves as a testament to our shared commitment
to making education accessible to all. (Ipsos Global) 23 January, 2025 Source: https://www.ipsos.com/en/ipsos-foundation-empowering-children-worldwide-through-education |
