Gilani’s Gallopedia© Gallopedia From Gilani Research Foundation January 2023, Issue # 780* Compiled on a weekly basis since January 2007
Gilani’s Gallopedia is a weekly Digest of Opinions in a globalized world
This issue scores 22 out of 100 on Gilani-Gallopedia's Globality Index, showing coverage of world population, and 33 out of 100 on the world income (prosperity) Index. Click for Details
Contact Details: Natasha Amir Research Executive, Gallup Pakistan Email: natasha@galluppakistan.com This WEEKLY REPORT consists of 21 national & multi-country surveys 11 polling organizations have been represented. Asia And MENA: Japan (Environment ) – 01 national polls Africa: Nigeria (Elections ), Ethiopia (National Image) – 02 national polls Euro Americas: UK( Entertainment, Performance Ratings , Inflation, National Trust, Political Parties), Germany (IT & Telecom), Italy (Science & Technology), Ireland (Immigration), USA ( Governance, Russia/Ukraine War, Performance Ratings, National Image, Sports), Colombia ( Gender Issues), New Zealand (Consumer Confidence), Australia (Political Parties )– 16 national polls	Multi-Country Studies: Arabbarometer – 02 Countries (Palestine/Israel Conflict) Afrobarometer – 34 Countries (Governance) Topic of the Week: Africans Want Age Limits For Government Heads, A Survey Among 34 African Nations Gilani-Gallopedia Globality Index
ASIA AND MENA Regions
780-01 Upgrades Eyed For Heatstroke Alerts, Public ‘Cooling Facilities’ (Click for Details) (Japan) The central government is planning legal revisions that will upgrade the special alert system for heatstroke and promote the use of public “cooling facilities” during extremely hot weather. The Japan Meteorological Agency said the number of extremely hot days—when temperatures hit 35 degrees or higher--has increased notably since the 1990s. For three consecutive years from 2018, the number of people who died from heatstroke in Japan exceeded 1,000. According to an Environment Ministry survey conducted last year, 125, or 21 percent, of the 592 responding municipalities said they have such cooling facilities. (Asahi Shimbun) February 2, 2023 4.14 Society » Environment (Top)
AFRICA Regions
780-02 Nigerians Want Competitive Elections But Don’t Trust The Electoral Commission. (Click for Details) (Nigeria) A majority of Nigerians believe that elections are the best method to choose their leaders, according to the latest Afrobarometer survey. But as they approach their presidential election in February, fewer than one-fourth of citizens say they trust the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). Most Nigerians (71%) support elections as the best way to choose their leaders. A similarly clear majority (69%) say Nigeria needs many political parties to ensure that voters have a real choice, a 13-percentage-point rebound from 2020. (NOI Polls) February 3, 2023 1.1 Domestic Politics » Elections (Top)
780-03 Ethiopians Grim After Two Years Of War (Click for Details) (Ethiopia) The war between Ethiopian and Tigrayan forces may have ended, but the struggle is far from over for most Ethiopians. Battered by two years of war, COVID-19 and rising food costs, Ethiopians surveyed at the tail end of the war in 2022 found themselves in the grimmest situation in more than a decade. When asked to rate their lives today on a scale of 0 to 10, Ethiopians' average rating dropped from 4.5 in 2020 to just 3.6 today, the lowest rating since Gallup began tracking this metric in Ethiopia in 2012. This is well below the 2021 average worldwide (5.3) as well as in sub-Saharan Africa (4.5). (Gallup) FEBRUARY 2, 2023 1.5 Domestic Politics » National Image (Top)
EURO-AMERICA Regions
EUROPE
780-04 British Streaming Market Shows Signs Of Recovery After A Turbulent Year (Click for Details) (UK) Between September to December 2022, the number of VoD-enabled households that subscribed to at least one video streaming service in Great Britain rose to 16.24 million, up +55k, quarter on quarter, representing 56% of households. 5% of British households took out a new streaming subscription during the final quarter of the year, down from 6% a year earlier. Apple TV+ saw its highest-ever subscriber satisfaction score for ‘quality of the shows’, beating out Netflix and Disney. (Kantar) 30 January 2023 4.16 Society » Entertainment (Top)
780-05 Three Years On And 45% Say Brexit Is Going Worse Than Expected (Click for Details) (UK) A new poll by Ipsos, conducted three years on since Britain formally left the European Union, finds 45% think that Brexit is going worse than they expected, up from 28% in June 2021. This includes two in three (66%) 2016 Remain voters saying it has gone worse (+19 since June 2021), and one in four (26%) 2016 Leave voters thinking the same (+16). Almost one in ten (9%) say it is working out better than expected (-6), while two in five (39%) think it is meeting their expectations (-7). (Ipsos MORI) 31 January 2023 1.2 Domestic Politics » Performance Ratings (Top)
780-06 Two In Three Britons Think The Worst Of The Cost-Of-Living Crisis Is Still To Come (Click for Details) (UK) As the IMF releases pessimistic forecasts for the UK economy, new polling from Ipsos reveals that 67% of Britons believe the worst of the cost of living crisis is still to come, while 27% think that its impact has already reached its peak. Younger people are particularly likely to think the worst is yet to come (80% of 18-34 year olds vs 56% of those aged 65+). When asked in March 2012 about the economic crisis, several years after 2008, 56% believed the worst was yet to come, and 41% that that crisis had reached its peak. (Ipsos MORI) 31 January 2023 3.4 Economy » Inflation (Top)
780-07 100 Days In, Rishi Sunak’s Ratings Are Lacklustre And He Has Failed To Salvage The Tory Brand (Click for Details) (UK) Rishi Sunak celebrates his hundredth day in office tomorrow. Tories have placed their hopes in Sunak to turn the party’s fortunes around after the disastrous Truss ministry and the scandal-ridden Johnson government. Since Sunak has taken over, the polls have stabilized and the Labour lead has narrowed, but nevertheless a significant gap of 20 points remains. Looking more specifically at 2019 Conservative voters, while it seems that Sunak has brought many of those who Truss lost back into the fold, there is no improvement on the party’s situation at the time Boris Johnson’s tenure came to an end. (YouGov UK) February 01, 2023 1.5 Domestic Politics » National Trust (Top)
780-08 Seven In Ten Britons Still Have A Negative View Of Politics (Click for Details) (UK) In February 2022, in the aftermath of the investigation into allegations of rule-breaking social gatherings at Downing Street, YouGov asked Britons about the state of politics in the UK. The results were overwhelmingly pessimistic, with 73% of Britons taking a negative view. By June of last year that had fallen slightly to 66%, but our newly released poll shows that as of December it had returned to near-Partygate levels, at 71%. (YouGov UK) February 02, 2023 1.4 Domestic Politics » Political Parties (Top)
780-09 Germans Rather Careless With Their Passwords (Click for Details) (Germany) Today, February 1st, is Change Your Password Day. On this occasion, YouGov, in cooperation with Statista, asked the Germans what their password security was like. It is noticeable that regularly updating or changing the passwords for their most important logins, such as e-mail or banking, is not really an issue. Respondents in Germany are most likely to say that they change their passwords to their most important accounts infrequently and not at the same time for different services (27 percent). 18 percent say they change them less than once a year. (YouGov Germany) February 01, 2023 3.12 Economy » IT & Telecom (Top)
780-10 The Travel Market In Italy Resumes Running Driven By The Online (Click for Details) (Italy) Looking at the behavior of Italian tourists, the survey carried out by BVA Doxa clearly shows the growing digitization of the journey also on the demand side. The online channel prevails for inspiration: 56% of travelers declare that they have used only online channels (search engines in over one out of two cases, followed by review sites, accommodation and transport aggregators and comparison sites and, lastly, of accommodation providers). (BVA Doxa) February 03, 2023 3.11 Economy » Science & Technology (Top)
780-11 Anti-Immigration Sentiment Bubbling Up To Become A Major Political Issue In Ireland (Click for Details) (Ireland) Nearly a third of Irish people (34%) disagree with the statement “Irish people welcome refugees on the whole, it’s just far-right activists opposing refugees settling in local communities”, suggesting that anti-refugee sentiment certainly goes farther than a small minority. Almost half of all Irish adults (45%) would not support the government using new powers to install modular homes for Ukrainian refugees, without planning permission in their area. (RedC Research) January 30, 2023 4.8 Society » Immigration (Top)
NORTH AMERICA
780-12 House Gets Younger, Senate Gets Older: A Look At The Age And Generation Of Lawmakers In The 118th Congress (Click for Details) (USA) The U.S. House of Representatives is getting younger – at least a bit – while the Senate’s median age continues to rise, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of the newly installed 118th Congress. The median age of voting House lawmakers is 57.9 years, down from 58.9 in the 117th Congress (2021-22), 58.0 in the 116th (2019-20) and 58.4 in the 115th (2017-18). The new Senate’s median age, on the other hand, is 65.3 years, up from 64.8 in the 117th Congress, 63.6 in the 116th and 62.4 in the 115th. (PEW) JANUARY 30, 2023 1.3 Domestic Politics » Governance (Top)
780-13 As Russian Invasion Nears One-Year Mark, Partisans Grow Further Apart On U.S. Support For Ukraine (Click for Details) (USA) The share of adults who say the U.S. is providing too much aid to Ukraine has increased 6 percentage points since last September and 19 points since shortly after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine last year, according to a Pew Research Center survey conducted Jan. 18-24 among 5,152 U.S. adults. This shift in opinion is mostly attributable to the growing share of Republicans who say the U.S. is providing too much support to Ukraine. Today, 40% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents hold this view, up from 32% in the fall and much higher than the 9% who held this view in March of last year. (PEW) JANUARY 31, 2023 2.11 Foreign Affairs & Security » Russia/Ukraine War (Top)
780-14 Americans' Dissatisfaction With Nation Eases, But Still High (Click for Details) (USA) Continuing a two-decade trend, most Americans remain dissatisfied with the way things are going in the U.S. -- 23% say they are satisfied, and 76% are dissatisfied. Forty-eight percent, the largest group, are “very dissatisfied,” but that figure has dropped from the record-high 66% measured in January 2021. Americans’ intense dissatisfaction eased last year, to 51%, and inched down further this year. (Gallup) JANUARY 31, 2023 1.2 Domestic Politics » Performance Ratings (Top)
780-15 Americans Still Glum About State Of The Union In Most Areas (Click for Details) (USA) The overall quality of life in the country (65%) and the opportunity for a person to get ahead by working hard (61%) are the only two societal dimensions of eight measured in this year’s Mood of the Nation poll that a majority of Americans view positively. Close to half of Americans today are satisfied with the influence of organized religion, while satisfaction drops to a third for the size and power of the federal government as well as the U.S. system of government and how it works. (Gallup) FEBRUARY 2, 2023 1.5 Domestic Politics » National Image (Top)
780-16 Sports Gambling Growth Driven By Small Group Of Highly Engaged Sports Fans (Click for Details) (USA) Just 8% of Americans have placed an official bet on a live sporting event online. Even fewer have bet on a live event in-person (4%) or on an esports event in either fashion (3%). Sports bettors are more likely to be male, younger, and wealthier. The most popular league to bet on among sports bettors is the NFL (59%). Other popular leagues and sports to bet on include the NBA (34%), NCAA football (30%), NCAA basketball (26%), MLB (26%), and horse racing (25%). (Ipsos USA) 1 February 2023 4.15 Society » Sports (Top)
780-17 How Safe Do Women Feel In The Bogata (Click for Details) (Colombia) The police put into operation a special command made up of 500 women to prevent and report cases of violence against women. A day 87 women in Bogotá are victims of violence, this crime is increasing.2022 closed with 20% more cases, which is why the capital created the purple command."In all the stations you will find a woman with this purple patrol button where you can file a complaint, we still have our hotlines 155 and 123." (CNC) February 01, 2023 4.5 Society » Gender Issues (Top)
AUSTRALIA
780-18 ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Up 9.6pts To 83.4 In January (Click for Details) (New Zealand) New Zealand Consumer Confidence jumped 9 points in January to 83.4, more than undoing its December fall. The lift was driven by the forward-looking questions. However, the level is still far below the neutral level of 100 last reached in September 2021. The net proportion of people who believe it is a good time to buy a major household item, a key retail indicator, lifted 5 points to -28% with 25% (up 1ppt) of New Zealanders saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ a major household item compared to 53% (down 4ppts) saying now is a ‘bad time to buy’. (Roy Morgan) February 03, 2023 3.2 Economy » Consumer Confidence (Top)
780-19 NSW Voting Intention: ALP Increased Their Lead Over The L-NP To End 2022: ALP 55% Cf. L-NP 45% (Click for Details) (Australia) The latest Roy Morgan Poll on State voting intention in New South Wales shows the ALP on 55% (up 3% points since November) well ahead of the Liberal-National Coalition on 45% (down 3% points) on a two-party preferred basis. The ALP and Liberal-National Coalition both lost support to minor parties and independents in December with the L-NP down 3.5% points to 33.5% and now level with the ALP on 33.5% (down 1.5% points). (Roy Morgan) January 31, 2023 1.4 Domestic Politics » Political Parties (Top)
MULTICOUNTRY STUDIES
780-20 Support For A Two-State Solution Among Palestinians And Israelis Declines (Click for Details) A Joint Poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in Ramallah and the International Program in Conflict Resolution and Mediation at Tel Aviv University. Slightly more Israeli Jews support one unequal state under Israeli rule than the two-state solution; but both publics still prefer two states to any other democratic framework for resolving the conflict. (Arabbarometer) January 30, 2023 2.3 Foreign Affairs & Security » Palestine/ Israel Conflict (Top)
780-21 Africans Want Age Limits For Government Heads, A Survey Among 34 African Nations (Click for Details) On average across 34 countries, three-quarters (76%) of Africans are in favour of a maximum age limit for heads of government. About the same percentage (74%) support minimum age limits for these chief public servants. Maximum age limits have majority support in all surveyed countries, exceeding nine out of 10 citizens in Mali (95%), Benin (94%), and Senegal (90%). Citizens’ views on what the minimum and maximum age limits should be vary widely. (Afrobarometer) 1 February 2023 1.3 Domestic Politics » Governance (Top)
TOPIC OF THE WEEK Africans Want Age Limits For Government Heads, A Survey Among 34 African Nations uThis page is devoted to opinions of countries whose polling activity is generally not known very widely or where a recent topical issue requires special attention.
Africans Want Age Limits For Government Heads, A Survey Among 34 African Nations Over the years, some policy actors have blamed aspects of African countries’ development challenges on the advanced ages of their leaders, though no theory or empirical evidence establishes such a relationship (Anoba, 2018; Sackey, 2021). The elections of Emmanuel Macron as president of France at age 39 (2017), Sebastian Kurz as chancellor of Austria at age 31 (2017), and Nayib Bukele as president of El Salvador at age 37 (2019) led some democracy watchers to wonder when Africa – the world’s youngest continent, with under35s making up about two-thirds of the population – will produce youthful presidents (Alim, 2019; Phekani, 2019). In all but one (Ethiopia) of the 28 African countries that chose presidents or prime ministers during the period 2018-2021, the winners were more than 50 years old (see Table A.2 in the Appendix for details). In 19 countries, the winners were above age 60, despite the participation of 27 under-50 candidates in those countries. As Nigeria prepares for elections in February 2023, the National Youths Union of Nigeria has reignited this discussion by calling on citizens to elect a president who is less than 60 years of age (Sahara Reporters, 2022). The 2019/2021 Afrobarometer Round 8 survey in 34 countries asked Africans whether they think their countries should have minimum and maximum age limits for heads of government, and if so, what these limits should be. Findings show that most Africans favour both minimum and maximum age limits for their leaders, though their views on what those limits should be vary greatly. Comparing the ages of incumbent leaders to citizens’ proposed age limits and to countries’ official retirement ages, we find that heads of government have exceeded average citizens’ maximum age limits in 15 of 34 countries, and have exceeded official retirement age in 23 countries. But citizens in 27 countries also tend to propose age limits for heads of state that exceed the official retirement age, suggesting that they aren’t opposed to retirement-age leaders. Key findings § On average across 34 countries, three-quarters (76%) of Africans are in favour of a maximum age limit for heads of government. About the same percentage (74%) support minimum age limits for these chief public servants. o Maximum age limits have majority support in all surveyed countries, exceeding nine out of 10 citizens in Mali (95%), Benin (94%), and Senegal (90%). § Citizens’ views on what the minimum and maximum age limits should be vary widely. o For a minimum age limit, the mean across 34 countries is 39 years, ranging from a low of 34 years in Morocco to a high of 42 years in Ghana, Guinea, Namibia, and Tanzania. The modal (most frequently cited) proposed minimum across 34 countries is 40 years, ranging from 30 years in the Gambia and Morocco to 40 years in 29 out of the 34 countries. o For a maximum age limit, the mean across 34 countries is 66 years, ranging from 58 years in Morocco to 72 years in Zimbabwe. The modal maximum age is 70 across the 34 countries. § Compared against the mean and modal minimum age limits proposed by survey respondents, the heads of governments in all 34 countries were old enough to qualify for the office. However, assessed against the mean maximum age limits proposed by citizens, heads of government in 15 countries were too old at the time of the survey to occupy their positions. § The ages of incumbent heads of government at the time of the survey exceeded their countries’ official retirement ages in 23 of the 34 surveyed countries. § However, the mean maximum age limits proposed by citizens were higher than the official retirement age in 27 countries, suggesting that despite strong support for age limits, many citizens are quite generous with respect to how old their heads of government can be. Do Africans support age limits for heads of government2? Among the 34 countries that Afrobarometer surveyed in 2019/2021, 28 have constitutional provisions for a minimum age for presidents or prime ministers.3 In contrast, only two set a maximum age limit, while incumbents in two other countries, with the support of the legislatures, have managed to abolish age limits to allow them to seek additional terms.4 When citizens are asked directly, three-fourths of them say they think their constitutions should provide for both minimum age limits (74% on average across 34 countries) and maximum age limits (75%) for their heads of government (Figure 1). Support for both types of age limits exceeds nine out of 10 citizens in Mali and Benin. It is weakest in Morocco and Eswatini, but even there half or more of all adults favour these limits. Countries expressing strong support for minimum age limits tend to do the same for maximum age limits. Eswatini and Lesotho are unusual in that in both countries, maximum age limits are 11 percentage points more popular than minimum age limits. Support for both types of age limits is strong across key demographic groups (Figure 2). What should the age limits be? When respondents who favour minimum and maximum age limits for presidents or prime ministers are asked what they think those limits should be, they offer a wide range of suggestions. One way to examine the results is to look at the proportions of respondents who favour certain age limits (Figure 3). For minimum age limits, 40 years is the most popular or modal choice (20%), followed by 35 (11%), 30 (11%), 50 (9%), and 45 (8%). For a maximum, 70 years gets the most votes (i.e. is the modal value) (18%), followed by 60 (16%) and a variety of ages under 60 (15%). About one in 10 respondents who favour a maximum age limit suggest it be set at 80 years (9%). All countries record a modal minimum age of 40 except Uganda, Kenya, and Cameroon, which has a modal minimum age of 35, and Morocco and the Gambia, with a modal minimum age of 30 (Figure 4). For the maximum age, 21 countries record 70 years as the most common response, while 60 years is the most common response in 11 countries. Another way to summarise citizens’ preferences with regard to a maximum age limit is to look at what proportion is likely to endorse a given age as a maximum limit (Figure 5). This assumes that a person who supports a given maximum limit (e.g. 60 years) would also endorse a higher maximum (e.g. 75 years) as preferable to having no maximum at all. Thus, on average across 34 countries, while only 31% would set the maximum limit at 60 years, a majority (57%) would endorse a limit of 70 years. Similarly, we can consider what proportion think a given age is too young to head a government. As shown in Figure 6, 73% of respondents would set the minimum age at 18 years or higher, and a majority (54%) would insist that a head of government be at least 35 years old. But only one in five (21%) would set the minimum age at 45 years or higher. Finally, a third way to interpret the findings is to calculate mean minimum and maximum ages for each country (Figure 7). The mean age is the average of all the ages suggested by all respondents (excluding those who did not want a minimum or maximum age, respectively). The mean (average) preferred minimum age across 34 countries is 39 years, very similar to the modal (most popular) minimum age of 40 years. The means of citizens’ proposed minimum age limits range from a low of 34 years in Morocco to a high of 42 years in Ghana, Guinea, Tanzania, and Namibia. The mean proposed minimum ages exceed 40 years in just seven countries. Across the 34 countries, the mean maximum age is 66 years. The mean maximums range from 58 years in Morocco to 72 years in Zimbabwe, with only six countries averaging 70 years or above. What proposed age limits imply for each country’s current leadership To examine what these proposed minimum and maximum ages would mean for current heads of government, we compare them to each leader’s age at the time of the Afrobarometer Round 8 survey. As we can see in Figure 8, the leader’s age exceeded the mean proposed minimum age in every country; the differences in years are detailed in Figure 9. For instance, President Paul Biya of Cameroon (the oldest) was 51 years older at the time of the survey than the country’s mean minimum age limit for a president, while Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali (the youngest) was 8 years older. Thus, considered against the mean minimum age limits suggested by citizens, all current heads of governments in the 34 countries would be old enough to qualify to occupy their positions. Heads of government are, however, older than the preferred maximum age in 15 countries, by margins ranging from one year (for President Ali Bongo Ondimba of Gabon) to 22 years (for President Biya of Cameroon) (Figure 10). Does support for maximum age limits signal rejection of gerontocracy? We have established strong public support for instituting maximum age limits for heads of government and seen that 15 incumbents had surpassed the mean preferred maximum at the time of the Round 8 surveys. Do these findings signal that Africans reject gerontocracy? We explore this question by comparing countries’ mean preferred maximum age limits and incumbents’ ages at the time of the survey to the countries’ mandatory ages of retirement from active public service,5 as displayed in Figure 11. At the time of our surveys, 23 heads of government were older than their country’s official retirement age. Margins range from one year (for Ali Bongo of Gabon, Julius Maada Bio of Sierra Leone, and the late John Magufuli of Tanzania) to 28 years for Cameroon’s Biya (Figure 12). Significantly, in 27 countries, the mean proposed maximum age limits for heads of government are higher than the official retirement ages. Differences range from one year in Angola to 28 years in Cameroon (Figure 13). In only five countries do the official retirement ages exceed the average preferred maximum age limits for heads of government – Lesotho, Morocco, Sudan, Ethiopia, and South Africa. These findings indicate that citizens are quite generous with their proposed maximum age limits. Africans’ support for age limits for heads of government does not appear to signal a rejection of older leaders. Conclusion Survey findings show that a large majority of Africans in 34 countries support the institution of minimum and maximum age limits for heads of government, though their suggested age limits vary widely. In most countries, the mean preferred maximum age is higher than the country’s official retirement age, suggesting that people are willing to let their heads of government serve until an older age – but not indefinitely. (Afrobarometer) 1 February 2023 Source: https://www.afrobarometer.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/AD599-PAP21-Africans-want-age-limits-but-not-opposed-to-retirement-age-leaders-Afrobarometer-Pan-Africa-Profile-31jan23.pdf (Top)
GILANI-GALLOPEDIA GLOBALITY INDEX: u The purpose of this index is to treat the Global Coverage by each issue of Gallopedia in terms of Population, National Income and estimated Power measured by G20 Membership.
GILANI-GALLOPEDIA GLOBALITY INDEX (Top)
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